Vikings at Raiders

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CharVike
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Vikings at Raiders

Post by CharVike »

The Raiders are using the remainder of the season to evaluate a rookie QB and interim HC. So far under them they are 2-2. They are basically a weak middle of the pack team. They can't beat a good team and will occasionally get beat by a bottom dweller as the Bears beat them badly which lead to the reshuffling of the deck starting with the GM. We should beat them because we have a big advantage from the defensive side. Flores should be able to confuse the rookie QB and force him to throw some bad passes or take sacks. He can't run which also frees up some rush guys. Best case they score one TD and kick a few FGs. On our side we get JJ back which will help. We were a turnover machine against the Bears which allowed them to stay within striking distance and they took advantage of it. A pitiful showing. KOC is sticking with Dobbs and who knows what version will show up. Will it be the movement player or a guy who stands in the pocket forever afraid to unload the ball. Not trusting anything he sees and slow to make a determination. IMO he's not a pocket passer who can go through the progression tree but a free lancer who will pull the ball down and look to take off or hit a guy off his movement and corresponding defensive confusion. A train wreck type of play. They will attempt to box him into the pocket. Surprisingly the Bears have a good D so I'm sure that lead to some of the issues. The Raiders D isn't close to them so we should put up 20 which is hard to post after our last game. I see it 23-13 in our favor unless we turn the ball over then it will flip and we will get beat.
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by Cliff »

This feels like a make or break game for the Viking's season. The Packers (who have beaten the Lions and Chiefs while the Vikings have lost to the Broncos and Bears) are right behind and if they lose again the Packers may never give the spot back. Their remaining schedule is NYG, Bucs, Panthers, Vikings, Bears. The Vikings have Bengals, Packers, Lions X2. They can't afford to drop any more of the "easier" games and expect to make the playoffs.

Dobbs' passes have got to come out with more speed. They also need to come out faster when teams are blitzing. Him and Jefferson need to start developing chemistry right away if his presence is going to open things up. This is a "pass to open up the run" kind of team. If the pass is working, the running game generally opens up. With the QB situation they're in you might expect them to try to ramp up the running game but I don't think so. They're not built for "ground and pound" ball so even if they're not very happy at QB I wouldn't expect to see that. They don't have the players for it. The big weapons are in the passing game and they'll have to be used if the Vikings are going to win.

The defense needs to keep being the defense with maybe an extra INT if they can manage it. They're certainly not perfect and have given up points at some inopportune times towards the end of games but they have mostly been put in that situation thanks to the offense. Things like not converting 3rd down (22% against the Bears) and throwing 4 INTs keeps the defense on the field a long time. In this case, a full 11 minutes and 40 seconds longer. They're tremendous athletes but they're not super men. This isn't Madden where you can take a time out to get the little dot to change from red to yellow and magically the players have energy again. This defense is aggressive and they expend a lot of energy which means the longer they can be kept off the field the better. That's true with every defense, but with this one it's especially important.

Even with all that said, primarily the turnovers have got to stop. They can't win if they keep turning over the ball like they are. Period. Most of the other circumstances don't even matter if they are -3 in TO differential. Teams almost never overcome that.

TO differential was one of the reasons I was higher on the 2022 defense than most. It is insane how big of an indicator for victory that is. The defense played back and soft but they were very good at generating TOs as a result. Due to the type of ball they played they were often still pretty fresh at the end of the game. I think that directly contributed to them consistently making big plays at the end of games. It was ugly but it mostly worked.

:govikes:
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by J. Kapp 11 »

This just in.

It's been reported that Vikings fans have purchased 54% of tickets for the game in Vegas. Not a surprise. Vegas is such a transient city, it makes sense that they haven't yet fully embraced the team as their own. And Vegas is a great destination for Vikings fans who want to get out of the cold and have a fun weekend. It's going to practically be a home game, which is a good thing.

As for the game, a lot will ride on whether Kevin O'Connell is successful at what he says he's trying to do, which is to tailor the offense to Josh Dobbs' strengths. To adapt.

Think about that for a minute. O'Connell's offense is based on what he calls "explosives." Big plays. Not necessarily bombs, but pass plays 15, 20, 25 yards downfield. Those plays take time to develop, and they take great timing between quarterback and receivers. It also takes a quarterback who can put it on the money that far downfield. Kirk is good at all those things. Dobbs has a career YPA in the 6's. Also, if Dobbs is expecting a certain look on those plays and he doesn't get it, how much experience does he have in trusting both his protection and what he sees so he can get to the next reads in his progression? If you watch Kirk on JT O'Sullivan's breakdowns, JT talks about how much Kirk trusts both his protection and his receivers to be in the right place at the right time. His footwork is second to none. There's no way Dobbs can be in that same place after a month.

So Kevin really needs to call more plays that get the ball out of Dobbs' hands quickly because we've seen ... the longer he holds the ball, the more likely he is to make a mistake. As proof of this, PFF shows that Dobbs was only responsible for 9% of the pressures against him when he was with the Cardinals. In other words, holding the ball too long leading to pressure on the QB. With the Vikings, that number has jumped to a scary 25%. KOC has GOT to scheme things in a way that protects Dobbs from himself. To KOC's credit, he admitted as much in his presser. He said that after watching film of the Chicago game, he realized that neither he nor the team helped Dobbs much.

This is a huge opportunity for Kevin O'Connell to prove himself as a coach who can adapt. Let's hope he can meet the challenge.
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by VikingLord »

The Raiders lack explosiveness on offense (but so did the Broncos and Bears), which should tip the scales in favor of the Vikings and would tip them if the Vikings can avoid the execution mistakes, inopportune penalties and penchant for coughing up the ball that has plagued them as of late. If the offense continues that type of play there is a very good chance the team will lose to the Raiders, and if they lose to the Raiders I think the chances of us seeing what Jaren Hall can do for the rest of this season go way up (and that might not be a bad thing).

I find it hard to believe the Vikings offense can continue making all the mistakes it makes when they lose, but I've felt that way from the start of this season, including when Cousins was the starting QB. When they are playing poorly it seems like everyone on offense gets involved in making the mess, including KOC himself with his play calling. It would be easy to just blame the QB but it goes well beyond just that position. Given the penchant of this offense to stink up the field with mistakes so far this season, I see no reason to believe they won't repeat that against the Raiders this Sunday. I hope they won't, of course, but it is very possible, even if Dobbs has a decent game. It's been that equal-opportunity for that side of the ball this year.

I expect the Vikings defense to continue playing well overall. If the offense doesn't put them into bad situations repeatedly I am confident they can keep the Raiders from scoring many points or sustaining many drives. Flores has done a very nice job on that side of the ball, but it is a team sport and the offense needs to hold up its side of the bargain, which it hasn't done enough of this year.

This is a tough game to call. On paper, the Vikings should win this one by at least a TD if not two. But I don't think they will. I think Dobbs is going to continue to struggle as a pocket QB and KOC will continue to play it close to the vest with a lead. I see this game mirroring the losses against the Broncos and Bears where the game is tied late only to watch the Raiders drive for a game-winning field goal. I hope that I'm wrong on this one, but I see nothing to suggest anyone who can make a change has accepted, much less acknowledged, the changes that need to be made to turn their fortunes around at this point in the season. If there is a bright side, if the offense can avoid the mistakes and actually produce, the Vikings could win the game in spite of themselves just because they are more talented overall than the Raiders. I just don't expect that to happen given their track record against these sorts of teams this year.

Final score

Raiders - 20
Vikings - 17
StanM
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by StanM »

I get the impression that KOC is a great offensive mind but sometimes his expectations exceed the offenses ability to execute his plans. If he has a good day and they’re hitting on all eight cylinders he looks like a genius. If his game plan gets too ambitious the offense looks bad. They say that the ideal situation is when players can play fast without thinking.

That’s my theory.
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by CharVike »

Inactives
RG Ed Ingram hip - First snap he has missed. Blake Brandel gets the nod.
QB Jaren Hall (dressed as emergency third QB)
S Lewis Cine - at least the Raiders don't have to worry about him hurting somebody. Healthy scratch again.
TE Nick Muse
OL Hakeem Adeniji
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VikingsVictorious
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by VikingsVictorious »

Please get Dobbs out of the game. Mullens is ready.
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by CharVike »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Sun Dec 10, 2023 4:24 pm Please get Dobbs out of the game. Mullens is ready.
Don't expect a change today. KOC didn't make changes for nothing. These things take time. Ideally you need a training camp he did it during a bye week. Raiders are laying down anyway. Just no mistakes.
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by VikingsVictorious »

I'm shocked that 4th and 2 from the raiders 38 and KOC went for it. On the play leading to that 4th and 2 Dobbs had a receiver open for the first down, but opted to run for it.
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by VikingsVictorious »

Another half another shut out. What will it take for us to figure out that Dobbs isn't the answer.
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by CharVike »

I don't know why they stopped running it. Matti is getting yards and we say no thank you. Use what's working. Missed FG cost us the lead at the half. This might be a 3-2 or 3-0 game.
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VikingsVictorious
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by VikingsVictorious »

I've been watching the game. Dobbs is 5-11 for 40 yards. That's a 45% completion rate and 3.63 yards per attempt. Sacked 4 times for 37 yards. Is it any surprise we haven't scored yet?
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by Cliff »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Sun Dec 10, 2023 5:34 pm I've been watching the game. Dobbs is 5-11 for 40 yards. That's a 45% completion rate and 3.63 yards per attempt. Is it any surprise we haven't scored yet?
To be fair the receivers aren't helping. Hockenson should have come up with it. One hit a guy in the face ...
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by VikingsVictorious »

Cliff wrote: Sun Dec 10, 2023 5:37 pm
VikingsVictorious wrote: Sun Dec 10, 2023 5:34 pm I've been watching the game. Dobbs is 5-11 for 40 yards. That's a 45% completion rate and 3.63 yards per attempt. Is it any surprise we haven't scored yet?
To be fair the receivers aren't helping. Hockenson should have come up with it. One hit a guy in the face ...
There will always be passes that should have been caught that aren't. You know I'm mostly a very positive guy, but I'm clearly unhappy with Dobbs and I think I have good reason to be. These are not good teams we have been losing to. Our offense has not been bad it's been horrific.
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Re: Vikings at Raiders

Post by VikingsVictorious »

How long of a leash do we give Dobbs? 3 quarters. 19 passes 63 yards and zero points. .