EAGAN, Minn. — The magnitude of the Week 18 regular-season finale between Minnesota (14-2) and Detroit (14-2) expands beyond the NFC North to NFL history.
Since playoff seeding began in 1975, this will be just the third time that two opponents have played in the final game of the regular season with the No. 1 seed in a conference on the line (1979 Dallas defeated Washington; 1993 the New York Giants topped the Cowboys).
This is the NFL's first regular-season game in which both teams have 13-plus wins before kickoff, and there's quite a bit on the line.
The winner will earn a first-round bye to advance to the Divisional Round and have the opportunity to host up to two NFC Playoff games (Divisional Round and NFC Championship Game] in competing for a trip to Super Bowl LIX.
The loser will be the No. 5 seed and have to go on the road in the Wild Card Round, visiting Tampa Bay, Los Angeles or Atlanta, depending on what happens.
History obviously has significantly favored No. 1 seeds over No. 5 seeds, but there's never been a No. 5 seed with 14 wins.
Since 1975, a No. 1 seed has made the Super Bowl 55.1 percent of the time, but a No. 5 seed has only made it 3.3 percent of the time.
Kickoff is 7:20 p.m. (CT), and the game will air nationally on NBC.
4 Storylines
1. Historic matchup
There have been two regular-season matchups in NFL history with 25 combined wins.
The 15-0 Patriots played the 10-5 Giants in Week 17 in 2007, and eventual NFC Champion Seattle (12-2) faced Indianapolis (13-1) in Week 16 in 2005. There have been 10 instances of teams with 24 combined wins meeting in the regular season, including in Week 14 of 1926, according to NFL Research when the 10-2-1 Pottsville Maroons and 14-1-1 Frankfurt Yellow Jackets played to a 0-all tie in the season finale.
Well, buckle up, folks, because this Black and Blue divisional meetup tops every previous game.
Minnesota and Detroit boast 14 wins apiece – that's 28 for the mathematically-challenged out there (there's no shame in that). That haul of wins is so rare it's been witnessed in the playoffs only five times.
Teams with 14-plus wins met in Super Bowls LVII, XXXIII and XIX, as well as the 2004 AFC Championship Game and 1998 NFC Championship Game, the latter of which featured a somber Vikings playoff exit.
The records entering Week 18 make for an astonishing tidbit of history.
Now, Minnesota will try to land on the good side of it.
2. Blake Cashman's impact
He streamlines defensive communication as the "Green Dot" player.
He takes on and defeats run blocks in the box and expertly drops into zone coverages.
He mugs gaps pre-snap or times up cadences and rushes quarterbacks with a unique ferociousness.
Minnesota is 13-0 this season in games with its fearless inside linebacker. The Lions in Week 7 caught Minnesota during the first of three games Blake Cashman missed with a toe injury – but the Minnesota native will be in the lineup on Sunday Night Football.
Blake Cashman Assesses The Defense's Performance Against The Packers, Team's Trust In Sam Darnold
Cashman leads the Vikings defense with 104 tackles and 63 solo. He's fifth on the team with 10 hits on quarterbacks and eight passes defended, and fourth with 4.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss. The 28-year-old is indispensable to Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores' group functioning in top form.
Flores said this week that Cashman's natural leadership has a way of bringing people together.
When Cashman has played, Minnesota has allowed 331.1 yards of offense per game and 83.9 yards on the ground, and the unit's been extremely opportunistic, swiping 2.1 takeaways and notching 3.0 sacks per game.
Without him, the unit permitted 334.7 yards and 106.3 rushing, with 1.3 turnovers forced and 2.3 sacks per contest.
3. Fourth down juggernauts
In 2021, the Next Gen Stats Analytics Team introduced its machine-learning "Decision Guide."
Coaches were crunching numbers and deciding whether they should risk the biscuit and go for it on fourth down long before one of the industry leaders developed a series of tools that breaks down outcomes in real time, but the implementation of it acutely stressed the shift in the football world.
It helped fans understand the potential rewards of keeping the ball in the quarterback's hands and leaving punters and kickers in the warm-up zone. Ironically, the NGS Decision Guide coincided with …
… Dan Campbell being hired by Detroit.
As the leader of the Lions, Campbell has instructed the offense to stay on the field and attempt to convert on fourth down on 147 occasions since 2021. Detroit has succeeded 82 times (55.8%). Both pace the NFL in that time frame.
For comparison's sake, Vikings Head Coach Kevin O'Connell, who was hired in 2022, has gone for it on fourth down 58 times and converted 32 (55.2%). In that span, Campbell's group has tried and thrived on 61 of 106 (57.5%). In 2024, Detroit's 20 conversions on fourth ranks third; Minnesota's six is dead last.
Fortunately, the Vikings have a defense equipped to counteract Campbell's aggressiveness.
Minnesota has succumbed on 11 instances out of 31 dice rolls (35.5%). It's the stiffest fourth-down defense in the league by a fat margin – Baltimore and Detroit are tied for next at 46.2% (both 12 of 26).
4. Justin Jefferson (that's it)
In his career, Randy Moss compiled 747 receiving yards across seven games on the road at Detroit.
Minnesota's current earth-shattering WR, Justin Jefferson, has recorded 730 – in four such games!
Here's how that looks: Jefferson caught nine of 12 targets for 133 yards in Week 17 of the 2020 slate, his introduction to the Motor City. In Week 13 of 2021, he went for 11-182-1 via 14 targets, and in Week 14 one year later, Jefferson set the franchise regular-season, single-game receiving record with 223 yards, nabbing 11 of 15 targets. His encore to that was a spectacular 12-192-1 line by way of 14 passes in Week 18 last season.
The freakish production computes to 182.5 receiving yards per game on the Lions home turf.
That, plus Jefferson's recent string of dominance – he has 457 yards and five touchdowns in his past five games – and Detroit's defense being short-handed because of the injury bug, means history could repeat itself Sunday.
The more you know: Only Moss, fellow Pro Football Hall of Fame split end Raymond Berry (840 yards in 11 games) and three-time Pro Bowl receiver Carroll Dale, who spent the bulk of his 14-year career on the Packers and his final season with the Vikings (1,006 in 14 games), have more receiving yards at Detroit than Jefferson.
The next 25 entries on the list, with yards ranging from Donald Driver (726) to Stefon Diggs (404), including the likes of Adam Thielen, Cris Carter and Jerry Rice, amassed their totals in five or more games.
Oh and in roadies at Ford Field, which opened in 2002, it's basically Jefferson's building as he already has 31 more yards than the No. 2 visiting receiver, Donald Driver, who gathered his tally of 699 from 2002-12.
3 Things 'Bout the Lions
1. Top scoring offense
Ten teams in history have scored more points through 16 games than the 533 posted by the Lions.
Editor's note: The 1998 Vikings are sixth on the all-time list with 556 points scored in their 15-1 season.
Detroit's offense leads the league this year with 33.1 points per game. Buffalo (31.
and Baltimore (30.2) are the only others averaging more than 30. Since Week 14, Detroit's average has spiked to 37.5.It's a historically dominant campaign overall in terms of points combined with taking care of the football.
The Lions are the first team with five games in a season of 40-plus points and zero turnovers; they're undefeated in those circumstances. The only teams with four such games are the 2024 Bills (3-1) and the 2019 Ravens (4-0). Nine teams have done it thrice, dating to the Rock Island Independents in 1920.
Detroit did it most recently in its Monday Night Football win at San Francisco in Week 17.
In that escapade, the Lions scored 18 of 40 points in the third frame and had zero giveaways on 69 plays.
Furthermore, they've produced the second-most total yards in the NFL and committed the fourth-fewest turnovers this year. In Week 11 vs. Jacksonville, they garnered the ninth-most yards in a game (645) and third most in the third millennium; Miami set the record with 726 in 2023, and Houston had 653 in 2012.
2. Ravaged by injuries
The NFL season is a grind of attrition that has no qualms about sneaking up on the scariest teams.
Case in point, Detroit.
The list of Lions currently on Injured Reserve is extensive. It features 18 players total and includes defensive starters Alex Anzalone, Derrick Barnes, Carlton Davis III, Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill and Malcolm Rodriguez, as well as dangerous punt returner Kalif Raymond, who has been designated for return. Stud running back David Montgomery also hasn't played since suffering an MCL sprain in Detroit's Week 15 loss against Buffalo.
Detroit did regain two key players on MNF in starting left guard Graham Glasgow and core special teams player and linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin. Montgomery is projected to make a return in the playoffs.
Also, Hutchinson, who had 7.5 sacks in five games this year and was hurt right before the Week 7 matchup, is reportedly working to rejoin the lineup if the Lions manage to make a deep postseason run.
3. Fantastic foursome
There were four instances in the past 30-plus seasons entering 2024 of four players on a team each surpassing 1,000 scrimmage yards. (No siree, there's never been a team with five such individuals.)
Detroit is the fifth – but the first with a tandem of running backs and wide receivers.
Jahmyr Gibbs leads the way on the Lions spread-the-wealth attack, with 1,273 rushing yards and 486 receiving for a whopping total of 1,759, which is third in the NFL. Amon-Ra St. Brown is second with 1,192 scrimmage yards while Montgomery is third (1,116) and Jameson Williams fourth (1,028).
The four other teams with 1,000-yard quartets in that span are San Francisco in 2023 (Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel), Carolina in 2020 (Robbie Chosen, Mike Davis, DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel), Indianapolis in 2004 (Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, Brandon Stokley and Reggie Wayne) and Atlanta in 1995 (Bert Emanuel, Craig Heyward, Terance Mathis and Eric Metcalf).
Detroit's foursome is particularly unique in that each player really is so different.
Gibbs has a speedy yet slashing running style, plays with a forward lean and can run post routes out of the backfield. He's about as hard to defend as anyone. St. Brown is a possession phenom, with 109 receptions and only a single drop according to Pro Football Focus – and strong. Montgomery is a bruising runner that has more wiggle than any player who is almost 230 pounds should. And Williams is a smell-ya-later speed threat.
Add to all that a tough-to-defend tight end in Sam LaPorta, who has 663 yards on 53 catches and seven touchdowns in Year 2, and a deep room of veteran wideouts – Tim Patrick, Raymond and Allen Robinson.
Of course, the guy distributing to the players above is amidst a special year, too.
Jared Goff ranks second among NFL passers in yards, third in completion percent and fourth in TDs. He's tracking to become the third QB all-time to conduct the No. 1 scoring offense on multiple teams (also with the Rams in 2017; 29.9 points per game), joining Pro Football Hall of Fame QBs Peyton Manning and Y.A. Tittle.
2 Vikings to Track
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson needs 21 yards for the third 1,500-yard season of his career and become the sixth player all-time with three such seasons. Jerry Rice, who played 20 seasons has the all-time record of four 1,500-yard seasons. Reminder that Jefferson is in just his fifth campaign. He also needs seven receptions to pass Steve Jordan (498) for fourth in Vikings history and eight to reach the 500-catch mark.
Sam Darnold: With one more touchdown pass, Darnold solely will rank second all-time in one season by a Vikings QB and only trail 39 by Daunte Culpepper in 2004. If he posts a passer rating of 100 or higher, he will tie the NFL record of 14 such games in a season, which was set by Aaron Rodgers in 2020. If he throws more than one touchdown, it will be his 13th game of 2024 with two-plus scoring passes and break a team record set by Kirk Cousins in 2020 and matched in 2021.
1 Key Matchup
Cashman and Co. vs. Gibbs
Gibbs has three games this season with 100-plus rushing and 40-plus receiving yards.
He reached that many in Weeks 16-17 – and in Week 7 at U.S. Bank Stadium.
It's impossible to overstate, this week specifically, how important it is for Cashman and Minnesota's entire defense to set edges, play with great technique and patience, and collectively swarm to Gibbs in space – because he shifts gear and thus game momentum as briskly as any NFL player in recent memory.
In Week 7, the second-year running back out of Alabama rushed 15 times for 116 yards, with touchdown runs of 45 and 8. He coupled his 7.7-yard average on the ground with four receptions for 44 and a long catch of 18.
To gauge the seriousness of Gibbs' skills, here's a couple of stats from analytics site Pro Football Focus:
Gibbs has 23 "breakaway" rushes that have gained 15-plus yards. That's No. 2 to MVP option Saquon Barkley (25), which is mind-boggling considering Gibbs has 118 fewer rush attempts.
Similarly, Gibbs has 37 "explosive" runs of 10-plus yards, which is third behind the Eagles star (46) and Baltimore' workhorse Derrick Henry (41), who has carried 78 times more than Gibbs.
And one more from NGS:
Gibbs is the inaugural player in the Next Gen Stats Era, dating to 2018, to average 2.5 yards per carry before contact and5 yards after contact in the same season (minimum 200 attempts).
