2024 NFL Draft

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CharVike
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Re: Q

Post by CharVike »

VikingLord wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 11:58 am
So if KOC is really doing what he says he's doing (which I have no doubt he is), then he also must know how difficult it is to find a single prospect with any certainty. Not to say he can't find a player who has more potential than another player, but so much at the QB position comes down not just to coachable fundamentals, but to intangibles that are much harder to properly assess in young players coming out of college. I'm talking about leadership. Guts. Field vision. Willingness to put in extra work above and beyond what is required of them.

Look at this upcoming QB class. People say it is a deep class at the top, but to me it looks like a pretty flat class with several players who don't really stand out relative to each other. All have notable strengths paired with notable question marks. So maybe KOC is better than most at reading the tea leaves with this group to find a guy who stands out from his peers in meaningful ways. I'd like to believe that he is. I just don't think this is an easy year to make that call. It's a deeper pool of QB prospects at the top, sure, but two factors still make it much harder for KOC to find the next GOAT at QB - he doesn't enjoy a top spot in the draft and even if he did he still couldn't draft the most obvious QB talent which is Caleb Williams. So he's got to find a less obvious talent and, barring KAM finding a willing trade partner, hope that talent falls to where he can select him.

Very tough task ahead of both KAM and KOC in this draft. I know some have pointed out that it would have been hard for KAM and KOC to have avoided being in this situation where their hand is forced at QB, but I still wish they were not forced.
If the Bears get offered enough they would trade that pick. Our 11 and 23 won't do it but it's a start. They can pick a star QB at 11 or 23 like some are projecting we can do. Plus get a bunch of other high draft picks and some players starting with JJ. KAM and KOC did nothing to avoid the situation that we are in. They could have kept Cousins and they wouldn't be in a forced situation. Would we win the SB with Cousins. Nope. Our core team isn't good enough to march through the playoffs even with Mahomes. Once we face a team with a strong D front it would be over. It will be hard to make a clean hand off and passing? I don't see it with guys running free up the middle to attack the QB. Our D can't hold a team to 10 or less. The talent isn't there. Plus it's no different scheme than the majority run. No magic bullet.
On a possible positive they saw a guy a couple years ago and they will do whatever it takes to get him in the draft. It will be a guy that can march a so so team to the SB. Perhaps it's Sammy and KOC will turn him into a HOFer. Steve Young bounced all over and was a bum his early career.
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Re: Q

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CharVike wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 1:27 pm
VikingLord wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 11:58 am

So if KOC is really doing what he says he's doing (which I have no doubt he is), then he also must know how difficult it is to find a single prospect with any certainty. Not to say he can't find a player who has more potential than another player, but so much at the QB position comes down not just to coachable fundamentals, but to intangibles that are much harder to properly assess in young players coming out of college. I'm talking about leadership. Guts. Field vision. Willingness to put in extra work above and beyond what is required of them.

Look at this upcoming QB class. People say it is a deep class at the top, but to me it looks like a pretty flat class with several players who don't really stand out relative to each other. All have notable strengths paired with notable question marks. So maybe KOC is better than most at reading the tea leaves with this group to find a guy who stands out from his peers in meaningful ways. I'd like to believe that he is. I just don't think this is an easy year to make that call. It's a deeper pool of QB prospects at the top, sure, but two factors still make it much harder for KOC to find the next GOAT at QB - he doesn't enjoy a top spot in the draft and even if he did he still couldn't draft the most obvious QB talent which is Caleb Williams. So he's got to find a less obvious talent and, barring KAM finding a willing trade partner, hope that talent falls to where he can select him.

Very tough task ahead of both KAM and KOC in this draft. I know some have pointed out that it would have been hard for KAM and KOC to have avoided being in this situation where their hand is forced at QB, but I still wish they were not forced.
If the Bears get offered enough they would trade that pick. Our 11 and 23 won't do it but it's a start.
There is no way the Bears trade the first pick, and even if they were inclined to do it it wouldn't be to the Vikings.

Besides, I don't think even Caleb Williams is a lock to become a star. Yeah, he can go off-script and make plays, but I'm not sold that he isn't just a different type of "Geoff George" at the QB position. George had amazing arm talent too, but he lacked any ability to connect with or lead a team. He was selfish as a player and a person. Also, as much fun as it may be to watch a QB ad-lib his way through a game, there is a big difference between a guy like Mahomes doing that on a good team that can absorb the mistakes he makes while ad-libbing and a guy like Mahomes doing that on a bad team that can't. Now granted, I don't know if the Bears will be a good team or a bad team this upcoming season, but if you put Mahomes on the Bears the last few years I don't know that people would be as impressed with the results.
CharVike wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 1:27 pm KAM and KOC did nothing to avoid the situation that we are in. They could have kept Cousins and they wouldn't be in a forced situation.
The funniest part of that is they actually *did* keep Cousins. They just didn't want to extend him for another 2 years when Cousins was open to extending for another 2 years, and then didn't count on someone else being willing to offer him a 4 year deal coming off a serious injury. It appears they just made assumptions that proved to be untrue.
CharVike wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 1:27 pm Perhaps it's Sammy and KOC will turn him into a HOFer. Steve Young bounced all over and was a bum his early career.
Very unlikely that Sam Darnold will amount to much at this point. Some QBs who don't make an immediate impact in the pros when given the chance do become serviceable starters in the right situation, and I think that is probably the best the Vikings can hope with Darnold. At the very least, the drop off from Cousins won't be as stark as it was last year when he went out with the injury. But Darnold isn't going to become the next Steve Young.

If anything, Darnold should serve as a cautionary tale for pre-draft QB evaluators. Darnold was taken very high the draft he came out. Many people were confident he would turn into an impact starter at some point. Darnold is living proof about how hard it is to make the right call at the QB position. Just look at who was drafted where in 2018 when Darnold was chosen to see how risky it would be for KAM to trade the farm to move up in this year's draft:

Baker Mayfield was taken 1st overall by the Browns
Sam Darnold was taken 3rd overall by the Jets
Josh Allen was taken 7th overall by the Bills
Josh Rosen was taken 10th overall by the Cardinals
Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall by the Ravens

3 out of the 5 QBs taken in the first round, including the first 2 taken, ended up not making much of an impact. 1 of them (Rosen) didn't even make it to the 2nd season with the team that drafted him. That was considered a pretty deep QB class too, with 4 of the first 10 picks in that year's draft spent on QBs.

I love the movie "Monty Python and the Holy Grail". In that movie there is a scene where a sorcerer named Tim takes King Arthur his knights to the Cave of Cairbanur (sp?) and warns them that they'll have to get past a fierce monster that guards the cave. When they reach the cave Arthur finds out the terrible monster is a little white rabbit, at which point the knights all start to laugh and make fun of Tim for getting them all worked up about how hard it would be to enter the cave. Tim tries to warn them saying "Look at the bones!" as there are tons of skeletal remains around the rabbit, but Arthur is dismissive and sends out one of his knights to kill the rabbit. The rabbit suddenly attacks the guy and bites off his head, at which point all of Arthur's knights charge in. Some are killed until Arthur tells them to all run away.

It's funny, but it reminds me of this pre-draft process. It looks easy, and for trained professionals, it should be easy, but it's not. All of the bones lying around from past drafts prove it.

Edit: for those who want a laugh - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcxKIJTb3Hg
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Re: Q

Post by cogitator »

VikingLord wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 3:57 pm

Baker Mayfield was taken 1st overall by the Browns
Sam Darnold was taken 3rd overall by the Jets
Josh Allen was taken 7th overall by the Bills
Josh Rosen was taken 10th overall by the Cardinals
Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall by the Ravens

That, and then this, from today at ESPN where they are reporting Zach Wilson traded to the Broncos. So a good lesson not to fall in love with a qb prospect and mortgage the future to get him. Ok to use a high pick on a qb if he falls into your lap, but don't go crazy to draft the guy.

The trade means that only one of the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2021 draft remains with his original team -- Trevor Lawrence, who was picked No. 1 overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The other four -- Wilson, Trey Lance (No. 3 pick), Justin Fields (No. 11) and Mac Jones (No. 15) -- have all been traded.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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psjordan wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 8:43 am Just a post about all the banter about this draft class of QB's (here and throughout fan bases), combined with (here) a pretty thorough examination of our "misses" at QB over recent history.

We all want our GM to be able to (with a reasonable sample size, i.e., over a few drafts) pick THE guy for our QB. When you compare that process league-wide, certainly a minority of the GM's actually get that right - and picking the right guy once can make your next five years as a GM.

This year, of the six first-round QB names bandied about, I'm guessing at least two and maybe up to four will be mediocre or busts, no matter where they go (although where they go is certainly important).

Point being, right off the bat our GM (and every GM) has highly diminished odds of getting The Guy.

Somebody somewhere is shouting to the rooftops that Joe Milton will be the best of the bunch. Or Spencer Rattler. Or Michael Pratt. Thing is, they may be right.

We want our GM to be top five at this job, just like we want our HC, QB, etc. to be. None of those guys are top five at their jobs yet, so there is no track record to have unbridled faith it will happen. In order to head in that direction, KAM (and KOC) have to beat pretty good odds with the QB selection this draft. That's a tough nut, odds-wise.

My feeling is that if they give up very high compensation for the guy they think is The Guy, I'll be disappointed. Just because that would be throwing a lot of chips at a low probability situation, which I'm rarely in favor of.

The Vikes first round scenario seems to involve WAY more moving parts than any other teams, so I hope our FO has mocked every scenario under the sun. And we aren't caught ... I can't even type this ... not getting our pick in on time. I could see the Pats saying "yes" to a trade for #3 with 10 seconds left on the clock and ... shudder.

Unfortunately, with all the banter - right up to Daniels supposedly not wanting to go to WAS, we all won't know until the draft unfolds. Lots riding on this one for KAM/KOC.
Great post. The way I see it is taking all of your life's savings and investing into lottery tickets. If you "hit" nobody will care how much it cost. Man do I hate that saying. We could stand pat at 11 and hit and then possibly draft a hall of famer at another couple of positions.
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Re: Q

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Cogitator Wrote.

I love the movie "Monty Python and the Holy Grail". In that movie there is a scene where a sorcerer named Tim takes King Arthur his knights to the Cave of Cairbanur (sp?) and warns them that they'll have to get past a fierce monster that guards the cave. When they reach the cave Arthur finds out the terrible monster is a little white rabbit, at which point the knights all start to laugh and make fun of Tim for getting them all worked up about how hard it would be to enter the cave. Tim tries to warn them saying "Look at the bones!" as there are tons of skeletal remains around the rabbit, but Arthur is dismissive and sends out one of his knights to kill the rabbit. The rabbit suddenly attacks the guy and bites off his head, at which point all of Arthur's knights charge in. Some are killed until Arthur tells them to all run away.

It's funny, but it reminds me of this pre-draft process. It looks easy, and for trained professionals, it should be easy, but it's not. All of the bones lying around from past drafts prove it.

Edit: for those who want a laugh - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcxKIJTb3Hg
[/quote]
Referencing The Holy Grail automatically gets a like from me.
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Re: Q

Post by CharVike »

VikingLord wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 3:57 pm
CharVike wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 1:27 pm
If the Bears get offered enough they would trade that pick. Our 11 and 23 won't do it but it's a start.
There is no way the Bears trade the first pick, and even if they were inclined to do it it wouldn't be to the Vikings.

Besides, I don't think even Caleb Williams is a lock to become a star. Yeah, he can go off-script and make plays, but I'm not sold that he isn't just a different type of "Geoff George" at the QB position. George had amazing arm talent too, but he lacked any ability to connect with or lead a team. He was selfish as a player and a person. Also, as much fun as it may be to watch a QB ad-lib his way through a game, there is a big difference between a guy like Mahomes doing that on a good team that can absorb the mistakes he makes while ad-libbing and a guy like Mahomes doing that on a bad team that can't. Now granted, I don't know if the Bears will be a good team or a bad team this upcoming season, but if you put Mahomes on the Bears the last few years I don't know that people would be as impressed with the results.
CharVike wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 1:27 pm KAM and KOC did nothing to avoid the situation that we are in. They could have kept Cousins and they wouldn't be in a forced situation.
The funniest part of that is they actually *did* keep Cousins. They just didn't want to extend him for another 2 years when Cousins was open to extending for another 2 years, and then didn't count on someone else being willing to offer him a 4 year deal coming off a serious injury. It appears they just made assumptions that proved to be untrue.
CharVike wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 1:27 pm Perhaps it's Sammy and KOC will turn him into a HOFer. Steve Young bounced all over and was a bum his early career.
Very unlikely that Sam Darnold will amount to much at this point. Some QBs who don't make an immediate impact in the pros when given the chance do become serviceable starters in the right situation, and I think that is probably the best the Vikings can hope with Darnold. At the very least, the drop off from Cousins won't be as stark as it was last year when he went out with the injury. But Darnold isn't going to become the next Steve Young.

If anything, Darnold should serve as a cautionary tale for pre-draft QB evaluators. Darnold was taken very high the draft he came out. Many people were confident he would turn into an impact starter at some point. Darnold is living proof about how hard it is to make the right call at the QB position. Just look at who was drafted where in 2018 when Darnold was chosen to see how risky it would be for KAM to trade the farm to move up in this year's draft:

Baker Mayfield was taken 1st overall by the Browns
Sam Darnold was taken 3rd overall by the Jets
Josh Allen was taken 7th overall by the Bills
Josh Rosen was taken 10th overall by the Cardinals
Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall by the Ravens

3 out of the 5 QBs taken in the first round, including the first 2 taken, ended up not making much of an impact. 1 of them (Rosen) didn't even make it to the 2nd season with the team that drafted him. That was considered a pretty deep QB class too, with 4 of the first 10 picks in that year's draft spent on QBs.

I love the movie "Monty Python and the Holy Grail". In that movie there is a scene where a sorcerer named Tim takes King Arthur his knights to the Cave of Cairbanur (sp?) and warns them that they'll have to get past a fierce monster that guards the cave. When they reach the cave Arthur finds out the terrible monster is a little white rabbit, at which point the knights all start to laugh and make fun of Tim for getting them all worked up about how hard it would be to enter the cave. Tim tries to warn them saying "Look at the bones!" as there are tons of skeletal remains around the rabbit, but Arthur is dismissive and sends out one of his knights to kill the rabbit. The rabbit suddenly attacks the guy and bites off his head, at which point all of Arthur's knights charge in. Some are killed until Arthur tells them to all run away.

It's funny, but it reminds me of this pre-draft process. It looks easy, and for trained professionals, it should be easy, but it's not. All of the bones lying around from past drafts prove it.

Edit: for those who want a laugh - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcxKIJTb3Hg
I was going to post that same draft. Even with that the who is good and bad would be all over the board. Rosen was a wash out. Darnold has been bad at every stop. Junk QB. Allen looks like he can't get through the playoffs. When we played him last I wasn't impressed. We beat them with a junk D. Loser Kirk beat him in his house. It was a fun game to watch that's for sure. JJ 4th down catch. Others might say it was garbage. To each there own. Jackson is one of the best according to the media. 10 points in a home champ game. They were putting up over 30 no problem during the season. His D played great ball. Give him a junk D who can't stop anybody. The story changes. The Bears won't trade that pick. Poles put them in position to make the 1st pick. He's good. Even if Caleb sucks his first few seasons Poles will get another contract. If he's generational they will be in some more SBs. Fields was a guy Speilman wanted. No shock he blows. You can't build a team when you rely on assumptions. That's a bad core value. Evaluate better than anybody else. Your golden then.
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Re: Q

Post by CharVike »

cogitator wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 4:39 pm
VikingLord wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 3:57 pm

Baker Mayfield was taken 1st overall by the Browns
Sam Darnold was taken 3rd overall by the Jets
Josh Allen was taken 7th overall by the Bills
Josh Rosen was taken 10th overall by the Cardinals
Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall by the Ravens

That, and then this, from today at ESPN where they are reporting Zach Wilson traded to the Broncos. So a good lesson not to fall in love with a qb prospect and mortgage the future to get him. Ok to use a high pick on a qb if he falls into your lap, but don't go crazy to draft the guy.

The trade means that only one of the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2021 draft remains with his original team -- Trevor Lawrence, who was picked No. 1 overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The other four -- Wilson, Trey Lance (No. 3 pick), Justin Fields (No. 11) and Mac Jones (No. 15) -- have all been traded.
Lot of losers in that one. Jones was my pick when he fell to us. He played ok year 1. Now he's not even at Mullens level. Fields gets great press and the media expected a 2nd round pick when the Bears threw him out. I don't understand that at all. Maybe commercials? All 6 of these top guys could be Wilson very easily.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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VikingsVictorious wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 5:56 pmGreat post. The way I see it is taking all of your life's savings and investing into lottery tickets. If you "hit" nobody will care how much it cost. Man do I hate that saying. We could stand pat at 11 and hit and then possibly draft a hall of famer at another couple of positions.
Except its way lower risk than that. It's more like trading in three $10 lottery scratch offs for one $20 scratch off. Your odds are a little bit better if you stick with three tries, but you can win bigger prizes with the higher paying card. Whatever you choose, it's still the lottery. None of them is like having money in the bank.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

Post by psjordan »

Cliff wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2024 5:55 am Except its way lower risk than that. It's more like trading in three $10 lottery scratch offs for one $20 scratch off. Your odds :D are a little bit better if you stick with three tries, but you can win bigger prizes with the higher paying card. Whatever you choose, it's still the lottery. None of them is like having money in the bank.
Except it's way higher risk than that :D
Your analogy assumes you use all three (or two) picks on a QB. Going to "fewer but 8/7/6 selections higher" picks just means (according to history) you are getting a slightly better chance of landing a good QB. Not to mention in your analogy you would also have to buy someone else a $30 scratch off for the privilege of getting those slightly better odds.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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Cliff wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2024 5:55 am
VikingsVictorious wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 5:56 pmGreat post. The way I see it is taking all of your life's savings and investing into lottery tickets. If you "hit" nobody will care how much it cost. Man do I hate that saying. We could stand pat at 11 and hit and then possibly draft a hall of famer at another couple of positions.
Except its way lower risk than that. It's more like trading in three $10 lottery scratch offs for one $20 scratch off. Your odds are a little bit better if you stick with three tries, but you can win bigger prizes with the higher paying card. Whatever you choose, it's still the lottery. None of them is like having money in the bank.
You both gave me a good laugh. Thank you both.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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This quote below from Kwesi is a contradiction at it's finest. They love everybody. Another is the ability to overcome context. What?That throws me into a loop. How about the ability to throw any pass in the book when under heavy pressure. Get that guy. Forget about adding things up. Next it will be the sum equals more than it's parts. I just hope we get Chop Robinson. That name sticks out and will turn the draft into a win for me. Pick him at 11 just for the laugh. We can get Penix at 23.

"There are multiple [quarterbacks] that we are in love with just on an outright basis," Adofo-Mensah said, via ESPN. "But there are also other guys we're in love with, given if we got them at a certain value, what they'd also be able to come with skill-set wise, if you're talking about the ability to overcome context. Well, if the guy's got less ability [to do that] but we've got assets to go get somebody that's not going to put him in that situation, those things add up, too."
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

Post by Cliff »

Cliff wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2024 5:55 am
VikingsVictorious wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 5:56 pmGreat post. The way I see it is taking all of your life's savings and investing into lottery tickets. If you "hit" nobody will care how much it cost. Man do I hate that saying. We could stand pat at 11 and hit and then possibly draft a hall of famer at another couple of positions.
Except its way lower risk than that. It's more like trading in three $10 lottery scratch offs for one $20 scratch off. Your odds are a little bit better if you stick with three tries, but you can win bigger prizes with the higher paying card. Whatever you choose, it's still the lottery. None of them is like having money in the bank.
I'll be happy when the draft happens. We're getting way too metaphoric :lol:
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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Cliff wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2024 5:55 am
VikingsVictorious wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 5:56 pmGreat post. The way I see it is taking all of your life's savings and investing into lottery tickets. If you "hit" nobody will care how much it cost. Man do I hate that saying. We could stand pat at 11 and hit and then possibly draft a hall of famer at another couple of positions.
Except its way lower risk than that. It's more like trading in three $10 lottery scratch offs for one $20 scratch off. Your odds are a little bit better if you stick with three tries, but you can win bigger prizes with the higher paying card. Whatever you choose, it's still the lottery. None of them is like having money in the bank.
My lottery example is Hyperbole, but I'd look at this as trading a $15 (11), a $10(23) , and a $15 (25FRP) lottery tickets for the one $20.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

Post by Cliff »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2024 12:01 pm
Cliff wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2024 5:55 am

Except its way lower risk than that. It's more like trading in three $10 lottery scratch offs for one $20 scratch off. Your odds are a little bit better if you stick with three tries, but you can win bigger prizes with the higher paying card. Whatever you choose, it's still the lottery. None of them is like having money in the bank.
My lottery example is Hyperbole, but I'd look at this as trading a $15 (11), a $10(23) , and a $15 (25FRP) lottery tickets for the one $20.
I get it, but my point was that people are treating it as if the Vikings will lose their metaphorical life savings if they make the deal and it doesn't pan out. That's not the case though. Anyway, I don't want KOC to "hedge his bets". I don't want him to have any excuses if it doesn't pan out. I want him to be able to put significant resources into getting one of the QBs he wants and plugging them into an offense he has already put together himself.

I'd really like to see what KOC can do when he is actually able to get the pieces in place that he wants. I think we got a sample with Cousins but I think the ceiling is higher for his offense.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

Post by VikingsVictorious »

Cliff wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2024 12:54 pm
VikingsVictorious wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2024 12:01 pm
My lottery example is Hyperbole, but I'd look at this as trading a $15 (11), a $10(23) , and a $15 (25FRP) lottery tickets for the one $20.
I get it, but my point was that people are treating it as if the Vikings will lose their metaphorical life savings if they make the deal and it doesn't pan out. That's not the case though. Anyway, I don't want KOC to "hedge his bets". I don't want him to have any excuses if it doesn't pan out. I want him to be able to put significant resources into getting one of the QBs he wants and plugging them into an offense he has already put together himself.

I'd really like to see what KOC can do when he is actually able to get the pieces in place that he wants. I think we got a sample with Cousins but I think the ceiling is higher for his offense.
Kirk per national broadcasters was playing at an MVP level when he got injured last year.