Week 7 vs. Detroit

[Cliff]

Exciting game coming up. From what I've seen the talking heads think the Lions are the better team. They're definitely a good team but I think the Vikings have what it takes to get the win. It's going to take good play in all three phases. No getting hit in the face with punts, the best version of Sam Darnold, the defense really needs to get to Goff. Pressure on him is going to be key.

Hockenson won't be back for this one it seems.

It should be a really good one.

[VikingLord]

I think the Lions will be favorites in this upcoming game even without Hutchinson playing. I don't think they will be big favorites but they'll be favorites nonetheless. Despite what the Vikings have done the first five weeks I don't think most people believe in them yet, and I think I'm one of those people. Call it too many years of being on the wrong side of optimism as it relates to this team, but if they can beat a solid Lions team and keep doing what they've been doing to the other good teams they've faced, eventually they'll make a true believer out of me and everyone else.

I don't have time right now to do the full rundown on what the stats say about these two teams. I do know that the Lions have a very balanced offensive attack and, I believe, lead the league in scoring offense. I think the Vikings have a +63 point differential and the Lions sport a +61 point differential, although a big part of the latter is helped by their trashing of of a dysfunctional Cowboys team this last weekend.

Overall, these two teams are pretty well matched. Neither has an elite pass defense while both are pretty solid against the run although with the Lions it remains to be seen what the loss of their star defensive end does to them on the defensive side of the football. There likely will be some dropoff there. The Lions offense is capable of hurting defenses in multiple ways. Good offensive line will be yet another great challenge for the Vikings front 7. Hopefully the extra week of rest and a home game will give the Vikings the energy level advantage.

This is the kind of game the Vikings need to win - at home against a divisional opponent.

[CharVike]

Right now the media is crowning the Lions. Back to back 40+ points gets everyone excited. It wasn't always like that. Their D has shown to be much improved but losing Hutchinson is a huge blow. If they can't get pressure no secondary can hold up. I think their biggest asset is that OL. It's one of the best in the game. They beat people down and provide Goff time. Jameson Williams can blow the roof off so if Goff can stand there he's tough to cover and opens things up for others. As usual our front 7 on D needs to bring pressure and make Goff throw some bad passes and get some sacks and hits. What I couldn't believe is Goff hit 18 out of 18 a few weeks ago. That's impressive. Plus it was high yardage. We can't let Sammy get hit by these free runners off the edge. That's a disaster waiting to happen. Jones should be back. Being home and a week of rest is a huge benefit. This is the 2nd road game in a row for them. We need to correct our punt coverage/return problems. It's getting painful watching the punt action. If we don't give the ball away or allow ST mishaps it will probably come down to a late FG. Getting a lead and making them more one dimensional is key.

[cogitator]

I think the Lions will be favorites in this upcoming game even without Hutchinson playing. I don't think they will be big favorites but they'll be favorites nonetheless. Despite what the Vikings have done the first five weeks I don't think most people believe in them yet, and I think I'm one of those people.

I'm not quite sold yet either. I'm still waiting for Sam Darnold to turn from the prince back into the frog (or however one of those fairy tales goes) that he has been for most of his career. He's played well mostly, except the last game, I just want to see a few more games where he plays at a decent level - minimal mistakes, some key passes at critical moments (red zone stuff). The Vikings coaching stuff should get a lot of credit for getting Darnold playing the way he has so far.

[cmoss84]

Add Cam Akers to our list of weapons!

[makila]

Add Cam Akers to our list of weapons!

I am concerned it means Jones' injury is worse than thought.

[Cliff]

Add Cam Akers to our list of weapons!

I am concerned it means Jones' injury is worse than thought.

Supposedly Jones will be back this week so I don't think that's the worry necessarily. I think it's more about how the run game looked after Jones went down. Chandler averaged 2.1 YPC against the Jets when he was asked to take over full time. Gaskin had 2 runs for 2 yards. Things are just really thin after Jones and I think him going down made them realize that.

[makila]

Imho we are going to see a reduction in Jones' workload. Which was probably about to happen regardless. So at least someone sort of decent behind him.

Hopefully it's just depth and nothing more. Didn't he spend the offseason in Minnesota? I remember something about a physical, but no details come to mind.

[Cliff]

According to the Minnesota Star Tribune's Andrew Krammer on Wednesday, Vikings starting linebacker Blake Cashman is not expected to play against the Lions this week because of a turf toe injury that he is currently dealing with.

In addition, Krammer shared that Cashman's status for Minnesota's Week 8 contest against the Los Angeles Rams is up in the air as well, especially since the game will played on a Thursday night, just four days after the Vikings take on Detroit.

[VikingLord]

I wanted to do the statistical rundown of this matchup. I'll start with Vikings offense compared to Lions defense.

The Vikings offense has been a little inconsistent as of late. They've had some very productive quarters, but have not put together anything close to a complete game against the Jets and Packers, and that has hurt their overall ranking, which is now 17th overall at 323.2 YPG. The passing offense clocks in at a surprisingly bad 19th (207.8 YPG), while the rushing offense is a slightly worse 20th (115.4 YPG). The scoring offense continues to be a bright spot, however, coming in 6th overall (27.8 PPG). Sure, some of these rankings are likely the result of the opponents the Vikings have faced, but one gets the sense that maybe the Packers and Jets found a way to make life more difficult for Sam Darnold and the Vikings haven't found an effective response to that yet. Given the Lions also sport a strong defense, inquiring minds want to know if KOC can scheme the offense back to success, because the way they've played since the second half against the Packers is not going to get the job done.

About that Lions defense, it ranks 13th overall at 329.4 YPG. The Lions pass defense hasn't been great, coming in at 27th overall (246.2 YPG), while their run defense has been better ranking 3rd overall (83.2 YPG). Scoring defense is 8th overall (18.2 PPG). One thing about the Lions defensive stats that jump out is their overall similarity to the Vikings defensive stats, which we'll see in a minute. Both teams have played with substantial early leads, which I believe has skewed their defensive stats as their opponents must try to pass to catch up. But the other thing that stands out is both defenses appear very similar in terms of capability. The Lions may not have a great defense, but they are a complete defense and will create problems for opposing offenses that fail to execute. They concede yards, but not points. And unfortunately for the Vikings, I think this is a defense that is going to pose another stiff test for the Vikings offense. I don't think the Vikings are incapable of moving the ball and scoring on the Lions defense, but to do so they're going to have to start resembling the offense we saw over the first 3.5 games of the season and not the one we've watched over the last 1.5 games.

Now on to the Vikings defense, where I will make note of the statistical similarities with the Lions defense. Overall, the Vikings defense ranks 14th overall at 330.2 YPG, which is right behind the Lions. The Viking pass defense comes in at 30th overall (263.0 YPG), which is slightly worse than the Lions, but both are poor statistically. Run defense for the Vikings comes in at 2nd overall (67.2 YPG), which is one spot above the Lions. Scoring defense for the Vikings is 3rd overall (15.2 PPG). So we're basically looking at two defenses that have very similar rankings, and have played in similar game situations where they have been ahead big early and have played against pass-heavy counters from teams trying to catch up. The biggest difference between the two statistically is the total yardages each have allowed against the pass and run, with about 20 YPG gaps in both statistical categories (Lions with the advantage in pass defense and Vikings with the advantage in run defense). But I think in examining the Lions offensive rankings we're going to see where this game is likely going to be won or lost.

The Lions offense has been prolific as of late, ranking 3rd overall at 416.0 YPG. Their passing offense ranks 4th overall (258.2 YPG), while their rushing offense is also 4th overall (157.8 YPG). They round out at 1st overall in scoring offense (30.2 PPG). Basically, the Lions have an incredibly balanced and effective attack, running and passing and scoring efficiently, especially over their last 2 games. They took the formerly undefeated Seahawks to school first over that 2 game stretch and followed that up with a thumping of the Cowboys that I found incredibly enjoyable to watch as I despise the Cowboys and always will. Their first 3 games were not demonstrable blowouts - they took a loss to Tampa and escaped from the Rams and Cardinals with much closer contests. So I think the overall quality of opponent factors into some of these rankings as well as I don't think anyone has faced a more challenging slate of games than the Vikings have to open this season. I think it is likely the Lions will come back to earth a bit offensively in this upcoming game, while I also think the Vikings will alter some things offensively to negate what the last two defenses did to slow them down offensively.

This looks like the definition of a tossup if I ever saw one. I like that the Vikings are coming in rested off a bye. I like that the Vikings are at home. I like that the Vikings have creative minds at the coordinator positions and the talent to compete with the better teams in the league, of which I think the Lions are one of those teams. But the Lions are going to come in with a ton of confidence, and they will try to get the crowd out of it early. I think the outcome of this game will be decided fairy early. If the Vikings can get on top early and get a decent lead as they've done thus far, that plays heavily in their favor. If the Lions jump out early, it will be a situation we haven't seen the Vikings face yet this season.

I'm going to give the Vikings the edge primarily on the basis they are rested and coming off their bye and the fact that Hutchinson is out for the Lions. I think they're going to miss him a lot. Vikings get the early lead and hang on against another team that pulls out all the stops to come back late:

Vikings - 28
Lions - 24

[cmoss84]

A week ago, 2 of the Lions best players on defense were Aiden Hutchinson and Carlton Davis. Looks like we might avoid both Sunday. Will this turn into a shootout?

I don't like betting on the other team...but...

Lions 31
Vikings 27

Prove me wrong Vikes! SKOL!

[Cliff]

I wanted to do the statistical rundown of this matchup. I'll start with Vikings offense compared to Lions defense.

The Vikings offense has been a little inconsistent as of late. They've had some very productive quarters, but have not put together anything close to a complete game against the Jets and Packers, and that has hurt their overall ranking, which is now 17th overall at 323.2 YPG. The passing offense clocks in at a surprisingly bad 19th (207.8 YPG), while the rushing offense is a slightly worse 20th (115.4 YPG). The scoring offense continues to be a bright spot, however, coming in 6th overall (27.8 PPG). Sure, some of these rankings are likely the result of the opponents the Vikings have faced, but one gets the sense that maybe the Packers and Jets found a way to make life more difficult for Sam Darnold and the Vikings haven't found an effective response to that yet. Given the Lions also sport a strong defense, inquiring minds want to know if KOC can scheme the offense back to success, because the way they've played since the second half against the Packers is not going to get the job done.

About that Lions defense, it ranks 13th overall at 329.4 YPG. The Lions pass defense hasn't been great, coming in at 27th overall (246.2 YPG), while their run defense has been better ranking 3rd overall (83.2 YPG). Scoring defense is 8th overall (18.2 PPG). One thing about the Lions defensive stats that jump out is their overall similarity to the Vikings defensive stats, which we'll see in a minute. Both teams have played with substantial early leads, which I believe has skewed their defensive stats as their opponents must try to pass to catch up. But the other thing that stands out is both defenses appear very similar in terms of capability. The Lions may not have a great defense, but they are a complete defense and will create problems for opposing offenses that fail to execute. They concede yards, but not points. And unfortunately for the Vikings, I think this is a defense that is going to pose another stiff test for the Vikings offense. I don't think the Vikings are incapable of moving the ball and scoring on the Lions defense, but to do so they're going to have to start resembling the offense we saw over the first 3.5 games of the season and not the one we've watched over the last 1.5 games.

Now on to the Vikings defense, where I will make note of the statistical similarities with the Lions defense. Overall, the Vikings defense ranks 14th overall at 330.2 YPG, which is right behind the Lions. The Viking pass defense comes in at 30th overall (263.0 YPG), which is slightly worse than the Lions, but both are poor statistically. Run defense for the Vikings comes in at 2nd overall (67.2 YPG), which is one spot above the Lions. Scoring defense for the Vikings is 3rd overall (15.2 PPG). So we're basically looking at two defenses that have very similar rankings, and have played in similar game situations where they have been ahead big early and have played against pass-heavy counters from teams trying to catch up. The biggest difference between the two statistically is the total yardages each have allowed against the pass and run, with about 20 YPG gaps in both statistical categories (Lions with the advantage in pass defense and Vikings with the advantage in run defense). But I think in examining the Lions offensive rankings we're going to see where this game is likely going to be won or lost.

The Lions offense has been prolific as of late, ranking 3rd overall at 416.0 YPG. Their passing offense ranks 4th overall (258.2 YPG), while their rushing offense is also 4th overall (157.8 YPG). They round out at 1st overall in scoring offense (30.2 PPG). Basically, the Lions have an incredibly balanced and effective attack, running and passing and scoring efficiently, especially over their last 2 games. They took the formerly undefeated Seahawks to school first over that 2 game stretch and followed that up with a thumping of the Cowboys that I found incredibly enjoyable to watch as I despise the Cowboys and always will. Their first 3 games were not demonstrable blowouts - they took a loss to Tampa and escaped from the Rams and Cardinals with much closer contests. So I think the overall quality of opponent factors into some of these rankings as well as I don't think anyone has faced a more challenging slate of games than the Vikings have to open this season. I think it is likely the Lions will come back to earth a bit offensively in this upcoming game, while I also think the Vikings will alter some things offensively to negate what the last two defenses did to slow them down offensively.

This looks like the definition of a tossup if I ever saw one. I like that the Vikings are coming in rested off a bye. I like that the Vikings are at home. I like that the Vikings have creative minds at the coordinator positions and the talent to compete with the better teams in the league, of which I think the Lions are one of those teams. But the Lions are going to come in with a ton of confidence, and they will try to get the crowd out of it early. I think the outcome of this game will be decided fairy early. If the Vikings can get on top early and get a decent lead as they've done thus far, that plays heavily in their favor. If the Lions jump out early, it will be a situation we haven't seen the Vikings face yet this season.

I'm going to give the Vikings the edge primarily on the basis they are rested and coming off their bye and the fact that Hutchinson is out for the Lions. I think they're going to miss him a lot. Vikings get the early lead and hang on against another team that pulls out all the stops to come back late:

Vikings - 28
Lions - 24

Great write up.

I think the stats for the Vikings offense make things seem worse than they are. For starters, when they were up in GB they took their foot off the gas. Detroit ran over the Cowboys, backed over them, and ran them over again. Pulling out trick plays up by a silly amount.

The YPG is a result of the defense putting them in good places more than anything. That's why PPG is so high even though YPG is low.

The Jets are a different story. The Jets have 3 of the top 15 CBs in the league according to PFF (Sauce Gardner, Michael Carter II and D.J. Reed). They are built to stop the pass and they do a good job. They're in the top 3 or 5 in most defensive pass categories. They are one of the very few teams that can match up against the many weapons the Vikings have.

I think it'll be a close game still, but I'm not as worried about the Vikings offense. I'll be nervous if Jones can't play, the run game looked pretty bad without him.

[CharVike]

VL excellent write up. It was a great read. I think we are in great shape heading into this game and many things favor us like being at home. I also think Flores will take this as a huge challenge but one that he is looking forward to. As he said fight fire with fire. I think Dallas Turner may be called upon to get after Goff. I don't see a let down from us in this game. I think they will come out and attack on both sides of the ball. I think we can throw on this team as noodle arm Nick showed last year. For them to get pressure they will need to blitz which is always a big risk/reward deal. Darnold has proven he can take off and pick up yards. The guy moves very well and if they blitz to get pressure it could be wide open for him. I give the Lions credit because they are playing good ball. That OL they have allows them to do many different things well. That's the part of their team that I think makes them dangerous. Everything comes off their play. I think we win this 31-27.

[J. Kapp 11]

Vikings are 1.5 point favorites. Over-under is 50.5.

The biggest reason the Vikings rank near the bottom of pass defense is that they’ve gotten off to big leads in every game. Opponents have been forced to abandon the running game and throw on virtually every down. Make no mistake. The Vikings’ defense overall is for real.

But they’ll have their hands full.

The key to stopping Detroit is slowing down their running game. They’re big, physical and talented up front, while David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are the best 1-2 running back combo in the league. That’s how they scored 42 against Seattle and 47 against Dallas throwing a total of just 43 times in the two games. They aim to run the ball down your throat, then kill you with big plays off play action.

Slow down the running game and make Jared Goff beat you, and the game becomes much more winnable. Goff isn’t mobile, and he’s not good throwing on the run, which means the Vikings’ pass rush can force him into bad throws or mistakes. But if Detroit is running the ball successfully and he can use play-action to slow down the rush, Goff has been almost perfect — 18 for 18 against Seattle and 18 for 25 against Dallas.

I’m actually hoping for the under. A lower-scoring game favors the Vikings IMO.

As usual for me, no prediction. I’m almost always wrong.

[VikingsVictorious]

I haven't been posting much for a long time. What's there to post about. Vikings win, wash, rinse, repeat. Nice start today.