WR fits for the Vikings

[dead_poet]

Article mentions:

1. Kevin White
2. Rashad Greene (FSU)
3. Sammie Coates (Clemson)
4. Ty Montgomery (Stanford)
5. Kenny Bell (Nebraska)
6. Phillip Dorsett (Miami, FL)
7. Justin Hardy (East Carolina)
8. Tony Lippett (Michigan State)
9. Tre McBride (William & Mary)

Noticeable omissions: Cooper, Greene-Beckham & Parker

Like every one of the models so far, one year of data without the ability to correct for cost of acquisition and the inability to really deal with exceptions means it’s speculative at best and trivia at worst, but the Vikings have at least been fairly consistent about what they require at the receiver position. The profile of a Vikings receiver is generally one that can jump high and has a good showing in agility tests—with only one exception to the cutoffs of a 36” vertical or higher and a three-cone of 7.05 seconds or lower.

In this year’s rich draft of receivers, 13 of the 33 players who participated in the qualifying drills made the cut, making the filter a bit generous compared to the linebacker or defensive end filters.

http://vikingsjournal.com/_/minnesota-v ... eiver-r440

[fiestavike]

Article mentions:

1. Kevin White
2. Rashad Greene (FSU)
3. Sammie Coates (Clemson)
4. Ty Montgomery (Stanford)
5. Kenny Bell (Nebraska)
6. Phillip Dorsett (Miami, FL)
7. Justin Hardy (East Carolina)
8. Tony Lippett (Michigan State)
9. Tre McBride (William & Mary)

Noticeable omissions: Cooper, Greene-Beckham & Parker
http://vikingsjournal.com/_/minnesota-v ... eiver-r440

Sammie Coates seems like a likely option in the 2nd round if he's still available. I always recall Norv using big tall receivers in his previous stints as a coordinator and head coach.

[dead_poet]

Wide Receiver Rankings

http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/2015-n ... kings.html

[Texas Vike]

Wide Receiver Rankings

http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/2015-n ... kings.html

I've read a fair number of folks who seem to know what they're talking about rank Devante Parker a lot lower than some of the prominent "draft gurus" have. It's interesting just how "all over the place" people's opinions on him are. He could go at 11 or 2nd round, it seems.

[Mothman]

I've read a fair number of folks who seem to know what they're talking about rank Devante Parker a lot lower than some of the prominent "draft gurus" have. It's interesting just how "all over the place" people's opinions on him are. He could go at 11 or 2nd round, it seems.

Interesting that you should mention that sincethis was posted on the Star Tribune site today:

http://blog.startribune.com/sports/acce ... nte-parker

It contains some doubts about parker and lots of reference to that most mysterious and ill-defined of football positions, "#1 receiver".

[Texas Vike]

Interesting that you should mention that sincethis was posted on the Star Tribune site today:

http://blog.startribune.com/sports/acce ... nte-parker

It contains some doubts about parker and lots of reference to that most mysterious and ill-defined of football positions, "#1 receiver".

If I'm remembering correctly (and reading through the lines a bit) you're calling the idea of "#1 WR" into question, right? I get it, sure, it's fuzzy and perhaps wholly unnecessary. I'm more concerned about Parker's lack of upper body strength and I wonder just how well he'll handle tighter coverages, as the writer of that strib piece mentions. I'd prefer a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round this year, unless it's Cooper at 11.

[Mothman]

If I'm remembering correctly (and reading through the lines a bit) you're calling the idea of "#1 WR" into question, right? I get it, sure, it's fuzzy and perhaps wholly unnecessary.

It's not so much that I question the idea of a #1 receiver because I think there clearly are, and have been, some players who that description seems to fit like a glove (Rice, Moss, CC in his prime, Calvin Johnson, etc.). It's really just that I'm amused by how often the phrase gets tossed around, and the significance it's given, when what actually constitutes a #1 receiver is poorly-defined at best. people speak about the subject with such certainty but as you said, it's fuzzy.

In the context of the sort of analysis Tesfatsion was writing about Parker for the Strib, I don't even find it terribly relevant. I understand that others might though. when it comes to receivers, I'm much more concerned with overall fit in the context of the offense.

I'm more concerned about Parker's lack of upper body strength and I wonder just how well he'll handle tighter coverages, as the writer of that strib piece mentions. I'd prefer a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round this year, unless it's Cooper at 11.

I don't find the upper body strength too concerning because that's the sort of thing that can be addressed in the weight room and as a player matures. His ability to get off the line against press coverage is a bit of a concern though, based on what I've read. I still think the X factor with parker, as it pertains to the Vikes, is his history with Bridgewater. f there's enough chemistry there, I think that raises his value.

I'd definitely rather have Cooper but I think he'll be long gone at #11. I doubt he he'll make it out of the top 5 and if he does, I doubt it will be by much.

[Texas Vike]

It's not so much that I question the idea of a #1 receiver because I think there clearly are, and have been, some players who that description seems to fit like a glove (Rice, Moss, CC in his prime, Calvin Johnson, etc.). It's really just that I'm amused by how often the phrase gets tossed around, and the significance it's given, when what actually constitutes a #1 receiver is poorly-defined at best. people speak about the subject with such certainty but as you said, it's fuzzy.

In the context of the sort of analysis Tesfatsion was writing about Parker for the Strib, I don't even find it terribly relevant. I understand that others might though. when it comes to receivers, I'm much more concerned with overall fit in the context of the offense.
I don't find the upper body strength too concerning because that's the sort of thing that can be addressed in the weight room and as a player matures. His ability to get off the line against press coverage is a bit of a concern though, based on what I've read. I still think the X factor with parker, as it pertains to the Vikes, is his history with Bridgewater. f there's enough chemistry there, I think that raises his value.

I'd definitely rather have Cooper but I think he'll be long gone at #11. I doubt he he'll make it out of the top 5 and if he does, I doubt it will be by much.

My take is, if a guy is worth #11 he better be ready to make an impact now and that includes being built correctly (now) to excel at the NFL level. For WR, he has to be able to deal with press coverage and it sounds like that may be an issue for him. I get the feeling that he may be one of the guys that Spielman was alluding to when he said they've been linked to guys that they wouldn't even think about at 11. But that's just a wild guess. Heck, maybe he's referring to Waynes or maybe he's just lying through his (artificially whitened) teeth.

[Mothman]

My take is, if a guy is worth #11 he better be ready to make an impact now and that includes being built correctly (now) to excel at the NFL level.

That's perfectly understandable. My feeling is that many players who succeed in the NFL enter the league without the ideal physical characteristics it takes to excel and then excel anyway. Some do so faster than others but I think it's possible to worry too much about size and measurables when being a good football player is what matters most. I assume the vast majority of rookie players will have plenty of work to do on their game when they become pros and it seems like many of them end up really benefitting from a few years of pro-level strength and conditioning too.

For WR, he has to be able to deal with press coverage and it sounds like that may be an issue for him. I get the feeling that he may be one of the guys that Spielman was alluding to when he said they've been linked to guys that they wouldn't even think about at 11. But that's just a wild guess.

Perhaps not so wild... I've had the same thought. Maybe that just means we're both wild guessers.

Anyway, I have no idea if Parker is worth the 11th pick or not or whether his physical shortcomings will be a significant factor at the next level in 2015. However, I think a certain "paralysis by analysis" occurs by this time every year and it becomes easy to let perceived flaws in a player overshadow how much they really have to offer, which leads to things like Keenan Allen falling all the way to the 76th pick in the draft. I think teams should be wary of that sort of over-analysis so it doesn't cloud their judgment and lead to them passing on a really good player.

[John_Viveiros]

They all had to have had a heart-to-heart with Teddy and asked him what he thought of Parker. Hopefully Teddy was honest.

I hadn't realized that his college stats were so...pedestrian. He never went over a thousand yards in a season (I realize he was on that kind of pace last season). His best season would have made him the 53rd best yardage guy in the NCAA last year. I know stats aren't everything, but it seems hard for me to see a guy as a consistent 1200 yard/yr guy (how I view a #1 receiver) if he couldn't do that with the best pro-ready college QB in 2013 and playing against college defenses.

So if he falls to round 2, I say grab him. Otherwise, I'm not sure I like the risk of picking up 'Bernard Berrian' (four years with around 800 yards receiving) with pick #11.

Keenan Allen came back to earth a bit in 2014. His numbers were 77 catches for 783 yards (10.2) with a long of 35 yards and only 4 TD's.

[Cliff]

They all had to have had a heart-to-heart with Teddy and asked him what he thought of Parker. Hopefully Teddy was honest.

I hadn't realized that his college stats were so...pedestrian. He never went over a thousand yards in a season (I realize he was on that kind of pace last season). His best season would have made him the 53rd best yardage guy in the NCAA last year. I know stats aren't everything, but it seems hard for me to see a guy as a consistent 1200 yard/yr guy (how I view a #1 receiver) if he couldn't do that with the best pro-ready college QB in 2013 and playing against college defenses.

So if he falls to round 2, I say grab him. Otherwise, I'm not sure I like the risk of picking up 'Bernard Berrian' (four years with around 800 yards receiving) with pick #11.

Keenan Allen came back to earth a bit in 2014. His numbers were 77 catches for 783 yards (10.2) with a long of 35 yards and only 4 TD's.

I think probably the biggest reason he's looked at as a top prospect by some is the length of his 2014 season. The stat totals are a bit misleading because he was out the first 6 games. He got 43 catches for 855 yards and 5 TDs over just 6 games. Averaged 19 yards per catch and 142 yards per game. At that pace he would have had 3rd overall receiving yards in the NCAA last year not just over 1,000.

It's hard to place him, I think, because his production was still 'on pace' to be among the best but he didn't actually produce. If you go with theoretical Parker he's definitely 1st round talent. If you go with actual production he's probably early 2nd instead.

[dead_poet]

Here's a bit of tape to watch Parker vs. probably the best secondary he faced all season and one of the draft's top "second tier" corners in P.J. Williams:



What stands out immediately is his size. Williams is 6', not bad for a corner. Parker is listed at only three inches taller but looks more like five inches.

In the first play I can't help but think that's busted coverage.

He's a fluid runner.

They respect him deep by playing off him a lot. He takes advantage often with free releases and open space for easy pitch and catches (this was evidenced a lot during 2014). Not a impact make-you-miss type of YAC guy but he has good (not great) speed and some open field moves. My opinion here is probably slightly skewed by watching Harvin & Patterson (best in the business as far as this goes).

Not a great route-runner (yet). Relies a lot on athleticism. Seems to consistently get a step or two on corners deep if he wins the release. His speed is often not accounted for by his QB as rarely does he catch deep balls in stride.

Has trouble beating press coverage more often than you'd like in a first-round prospect. Not very aggressive hand fighting.

Good hands. "Plucks" ball out of the air well but doesn't win many "contested catches" that aren't the high ones that give him the advantage. Can be out-physicaled on these.

There was an obvious offensive PI push-off that wasn't called. He did this a bit in 2014.

Willing but not great blocker.

Does have good "my ball" mentality when the ball is in the air.

The A.J. Green comparisons aren't completely without merit but he's nowhere near the tactician coming out as Green was.

He dealt with some pretty poor QB play in 2014. The Georgia game in particular the passing was pretty bad. He made one bad drop that ended up as a pick but overall he did much of what he could. If I'm not mistaken Louisville's starting QB was lost to the season with a knee injury on November 8. So he played with the backup for half his games and I think maybe even the third-string guy for the last two (the bowl game he played with the third-stringer making his first career start). So that may add some additional perspective. It actually may be a bit scary to think what he could do with a more accurate QB as he develops.

Georgia bowl tape: