Off-season Prediction Thread

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VikingsVictorious
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

Post by VikingsVictorious »

VikingLord wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:35 am Here's a dark horse at QB to watch in this year's draft - Carter Bradley out of South Alabama. He'd be something of a project and nobody would expect him to win the starting job, but he's put some good things on tape and shows the best development potential out of the unheralded QBs in this year's draft class IMHO. And the best part is, the Vikings could easily get him as late as the 6th round, although there is some potential he could move up into the 5th.

If KAM brings back Cousins, Bradley would be in a perfect situation where he could watch and learn and develop without any pressure. He has real potential from what I've seen, and there is generally one QB in every class who is overlooked for one reason or another and falls in the draft only to turn into a good or even really good starter as a pro. Bradley looks most likely to be that guy in this year's QB class to me.
Sounds good to me. Worth a shot as developmental QB.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

Post by CharVike »

VikingLord wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:35 am Here's a dark horse at QB to watch in this year's draft - Carter Bradley out of South Alabama. He'd be something of a project and nobody would expect him to win the starting job, but he's put some good things on tape and shows the best development potential out of the unheralded QBs in this year's draft class IMHO. And the best part is, the Vikings could easily get him as late as the 6th round, although there is some potential he could move up into the 5th.

If KAM brings back Cousins, Bradley would be in a perfect situation where he could watch and learn and develop without any pressure. He has real potential from what I've seen, and there is generally one QB in every class who is overlooked for one reason or another and falls in the draft only to turn into a good or even really good starter as a pro. Bradley looks most likely to be that guy in this year's QB class to me.
He's been mentioned and yes he will be in a good situation. We also have Hall who might come on. I'm not saying he will but they liked him enough to invest a pick. Sure he looked bad but how many later round guys even get on the field year 1. Plus our team at that point wasn't exactly a fine tuned machine.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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It's vewy, vewy quiet around here. Are we all hunting wabbit?
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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Just saw Sam Donald could be in line for a job here. Every QB walking is the next one in line. Zach Wilson will be the next one I guess. Haven't heard him yet. Him and Hall again like the college days. Saw Zimmer was hired by the Boys. Good for him. He is a good person. 2017 was his golden year and when Case hit Diggs with a great corner end zone TD I thought we were in. One of our former fan favorite Teddy retired. Only 31. Should be prime time not exit time. I think the Steelers will try for JJ Mac. Seems like a great fit for that team. They need a tough leader. JJ played hockey so you know he's tough and athletic.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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Will be interesting to see what they will do with Justin Jefferson. He wants to be paid at the top so your looking at 30+ mill a year. Saw an argument going both ways and one thing I didn't realize is we were 5-2 without him last year. Maybe in today's NFL a WR is a 5 year player then say goodbye. Depends on how the cap is managed. There's no doubt a WR is a team need. But if you can get a bunch of picks that's a team need also. Chiefs trading Hill made them better. Two straight SB wins without him. Bottom line it's not a team wrecker if they leave like losing your LT or Edge rusher would be. I'd rather get a bunch of picks to build the roster up. Addison can be number 1. JJ is a fan favorite so that also plays into it.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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CharVike wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:12 am Will be interesting to see what they will do with Justin Jefferson. He wants to be paid at the top so your looking at 30+ mill a year. Saw an argument going both ways and one thing I didn't realize is we were 5-2 without him last year. Maybe in today's NFL a WR is a 5 year player then say goodbye. Depends on how the cap is managed. There's no doubt a WR is a team need. But if you can get a bunch of picks that's a team need also. Chiefs trading Hill made them better. Two straight SB wins without him. Bottom line it's not a team wrecker if they leave like losing your LT or Edge rusher would be. I'd rather get a bunch of picks to build the roster up. Addison can be number 1. JJ is a fan favorite so that also plays into it.
I love watching him play but he's not being subtle at all in the amount he wants to get paid. "I want to break the bank" I believe is a direct quote. He's wanting to end up at about 32mil a year or more, I would assume. In his best season he had 128 receptions. That's $250k per catch if he replicates his best season. Would have been $363k per catch last season.

We're talking about the best WR in the league but does any receiver bring enough value to justify that must cap space? A position/player that touches the ball 6 or 7 times a game on average?
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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Cliff wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:08 am
CharVike wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:12 am Will be interesting to see what they will do with Justin Jefferson. He wants to be paid at the top so your looking at 30+ mill a year. Saw an argument going both ways and one thing I didn't realize is we were 5-2 without him last year. Maybe in today's NFL a WR is a 5 year player then say goodbye. Depends on how the cap is managed. There's no doubt a WR is a team need. But if you can get a bunch of picks that's a team need also. Chiefs trading Hill made them better. Two straight SB wins without him. Bottom line it's not a team wrecker if they leave like losing your LT or Edge rusher would be. I'd rather get a bunch of picks to build the roster up. Addison can be number 1. JJ is a fan favorite so that also plays into it.
I love watching him play but he's not being subtle at all in the amount he wants to get paid. "I want to break the bank" I believe is a direct quote. He's wanting to end up at about 32mil a year or more, I would assume. In his best season he had 128 receptions. That's $250k per catch if he replicates his best season. Would have been $363k per catch last season.

We're talking about the best WR in the league but does any receiver bring enough value to justify that must cap space? A position/player that touches the ball 6 or 7 times a game on average?
The value is the key. The good on our team is we have some depth at that position which was proved this past season. I'd prefer getting the picks. That can help build the overall roster which is always needed. Something is holding up the extension. We will know soon enough.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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I found this report on RealGM.

If Kirk Cousins lands elsewhere, the Minnesota Vikings could turn to someone like Sam Darnold in free agency, according to a report.

The report labeled Minnesota's likely quarterback target as a "more economical veteran."

Darnold, a former No. 3 overall pick, played minimally as Brock Purdy's backup with the San Francisco 49ers.

If Kirk is gone we are going to sink that low.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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I don’t envy kewsi one bit this offseason. I’m not getting a very good vibe about JJ and the money he wants maybe it’s all for show but regardless it’s going to be a haul. Being I can’t be fired I think I trade him for a pile of picks and players thinking reverse Hershel walker and roll with Mullens and one of rookies at the top of the draft. It should be something to see wildly entertaining or drafting very high again.

Safe bet is two more years of Kirk a rich JJ and a rookie JJ qb
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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Cliff wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:08 am
CharVike wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:12 am Will be interesting to see what they will do with Justin Jefferson. He wants to be paid at the top so your looking at 30+ mill a year. Saw an argument going both ways and one thing I didn't realize is we were 5-2 without him last year. Maybe in today's NFL a WR is a 5 year player then say goodbye. Depends on how the cap is managed. There's no doubt a WR is a team need. But if you can get a bunch of picks that's a team need also. Chiefs trading Hill made them better. Two straight SB wins without him. Bottom line it's not a team wrecker if they leave like losing your LT or Edge rusher would be. I'd rather get a bunch of picks to build the roster up. Addison can be number 1. JJ is a fan favorite so that also plays into it.
I love watching him play but he's not being subtle at all in the amount he wants to get paid. "I want to break the bank" I believe is a direct quote. He's wanting to end up at about 32mil a year or more, I would assume. In his best season he had 128 receptions. That's $250k per catch if he replicates his best season. Would have been $363k per catch last season.

We're talking about the best WR in the league but does any receiver bring enough value to justify that must cap space? A position/player that touches the ball 6 or 7 times a game on average?
There is a limited amount of cap space, so decisions about who to sign should always be framed in the context of the overall strategy of how KAM and KOC want to to build the team. Is JJ by himself worth x percent of the total cap? The answer to that question should depend on what the WR position group is worth to the total team. Maybe the amount JJ wants is 95% of the total amount the Vikings would spend on all WRs on the team in a given season. That means if they signed JJ for whatever that amount is, all the other WRs on the roster split the remaining 5% of that total. If JJ wants more than they'd allocate to the position group, then the money to pay JJ and field other WRs has to be deducted from other position groups.

Here's the real metric that matters IMHO - what are the successful teams in the NFL spending on their position groups? What are the teams that made the Superbowl this year spending at WR? At QB? Along their lines? Maybe they are lucky and have highly productive rookies at key positions who don't consume much cap, but the template should be based on what is proven to be successful and not some myopic focus on individual stats or high profile personalities. Football is still a team game and it takes an entire team to be successful, and that requires a sober look at how successful teams are structured. The fact remains the Vikings did not make the playoffs this last year, and that was with JJ and Cousins on the team at their current cap hits. If you pay JJ more of that cap, and/or you pay Cousins more of that cap, is that really going to move the team closer to the results produced by the proven models established by the already successful teams in the league?
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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A team to look at to move JJ would be the Panthers. They have no 1st rounder this year but we could start off with a 2 and 3. Also include next years 1st rounder which could be top 5 which is great. If they start #### about they need OL help offer up O'Neill and dump that cap hit. The guy gave up 6 sacks this year which is unacceptable. In the past he had seasons with 0 sacks. Those days appear to be over. I'm not knocking him but he is paid like a top LT. Many on here #### about that contract when it was given out. That was Speilman and his picks that made it he would over pay. We need to rid ourselves of those type of contracts. Darrisaw is coming up and we can't pay 2 LTs money for the position group. Unless you go with street guys at the other 3 position and that won't work. The Panthers are desperate and won't be in the 1st round this year take advantage of that while you can. Just a thought.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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JJ gets traded to Chargers for #5, #37, and 1st rd next year.
We resign Hunter and Cousins to 2 year extensions.
We draft Marvin Harrison Jr. after QBs go 3 of first 4 picks. We trade back and draft McCarthy as well.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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cmoss84 wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:01 pm JJ gets traded to Chargers for #5, #37, and 1st rd next year.
We resign Hunter and Cousins to 2 year extensions.
We draft Marvin Harrison Jr. after QBs go 3 of first 4 picks. We trade back and draft McCarthy as well.
That's an idea but there's a chance McCarthey flies up the board. I read a mock were Denver trades to 5 to take him. They want a QB bad. Payton is tired of the team 3 BS. The media prospects are in now but it will change once the combine is complete. We had 4 guys play over 1000 snaps on D and 3 of them were safeties. Be nice to get an extra body to take the load off. Maybe that's why we tailed off at the end. Trading JJ is a way for us to get capital now. Plus he's saying QB don't matter because he'll play his game no matter who is throwing. We couldn't score against the Raiders or the Bears. I think he needs a QB because he didn't do anything in those games. He's running his mouth and that gets old quick. I understand the Harrison hype but our D needs players. Look at that 11 we put out there. Give Flores a few guys. The Chargers also could stay put and get Harrison on a rookie deal. Rookie WRs seem to step in quickly in today's NFL. You can't cover them with the rules.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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VikingsVictorious wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2024 5:37 pm
J. Kapp 11 wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2024 4:51 pm
I know you didn't ask me, but ...

I think any of the top 3 are worth the move. Not sure about what the move the Vikings would make to do it, but I think they're worth it. Where you and I have a difference of opinion ... if I'm hearing you correctly, you seem to be saying that you shouldn't give up the capital to move from 11 to 3 unless it's an Andrew Luck-type talent. A sure thing. Perfectly valid. I don't feel the same way. I think at some point you have to go get the guy you want. And the absolute sure things are so rare that unless you actually have the No. 1 pick, it's virtually impossible to get that guy. Where I agree with you is that you shouldn't move up unless you, whoever you are, really believe the guy at 3 is going to have a good chance to succeed. Carolina apparently thought Bryce Young was worth it, even though most draft analysts disagreed. I'd hate to see the Vikings pull that kind of move. I just happen to believe the top 3 are all miles better than Young. I could be wrong.

My favorite of the 3 is Daniels. He's a 4.5 or better runner, he's got a great arm, and he's got incredible playmaking talent. His ceiling is extremely hight. He's just an amazing athlete. However, your belief is perfectly valid. If the Vikings stand pat at 11 and draft somebody who can actually make a difference, whatever the position, I'd be fine with that.

In other words, I believe what I believe, but I wouldn't die on a hill for it.

I'd also be OK with trading back and drafting somebody like Penix, Nix or McCarthy late in the first while pulling in some additional draft capital. For a long time I really liked Penix, but the problem with him is his lack of athleticism compared to Williams, Maye, Daniels, Nix and McCarthy. He's got an incredible arm and takes very few sacks, but he's not mobile. His lack of sacks comes from his ability to process and because he's fine throwing checkdowns. He scares me though ... what happens when things break down? What does he do? He really can't escape. I'd almost rather have Nix or McCarthy. Penix reminds me of Jared Goff with a better arm. Problem is, Goff succeeds because he's got the best O-line in the NFL protecting him. If he has to move off his spot, he's garbage. I'm afraid that's what Penix is, as well.

A lot of this depends on the Bears. Do they stick with Fields? Or do they trade Fields and draft Williams. If they stick with Fields, some dominoes begin to fall. One of the top 3 might be available as late as 5, but probably not later. The Giants (6), Titans (7) and Falcons (8) would be likely to draft one of those guys if the Bears stick with Fields, so you'd have to jump them. Something tells me Fields is done and that's all moot, but stranger things have happened.

We'll see. It's going to be interesting.
Can you give me your confidence level in Daniels? Are you 75% confident that he will grow into as good a QB as Kirk or better? Isn't he Kyler Murray 2.0? That wouldn't be bad, but would it be good enough?

By the way. Check throughout the years to see what kind of QBs are sacked the most. You will find out it's the mobile ones. On the other hand the mobile ones pull some great plays out of their #### a lot more often than the immobile ones.
I can’t give a number on confidence level because, as you’ve pointed out, the draft is an inexact science. As good as Kirk? Can’t say, but I believe it’s moot. Even if the Vikings extend Kirk, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be a Viking for more than two years, primarily because of his age. I’m not looking at two years. I’m hoping for 12.

I’m confident he can be more effective — eventually. He might not be as efficient, especially in the beginning, but he’ll likely be able to make plays Kirk would never attempt. No, I don’t see him as Kyler Murray 2.0. For one thing, Daniels is 6-4, while Murray is 5-10 if we’re being generous. That means he should be more effective in the pocket. He’s likely a better runner than Murray (about the same speed) although I’m not sure I want my QB running like Lamar Jackson. Murray has a great arm, but Daniels’ might be stronger. Where I would hope Daniels is better is in his dedication to his profession. That’s been a source of controversy with Murray. Some say it’s overblown, but I disagree. Teams don’t put film-study clauses in $200-million contracts for no reason. However, a man’s dedication to his craft is something that’s hard to know until he’s in the building, so when it comes to Daniels, who knows?

Here’s the thing … why are we comparing Daniels and Cousins?

I’m about winning. The question is WHEN? If the Vikings keep Cousins, then they’d better be all about winning now because you’ve only got a couple years of him. For me, that means NOT drafting a QB high. Too many holes in the roster to burn your top draft asset on someone who’s going to sit until after Kirk is gone.

We shouldn’t be comparing Daniels to Cousins. We should be figuring out who’s under center if it’s not Kirk.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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cmoss84 wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:01 pm JJ gets traded to Chargers for #5, #37, and 1st rd next year.
We resign Hunter and Cousins to 2 year extensions.
We draft Marvin Harrison Jr. after QBs go 3 of first 4 picks. We trade back and draft McCarthy as well.
JJ for two first rounders and a 2nd rounder? Sign me up for that! :rock:

However, I don't think there is any way JJ would fetch that much. You could probably trade JJ for a 1st round pick this year, maybe even for a pick as high as #5, but that would be about it since whatever team makes that trade still has to sign a top-dollar extension and that makes him arguably less attractive unless the team making the trade believes they can get a better long-term deal with him compared to what they might get if he hits free agency after this season.

The other option the Vikings have with JJ is to let him play out this season and then franchise him. Not a great situation to be in, but it might be a way to keep costs in line beyond the end of his rookie deal if he wants a massive payday, or, at the very least, give them some leverage in trade negotiations.

I doubt KAM or KOC wants to trade JJ. I think they'll try to sign him, but I also think JJ is interested in winning, and winning with the Vikings depends in large part on who is behind center next season. I believe JJ wants Cousins back, and if the Vikings don't intend to bring Cousins back and instead try their luck in FA or the draft to solve the issue at QB, that makes a trade of JJ much more likely and makes much more sense to me.

It really does come down to whether the Vikings believe they can realistically compete next year. If they do, it makes sense to double down on key players like JJ and Cousins. If they don't, it makes sense to move on from those players and stock up on draft picks and younger prospects. I believe KAM and KOC believe they can compete.