CharVike wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:20 pm
StumpHunter wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:15 pm
I am trying to think of any team since Indy who got the #1 overall pick and won a SB in large part because of it.
It would be interesting to look at how many teams got the #1 pick was drafting in the top 3 again a couple of seasons later and how many were in the playoffs.
Didn't Johnson win a couple? I'm not saying having the 1st pick is a guaranteed SB but I will tell you this and have seen it in practice for decades having stiff after stiff after stiff at QB gives you very little chance if any at all. That's been proven. Even when we had perhaps our greatest D 1970 we had nothing at QB which did us in as it also did in 71. I could go on but we have all seen it.
Having a higher pick just guarantees a team gets its pick of the litter, but not necessarily the best pup in the litter. Whether that increases the chances of getting the best pup depends mostly on the team's ability to evaluate the pups and probably a healthy dose of luck to go along with that.
The truth is, its extremely difficult to project college QBs, and, for that matter, most college prospects, because a lot of what a given prospect needs to succeed is not something that can be objectively measured, and even when it can be objectively measured, it sometimes isn't obvious how those measurables will play out over time. So much of pro success comes down to how hard a given player works on their individual game and overall understanding of the game. A lot comes down to how they work with their teammates and coaches too, along with the situations and schemes they find themselves playing. You can take a QB out of college who has every possible measurable you could dream up, but if the guy is lazy or arrogant or dumb, his chances of succeeding in the pros is low. Or you can take a guy who otherwise personally has the things you want physically and is a hard worker, but he's thrust onto a crappy team or has a bad coach and he just can't overcome either of those things. He gets pummeled into the ground repeatedly or is handcuffed in terms of what he is allowed to do and pretty soon he's gun shy or a flop. You get guys who come in unheralded and work their behinds off to get better, while others come in heralded and content and never do more than ride on their reputations coming out of college.
So many variables involved that I think it's really poor strategy to think tanking in a given season really improves the chances of future success. More than likely tanking engenders a losing attitude in the rest of the team. Good players who reach free agency won't want to play for a team that tanks, free agents will be less likely to consider signing with a team like that, and newly drafted players will be less likely to put into a position where they can maximize their talents and have success. Chronic losing can infect a team.
There might be a rare draft prospect who is worth that risk and paying a price like that. The last one I can think of was probably Andrew Luck, and he never sniffed a Superbowl and is out of football now.
If the Vikings are going to change their fortunes at QB they'll need to do a good job of comprehensively evaluating QB prospects in as many ways as they can (physical ability, progression in college, talking to college coaches and teammates, personality, leadership, responsibility, etc.) and then be willing to make a move to get a guy if they're sold on him regardless of how the draft sets up for them in a given year. Either that or hope to find that rare prospect that is blooming in a backup role via trade or free agency and snag him before the team that has him fully realizes what they have.
The biggest part of it is just accepting reality if the guy you have is not the guy you need. That, more than anything I think, is the biggest hurdle most teams have to get over, especially when a GM or head coach is personally invested in the outcome because they picked or signed the wrong guy and have to admit they were wrong.