Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

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StumpHunter
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Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by StumpHunter »

Saw this on DN and thought people would find it interesting:

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/3/31 ... a-great-qb

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From the Vikings' standpoint, a one-year extension of $35 million doesn't look too bad for a quarterback who is 9th in win percentage among qualifying quarterbacks when his team gives 21-25 points. He's not worth an extension of Rodgers' caliber obviously, but this is not bad at all.
Some positivity for Kirk's mediocrity!

Look at Watson. The guy just does not lose when his team gives up fewer than 25 points or in grand jury trials.

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Cousins really disappoints in this list, and just barely beats out Darnold in being able to win high-scoring games.
Well that isn't good. I thought Kirk was brought in to win the high scoring games Case had no shot in. Turns out all the people claiming Kirk couldn't possibly win with the bad defenses we have been putting out there the past two seasons have been right all along. Rodgers, Brady, Allen and of course Mahomes all win at twice the rate or more than Cousins does when his D gives up more than 25 points. Even a guy like Alex Smith won more when his teams gave up 25+ points.
Pondering Her Percy
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by Pondering Her Percy »

I feel like this is even more of a true tell. Outside of the Mahomes, Rodgers and Brady type QB, this team wasnt getting more than 9 wins with the defense it had. Which at best, is a wild card and out type playoff run. Even the Super Bowl Champion Matt Stafford matched Cousins win total. This is why I continue to say, if we can just get our defense to at worst, average, then we're going to see the win total escalate.
For example, it doesn't take a great football mind to know that the Vikings' defense was a problem last season and made it more difficult to win than the average defense. With the win percentages above, we can see what Rodgers, Mahomes, and Brady would have done if they were starting on this Vikings team and the defense gave up the exact same number of points.

Mahomes: 13 wins

Rodgers: 10 wins

Brady: 10 wins

Prescott: 9 wins

Wilson: 9 wins

Ryan: 9 wins

Stafford: 8 wins

Cousins: 8 wins

Tannehill: 9 wins

Carr: 8 wins
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StumpHunter
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by StumpHunter »

Pondering Her Percy wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:45 am I feel like this is even more of a true tell. Outside of the Mahomes, Rodgers and Brady type QB, this team wasnt getting more than 9 wins with the defense it had. Which at best, is a wild card and out type playoff run. Even the Super Bowl Champion Matt Stafford matched Cousins win total. This is why I continue to say, if we can just get our defense to at worst, average, then we're going to see the win total escalate.
For example, it doesn't take a great football mind to know that the Vikings' defense was a problem last season and made it more difficult to win than the average defense. With the win percentages above, we can see what Rodgers, Mahomes, and Brady would have done if they were starting on this Vikings team and the defense gave up the exact same number of points.

Mahomes: 13 wins

Rodgers: 10 wins

Brady: 10 wins

Prescott: 9 wins

Wilson: 9 wins

Ryan: 9 wins

Stafford: 8 wins

Cousins: 8 wins

Tannehill: 9 wins

Carr: 8 wins
It is very telling indeed. Every QB but Stafford, Carr and Cousins had this team in the playoffs and Carr and Stafford on average haven't have the weapons that Cousins had last year to overcome those games where the D gave up a lot of points.
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by Pondering Her Percy »

StumpHunter wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:14 am
Pondering Her Percy wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:45 am I feel like this is even more of a true tell. Outside of the Mahomes, Rodgers and Brady type QB, this team wasnt getting more than 9 wins with the defense it had. Which at best, is a wild card and out type playoff run. Even the Super Bowl Champion Matt Stafford matched Cousins win total. This is why I continue to say, if we can just get our defense to at worst, average, then we're going to see the win total escalate.

It is very telling indeed. Every QB but Stafford, Carr and Cousins had this team in the playoffs and Carr and Stafford on average haven't have the weapons that Cousins had last year to overcome those games where the D gave up a lot of points.
Is there really a difference between missing the playoffs by one game at 8-9 or making the playoffs and being a one and done and be 9-8. If that tells you that guys like Tannehill, Ryan and Prescott are that much better if at all than Cousins, then I'm not sure what to tell you.

What's funny, is if Cousins went 9-8 and made the playoffs, you'd still be on here complaining about how big of a problem he is, yet you sit here and actually give recognition to guys like Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill and Dak Prescott for having 9 wins in this situation :lol: THIS IS WHAT YOU DO!

Kirk Cousins was a 37 yard Greg Joseph field goal away from having 9 wins. But I guess that means since he only had 8, there's a giant difference between him and Tannehill/Ryan/Prescott.

Another day, another bad argument
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by J. Kapp 11 »

Doesn’t this illustrate how much a defense DOES factor into wins and losses?

If you’re a quarterback on a team whose defense gives up a lot of points, you win fewer games. That’s what this graphic shows. Is this a surprise?

What am I missing here?
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by StumpHunter »

Pondering Her Percy wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:13 pm
StumpHunter wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:14 am
It is very telling indeed. Every QB but Stafford, Carr and Cousins had this team in the playoffs and Carr and Stafford on average haven't have the weapons that Cousins had last year to overcome those games where the D gave up a lot of points.
Is there really a difference between missing the playoffs by one game at 8-9 or making the playoffs and being a one and done and be 9-8. If that tells you that guys like Tannehill, Ryan and Prescott are that much better if at all than Cousins, then I'm not sure what to tell you.
This was not a team that could compete for anything last year without a Rodgers, Brady or Mahomes like QB. It was a team that was a Tannehill, Ryan (in his prime, not now), or Prescott away from the playoffs though. It is easier to build around that type of guy than Cousins, especially if that type of QB falls to us in the draft and is making rookie money.

What's funny, is if Cousins went 9-8 and made the playoffs, you'd still be on here complaining about how big of a problem he is, yet you sit here and actually give recognition to guys like Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill and Dak Prescott for having 9 wins in this situation :lol: THIS IS WHAT YOU DO!
I am not giving recognition to anyone here, outside of saying they are easier to win with than Cousins. I would be very disappointed in a 9 win season, almost as much as with an 8 win seasons, no matter who the QB was.
Kirk Cousins was a 37 yard Greg Joseph field goal away from having 9 wins. But I guess that means since he only had 8, there's a giant difference between him and Tannehill/Ryan/Prescott.
You are talking a single game, while the article talks trends. Sure if a couple of bounces go the way of the Vikings we win a couple of more games, but maybe with a better QB we don't need those bounces in the first place? Maybe if the Packer's CBs don't drop 5 interceptions we don't win against GB? We could go back and forth on this and it really doesn't matter since what happened in individual games isn't the point.
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by StumpHunter »

J. Kapp 11 wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:48 pm Doesn’t this illustrate how much a defense DOES factor into wins and losses?

If you’re a quarterback on a team whose defense gives up a lot of points, you win fewer games. That’s what this graphic shows. Is this a surprise?

What am I missing here?
I meant looking at how each QB's win % compares to other QB's win % when their defenses are similar. So removing it as a factor when comparing QBs, not removing it as a factor in win % overall.
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by Pondering Her Percy »

StumpHunter wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 2:24 pm
This was not a team that could compete for anything last year without a Rodgers, Brady or Mahomes like QB. It was a team that was a Tannehill, Ryan (in his prime, not now), or Prescott away from the playoffs though. It is easier to build around that type of guy than Cousins, especially if that type of QB falls to us in the draft and is making rookie money.
So Ryan Tannehill, the same guy that rides the coat tails of his all world RB is going to lead us to the playoffs last year? Or Dak Prescott, who's been one of the most underachieving QBs the last 4-5 years? I mean Prescott cant get past the first round of the playoffs no matter how loaded his roster is, and he's had quite a few. So if you're really going to use those guys to downplay Cousins, go for it, but it literally carries zero weight.

I am not giving recognition to anyone here, outside of saying they are easier to win with than Cousins. I would be very disappointed in a 9 win season, almost as much as with an 8 win seasons, no matter who the QB was.
Again, I dont agree with this. Ryan Tannehill is a system QB that needs an elite RB to carry him. Prescott has had all the tools he needs at his disposal and has constantly underachieved. I just dont see how it's any "easier" to win with guys like Tannehill and Prescott compared to Cousins.
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by Pondering Her Percy »

J. Kapp 11 wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:48 pm Doesn’t this illustrate how much a defense DOES factor into wins and losses?

If you’re a quarterback on a team whose defense gives up a lot of points, you win fewer games. That’s what this graphic shows. Is this a surprise?

What am I missing here?
Exactly and given how much the NFL is a team sport, I find this somewhat pointless.

And okay, if you give everyone the same defense and this is what the win results would be like, it just shows that guys like Mahomes, Brady and Rodgers are above all else, which we already knew. It just shows everyone on this list outside of them are all in the same wheelhouse if they had a defense like the Vikings last year. So again, tell us something we dont already know
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by StumpHunter »

Pondering Her Percy wrote: Thu Apr 07, 2022 7:16 am
StumpHunter wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 2:24 pm
This was not a team that could compete for anything last year without a Rodgers, Brady or Mahomes like QB. It was a team that was a Tannehill, Ryan (in his prime, not now), or Prescott away from the playoffs though. It is easier to build around that type of guy than Cousins, especially if that type of QB falls to us in the draft and is making rookie money.
So Ryan Tannehill, the same guy that rides the coat tails of his all world RB is going to lead us to the playoffs last year? Or Dak Prescott, who's been one of the most underachieving QBs the last 4-5 years? I mean Prescott cant get past the first round of the playoffs no matter how loaded his roster is, and he's had quite a few. So if you're really going to use those guys to downplay Cousins, go for it, but it literally carries zero weight.

I am not giving recognition to anyone here, outside of saying they are easier to win with than Cousins. I would be very disappointed in a 9 win season, almost as much as with an 8 win seasons, no matter who the QB was.
Again, I dont agree with this. Ryan Tannehill is a system QB that needs an elite RB to carry him. Prescott has had all the tools he needs at his disposal and has constantly underachieved. I just dont see how it's any "easier" to win with guys like Tannehill and Prescott compared to Cousins.
:confused:

How many double digit win seasons does Cousins have without an elite RB to carry him?

How many #1 seed, 12 win seasons does Tannehill have with his elite RB being out for most of the season? You just saw Tannehill go 6-3 without an elite RB and the 3rd worst pass blocking efficiency Oline despite Tannehill getting rid of the ball 4th fastest of any QB.

If 2021 doesn't prove it is easier to win with Tannehill than Cousins, than nothing will.

I will take the underachievement of Dak being a career .624 versus the underachiever who is .500.

This is based on what those QBs have done throughout their careers, when their defenses have given the same amount of points. It isn't my opinion, it is fact.
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by Pondering Her Percy »

StumpHunter wrote: Thu Apr 07, 2022 7:40 am
How many #1 seed, 12 win seasons does Tannehill have with his elite RB being out for most of the season? You just saw Tannehill go 6-3 without an elite RB and the 3rd worst pass blocking efficiency Oline despite Tannehill getting rid of the ball 4th fastest of any QB.
Um one? Last year he lost Henry and then proceeded to go 4-3 without him and then ended the year with Miami and Houston who were both out the door at that point. Tannehill also had DOUBLE the turnovers (18) than Cousins had (9). He also had 12 less touchdown passes. Like I said, he's a system QB that simply needs to game manage.

Tannehill also had a defense that was 6th in points allowed. Compared to Cousins who had a defense that was 24th in points allowed.
If 2021 doesn't prove it is easier to win with Tannehill than Cousins, than nothing will.
Again, system Quarterback. You can say what you want but Ryan Tannehill is not a better QB than Kirk Cousins. This is the problem when you're just looking at record. There are so many other factors that go into a good or a bad record. Not just QB play. Alex Smith always had great records but he was nothing more than a game manager. That's Tannehill. A system QB that needs to manage the game. That doesnt mean Alex Smith was always better than every QB he had a better record than that season. In the end, nothing proves Tannehill is a better QB than Cousins, because he's not.
I will take the underachievement of Dak being a career .624 versus the underachiever who is .500.
Ok, so a regular season hero then? Prescott and this Cowboys team has arguably been the most underachieving team in all of football the last 5 years. And has a 1-3 playoff record to go with it. So if you want to get an extra win every year and go no further than Cousins has taken us, then I guess that makes you a Prescott fan.
This is based on what those QBs have done throughout their careers, when their defenses have given the same amount of points. It isn't my opinion, it is fact.
This is all a calculated prediction based on percentages. Not a fact that it would actually happen. So no, it's not a fact, it's a prediction. Good try though
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by StumpHunter »

Pondering Her Percy wrote: Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:16 am
StumpHunter wrote: Thu Apr 07, 2022 7:40 am
How many #1 seed, 12 win seasons does Tannehill have with his elite RB being out for most of the season? You just saw Tannehill go 6-3 without an elite RB and the 3rd worst pass blocking efficiency Oline despite Tannehill getting rid of the ball 4th fastest of any QB.
Um one? Last year he lost Henry and then proceeded to go 4-3 without him

Which is infinitely more than Cousins. Henry played in 8 games last season, 8 + 7 is 15 and last I checked there were 17 games in a season, which means he was 6-3 without Henry, like I said. Why are you lying?
Tannehill also had DOUBLE the turnovers (18) than Cousins had (9). He also had 12 less touchdown passes. Like I said, he's a system QB that simply needs to game manage.
And Cousins isn't? How can you call Tannehill a system QB who only needs to game manage while he wins more games with less?
In your defense of Cousins you have claimed he needs the run game, oline and defense and then he can be successful. A guy who can only win if he only needs to game manage. TN had a near identical PPD defense in 2020 as the Vikings and TN won 11 while the Vikings won 7. Is Henry that much better than Cook or is it much easier to win with Tannehill?

Tannehill also had a defense that was 6th in points allowed. Compared to Cousins who had a defense that was 24th in points allowed.
10th in PPD versus 18th in PPD = 4 more wins?
This is all a calculated prediction based on percentages. Not a fact that it would actually happen. So no, it's not a fact, it's a prediction. Good try though
No, it is calculation based on what actually happened. It is a fact that when Tannehill faces similar defenses, he wins more.
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by allday1991 »

J. Kapp 11 wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:48 pm Doesn’t this illustrate how much a defense DOES factor into wins and losses?

If you’re a quarterback on a team whose defense gives up a lot of points, you win fewer games. That’s what this graphic shows. Is this a surprise?

What am I missing here?
I dunno I feel like this discussion has been going on for weeks, it far past :deadhorse:
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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by StanM »

So, if I understand all stats and arguments the point is that the team that scores the most points and prevents the other team from scoring more then they do wins. What a concept.

But on a more serious note this is like asking what came first, the chicken or the egg. We will know the answer to that question and whether the changes on offense will play well enough that the defense won’t be sucking air by the half. This takes us full circle back to the complimentary football concept. Bottom line, we can guess and throw stats around all summer but won’t know what we have until September.

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Re: Removing Defense As a Factor in QB Wins

Post by vikeinmontana »

allday1991 wrote: Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:20 am
J. Kapp 11 wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:48 pm Doesn’t this illustrate how much a defense DOES factor into wins and losses?

If you’re a quarterback on a team whose defense gives up a lot of points, you win fewer games. That’s what this graphic shows. Is this a surprise?

What am I missing here?
I dunno I feel like this discussion has been going on for weeks, it far past :deadhorse:
I think you mean years. But I think we're right on the verge of someone changing their opinion of Cousins any day now.... 8)
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