WRs in Draft

[VikingLord]

If Spielman is so inclined to do something bold, I'd rather he go all the way and get Tua or Herbert.

Yeah I’ll pass.

1.) we’d have to trade within the top 10 to do that vs 10-14 for lamb or Jeudy. That means the asking price is that much more.

2.) I’ve said before we have way to many spots to fill and have a solid QB already in place. To trade up that far, give up that much just to get a guy that’s going to sit and lose other valuable draft picks just makes zero sense to me

3.) chances are, the cost of that would be both firsts, our second and probably more. So we wouldn’t be picking until let’s say the 3rd and filled zero holes. From the 3rd round on we’d have to find ways to fill CB (x2 possibly), WR, DT, DE, and OG (x2). Good luck

I've seen mocks where one or both of Herbert and Tua slide. Neither are sure things and its very possible one or both of them slip into that 10-14 range, especially Tua since teams can't confirm he is medically sound. Not saying this is likely that one or both slide, but it is possible, just as it's possible one or both of Lamb or Jeudy go in the top 10. Regardless, you're still talking about a bold move up. To get near the 10th pick is probably going to require both 1st rounders. The price to move up to #5 is more, but if you're convinced the player you get there is your franchise QB, it's really not THAT much more in the big scheme of things.

As to your 2nd point, Cousins is in place for 2 more seasons. His final year is voidable as I understand it. That is hardly a long term commitment on his or the Vikings' part at this point, and in terms of that bigger picture mentioned before, giving your franchise QB a year to sit and learn and develop while remaining competitive in the near term is sound strategy.

It seems a little odd to argue that it would take too much draft capital to move up to get your long term franchise QB on one hand and then turn around to argue that it because it would take slightly less draft capital to move up to get your long term #1 WR its OK because it will cost slightly less. The argument makes sense only when looked at from the perspective of immediate need (as in, the Vikings have their QB position locked up right now while they lack at WR with the departure of Diggs), but remember the draft after the Vikings traded Randy Moss. They went into that draft lacking a clear #1 WR due to the trade and also had an immediate need at DE. The QB position was "locked up" at the time, so no immediate need there. And they went on to draft Troy Williamson to replace Moss and Erasmus James to fill the DE need while ignoring Aaron Rodgers at QB *twice*. They didn't even have to make a trade to get him in that draft, either. They could have taken him just holding pat. We see how that worked out.

The draft is about the long-term view and adding the best possible talent to the team for that longer term. GM's who understand that thrive. GM's who see the draft as a way to plug immediate holes tend to fail unless they get really lucky.

I for one will be disappointed if the Vikings trade up to get a WR in this draft. Both lines need too much work to go after a flashy skill player in my view. As I'm not sold on a QB in this draft either, I'd personally they hold or even trade down and stock up both lines in the early rounds.

[VikingLord]

Herbert will never be as good as Cousins and those trades didn't cost much of anything compared to what it would cost us to move up to 2 and those teams weren't in need of as many holes being filled. Goff is not anywhere close to Cousins ability. Trading up for Tua unless he slides way down would devastate us.

None of what you posted is a fact. Herbert will never be as good as Cousins? Goff is not anywhere close to Cousins' ability? Trading up for Tua ... would devastate us?

I could easily say the same about Diggs and Jeudy/Lamb and it would be every bit as valid at this point in their respective careers.

Cousins is a good QB who will generally not let the team down when everything is clicking well. Put him on a stacked team with a great offensive line, solid running game, and good receivers and the team will win more often than not. Put him on a team with less than that and he'll likely struggle when those around him struggle. I don't know that I would call him a franchise QB. He's a solid QB and nothing more, and I think he's hit his ceiling.

[VikingsVictorious]

Yeah I’ll pass.

1.) we’d have to trade within the top 10 to do that vs 10-14 for lamb or Jeudy. That means the asking price is that much more.

2.) I’ve said before we have way to many spots to fill and have a solid QB already in place. To trade up that far, give up that much just to get a guy that’s going to sit and lose other valuable draft picks just makes zero sense to me

3.) chances are, the cost of that would be both firsts, our second and probably more. So we wouldn’t be picking until let’s say the 3rd and filled zero holes. From the 3rd round on we’d have to find ways to fill CB (x2 possibly), WR, DT, DE, and OG (x2). Good luck

I've seen mocks where one or both of Herbert and Tua slide. Neither are sure things and its very possible one or both of them slip into that 10-14 range, especially Tua since teams can't confirm he is medically sound. Not saying this is likely that one or both slide, but it is possible, just as it's possible one or both of Lamb or Jeudy go in the top 10. Regardless, you're still talking about a bold move up. To get near the 10th pick is probably going to require both 1st rounders. The price to move up to #5 is more, but if you're convinced the player you get there is your franchise QB, it's really not THAT much more in the big scheme of things.

As to your 2nd point, Cousins is in place for 2 more seasons. His final year is voidable as I understand it. That is hardly a long term commitment on his or the Vikings' part at this point, and in terms of that bigger picture mentioned before, giving your franchise QB a year to sit and learn and develop while remaining competitive in the near term is sound strategy.

It seems a little odd to argue that it would take too much draft capital to move up to get your long term franchise QB on one hand and then turn around to argue that it because it would take slightly less draft capital to move up to get your long term #1 WR its OK because it will cost slightly less. The argument makes sense only when looked at from the perspective of immediate need (as in, the Vikings have their QB position locked up right now while they lack at WR with the departure of Diggs), but remember the draft after the Vikings traded Randy Moss. They went into that draft lacking a clear #1 WR due to the trade and also had an immediate need at DE. The QB position was "locked up" at the time, so no immediate need there. And they went on to draft Troy Williamson to replace Moss and Erasmus James to fill the DE need while ignoring Aaron Rodgers at QB *twice*. They didn't even have to make a trade to get him in that draft, either. They could have taken him just holding pat. We see how that worked out.

The draft is about the long-term view and adding the best possible talent to the team for that longer term. GM's who understand that thrive. GM's who see the draft as a way to plug immediate holes tend to fail unless they get really lucky.

I for one will be disappointed if the Vikings trade up to get a WR in this draft. Both lines need too much work to go after a flashy skill player in my view. As I'm not sold on a QB in this draft either, I'd personally they hold or even trade down and stock up both lines in the early rounds.

Herbert isn't that good. If Tua Slides it is probably for good reason or it could just be cowardice. If Tua slides and we can get him for 22 & 58 I'm OK with that. If he doesn't slide and it costs us 22-25-58-89 and our next years FRP that would set us back too much.

[VikingLord]

Herbert isn't that good. If Tua Slides it is probably for good reason or it could just be cowardice. If Tua slides and we can get him for 22 & 58 I'm OK with that. If he doesn't slide and it costs us 22-25-58-89 and our next years FRP that would set us back too much.

I don't think the Vikings should trade up in this draft for anyone. Not for Tua, Herbert, Jeudy or Lamb. This is a good year to stock up on OL/DL talent in the early rounds IMHO, and I'd much prefer Spielman stay pat or even trade back a bit to accomplish that.

But the only way to understand the value of any of these players is to wait and see how they turn out in the pros. If Tua becomes the next Tom Brady and enjoys that level of long term success, I'd argue the cost you listed was small by comparison. It's all relative, and unfortunately, impossible to know at this point.

[VikingsVictorious]

Herbert will never be as good as Cousins and those trades didn't cost much of anything compared to what it would cost us to move up to 2 and those teams weren't in need of as many holes being filled. Goff is not anywhere close to Cousins ability. Trading up for Tua unless he slides way down would devastate us.

None of what you posted is a fact. Herbert will never be as good as Cousins? Goff is not anywhere close to Cousins' ability? Trading up for Tua ... would devastate us?

I could easily say the same about Diggs and Jeudy/Lamb and it would be every bit as valid at this point in their respective careers.

Cousins is a good QB who will generally not let the team down when everything is clicking well. Put him on a stacked team with a great offensive line, solid running game, and good receivers and the team will win more often than not. Put him on a team with less than that and he'll likely struggle when those around him struggle. I don't know that I would call him a franchise QB. He's a solid QB and nothing more, and I think he's hit his ceiling.

Cousins is very capable of winning a super bowl. That's good enough for me. I'm not looking for his replacement. How many QBs have won a Super Bowl on their rookie contract. Mahomes check. Who else? Goff is terrible. Had one magic year. It's not a fact that Herbert will never be as good as Cousins. It's my opinion. I'm not going to type IMO in front of everything I say when it's obvious. Top QBs from last year Jones and Haskins will never be as good as Cousins. Before you make a big trade up for a QB you better be very damn sure that QB is going to be great. I'm damn sure that Lamb is going to be great so I would be willing to trade 25 and 58 for him.

[VikingsVictorious]

Herbert isn't that good. If Tua Slides it is probably for good reason or it could just be cowardice. If Tua slides and we can get him for 22 & 58 I'm OK with that. If he doesn't slide and it costs us 22-25-58-89 and our next years FRP that would set us back too much.

I don't think the Vikings should trade up in this draft for anyone. Not for Tua, Herbert, Jeudy or Lamb. This is a good year to stock up on OL/DL talent in the early rounds IMHO, and I'd much prefer Spielman stay pat or even trade back a bit to accomplish that.

But the only way to understand the value of any of these players is to wait and see how they turn out in the pros. If Tua becomes the next Tom Brady and enjoys that level of long term success, I'd argue the cost you listed was small by comparison. It's all relative, and unfortunately, impossible to know at this point.

We could have had Brady for a 5th round draft pick and he had ties to Minnesota. So why trade all that to get Brady II when Brady I went for a 6th round pick. We can play this game all day. IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................If
Yes it's impossible to know. We are making our best educated guesses.

[StumpHunter]

None of what you posted is a fact. Herbert will never be as good as Cousins? Goff is not anywhere close to Cousins' ability? Trading up for Tua ... would devastate us?

I could easily say the same about Diggs and Jeudy/Lamb and it would be every bit as valid at this point in their respective careers.

Cousins is a good QB who will generally not let the team down when everything is clicking well. Put him on a stacked team with a great offensive line, solid running game, and good receivers and the team will win more often than not. Put him on a team with less than that and he'll likely struggle when those around him struggle. I don't know that I would call him a franchise QB. He's a solid QB and nothing more, and I think he's hit his ceiling.

Cousins is very capable of winning a super bowl. That's good enough for me. I'm not looking for his replacement. How many QBs have won a Super Bowl on their rookie contract. Mahomes check. Who else?

Brady, Big Ben, Wilson* and Rodgers*. Philly won it with their QB on his rookie contract.

The real question should be how many QBs have won it with their QBs making as much of the cap as Cousins will make on average over his career as a Viking. The answer to that is a big fat 0.

*Haven't won it since.

[VikingLord]

Yes it's impossible to know. We are making our best educated guesses.

My best educated guess in this draft is if Spieman trades up to get a WR that would be a mistake.

I am not as convinced that trading up to get a QB is a mistake, though. Burrow I think will become a Cousins-like pro. Tua and Herbert, OTOH, could develop into more than that provided they find themselves in the right situation to start. Being able to sit and develop without any immediate pressure on a solid team like the Vikings would qualify as the right situation for either of them.

Still not convinced that any QB in this draft is a future franchise guy, so if I had to put money on it I'd say Spielman sits or even tries to trade back for some extra spins on the wheel in the early 3rd.

[VikingsVictorious]

Cousins is very capable of winning a super bowl. That's good enough for me. I'm not looking for his replacement. How many QBs have won a Super Bowl on their rookie contract. Mahomes check. Who else?

Brady, Big Ben, Wilson* and Rodgers*. Philly won it with their QB on his rookie contract.

The real question should be how many QBs have won it with their QBs making as much of the cap as Cousins will make on average over his career as a Viking. The answer to that is a big fat 0.

*Haven't won it since.

Rodgers won the super bowl during his Rookie Contract? Doesn't seem right, but I'll trust you. Wentz wasn't even playing when Philly won the super bowl. Absolutely doesn't count. How many QBs won the super bowl while being among the top ten paid in the game. I bet the answer is many. Cousins will be no higher paid than 10th pretty soon.

[VikingsVictorious]

Yes it's impossible to know. We are making our best educated guesses.

My best educated guess in this draft is if Spieman trades up to get a WR that would be a mistake.

I am not as convinced that trading up to get a QB is a mistake, though. Burrow I think will become a Cousins-like pro. Tua and Herbert, OTOH, could develop into more than that provided they find themselves in the right situation to start. Being able to sit and develop without any immediate pressure on a solid team like the Vikings would qualify as the right situation for either of them.

Still not convinced that any QB in this draft is a future franchise guy, so if I had to put money on it I'd say Spielman sits or even tries to trade back for some extra spins on the wheel in the early 3rd.

Don't QBs have the highest bust rate of all positions drafted. It's boom or bust every time you draft one unless that player is as highly regarded coming in like Luck and Elway. Luck was great but never won a super bowl. I'm only trading up for a QB if he has a pedigree like Luck and then I'm not because he would cost too much and retire early.

Burrow had the best College QB season ever and I'm not even convinced about him. Certainly not convinced that Tua, Herbert or Love will ever amount to anything. Maybe Hurts is the next Lamar Jackson. If we can get him in the third I think I'm all over that.

[VikingLord]

Cousins is very capable of winning a super bowl.

He's never sniffed one so I'm not sure I agree with you on that point.

Goff, a guy you openly disparaged, has been much closer to winning a Super Bowl in his short career than Cousins has in a much longer one, and you can't argue that Goff just played on a stacked team and got there on the back of that fact. When Cousins arrived in Minnesota they were coming off a 13 win season with a pro-bowl stacked roster.

[VikingLord]

Don't QBs have the highest bust rate of all positions drafted. It's boom or bust every time you draft one unless that player is as highly regarded coming in like Luck and Elway. Luck was great but never won a super bowl. I'm only trading up for a QB if he has a pedigree like Luck and then I'm not because he would cost too much and retire early.

I don't know if it is the highest bust rate. I guess it depends on what one considers a bust. I imagine the bust rate for first round WRs isn't much better than it is for first round QBs.

What is the pedigree that Jeudy or Lamb possess that makes them worth an aggressive move up?

[VikingsVictorious]

Cousins is very capable of winning a super bowl.

He's never sniffed one so I'm not sure I agree with you on that point.

Goff, a guy you openly disparaged, has been much closer to winning a Super Bowl in his short career than Cousins has in a much longer one, and you can't argue that Goff just played on a stacked team and got there on the back of that fact. When Cousins arrived in Minnesota they were coming off a 13 win season with a pro-bowl stacked roster.

Other than one season Goff has sucked. Cousins has not had an adequate line but has managed to put up two very nice statistical seasons despite that and got us three wins from the super bowl. Just needs to go one round further each of his remaining years of his contract.

[VikingsVictorious]

Don't QBs have the highest bust rate of all positions drafted. It's boom or bust every time you draft one unless that player is as highly regarded coming in like Luck and Elway. Luck was great but never won a super bowl. I'm only trading up for a QB if he has a pedigree like Luck and then I'm not because he would cost too much and retire early.

I don't know if it is the highest bust rate. I guess it depends on what one considers a bust. I imagine the bust rate for first round WRs isn't much better than it is for first round QBs.

What is the pedigree that Jeudy or Lamb possess that makes them worth an aggressive move up?

Of first round picks QBs if I have heard correctly have by far the highest bust rate. Who said an aggressive move up for Jeudy or Lamb. I'm not in favor of that. The most I would give is 25 and 58. I don't consider that aggressive. YMMV. Can we fix this message board so the cursor doesn't disappear in the message window?

EDIT: here's a link to bust rate.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/244 ... -nfl-draft
First round QBs have a 5% chance of being all pro. WRs a 15% chance. Best is linebackers having 26% chance. A first round QB has a 1 in 20 chance at being all pro. So if we draft QB in the first round for the next 20 years odds are one will be all pro. Now that's a little cherry picking because first round QBs have a 40% chance of making a pro bowl some time in their career which is better than WRs at 30%. Then again the designated bust rate on 1st round QBs is 40% while WRs are 30%. Centers almost never bust at only 8%. Hopefully Bradbury doesn't buck that trend.

[Pondering Her Percy]

If Spielman is so inclined to do something bold, I'd rather he go all the way and get Tua or Herbert.

This is the right answer. You aren't just using draft picks to improve your QB position, you are also getting a good QB on a rookie salary, which is a huge advantage. 30 million extra in cap can go a long way to improving the team.

It’s not the right answer if you don’t think any of them are a franchise QB. We all know you want cousins gone, but drafting a QB just to draft one isn’t necessarily the right move. I mean are we really saying if we’re going to trade up it should be for a QB? I don’t understand how in any way that’s the right answer