KAM/KOC possible extensions

[psjordan]

Why couldn’t it be said that he was unlucky in the draft?

Because moving down from what, 12th to 30th to just swap second round picks is not a matter of bad luck. Not only didn't KAM get value in that trade, he left some really good players on the board for others. Kyle Hamilton comes immediately to mind.

If you’re going to blame him for one area, then it’s only fair to credit him for the other.

Is there an element of luck to drafting? Sure there is. Is it pure luck though? There are GMs that consistently draft well. There is an element of skill and hard work involved in good drafting. I'm just not sure KAM has put enough evidence of that on tape as it were to justify giving him a pass.

Of course, none of this actually matters. They’re going to extend him. We all know it.

Yup, agree with you, and that isn't the end of the world. KAM isn't one of the terrible 4 GM's of the "Football Franchise Apocalypse", so he's not going to ruin the team. I just don't know if he has what it takes to get them over the top, either.

Where is the Jim Finks of this generation? Is that KAM? I think we both agree it is not, but that is the type of GM a team needs if it's going to enjoy a long stretch of success.

Kind of agree with Kapp on this one. What if Khyree Jackson became a stud at DB? What if McCarthy stayed healthy, won the starter's job (or at least took over in game 6) and had a Jayden Daniels year?

I agree on the criticism of misses in the draft, but there certainly was some really bad luck in the draft which took away chances for things to even out. I don't ever agree with cherry-picking "well this guy was picked after our guy" type logic unless it's over a 10 year span. I mean, even the fantastic GM Howie Roseman took Jalen Reagor before JJ.

And others have made the point that I am a HUGE believer in - draft picks need good coaching to develop. It doesn't start and stop with where players are picked.

[VikingLord]

I agree on the criticism of misses in the draft, but there certainly was some really bad luck in the draft which took away chances for things to even out. I don't ever agree with cherry-picking "well this guy was picked after our guy" type logic unless it's over a 10 year span. I mean, even the fantastic GM Howie Roseman took Jalen Reagor before JJ.

That wasn't my criticism though - at least in KAM's first draft. He didn't pick a guy ahead of a player like Kyle Hamilton and just miss on him - he traded out of the spot where he could have taken a player like Kyle Hamilton to take a lesser prospect. I don't view that as quite the same thing.

And for some strange reason, when KAM was asked about why he made that move he talked about trying to resolve talent issues in the secondary in one swing even though on net he wound up with essentially the same number of swings. He traded a higher first rounder for a much lower one and swapped 2nd rounders with the Lions. So it was still 2 picks. His logic on that one was puzzling to say the least, and the results speak for themselves.

I'm not surprised KAM hasn't been extended yet, and part of me hopes it is because the Vikings recognize that his performance, in the draft at least, has left a lot to be desired to this point.

[psjordan]

I agree on the criticism of misses in the draft, but there certainly was some really bad luck in the draft which took away chances for things to even out. I don't ever agree with cherry-picking "well this guy was picked after our guy" type logic unless it's over a 10 year span. I mean, even the fantastic GM Howie Roseman took Jalen Reagor before JJ.

That wasn't my criticism though - at least in KAM's first draft. He didn't pick a guy ahead of a player like Kyle Hamilton and just miss on him - he traded out of the spot where he could have taken a player like Kyle Hamilton to take a lesser prospect. I don't view that as quite the same thing.

And for some strange reason, when KAM was asked about why he made that move he talked about trying to resolve talent issues in the secondary in one swing even though on net he wound up with essentially the same number of swings. He traded a higher first rounder for a much lower one and swapped 2nd rounders with the Lions. So it was still 2 picks. His logic on that one was puzzling to say the least, and the results speak for themselves.

I'm not surprised KAM hasn't been extended yet, and part of me hopes it is because the Vikings recognize that his performance, in the draft at least, has left a lot to be desired to this point.

Yeah I see your point on the trade-down scenario. I think KAM hasn't been extended yet (but he will be) due to the fact KOC was a higher priority, and the team wanting KOC to KNOW he was a higher priority.

I think criticisms of KAM's drafting prowess are valid. I'm very concerned he might have whiffed on DTurner. I watched him on most of his snaps (tube and in person), and boy he does not look strong enough, quick enough or big enough to overpower anybody on a regular basis. He was compared to Will Anderson pre-draft and he is nowhere NEAR that level. Not sure he ever will be, and that would be a huge miss for KAM.

I also think any delay in negotiations is typically due to the sides not agreeing on value, which is not going to end up in KAM's favor. If the team values KAM substantially less than KAM feels he is worth, that may drag things out. But I have not heard of any teams lining up to "trade for" KAM, that's for sure.

[VikingLord]

I'm very concerned he might have whiffed on DTurner. I watched him on most of his snaps (tube and in person), and boy he does not look strong enough, quick enough or big enough to overpower anybody on a regular basis. He was compared to Will Anderson pre-draft and he is nowhere NEAR that level. Not sure he ever will be, and that would be a huge miss for KAM.

I'm hoping that the main reason Turner spent time off the field was because the guys in front of him were just that much better than he was given he's a rookie. I do know that Turner was highly regarded coming out of college and I was genuinely surprised when he fell to where the Vikings could get him. I'm not sold he was worth what KAM gave up to get him, but time will tell if he is a bust or just needed some time to mature. I liked the pick at the time on a potential basis.

I also think any delay in negotiations is typically due to the sides not agreeing on value, which is not going to end up in KAM's favor. If the team values KAM substantially less than KAM feels he is worth, that may drag things out. But I have not heard of any teams lining up to "trade for" KAM, that's for sure.

Yeah, KAM's successes to this point have mostly come through his free agent acquisitions rather than his drafts. Heck, even Ivan Pace ended up as a rookie free agent signing rather than a draft pick. I guess every GM in the league missed on that one, but I thought someone would have taken Pace in the 2nd based on his college tape and would have been happy had KAM taken him that high.

Looks like the Vikings may get a mid-3rd compensatory pick in this upcoming draft. That would be a good place to look for some IOL talent.

[IIsweet]

I wonder if the holdup is that KOC says that he needs more control of personnel and the Wilfs are going to give it to him.
KOC is much more valuable IMO right now than Kwesi. Is Kwesi OK with this? Is this a holdup in negotiations?
No idea

[Cliff]

I'm hoping that the main reason Turner spent time off the field was because the guys in front of him were just that much better than he was given he's a rookie. I do know that Turner was highly regarded coming out of college and I was genuinely surprised when he fell to where the Vikings could get him. I'm not sold he was worth what KAM gave up to get him, but time will tell if he is a bust or just needed some time to mature. I liked the pick at the time on a potential basis.

He was behind Gink on the depth chart all season and he was playing lights out. I still have a lot of hope for him.

[psjordan]

I'm hoping that the main reason Turner spent time off the field was because the guys in front of him were just that much better than he was given he's a rookie.

He was behind Gink on the depth chart all season and he was playing lights out. I still have a lot of hope for him.

I'm a lot less optimistic than you guys. Turner had over 300 snaps this year, it's not like he didn't play. All his stats were firmly "mid pack", with a woeful (bottom 25% ish) rating on pass rush. That's supposedly why we spent a ton of draft capital to get him in the first place.

If you basically give up 4-5 picks (forgot how many) to get one player, barring injury he should absolutely SHINE in the opportunities he's given. My personal opinion of his pass-rushing prowess was that it was close to pathetic. In person he seems too small and not strong or explosive enough. And he was handled 1-on-1 for the most part.

I'm certainly hoping for great strides as much as the next fan, but my spidey-sense says if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck.

[Cliff]

He was behind Gink on the depth chart all season and he was playing lights out. I still have a lot of hope for him.

I'm a lot less optimistic than you guys. Turner had over 300 snaps this year, it's not like he didn't play. All his stats were firmly "mid pack", with a woeful (bottom 25% ish) rating on pass rush. That's supposedly why we spent a ton of draft capital to get him in the first place.

If you basically give up 4-5 picks (forgot how many) to get one player, barring injury he should absolutely SHINE in the opportunities he's given. My personal opinion of his pass-rushing prowess was that it was close to pathetic. In person he seems too small and not strong or explosive enough. And he was handled 1-on-1 for the most part.

I'm certainly hoping for great strides as much as the next fan, but my spidey-sense says if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck.

I'm just not quick to give up on rookies. 300 snaps is definitely not nothing, but it is only 25% of the team's overall snaps. It might also just be that when I'm watching the game I'm not specifically looking for a given player. There's so much going on it's difficult for me to single him out and say how good or bad he was when I didn't pay particular attention to him. Maybe that's why I'm more optimistic.

[VikingLord]

He was behind Gink on the depth chart all season and he was playing lights out. I still have a lot of hope for him.

I'm a lot less optimistic than you guys. Turner had over 300 snaps this year, it's not like he didn't play. All his stats were firmly "mid pack", with a woeful (bottom 25% ish) rating on pass rush. That's supposedly why we spent a ton of draft capital to get him in the first place.

If you basically give up 4-5 picks (forgot how many) to get one player, barring injury he should absolutely SHINE in the opportunities he's given. My personal opinion of his pass-rushing prowess was that it was close to pathetic. In person he seems too small and not strong or explosive enough. And he was handled 1-on-1 for the most part.

I'm certainly hoping for great strides as much as the next fan, but my spidey-sense says if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck.

Just for reference, this is the WalterFootball scouting report on Turner (https://walterfootball.com/scoutingrepo ... turner.php) with some highlights:

Strengths:

Explosive speed off the edge
Superb athleticism
Extremely fast
Natural pass-rush ability
Good get-off
Excellent in pursuit
Potential for repertoire of pass-rushing moves
More than enough speed to get around the corner
Active hands
Uses hands and feet at same time
Agility to sink his hips/shoulder
Splash plays
Makes plays in the clutch
Developed strength
Holds ground well for his size
Will shed blocks and make tackles
Agility to dodge blockers on the run
Pursuit run defense
Very athletic
Good height and length
Upside
Good character

Weaknesses:

Needs more pass-rushing moves
Needs to learn rush angles
Needs to improve technique
Could struggle with NFL mass
Underweight to be a 4-3 defensive end

Prospect Summary:

In the passing-driven NFL, edge defenders who can get after the quarterback are always in demand. With his speed, athleticism and length, Turner has the potential to be an impactful edge defender who could have double-digit sack potential as a pro. Over three years at Alabama, he proved to be a consistent quarterback hunter.

In 2021, Will Anderson was dominating college football and causing havoc in the backfield. With Anderson commanding the attention of defenses, Turner had a fabulous freshman season, recording 8.5 sacks and 30 tackles while rotating with other defenders. In 2022, Turner played more, but his production fell to four sacks to go along with 37 tackles. He was more disruptive than those numbers indicate. As a junior, Turner generated a lot of clutch rushes for Alabama and made some huge plays in big games. Over 2023, he recorded 53 tackles, 11 sacks, 15.5 tackles for a loss and two forced fumbles. Turner produced steady pressure on the quarterback and made some clutch plays for his team.

While Turner is not the biggest of defenders, he has a natural ability to put pressure on the quarterback. Turner is quick off the ball with a fast first-step and a burst to get upfield. Thanks to his serious speed, Turner can run the arc around offensive tackles and fly to the quarterback. When he gets there, Turner will be physical and can dish out some violent hits on the signal-caller. Turner is not a dirty player who is taking cheap shots, but he will put the quarterback into the turf hard. In pursuit, Turner is a fast defender with a burst to close and is quick to flow to the ball. He can redirect to get pointed to the quarterback and is not a stiff rusher.

As good as Turner is right now as a pass rusher, he could be so much better if he gets good NFL coaching. Some sources think Turner could be a T.J. Watt-caliber rusher if he his develops pass-rushing moves and figures out technique, rush angles, depth of rush, etc. For the NFL, Turner could use more pass-rushing moves. Featuring more spins, cuts to the inside, and rip moves would help Turner when he takes on better competition who won’t be beaten by just a speed rush.

Turner also plays hard against the run, and he will make good plays of holding his ground or shedding a block to get in on a tackle. Turner has developed strength and holds his spot surprisingly well for an undersized defender. For the NFL through, Turner lacks some size to play defensive end in a base defense. In a base set, he should do some rotating with other ends to protect him and let a bigger defender handle the rush. Turner could have problems holding up against NFL mass for four quarters.

Sources from multiple teams have Turner graded as a first-round pick for the 2024 NFL Draft. They believe he probably will go as top-20 pick and could go as a top-10 choice.
Prospect Comparison:

Brian Burns. A few team sources have said Turner has a similar skill set to Burns coming out of Florida State. They said Burns was more bendy and had more developed pass-rushing moves, while Turner is stronger and tougher against the run compared to how Burns was with the Seminoles. As a pro, Turner could develop into being an edge rusher similar to Burns.

Some of that reflects what we saw, especially the part about him needing some coaching and time to develop.

Also, I think it's important to remember rookies are rookies even if they get on the field. It is very rare for rookies to come in and have immediate impact. There are some rookies that manage to do that, but most should get some time and latitude to develop no matter how highly they were drafted.

I'll be looking to see if Turner can take a big step forward this offseason, which based on everything I've read about him up to this point, I think he will.

[psjordan]

Also, I think it's important to remember rookies are rookies even if they get on the field. It is very rare for rookies to come in and have immediate impact. There are some rookies that manage to do that, but most should get some time and latitude to develop no matter how highly they were drafted.

I get all the info on Turner, I was trying to keep my posts aligned with the "KAM" piece of this thread, in that I was contrasting Turner's rookie performance with what KAM paid for him. In that context, I don't feel "a rookie is a rookie" when the price was so high. And in person I have to say he really did look undersized vs NFL OL/TE's.

I'll be looking to see if Turner can take a big step forward this offseason, which based on everything I've read about him up to this point, I think he will.

Don't get me wrong, I sure hope so. Would love nothing better for him to blossom next year.

[CharVike]

I don't know if it's the correct process to combine the GM and HC as one. If we fired KAM right now will teams be chasing after him? If so trade him to the Jags for a 2nd and 4th rounder. They seem to do things arse backwards maybe this fits.

Adofo-Mensah's experience isn't rooted in scouting and talent evaluation like most people who become NFL general managers. Where he shines is in gathering evidence from a variety of sources to make decisions. That means looking at quantitative data and models to gain advantages — which is the basis of the sports buzzword "analytics" — but also using people skills to accumulate input from various branches of the front office.

Based on the highlighted word salad I'm not sure how an evaluation is done on KAM. If it's done on the draft then an extension can't be given. Of course nobody is sure about the year 3 draft but the upcoming season will give a good indication. For this years draft he's caught in the middle. Can't move up unless he sacrifices some of next years draft so my guess is he'll move down again to collect additional picks and hope to make a few work. Hope is never a good strategy.

Perhaps KOC threw him under the bus. With all that I expect an extension.

[VikingLord]

I don't know if it's the correct process to combine the GM and HC as one. If we fired KAM right now will teams be chasing after him? If so trade him to the Jags for a 2nd and 4th rounder. They seem to do things arse backwards maybe this fits.

Adofo-Mensah's experience isn't rooted in scouting and talent evaluation like most people who become NFL general managers. Where he shines is in gathering evidence from a variety of sources to make decisions. That means looking at quantitative data and models to gain advantages — which is the basis of the sports buzzword "analytics" — but also using people skills to accumulate input from various branches of the front office.

Based on the highlighted word salad I'm not sure how an evaluation is done on KAM. If it's done on the draft then an extension can't be given. Of course nobody is sure about the year 3 draft but the upcoming season will give a good indication. For this years draft he's caught in the middle. Can't move up unless he sacrifices some of next years draft so my guess is he'll move down again to collect additional picks and hope to make a few work. Hope is never a good strategy.

Perhaps KOC threw him under the bus. With all that I expect an extension.

I think we all assume there must be some method to the madness behind the moves a given GM makes. Something based in logic that correlates with some statistical profile or a deeper analysis of the equivalent of down-and-distance decisions in an actual game.

But is there such a thing, or at least one that is proven to produce better-than-average results? And if there is, does KAM know about it and use it?

What I find most disturbing about KAM's drafting to this point is his inconsistency. Assuming he does have some magic model he employs behind the scenes to make decisions on draft day, how to reconcile that overriding philosophy with the moves he's actually made? How to reconcile his first draft, where he traded out of the 12th pick and way down into the bottom of the 1st, ignoring legit prospects like Kyle Hamilton and Jordan Davis, to take less-heralded prospects like Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth, with his action in last year's draft where he traded significant draft capital to move up to take a more heralded prospect in Turner?

I just don't get the logic there. Kyle Hamilton was a legit top safety prospect coming out, and a lot of people, myself included, were surprised he made it to the Vikings original pick in the first round. Didn't even have to trade up to get him. KAM traded out of that pick. And then a year later KAM sends a LOT of future draft capital to chase after another legit top DE/OLB pick in Turner.

Doesn't strike me that KAM really has much of a system in place at all, or if he does it isn't one that produces consistent decisions, at least in the 1st round.

[Cliff]

I don't know if it's the correct process to combine the GM and HC as one. If we fired KAM right now will teams be chasing after him? If so trade him to the Jags for a 2nd and 4th rounder. They seem to do things arse backwards maybe this fits.

Adofo-Mensah's experience isn't rooted in scouting and talent evaluation like most people who become NFL general managers. Where he shines is in gathering evidence from a variety of sources to make decisions. That means looking at quantitative data and models to gain advantages — which is the basis of the sports buzzword "analytics" — but also using people skills to accumulate input from various branches of the front office.

Based on the highlighted word salad I'm not sure how an evaluation is done on KAM. If it's done on the draft then an extension can't be given. Of course nobody is sure about the year 3 draft but the upcoming season will give a good indication. For this years draft he's caught in the middle. Can't move up unless he sacrifices some of next years draft so my guess is he'll move down again to collect additional picks and hope to make a few work. Hope is never a good strategy.

Perhaps KOC threw him under the bus. With all that I expect an extension.

I think we all assume there must be some method to the madness behind the moves a given GM makes. Something based in logic that correlates with some statistical profile or a deeper analysis of the equivalent of down-and-distance decisions in an actual game.

But is there such a thing, or at least one that is proven to produce better-than-average results? And if there is, does KAM know about it and use it?

What I find most disturbing about KAM's drafting to this point is his inconsistency. Assuming he does have some magic model he employs behind the scenes to make decisions on draft day, how to reconcile that overriding philosophy with the moves he's actually made? How to reconcile his first draft, where he traded out of the 12th pick and way down into the bottom of the 1st, ignoring legit prospects like Kyle Hamilton and Jordan Davis, to take less-heralded prospects like Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth, with his action in last year's draft where he traded significant draft capital to move up to take a more heralded prospect in Turner?

I just don't get the logic there. Kyle Hamilton was a legit top safety prospect coming out, and a lot of people, myself included, were surprised he made it to the Vikings original pick in the first round. Didn't even have to trade up to get him. KAM traded out of that pick. And then a year later KAM sends a LOT of future draft capital to chase after another legit top DE/OLB pick in Turner.

Doesn't strike me that KAM really has much of a system in place at all, or if he does it isn't one that produces consistent decisions, at least in the 1st round.

I think part of it is that they weren't actually targeting Turner originally. Or at least not realistically. He was in the top 10 in most mock drafts. I think he was a guy they had graded very highly and when he fell to #17 they couldn't help themselves. They traded with Houston about a month before the draft to get back into the 1st round at the 23rd pick. I don't think that was with Turner in mind, they just wanted to move back into the 1st round. Maybe they liked to overall talent in the draft last year and just wanted to have a better position. Maybe they wanted to have extra ammo in case the QBs weren't falling like they hoped.

In other words, when he saw Turner available and within reach he threw his "system" out of the window and went for a player he thought would be a star.

Hopefully by the end of next season he'll look like a genius and the extra 3rd and 4th rounder he gave to get him will look like chump change.

[CharVike]

I don't know if it's the correct process to combine the GM and HC as one. If we fired KAM right now will teams be chasing after him? If so trade him to the Jags for a 2nd and 4th rounder. They seem to do things arse backwards maybe this fits.

Adofo-Mensah's experience isn't rooted in scouting and talent evaluation like most people who become NFL general managers. Where he shines is in gathering evidence from a variety of sources to make decisions. That means looking at quantitative data and models to gain advantages — which is the basis of the sports buzzword "analytics" — but also using people skills to accumulate input from various branches of the front office.

Based on the highlighted word salad I'm not sure how an evaluation is done on KAM. If it's done on the draft then an extension can't be given. Of course nobody is sure about the year 3 draft but the upcoming season will give a good indication. For this years draft he's caught in the middle. Can't move up unless he sacrifices some of next years draft so my guess is he'll move down again to collect additional picks and hope to make a few work. Hope is never a good strategy.

Perhaps KOC threw him under the bus. With all that I expect an extension.

I think we all assume there must be some method to the madness behind the moves a given GM makes. Something based in logic that correlates with some statistical profile or a deeper analysis of the equivalent of down-and-distance decisions in an actual game.

But is there such a thing, or at least one that is proven to produce better-than-average results? And if there is, does KAM know about it and use it?

What I find most disturbing about KAM's drafting to this point is his inconsistency. Assuming he does have some magic model he employs behind the scenes to make decisions on draft day, how to reconcile that overriding philosophy with the moves he's actually made? How to reconcile his first draft, where he traded out of the 12th pick and way down into the bottom of the 1st, ignoring legit prospects like Kyle Hamilton and Jordan Davis, to take less-heralded prospects like Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth, with his action in last year's draft where he traded significant draft capital to move up to take a more heralded prospect in Turner?

I just don't get the logic there. Kyle Hamilton was a legit top safety prospect coming out, and a lot of people, myself included, were surprised he made it to the Vikings original pick in the first round. Didn't even have to trade up to get him. KAM traded out of that pick. And then a year later KAM sends a LOT of future draft capital to chase after another legit top DE/OLB pick in Turner.

Doesn't strike me that KAM really has much of a system in place at all, or if he does it isn't one that produces consistent decisions, at least in the 1st round.

In the end you need to draft well. That's what has made the Chiefs what they are. I didn't look but I assume that's why the Bengals can't accomplish much. They are loaded at the skills slots. In total they are beyond us because of Joe B. Right now we are a step behind the top NFC teams. We can't put up a good fight. I feel a team like the Eagles would destroy us. They are very physical. But KAM and KOC look to be joined.

[CharVike]

I think we all assume there must be some method to the madness behind the moves a given GM makes. Something based in logic that correlates with some statistical profile or a deeper analysis of the equivalent of down-and-distance decisions in an actual game.

But is there such a thing, or at least one that is proven to produce better-than-average results? And if there is, does KAM know about it and use it?

What I find most disturbing about KAM's drafting to this point is his inconsistency. Assuming he does have some magic model he employs behind the scenes to make decisions on draft day, how to reconcile that overriding philosophy with the moves he's actually made? How to reconcile his first draft, where he traded out of the 12th pick and way down into the bottom of the 1st, ignoring legit prospects like Kyle Hamilton and Jordan Davis, to take less-heralded prospects like Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth, with his action in last year's draft where he traded significant draft capital to move up to take a more heralded prospect in Turner?

I just don't get the logic there. Kyle Hamilton was a legit top safety prospect coming out, and a lot of people, myself included, were surprised he made it to the Vikings original pick in the first round. Didn't even have to trade up to get him. KAM traded out of that pick. And then a year later KAM sends a LOT of future draft capital to chase after another legit top DE/OLB pick in Turner.

Doesn't strike me that KAM really has much of a system in place at all, or if he does it isn't one that produces consistent decisions, at least in the 1st round.

I think part of it is that they weren't actually targeting Turner originally. Or at least not realistically. He was in the top 10 in most mock drafts. I think he was a guy they had graded very highly and when he fell to #17 they couldn't help themselves. They traded with Houston about a month before the draft to get back into the 1st round at the 23rd pick. I don't think that was with Turner in mind, they just wanted to move back into the 1st round. Maybe they liked to overall talent in the draft last year and just wanted to have a better position. Maybe they wanted to have extra ammo in case the QBs weren't falling like they hoped.

In other words, when he saw Turner available and within reach he threw his "system" out of the window and went for a player he thought would be a star.

Hopefully by the end of next season he'll look like a genius and the extra 3rd and 4th rounder he gave to get him will look like chump change.

The Turner pick was a surprise only because we solidify that position in FA. But him and the team obviously felt he was the way to go. Posters that saw him live weren't impressed. It's only one year and he was able to play some.