Kirk Cousins' contract is a bargain

[J. Kapp 11]

I posted this in another thread, but I feel it deserves space of its own.

Let's put an end to this stupid "Cousins is overpaid" debate right now.

Neil Greenberg, writing for the Washington Post -- a newspaper that was rarely kind to Kirk Cousins -- has this to say about his play. It is a fact-based argument, and I warn you ... it's irrefutable.

The offense is scoring almost eight points per game more than expected on Cousins’s throws this season, even including the slow start, making his current campaign on track to be worth in excess of $47 million in 2019

To catch you up, he's referring to Expected Points per Throw, which is fast becoming the gold standard for analyzing quarterback play in the NFL. It's defined as the number of points scored above what would be expected given the down, distance and field position of each play. It's comparable to WAR in baseball, a metric used by analysts to determine MLB players' dollar value.

To reiterate the quote, the offense is scoring almost eight points per game more than expected on Cousins’s throws this season, even including the slow start to the season in the first four games. Over the past four seasons, NFL teams spent an average of $372,396 in cap dollars for every point added by their quarterbacks.

That makes Cousins' value this season to be $47.2 million.

Link to the article.

Last season, his value was set at just $1.1 million, an awful number, especially compared to his actual cap hit. But even with that season and the first four games of this season factored in, Cousins has a total 2-year cap value greater than the sum of his contract.

In other words, Kirk Cousins is actually a bargain.

Remember, these are the Next Gen stats that so many of you love, and they're cited by a newspaper that was almost never kind to Kirk Cousins.

So there you have it. Haters, go ahead and try to shoot holes in this argument. It's pretty much heavy armor plated, but feel free to waste bullets.

[Dames]

Thanks for posting! That was an enjoyable read.

If he keeps this up, we definitely have a chance to make a splash in the playoffs.

[Pondering Her Percy]

I posted this in another thread, but I feel it deserves space of its own.

Let's put an end to this stupid "Cousins is overpaid" debate right now.

Neil Greenberg, writing for the Washington Post -- a newspaper that was rarely kind to Kirk Cousins -- has this to say about his play. It is a fact-based argument, and I warn you ... it's irrefutable.

The offense is scoring almost eight points per game more than expected on Cousins’s throws this season, even including the slow start, making his current campaign on track to be worth in excess of $47 million in 2019

To catch you up, he's referring to Expected Points per Throw, which is fast becoming the gold standard for analyzing quarterback play in the NFL. It's defined as the number of points scored above what would be expected given the down, distance and field position of each play. It's comparable to WAR in baseball, a metric used by analysts to determine MLB players' dollar value.

To reiterate the quote, the offense is scoring almost eight points per game more than expected on Cousins’s throws this season, even including the slow start to the season in the first four games. Over the past four seasons, NFL teams spent an average of $372,396 in cap dollars for every point added by their quarterbacks.

That makes Cousins' value this season to be $47.2 million.

Link to the article.

Last season, his value was set at just $1.1 million, an awful number, especially compared to his actual cap hit. But even with that season and the first four games of this season factored in, Cousins has a total 2-year cap value greater than the sum of his contract.

In other words, Kirk Cousins is actually a bargain.

Remember, these are the Next Gen stats that so many of you love, and they're cited by a newspaper that was almost never kind to Kirk Cousins.

So there you have it. Haters, go ahead and try to shoot holes in this argument. It's pretty much heavy armor plated, but feel free to waste bullets.

Excellent post Kapp. I’m just as sick of hearing the constant “million dollar man” QB argument with cousins. Some great facts right here. Very interested to see what the haters have to say about this one. They may have no choice BUT to stay silent.

And in regards to next gen stats and as a random side note I just saw a tweet from PFF Vikings giving our current offensive line grades. I know there are a couple out there, aka the cousins haters, that like to say “This OL is giving cousins the most time to throw in the nfl”.

According to PFF our current OL units pass blocking grade:

2018: 63.6 (27th)
2019: 64.5 (25th)

^As you can see, a marginal difference in pass blocking efficiency. And I have continued to say all year that they are still not a good pass blocking unit. The success in the pass game this year is because this offense is finally balanced. Which it wasn’t even close to being balanced last year. And cousins has been tearing it up.

Our current OL unite run blocking grade:

2018: 53.0 (25th)
2019: 63.3 (11th)

^As expected. Given how we’re currently running the ball, it’s going to show here and it does. Last year we didn’t run the ball well (or hardly at all). I continued to say last year, I don’t care what anyone says, we could at WORST be an average running team with cook and Murray in the back there. Flip just refused to. He didn’t make any sort of effort whatsoever to balance the offense. And it showed. This year we are balanced. Nobody can tell me Kline and Bradbury make THAT much of a difference compared to what we had last year. I’m sure they made it better, especially Bradbury, but to jump up that much, isn’t because of him. It’s because of these coordinators balancing the offense.

Regardless, the weakness is pass blocking is still showing whether people choose to ignore it or not based on some stupid time to throw stat. It’s still not good and it still needs to be addressed. So hopefully someone isn’t crazy enough to try and say this OL is why cousins is having the year he is. Because that’s not the case

[Maelstrom88]

Cousins is a great leader, humble, has great work ethic, and is a very good quarterback. Has he shown the ability to be clutch? That's debatable. However, it would be very difficult to get someone better. This off-season they need to continue building up the offensive line. I think they have two good ones in O Neil and Bradury but all other spots need an upgrade.

[StumpHunter]

Regardless, the weakness is pass blocking is still showing whether people choose to ignore it or not based on some stupid time to throw stat. It’s still not good and it still needs to be addressed. So hopefully someone isn’t crazy enough to try and say this OL is why cousins is having the year he is. Because that’s not the case

How about sack % where they are 13th despite the QB having the longest time to throw in the NFL?

Or power run blocking where they are 9th, or run stuff % where they are the 6th lowest? Adjusted line yards where they are 5th.
Stupid stats that don't mean anything compared to a PFF grade.

Actual results on the field versus what is essentially an arbitrary grade. Which one matters the most in the W column?

[StumpHunter]

Yikes, it says Cousins was worth less than the average backup QB last season.

[Dames]

Yikes, it says Cousins was worth less than the average backup QB last season.

Well, he was kinda terrible last year. I attribute some of it to scheme, but he wasn't good regardless. No way around it.

This year, he's mostly phenomenal. We'll see if it holds up, but it's been very good for a long stretch, and is more than earning his paycheck.

I think it's too early to discuss extension, but that's generally how these things go. I'm hopeful that if they extend, that they'll be able to hold back on the fully guaranteed money. That can of worms is open now though, so we'll see.

[S197]

What the author fails to factor in is opportunity cost. Now this is admittedly very difficult because it requires a lot of assumptions but he should not gloss over this important fact. When you have a salary cap, if you allocate a large % to one individual, you simply have to do with less elsewhere.

In a vacuum with no cap, his contract looks like a deal. But there is a lot of evidence that huge QB contracts are not helpful and can be even detrimental to a team. Stafford as an example. Goff looks like another. Wentz could be one more. Even Brees, they are going to carry so much dead cap for YEARS when he retires because they keep pushing it out.

It's not Cousins fault he got paid. And he's living up to his contract, at least this year. The problem is we're in this position because Rick neglects the QB position. So we're forced to pay a huge contract or panic draft. Favre was a 41 year old QB and we had zero contingency plan for him. That's insane. And it happened over and over. Meanwhile the team that drafted our $84M QB took him after they absolutely gave away the farm for RG3. That's how you draft. I mean once in the last decade, grab a mid-round QB. Seems reasonable no? Take a look at the last mid round QB we drafted.

The only reason you go "all in" on a huge QB contract is if you're in your championship window. You don't do it to end up a 6th seed like the Vikings likely will. I'm sure they thought they were in the window but clearly they're not and I venture to guess people will lose jobs because of this situation. We are in cap hell next year. Nearly dead last in the NFL. That's not a bargain contract, it's an anchor.

[The negotiator]

Yikes, it says Cousins was worth less than the average backup QB last season.

Kapp covered that in his opening post stating that Cousins value was 1.1M last year.

[Dames]

What the author fails to factor in is opportunity cost. Now this is admittedly very difficult because it requires a lot of assumptions but he should not gloss over this important fact. When you have a salary cap, if you allocate a large % to one individual, you simply have to do with less elsewhere.

In a vacuum with no cap, his contract looks like a deal. But there is a lot of evidence that huge QB contracts are not helpful and can be even detrimental to a team. Stafford as an example. Goff looks like another. Wentz could be one more. Even Brees, they are going to carry so much dead cap for YEARS when he retires because they keep pushing it out.

That's all fine and dandy, but name another QB we could have realistically had instead of him that would be producing anything remotely close to what he's doing this year. Is there a draft pick that is playing well enough right now that we would be happy with? Last year there was an argument, and plenty of QBs who could have produced the same. Not this year. Not by a long shot.

Plus, I think the premise of the article is using the salary cap, and he is saying Kirk is worth X percentage of the cap. Maybe I'm misreading it.

The issue with opportunity cost is nobody really can say what we actually missed out on. There is speculation that we may miss out on signing some guys next year, but that has yet to play out. MAYBE we could have gone in for some better talent on the O line, but is there a FA that is really shining right now that we missed on? Not that I'm aware of. It's a lot of maybes and what ifs, but honestly none of it makes us that much better if we don't have the QB in the first place.

The only reason you go "all in" on a huge QB contract is if you're in your championship window. You don't do it to end up a 6th seed like the Vikings likely will. I'm sure they thought they were in the window but clearly they're not and I venture to guess people will lose jobs because of this situation.

I don't think that's clear at all. We are currently in a good position for the playoffs, even if it's only a WC. You are writing them off way too early man. We have a load of talent. We've lost some close games against very good teams, and we haven't had arguably our best WR for much of it. This season is far from over. If it plays out like you think, then feel free to call it as it is, but let's not call it dead before it even starts.

[CharVike]

What the author fails to factor in is opportunity cost. Now this is admittedly very difficult because it requires a lot of assumptions but he should not gloss over this important fact. When you have a salary cap, if you allocate a large % to one individual, you simply have to do with less elsewhere.

In a vacuum with no cap, his contract looks like a deal. But there is a lot of evidence that huge QB contracts are not helpful and can be even detrimental to a team. Stafford as an example. Goff looks like another. Wentz could be one more. Even Brees, they are going to carry so much dead cap for YEARS when he retires because they keep pushing it out.

It's not Cousins fault he got paid. And he's living up to his contract, at least this year. The problem is we're in this position because Rick neglects the QB position. So we're forced to pay a huge contract or panic draft. Favre was a 41 year old QB and we had zero contingency plan for him. That's insane. And it happened over and over. Meanwhile the team that drafted our $84M QB took him after they absolutely gave away the farm for RG3. That's how you draft. I mean once in the last decade, grab a mid-round QB. Seems reasonable no? Take a look at the last mid round QB we drafted.

The only reason you go "all in" on a huge QB contract is if you're in your championship window. You don't do it to end up a 6th seed like the Vikings likely will. I'm sure they thought they were in the window but clearly they're not and I venture to guess people will lose jobs because of this situation. We are in cap hell next year. Nearly dead last in the NFL. That's not a bargain contract, it's an anchor.

Well the Packers went all in for their QB. How did they know they are in a championship window? They were 13-18-1 in 2017 and 2018. I wouldn't call that a championship window. That's a rebuild deal IMO. The Falcons did the same thing. They aren't that good this year. Speilman got a good QB via FA. Many teams wanted him. We had Case who lead us to a 13-3 record and a miracle playoff win. Speilman thought we were in the window. He knew Case wasn't the guy so he signed Cousins. I thought it was a good move. A 13-3 team that made it to the Champ game is in the window. The team slipped big time last year. We won't hit that 13 win season this year. If we miss the playoffs I wouldn't be shocked. Being a 6 seed isn't the best deal either. Can this team win at SF or GB?The entire team isn't playing like they did in that 13 win season. Our maybe the schedule has something to do with that. Now it looks like the Packers are in the Champ window again. Do we rebuild at this point? Trade Cousins if he's willing to accept it? Get the draft picks? Elway would take him. Fire the HC? Get some players via FA. I don't know the answer. But the ultimate goal is slowly slipping away for us. Making the playoffs is slipping away.

[J. Kapp 11]

What the author fails to factor in is opportunity cost. Now this is admittedly very difficult because it requires a lot of assumptions but he should not gloss over this important fact. When you have a salary cap, if you allocate a large % to one individual, you simply have to do with less elsewhere.

In a vacuum with no cap, his contract looks like a deal. But there is a lot of evidence that huge QB contracts are not helpful and can be even detrimental to a team. Stafford as an example. Goff looks like another. Wentz could be one more. Even Brees, they are going to carry so much dead cap for YEARS when he retires because they keep pushing it out.

It's not Cousins fault he got paid. And he's living up to his contract, at least this year. The problem is we're in this position because Rick neglects the QB position. So we're forced to pay a huge contract or panic draft. Favre was a 41 year old QB and we had zero contingency plan for him. That's insane. And it happened over and over. Meanwhile the team that drafted our $84M QB took him after they absolutely gave away the farm for RG3. That's how you draft. I mean once in the last decade, grab a mid-round QB. Seems reasonable no? Take a look at the last mid round QB we drafted.

The only reason you go "all in" on a huge QB contract is if you're in your championship window. You don't do it to end up a 6th seed like the Vikings likely will. I'm sure they thought they were in the window but clearly they're not and I venture to guess people will lose jobs because of this situation. We are in cap hell next year. Nearly dead last in the NFL. That's not a bargain contract, it's an anchor.

The cap is a good point. We're in cap hell right now, in part because of Cousins' contract. But only in part.

We have a lot of guys who are in the top 25% of salaries at their position. Diggs is at $12.5 million ($14.5M next year). Rhodes is at $13.3M. Joseph is at $10.7M. Reiff $11M. Waynes $9M. Harry makes $10.75M. I mean, a LOT of $10M+ salaries. I'm not making any kind of editorial on whether they deserve it. But that's a lot of dudes making top dollar.

I believe what you'll see next year is that Cousins will be restructured and extended, much like New England did with Tom Brady. Less money next year, more years, more guaranteed money, extremely back-loaded. That will alleviate some of the cap misery. With only $4.8 million in dead cap next year, Rhodes may well be gone (we'd gain $8 million in cap space). It's possible they trade him, but his value has to be very low, and who's gonna want to pay him $13 million? Joseph's dead cap is only $2.4 million -- we'd save more than $11 million in cap space by cutting him, so the big man is as good as gone. We're gonna need that extra cap space because Thielen jumps way up next year, as does Diggs. We also need help at O-line and at corner.

The issue right now, in 2019, is the OTHER guys who are not playing up to their salaries -- Rhodes and Joseph, for example, and Thielen missing 5+ games -- not Cousins.

[S197]

What the author fails to factor in is opportunity cost. Now this is admittedly very difficult because it requires a lot of assumptions but he should not gloss over this important fact. When you have a salary cap, if you allocate a large % to one individual, you simply have to do with less elsewhere.

In a vacuum with no cap, his contract looks like a deal. But there is a lot of evidence that huge QB contracts are not helpful and can be even detrimental to a team. Stafford as an example. Goff looks like another. Wentz could be one more. Even Brees, they are going to carry so much dead cap for YEARS when he retires because they keep pushing it out.

That's all fine and dandy, but name another QB we could have realistically had instead of him that would be producing anything remotely close to what he's doing this year. Is there a draft pick that is playing well enough right now that we would be happy with? Last year there was an argument, and plenty of QBs who could have produced the same. Not this year. Not by a long shot.

Plus, I think the premise of the article is using the salary cap, and he is saying Kirk is worth X percentage of the cap. Maybe I'm misreading it.

The issue with opportunity cost is nobody really can say what we actually missed out on. There is speculation that we may miss out on signing some guys next year, but that has yet to play out. MAYBE we could have gone in for some better talent on the O line, but is there a FA that is really shining right now that we missed on? Not that I'm aware of. It's a lot of maybes and what ifs, but honestly none of it makes us that much better if we don't have the QB in the first place.

The only reason you go "all in" on a huge QB contract is if you're in your championship window. You don't do it to end up a 6th seed like the Vikings likely will. I'm sure they thought they were in the window but clearly they're not and I venture to guess people will lose jobs because of this situation.

I don't think that's clear at all. We are currently in a good position for the playoffs, even if it's only a WC. You are writing them off way too early man. We have a load of talent. We've lost some close games against very good teams, and we haven't had arguably our best WR for much of it. This season is far from over. If it plays out like you think, then feel free to call it as it is, but let's not call it dead before it even starts.

There was no better option than Cousins last year. No argument there. What I'm saying is we were put in that predicament because of a DECADE of mismanagement at the position. Like I said, take a look at the last mid-round QB drafted under Spielman. Be prepared to scroll pretty far.

The game plan was to name a starter and simply bury our head in the sand if they retire or don't work out. The backup plan was your Cassel, Josh Freeman, Shaun Hill's of the world. Supplemented with UDFAs like Sloter, Heinicke, Thigpen and numerous other no names. Keenum was really the only backup that has worked out in the last 10 years. It's been a constant carousel.

Maybe you can get away with that when you have continuity at QB but who is the last QB to play 2 full seasons back to back? What makes it worse is Rick insists on trading back over and over accumulating 10+ picks per year and yet uses none of them for arguably the most important position on the field. I don't know how to reconcile that.

There's a saying, you miss 100% of the shots you never take. I'm not saying use a pick every single year but zero in the last decade? C'mon, you have to try. When you don't it leads to panic drafting guys like Ponder or having to pay huge sums to guys like Cousins.

[S197]

What the author fails to factor in is opportunity cost. Now this is admittedly very difficult because it requires a lot of assumptions but he should not gloss over this important fact. When you have a salary cap, if you allocate a large % to one individual, you simply have to do with less elsewhere.

In a vacuum with no cap, his contract looks like a deal. But there is a lot of evidence that huge QB contracts are not helpful and can be even detrimental to a team. Stafford as an example. Goff looks like another. Wentz could be one more. Even Brees, they are going to carry so much dead cap for YEARS when he retires because they keep pushing it out.

It's not Cousins fault he got paid. And he's living up to his contract, at least this year. The problem is we're in this position because Rick neglects the QB position. So we're forced to pay a huge contract or panic draft. Favre was a 41 year old QB and we had zero contingency plan for him. That's insane. And it happened over and over. Meanwhile the team that drafted our $84M QB took him after they absolutely gave away the farm for RG3. That's how you draft. I mean once in the last decade, grab a mid-round QB. Seems reasonable no? Take a look at the last mid round QB we drafted.

The only reason you go "all in" on a huge QB contract is if you're in your championship window. You don't do it to end up a 6th seed like the Vikings likely will. I'm sure they thought they were in the window but clearly they're not and I venture to guess people will lose jobs because of this situation. We are in cap hell next year. Nearly dead last in the NFL. That's not a bargain contract, it's an anchor.

The cap is a good point. We're in cap hell right now, in part because of Cousins' contract. But only in part.

We have a lot of guys who are in the top 25% of salaries at their position. Diggs is at $12.5 million ($14.5M next year). Rhodes is at $13.3M. Joseph is at $10.7M. Reiff $11M. Waynes $9M. Harry makes $10.75M. I mean, a LOT of $10M+ salaries. I'm not making any kind of editorial on whether they deserve it. But that's a lot of dudes making top dollar.

I believe what you'll see next year is that Cousins will be restructured and extended, much like New England did with Tom Brady. Less money next year, more years, more guaranteed money, extremely back-loaded. That will alleviate some of the cap misery. With only $4.8 million in dead cap next year, Rhodes may well be gone (we'd gain $8 million in cap space). It's possible they trade him, but his value has to be very low, and who's gonna want to pay him $13 million? Joseph's dead cap is only $2.4 million -- we'd save more than $11 million in cap space by cutting him, so the big man is as good as gone. We're gonna need that extra cap space because Thielen jumps way up next year, as does Diggs. We also need help at O-line and at corner.

The issue right now, in 2019, is the OTHER guys who are not playing up to their salaries -- Rhodes and Joseph, for example, and Thielen missing 5+ games -- not Cousins.

It's possible Cousins restructures but he has the leverage because his contract is fully guaranteed. Even if he does, it just kicks the can further down the road, the hit doesn't go away. It's a Drew Brees situation.

I think Reiff and Linval are prime casualties but Waynes and Alexander need contracts. Dalvin will be on his last year. I think Everson has the option to be a free agent now. That alone could suck up the space they create and still put them in a bind for any FA signings. Or they let those guys go and hope to replace them with cheaper rookies or lower tier signings.

You need to eventually pay the Piper. I'm more inclined to just suck it up and pay Kirk next year than a perpetual cap constraint situation.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Regardless, the weakness is pass blocking is still showing whether people choose to ignore it or not based on some stupid time to throw stat. It’s still not good and it still needs to be addressed. So hopefully someone isn’t crazy enough to try and say this OL is why cousins is having the year he is. Because that’s not the case

How about sack % where they are 13th despite the QB having the longest time to throw in the NFL?

Or power run blocking where they are 9th, or run stuff % where they are the 6th lowest? Adjusted line yards where they are 5th.
Stupid stats that don't mean anything compared to a PFF grade.

Actual results on the field versus what is essentially an arbitrary grade. Which one matters the most in the W column?

Not sure why you’re bringing up anything to do with this OL run blocking. I said that’s where the giant improvement was in the original post. I said the PASS blocking is still the problem. But I’m glad you went to google and tried to find one pass blocking stat they were good in so you could use it in your argument. The main reason sacks are down from last year is because they are getting him outside the pocket and not sitting directly behind a bunch of trash cans like flip did. Have you seen cousins numbers outside the pocket?! They are insane.

But either way, I don’t know how many times I have to prove your “time to throw” stat faulty for you to stop bringing it up in 95% of your cousins arguments. He’s playing like a top QB in this league right now stump, it’s ok for you to admit that. He’s outplaying his contract right now. It’s ok for you to admit that. But instead you have to sit here and continue to fight it. Just stop. You’re wasting your time.

If you think our OL is good and constantly defend Xavier Rhodes, all I can say is I’m glad you aren’t our GM. You defend this OL and Rhodes but it pains you to say Cousins is a good quarterback and playing like a top QB? Given how this season is going....that absolutely baffles me and it shows me that you really don’t know what you’re talking about. Maybe I’ve been the one wasting my time arguing with you