Off-season Prediction Thread

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VikingsVictorious
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

Post by VikingsVictorious »

Cliff wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 1:09 pm
VikingsVictorious wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 9:37 am
When you say think can be the guy what does that really mean. Does think equal 95% likely or 15% likely? If I'm using our first round pick I need to at least feel like it's odds on.
High enough percentage for KOC to bet his head coaching job on him, because that's likely what he'd be doing if they trade up into the top 3 picks.
I don't think that QB exists in this draft. I mean with flawless drafting he probably does, but one you can draft with confidence? I don't see it.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

Post by Cliff »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 3:49 pm
Cliff wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 1:09 pm

High enough percentage for KOC to bet his head coaching job on him, because that's likely what he'd be doing if they trade up into the top 3 picks.
I don't think that QB exists in this draft. I mean with flawless drafting he probably does, but one you can draft with confidence? I don't see it.
I guess we'll find up when they do or don't move up for one.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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Cliff wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2024 10:25 am
VikingsVictorious wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 3:49 pm
I don't think that QB exists in this draft. I mean with flawless drafting he probably does, but one you can draft with confidence? I don't see it.
I guess we'll find up when they do or don't move up for one.
How about you. Are you confident in any one QB in this draft that you would stick your neck out and say for certain this guy will be a star?
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

Post by J. Kapp 11 »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2024 2:59 pm
Cliff wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2024 10:25 am

I guess we'll find up when they do or don't move up for one.
How about you. Are you confident in any one QB in this draft that you would stick your neck out and say for certain this guy will be a star?
I know you didn't ask me, but ...

I think any of the top 3 are worth the move. Not sure about what the move the Vikings would make to do it, but I think they're worth it. Where you and I have a difference of opinion ... if I'm hearing you correctly, you seem to be saying that you shouldn't give up the capital to move from 11 to 3 unless it's an Andrew Luck-type talent. A sure thing. Perfectly valid. I don't feel the same way. I think at some point you have to go get the guy you want. And the absolute sure things are so rare that unless you actually have the No. 1 pick, it's virtually impossible to get that guy. Where I agree with you is that you shouldn't move up unless you, whoever you are, really believe the guy at 3 is going to have a good chance to succeed. Carolina apparently thought Bryce Young was worth it, even though most draft analysts disagreed. I'd hate to see the Vikings pull that kind of move. I just happen to believe the top 3 are all miles better than Young. I could be wrong.

My favorite of the 3 is Daniels. He's a 4.5 or better runner, he's got a great arm, and he's got incredible playmaking talent. His ceiling is extremely hight. He's just an amazing athlete. However, your belief is perfectly valid. If the Vikings stand pat at 11 and draft somebody who can actually make a difference, whatever the position, I'd be fine with that.

In other words, I believe what I believe, but I wouldn't die on a hill for it.

I'd also be OK with trading back and drafting somebody like Penix, Nix or McCarthy late in the first while pulling in some additional draft capital. For a long time I really liked Penix, but the problem with him is his lack of athleticism compared to Williams, Maye, Daniels, Nix and McCarthy. He's got an incredible arm and takes very few sacks, but he's not mobile. His lack of sacks comes from his ability to process and because he's fine throwing checkdowns. He scares me though ... what happens when things break down? What does he do? He really can't escape. I'd almost rather have Nix or McCarthy. Penix reminds me of Jared Goff with a better arm. Problem is, Goff succeeds because he's got the best O-line in the NFL protecting him. If he has to move off his spot, he's garbage. I'm afraid that's what Penix is, as well.

A lot of this depends on the Bears. Do they stick with Fields? Or do they trade Fields and draft Williams. If they stick with Fields, some dominoes begin to fall. One of the top 3 might be available as late as 5, but probably not later. The Giants (6), Titans (7) and Falcons (8) would be likely to draft one of those guys if the Bears stick with Fields, so you'd have to jump them. Something tells me Fields is done and that's all moot, but stranger things have happened.

We'll see. It's going to be interesting.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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If the Bears stick with Fields that doesn't mean they stay at #1. A qb is being taken #1 imho, just a question on which team it is.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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VikingsVictorious wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2024 2:59 pm
Cliff wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2024 10:25 am

I guess we'll find up when they do or don't move up for one.
How about you. Are you confident in any one QB in this draft that you would stick your neck out and say for certain this guy will be a star?
No, I know very little about college ball but even if I did I have been watching the draft a long time and I don't think a "sure thing" exists. If you say don't move up for one of the more talented QBs, and you say don't "reach" on a QB and draft BPA, you're basically saying never draft a QB in the first round.

If they keep waiting for conditions to be perfect the team is always going to have to make due with "left overs". Second tier draft day QBs, expensive and/or only average free agent QBs. I'm just tired of it. You've got to take a shot.

Meanwhile, how much are those draft picks worth really? In 2013 the Vikings had 3 first round picks and ended up with Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, and Cordarrelle Patterson. The next year they got Barr and Bridgewater. The next year is Trae Waynes. The next year is Laquon Treadwell. They didn't have a 1st in 2017 because they traded it after Bridgewater's injury. 2018 they get Mike Hughes. That's 7 out of 8 1st round picks (Barr being the exception) that didn't pan out for whatever reason.

The next few years they do much better. Bradbury, Jefferson, Darrisaw, Cine, and Addison. That's a better hit rate and you could lose out on players like that but if they've got a shot at a QB that is agreed to be a top-tier draft QB I say take it. It's more likely they're missing out on the next Trae Waynes than the next Justin Jefferson.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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Cliff wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2024 10:33 am
VikingsVictorious wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2024 2:59 pm
How about you. Are you confident in any one QB in this draft that you would stick your neck out and say for certain this guy will be a star?
No, I know very little about college ball but even if I did I have been watching the draft a long time and I don't think a "sure thing" exists. If you say don't move up for one of the more talented QBs, and you say don't "reach" on a QB and draft BPA, you're basically saying never draft a QB in the first round.

If they keep waiting for conditions to be perfect the team is always going to have to make due with "left overs". Second tier draft day QBs, expensive and/or only average free agent QBs. I'm just tired of it. You've got to take a shot.

Meanwhile, how much are those draft picks worth really? In 2013 the Vikings had 3 first round picks and ended up with Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, and Cordarrelle Patterson. The next year they got Barr and Bridgewater. The next year is Trae Waynes. The next year is Laquon Treadwell. They didn't have a 1st in 2017 because they traded it after Bridgewater's injury. 2018 they get Mike Hughes. That's 7 out of 8 1st round picks (Barr being the exception) that didn't pan out for whatever reason.

The next few years they do much better. Bradbury, Jefferson, Darrisaw, Cine, and Addison. That's a better hit rate and you could lose out on players like that but if they've got a shot at a QB that is agreed to be a top-tier draft QB I say take it. It's more likely they're missing out on the next Trae Waynes than the next Justin Jefferson.
IIRC you said only move up if you know the QB will be a franchise QB or very similar to that. Or was that Kapp? Now it seems you're saying just give it a shot and hope for the best. I can't support giving up what it would take to draft in the top 3 for a guy that I think might be good. I do pretty much have to know and that is an Andrew Luck or Joe Burrow. Not a Williams, Maye or Daniels.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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J. Kapp 11 wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2024 4:51 pm
VikingsVictorious wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2024 2:59 pm
How about you. Are you confident in any one QB in this draft that you would stick your neck out and say for certain this guy will be a star?
I know you didn't ask me, but ...

I think any of the top 3 are worth the move. Not sure about what the move the Vikings would make to do it, but I think they're worth it. Where you and I have a difference of opinion ... if I'm hearing you correctly, you seem to be saying that you shouldn't give up the capital to move from 11 to 3 unless it's an Andrew Luck-type talent. A sure thing. Perfectly valid. I don't feel the same way. I think at some point you have to go get the guy you want. And the absolute sure things are so rare that unless you actually have the No. 1 pick, it's virtually impossible to get that guy. Where I agree with you is that you shouldn't move up unless you, whoever you are, really believe the guy at 3 is going to have a good chance to succeed. Carolina apparently thought Bryce Young was worth it, even though most draft analysts disagreed. I'd hate to see the Vikings pull that kind of move. I just happen to believe the top 3 are all miles better than Young. I could be wrong.

My favorite of the 3 is Daniels. He's a 4.5 or better runner, he's got a great arm, and he's got incredible playmaking talent. His ceiling is extremely hight. He's just an amazing athlete. However, your belief is perfectly valid. If the Vikings stand pat at 11 and draft somebody who can actually make a difference, whatever the position, I'd be fine with that.

In other words, I believe what I believe, but I wouldn't die on a hill for it.

I'd also be OK with trading back and drafting somebody like Penix, Nix or McCarthy late in the first while pulling in some additional draft capital. For a long time I really liked Penix, but the problem with him is his lack of athleticism compared to Williams, Maye, Daniels, Nix and McCarthy. He's got an incredible arm and takes very few sacks, but he's not mobile. His lack of sacks comes from his ability to process and because he's fine throwing checkdowns. He scares me though ... what happens when things break down? What does he do? He really can't escape. I'd almost rather have Nix or McCarthy. Penix reminds me of Jared Goff with a better arm. Problem is, Goff succeeds because he's got the best O-line in the NFL protecting him. If he has to move off his spot, he's garbage. I'm afraid that's what Penix is, as well.

A lot of this depends on the Bears. Do they stick with Fields? Or do they trade Fields and draft Williams. If they stick with Fields, some dominoes begin to fall. One of the top 3 might be available as late as 5, but probably not later. The Giants (6), Titans (7) and Falcons (8) would be likely to draft one of those guys if the Bears stick with Fields, so you'd have to jump them. Something tells me Fields is done and that's all moot, but stranger things have happened.

We'll see. It's going to be interesting.
Can you give me your confidence level in Daniels? Are you 75% confident that he will grow into as good a QB as Kirk or better? Isn't he Kyler Murray 2.0? That wouldn't be bad, but would it be good enough?

By the way. Check throughout the years to see what kind of QBs are sacked the most. You will find out it's the mobile ones. On the other hand the mobile ones pull some great plays out of their #### a lot more often than the immobile ones.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

Post by CharVike »

Here is the Sporting news top 100.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/new ... 8c439568a0
At 11 there will be some potential dominate players. This class appears much deeper than most. Some WRs and OT will fly off the board before our pick. The top TE will go early. We could get the top edge rusher.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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CharVike wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2024 6:53 pm Here is the Sporting news top 100.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/new ... 8c439568a0
At 11 there will be some potential dominate players. This class appears much deeper than most. Some WRs and OT will fly off the board before our pick. The top TE will go early. We could get the top edge rusher.
They have Daniels as the 11th best prospect, but being a QB he will go earlier. My ideal draft is we get Dallas Turner at 11 and trade into the late first round for JJ McCarthy. Might as well corner the market on JJs.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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VikingsVictorious wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2024 5:32 pm I can't support giving up what it would take to draft in the top 3 for a guy that I think might be good. I do pretty much have to know and that is an Andrew Luck or Joe Burrow. Not a Williams, Maye or Daniels.
I agree with you on this, but it also depends on the price they'd have to pay to move up. I think it will be way too expensive to justify based on what is known about the 3 top QB prospects in this year's draft.

If KAM takes a swing at a rookie QB it will be with the 2nd rounder he currently holds or the 1st he gets in a trade back. In that scenario we're looking at one of Nix, Penix or McCarthy unless another QB finds a way into the 2nd tier of this year's QB prospects.

If KAM stays put at #11 he'll should find an immediate impact starter at DE, DT or CB available. It will be hard for KAM to screw things up if he stays put and takes BPA. It will be much easier for him to screw things up by making a risky bet that its worth trading up.

If KAM trades back he has to get value out of it, and based on what he did in his first draft I'm not convinced he would. But a move like that could benefit the team depending both on the additional pick(s) he gets as well as who he takes with that extra pick or picks.

My prediction is he holds at #11 and takes either Verse or Turner. If either or both are gone he could also take Latu. There is an outside (~10%) chance he could take a CB like DeJean or Arnold there, although I like the DE talent at the top of this year's draft much more than the CB talent in terms of ceiling and potential to make an immediate impact.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

Post by CharVike »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2024 7:00 pm
CharVike wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2024 6:53 pm Here is the Sporting news top 100.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/new ... 8c439568a0
At 11 there will be some potential dominate players. This class appears much deeper than most. Some WRs and OT will fly off the board before our pick. The top TE will go early. We could get the top edge rusher.
They have Daniels as the 11th best prospect, but being a QB he will go earlier. My ideal draft is we get Dallas Turner at 11 and trade into the late first round for JJ McCarthy. Might as well corner the market on JJs.
I'd take that draft you just posted. This seems to be a deep draft. The best guard in the draft will be on the board in the 2nd. QBs do get drafted early. It's a draw for the fan base even if the guy sucks. This will be the same as most drafts. It will produced one good starter. I have no idea who that will be. None of the teams do either. If they did the guy would be locked in already. I know if I was a QB I'd tell that Giant team don't pick me. They gave up 85 sacks. That's a beat down. Same with the Panthers a beat down. Your a bust before you take a snap. Burrow is gone through it also. Bad way to run a team IMO. JJ hits JJ. Sounds good.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

Post by Cliff »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2024 5:32 pm
Cliff wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2024 10:33 am

No, I know very little about college ball but even if I did I have been watching the draft a long time and I don't think a "sure thing" exists. If you say don't move up for one of the more talented QBs, and you say don't "reach" on a QB and draft BPA, you're basically saying never draft a QB in the first round.

If they keep waiting for conditions to be perfect the team is always going to have to make due with "left overs". Second tier draft day QBs, expensive and/or only average free agent QBs. I'm just tired of it. You've got to take a shot.

Meanwhile, how much are those draft picks worth really? In 2013 the Vikings had 3 first round picks and ended up with Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, and Cordarrelle Patterson. The next year they got Barr and Bridgewater. The next year is Trae Waynes. The next year is Laquon Treadwell. They didn't have a 1st in 2017 because they traded it after Bridgewater's injury. 2018 they get Mike Hughes. That's 7 out of 8 1st round picks (Barr being the exception) that didn't pan out for whatever reason.

The next few years they do much better. Bradbury, Jefferson, Darrisaw, Cine, and Addison. That's a better hit rate and you could lose out on players like that but if they've got a shot at a QB that is agreed to be a top-tier draft QB I say take it. It's more likely they're missing out on the next Trae Waynes than the next Justin Jefferson.
IIRC you said only move up if you know the QB will be a franchise QB or very similar to that. Or was that Kapp? Now it seems you're saying just give it a shot and hope for the best. I can't support giving up what it would take to draft in the top 3 for a guy that I think might be good. I do pretty much have to know and that is an Andrew Luck or Joe Burrow. Not a Williams, Maye or Daniels.
I don't *think* I said I would want to "know". I thought I was pretty clear and made comments like "I don't think a sure thing exists in the draft". If I gave the impression I wanted them to have certainty then that wasn't my intention. I very much want them to take a shot knowing it may not work out.

I want them to get a guy they think has the potential to be great. One that there is a near-consensus agreement that he's a "top prospect". Doesn't have to be #1 overall, but a QB that is actually a high first round rated guy. I'd like to see them make a move to make that happen.

If they don't or can't move up they'll probably move down to try to recoup their 3rd round pick and take who they think is the best of the "left over" QBs. Again.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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Cliff wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:41 am
VikingsVictorious wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2024 5:32 pm
IIRC you said only move up if you know the QB will be a franchise QB or very similar to that. Or was that Kapp? Now it seems you're saying just give it a shot and hope for the best. I can't support giving up what it would take to draft in the top 3 for a guy that I think might be good. I do pretty much have to know and that is an Andrew Luck or Joe Burrow. Not a Williams, Maye or Daniels.
I don't *think* I said I would want to "know". I thought I was pretty clear and made comments like "I don't think a sure thing exists in the draft". If I gave the impression I wanted them to have certainty then that wasn't my intention. I very much want them to take a shot knowing it may not work out.

I want them to get a guy they think has the potential to be great. One that there is a near-consensus agreement that he's a "top prospect". Doesn't have to be #1 overall, but a QB that is actually a high first round rated guy. I'd like to see them make a move to make that happen.

If they don't or can't move up they'll probably move down to try to recoup their 3rd round pick and take who they think is the best of the "left over" QBs. Again.
My secondary point is I don't think trading away draft picks is as detrimental to the team as some make it seem. You don't want to just flush all of your draft picks down the toilet but that's not what this trade would be.

The team needs to stop taking half measures and invest in what is by far the most important position. Justin Jefferson is an awesome player but consider his importance compared to QB. Not only does the QB have to actually get him the ball in the first place, but on average he touches the ball 6 or 7 times a game. He's awesome because of what he can do in those touches and the attention he gets even when he's not the target, but his position on an individual player level is only involved so much in the game.

The team is about to invest very, very heavily on a weapon with nobody on the roster that can properly use it. They need to invest heavily to try to fix that. I think investing draft picks is the way to go but if they invest FA money in Kirk without getting a "QB of the future" then I'll be disappointed, but I do think the team will be watchable with him.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

Post by VikingLord »

Here's a dark horse at QB to watch in this year's draft - Carter Bradley out of South Alabama. He'd be something of a project and nobody would expect him to win the starting job, but he's put some good things on tape and shows the best development potential out of the unheralded QBs in this year's draft class IMHO. And the best part is, the Vikings could easily get him as late as the 6th round, although there is some potential he could move up into the 5th.

If KAM brings back Cousins, Bradley would be in a perfect situation where he could watch and learn and develop without any pressure. He has real potential from what I've seen, and there is generally one QB in every class who is overlooked for one reason or another and falls in the draft only to turn into a good or even really good starter as a pro. Bradley looks most likely to be that guy in this year's QB class to me.