Sam

[Cliff]

Re: Paying Sam.

You only don't pay him if you think this year is a fluke. Otherwise are we saying the plan is to always have a QB on a cheap contract or a rookie? Let's say we do go to JJ. He puts up similar numbers to Darnold and its time to give him a "real" contract, should they cut him at that point? Is he more special because the Vikings actually drafted him? Or because he'd be 24 or 25 instead of 27?

Every single team considered a Super bowl contender, other than the Vikings, is paying their QB 45+ million per year. If you can pay less, great, but obviously it's not imperative.

[makila]

You only don't pay him if you think this year is a fluke.

I agree 10000% on this point. If they think he's the guy, then they need to pay him.

Otherwise are we saying the plan is to always have a QB on a cheap contract or a rookie? Let's say we do go to JJ. He puts up similar numbers to Darnold and its time to give him a "real" contract, should they cut him at that point? Is he more special because the Vikings actually drafted him? Or because he'd be 24 or 25 instead of 27?

This is the thought process I keep going through in my head recently. What realistically is the short term goal the FO has now? Its changed, has to have. Even the most optimistic people weren't expecting this. The real impact it could have, is if the FO thinks a championship windows has opened now. Based on their free agent contracts, and moves made last off-season (ie who they let move on and who they resigned), I think before the season started that window was still 1-2 seasons away. As the cap space opens up, and JJM has 1-2 seasons under his belt. Obviously this is/was dependent on JJM hitting.

We have to wait until the season plays out imho (I know some are clamoring to offer Darnold a contract now). If we make a deep playoff run, then the window is probably here sooner than we thought, and it's time to go all in. If we do the opposite, I don't think they should steer drastically from their roadmap.

Obviously we won't have a QB on a rookie contract forever, and the salary cap goes up. So a contract signed for, say, 2027 won't be the same cap % as it is today.

Every single team considered a Super bowl contender, other than the Vikings, is paying their QB 45+ million per year. If you can pay less, great, but obviously it's not imperative.

Some of those teams shifted their model during the QBs tenure too. Clearly both can work in today's nfl. And almost everyone of those QBs "proved" it while still on a rookie contract (ie a meaningful playoff run) before they cashed in. Our situation is a bit different. QBs coming to the end of a rookie contract allows some planning to happen. With Darnold they have a 1 year runway to handle the end of the contract. Resigning a rookie (such as JJM as you mentioned) can afford longer planning.

They planned on having a lot of FA cap space this off season for a reason. And that plan means there are a lot of players who don't have contracts after this season. Just need to be smart on how resources are utilized.

If they think the window is now, and he's the guy, they have to sign him.

[CharVike]

Re: Paying Sam.

You only don't pay him if you think this year is a fluke. Otherwise are we saying the plan is to always have a QB on a cheap contract or a rookie? Let's say we do go to JJ. He puts up similar numbers to Darnold and its time to give him a "real" contract, should they cut him at that point? Is he more special because the Vikings actually drafted him? Or because he'd be 24 or 25 instead of 27?

Every single team considered a Super bowl contender, other than the Vikings, is paying their QB 45+ million per year. If you can pay less, great, but obviously it's not imperative.

That's what most don't see. Plus it helps if you can draft well.

[J. Kapp 11]

Everybody’s worried about a potential Darnold salary-cap hit in a Super Bowl window. It’s yet another reason people want to get rid of him (or simply an excuse because they think he’s bound to start playing like the Jets version of Darnold).

It’s nonsense.

Most are calling for a slightly elevated version of the 3-year, $100 million contract Baker Mayfield signed with Tampa Bay. So let’s go with that. Let’s say 3 years, $111 million, or an average annual value of $37 million a year.

Make $25 million of that a signing bonus and add two void years.

Salaries over the 3 years
2025 $15 million
2026 $30 million
2027 $41 million

That makes the cap hits as follows
2025 $20 million
2026 $35 million
2027 $46 million

The Vikings have $78 million in projected cap space in 2025. A Darnold hit of $20 million would still leave them $58 million to re-sign their own pending free agents they want to keep, plus a few impact players. Cap space of $58 million would still put them in the top 12 of the NFL, and that’s AFTER extending Darnold.

If you decide to trade McCarthy, you only do it for a first-round pick. If you keep him, then it turns into an Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes situation, where McCarthy learns, and you can still trade one of them down the road.

I firmly believe the Vikings will make a good-faith effort to keep Darnold. And I believe Darnold would be motivated to stay. It’s the best situation he could possibly be in.

I completely agree with this. I think Darnold has had his fill of dumpster fire organizations.

The only thing that will separate Darnold from the Vikings at this point is if someone "makes him an offer he can't refuse". Dak Prescott type money. The Vikings won't offer that, I don't think, and he would be a fool to not take it.

I don't think there's any chance the team puts a tag on him to keep him here for less than another team offers. I think the team wants to be seen as "player friendly" and using the tag like that is looked down upon by players.

Totally agree. As much as I like Darnold, especially paired with KOC, signing him to a Dak-level contract would be wrong. Not only that, I think it would be contrary to the entire vision Kwesi and KOC have for this organization.

[J. Kapp 11]

Current Vikings' starters who are free agents next year:
Sam Darnold
Harrison Smith
Byron Murphy
Aaron Jones
Stephon Gilmore
Shaq Griffin
Cam Bynum
Dalton Risner
Ryan Wright (who cares)
Jonathon Bullard

Others with a major role on the team:
Jihad Ward
Pat Jones II
Cam Akers
Jerry Tillery

That is almost their entire secondary, most of their IDL and all of their viable RBs. The Vikings do have 73.5 million in cap once Smith's void years are accelerated, but if they sign Darnold that drops to around 40 depending on how they structure his deal. If they tag him it drops to 32 million.

This isn't just interesting from the perspective of who can the Vikings bring back next year, assuming they won a Superbowl this year, but is also interesting from the perspective of how sustainable that success might be over the duration of a longer-term extension for a QB like Darnold. In other words, was this year's Vikings team built with the longer term in mind, or was it built to be a stepping stone on the path to the team KOC and KAM want to build in the future?

Given all those names hitting free agency, especially on the defensive side of the football, along with the fact that Darnold was pretty much signed for the vet minimum at QB on a one year deal, I'd say it's far more likely to be the latter than the former view of what each want the team to ultimately be.

And that makes me wonder if the Vikings do end up winning something substantial this year, it still might be better to try to maximize the fruits of that success over the longer term and recognize that success likely isn't sustainable even if every player on that list was re-signed for a longer term deal.

Harrison Smith, for example, probably won't be back regardless. Ditto for Gilmore and Griffin. Aaron Jones isn't on that list, but how much can he have left in the tank? Dalton Risner is in the same general boat.

I totally understand the desire to bring Sam Darnold back on a longer-term deal, especially if this year's team does something special in the playoffs, but the more I look at the team as it stands right now, the less convinced I am that would be the best move for the longer term. Darnold is a little different in that there is precedent for a younger QB to sit and develop behind an established starter, and McCarthy is young and has that time, so giving Darnold a two year deal or a three year deal with a voidable final year while allowing McCarthy to develop without a ton of pressure makes sense even if the Vikings don't win the Superbowl this year, but I still think KAM and KOC have to keep their eyes on the longer term prize which is the dominant, year-over-year team I think they are building towards over the next 2 or so years. And I think that if they're going to get that team on the field, it's going to be ultimately be helmed by a guy like McCarthy.

Plus, I don't see even a QB needy team giving up a top 10 draft pick for McCarthy. McCarthy has done almost nothing to this point and spent most of his rookie year recovering from a non-contact knee injury. He was a prospect who I suspect many felt was over-drafted even if that wasn't his fault. If a team were willing to give up a top 10 pick for him, KAM would have to seriously consider taking that offer, but I personally don't see that happening.

Even though I’m the one advocating for the Vikings to try and find a trade partner for McCarthy, I do agree with you to an extent. He’s totally unproven, and in most years, trading him wouldn’t be a viable option.

I do see this year as unique, however. I believe there are two types of team that might do it, stemming primarily from the fact that the 2025 quarterback class is as bad as the 2024 class was good.

— A team in desperate need of a young quarterback but doesn’t draft high enough to get the only two QBs worth drafting might consider trading their first for McCarthy the same as drafting him with that pick. Examples: Tennessee, Las Vegas, Cleveland, New Orleans, the Jets (if Rodgers retires) or even Seattle (Geno will be 35).

— A team in a bad cap situation that needs a quarterback. Examples: New Orleans, Cleveland, Seattle.

Again, as I’ve stated before, the Cleveland Browns are in a situation that we may never see again. They’re already projected to be $19 million over the cap, and that’s if they DON’T release Deshaun Watson. If I’m Kwesi and I want to move McCarthy, I use my contacts with the Browns, where I once worked in the front office, and I offer them a way to move on from the dead weight that is Watson … just send us your No. 5 pick, and you get a quarterback who’s better than anybody you could draft this year.

Is it likely? Probably not. But I challenge anyone to prove to me the Vikings would be better off with McCarthy as the unquestioned starter, or that my idea would be worse for the Vikings than keeping both.

[VikingLord]

Is it likely? Probably not. But I challenge anyone to prove to me the Vikings would be better off with McCarthy as the unquestioned starter, or that my idea would be worse for the Vikings than keeping both.

My preference as it stands would be to keep both (and heck, keep Jones if possible as well). Pay Darnold what he deserves and make the deal as cap-friendly and future-proof as possible while allowing McCarthy to develop as much as possible.

IF someone were to offer a top 10 pick for McCarthy KAM should probably make that trade, both because he'd be be getting out more draft capital than he originally put in and because the Vikings don't have much in the way of picks in the upcoming draft. A high 1st round pick would be very valuable for the Vikings this year.

But I just don't see that happening, and I'm fine with it because I liked what I saw out of McCarthy and the story of Darnold's 2024 campaign hasn't been completed yet. There is still a chance my opinion on the wisdom of re-signing him could change. He's had a great year so far, but the body of his work as a pro to this point is still there and can't be discounted quite yet. Stump also raised some concerns that I agree with, so I want to see how it all plays out before I'd be fully on board with any longer-term moves.

[CharVike]

This isn't just interesting from the perspective of who can the Vikings bring back next year, assuming they won a Superbowl this year, but is also interesting from the perspective of how sustainable that success might be over the duration of a longer-term extension for a QB like Darnold. In other words, was this year's Vikings team built with the longer term in mind, or was it built to be a stepping stone on the path to the team KOC and KAM want to build in the future?

Given all those names hitting free agency, especially on the defensive side of the football, along with the fact that Darnold was pretty much signed for the vet minimum at QB on a one year deal, I'd say it's far more likely to be the latter than the former view of what each want the team to ultimately be.

And that makes me wonder if the Vikings do end up winning something substantial this year, it still might be better to try to maximize the fruits of that success over the longer term and recognize that success likely isn't sustainable even if every player on that list was re-signed for a longer term deal.

Harrison Smith, for example, probably won't be back regardless. Ditto for Gilmore and Griffin. Aaron Jones isn't on that list, but how much can he have left in the tank? Dalton Risner is in the same general boat.

I totally understand the desire to bring Sam Darnold back on a longer-term deal, especially if this year's team does something special in the playoffs, but the more I look at the team as it stands right now, the less convinced I am that would be the best move for the longer term. Darnold is a little different in that there is precedent for a younger QB to sit and develop behind an established starter, and McCarthy is young and has that time, so giving Darnold a two year deal or a three year deal with a voidable final year while allowing McCarthy to develop without a ton of pressure makes sense even if the Vikings don't win the Superbowl this year, but I still think KAM and KOC have to keep their eyes on the longer term prize which is the dominant, year-over-year team I think they are building towards over the next 2 or so years. And I think that if they're going to get that team on the field, it's going to be ultimately be helmed by a guy like McCarthy.

Plus, I don't see even a QB needy team giving up a top 10 draft pick for McCarthy. McCarthy has done almost nothing to this point and spent most of his rookie year recovering from a non-contact knee injury. He was a prospect who I suspect many felt was over-drafted even if that wasn't his fault. If a team were willing to give up a top 10 pick for him, KAM would have to seriously consider taking that offer, but I personally don't see that happening.

Even though I’m the one advocating for the Vikings to try and find a trade partner for McCarthy, I do agree with you to an extent. He’s totally unproven, and in most years, trading him wouldn’t be a viable option.

I do see this year as unique, however. I believe there are two types of team that might do it, stemming primarily from the fact that the 2025 quarterback class is as bad as the 2024 class was good.

— A team in desperate need of a young quarterback but doesn’t draft high enough to get the only two QBs worth drafting might consider trading their first for McCarthy the same as drafting him with that pick. Examples: Tennessee, Las Vegas, Cleveland, New Orleans, the Jets (if Rodgers retires) or even Seattle (Geno will be 35).

— A team in a bad cap situation that needs a quarterback. Examples: New Orleans, Cleveland, Seattle.

Again, as I’ve stated before, the Cleveland Browns are in a situation that we may never see again. They’re already projected to be $19 million over the cap, and that’s if they DON’T release Deshaun Watson. If I’m Kwesi and I want to move McCarthy, I use my contacts with the Browns, where I once worked in the front office, and I offer them a way to move on from the dead weight that is Watson … just send us your No. 5 pick, and you get a quarterback who’s better than anybody you could draft this year.

Is it likely? Probably not. But I challenge anyone to prove to me the Vikings would be better off with McCarthy as the unquestioned starter, or that my idea would be worse for the Vikings than keeping both.

I like the idea of keeping both of them. Darnold is getting the crap beat out of him. Based on my eyes he's not running as fast as when the season started. Teams keep rolling up on his legs and knocking him down as he throws. That takes a toll on a player. I just hope he can make it through the entire season and post season. I've seen Nick play and some are impressed but I don't see why. He can't put anything on the ball if he's off balance. Once he threw that duck down the middle of the field last year against the Loins I thought he's a joke. He was on balance also. He was playing hero ball with no arm. I see JJM as a better backup and possible future starter in 3+ years than what we have on the roster. If he's not then KAM swung and missed again. The play Darnold made against the Hawks for the winning TD to Jetts was all him. The pocket was a total disaster with every wall breaking down and he got out of that mess and threw a strike to the sideline that Jetts adjusted to and took it in. Not many QBs can make that play. That took an incredible amount of talent that few have. He did take a shot after because our OL sucks. That concerns me the most.

[J. Kapp 11]

Is it likely? Probably not. But I challenge anyone to prove to me the Vikings would be better off with McCarthy as the unquestioned starter, or that my idea would be worse for the Vikings than keeping both.

My preference as it stands would be to keep both (and heck, keep Jones if possible as well). Pay Darnold what he deserves and make the deal as cap-friendly and future-proof as possible while allowing McCarthy to develop as much as possible.

IF someone were to offer a top 10 pick for McCarthy KAM should probably make that trade, both because he'd be be getting out more draft capital than he originally put in and because the Vikings don't have much in the way of picks in the upcoming draft. A high 1st round pick would be very valuable for the Vikings this year.

But I just don't see that happening, and I'm fine with it because I liked what I saw out of McCarthy and the story of Darnold's 2024 campaign hasn't been completed yet. There is still a chance my opinion on the wisdom of re-signing him could change. He's had a great year so far, but the body of his work as a pro to this point is still there and can't be discounted quite yet. Stump also raised some concerns that I agree with, so I want to see how it all plays out before I'd be fully on board with any longer-term moves.

Well, never mind my trade to Cleveland idea. The Browns just reworked Watson’s contract, adding two void years to spread out the cap hit.

As for Darnold, we’ll just mildly agree to disagree.

Let me add this. Kirk Cousins did well in KOC’s offense in 2022. But in 2023, their second year together, Kirk was shining. Almost 300 yards per game, 18 TDs in 8 games, low INT rate, best passer rating and total QBR of Kirk’s career. Cousins was fully grasping every nuance of the offense. He had firm control and was playing at a level people didn’t think was possible.

For my money, Darnold has been even better than the 2022 version of Cousins. KOC’s track record says Sam will take a step forward in year 2. A step forward from this year would result in a season that ranks among the best in Vikings history.

You and others say you’re not yet convinced about Sam. That’s fine, but then how can you be convinced about McCarthy? I personally have serious doubts that a rookie can play anywhere near what Sam has done this year. How many rookies have? If he doesn’t, then the Vikings will struggle to compete with the likes of Detroit and Green Bay, whose quarterbacks ARE established. And if he struggles? Stand by for the fury of angry Vikings fans who will rightly say, “You had THE GUY in your building.”

Every team longs for a quarterback who plays at a level that gives them confidence they’ll be able to compete in every game. A franchise guy. Other than a two-game stretch, Sam Darnold has provided exactly that. Yet we don’t want him? I’m not sure what more the guy has to do.

[psjordan]

Well I'm convinced Darnold is worth keeping for sure - not at any price, but just above reasonable would work for me. But then what's the best scenario? That we have a young QB on the roster, not making a ton, to sit and learn. I don't see any reason (besides length of Darnold contract) that McCarthy can't be that guy. I am nonplussed by any 2025 draftable QB's, so at a min we'd have to have our eye on someone in the 2026 draft. And a LOT can change with college players over two years.

So my end position is sign Darnold for whatever seems "reasonably crazy", but have the contract wind down right around when we'd have to jump on McCarthy's option year. But keep McCarthy no matter what, I would NOT trade him.

I see Jones as a simple insurance policy for the re-signing of Darnold potentially falling apart. If we sign Darnold, Jones is gone for sure.

[J. Kapp 11]

Well I'm convinced Darnold is worth keeping for sure - not at any price, but just above reasonable would work for me. But then what's the best scenario? That we have a young QB on the roster, not making a ton, to sit and learn. I don't see any reason (besides length of Darnold contract) that McCarthy can't be that guy. I am nonplussed by any 2025 draftable QB's, so at a min we'd have to have our eye on someone in the 2026 draft. And a LOT can change with college players over two years.

So my end position is sign Darnold for whatever seems "reasonably crazy", but have the contract wind down right around when we'd have to jump on McCarthy's option year. But keep McCarthy no matter what, I would NOT trade him.

I see Jones as a simple insurance policy for the re-signing of Darnold potentially falling apart. If we sign Darnold, Jones is gone for sure.

Yours is a reasonable take, for sure.

I just like having a quarterback who’s been through the wars and proven himself. The talent is there for Sam, and his motivation is off the charts. Is 11 picks more than I’d like? Actually no, it’s not, for two reasons. First, a downfield offense like ours is inherently more risky. Second, quarterbacks with few picks, like Caleb Williams and like Cousins was, often tend to be risk averse. They shy away from taking shots at 50-50 balls, which is not what you want when you’ve got receivers like JJ on the team.

I don’t have a problem with McCarthy. I do feel Darnold is better, but that doesn’t mean McCarthy can’t grow into a fine player. I just caution Vikings fans …. if Sam leaves, be prepared for the team to take a step backwards. Yes, we’ll have more cap space, but JJMC will be a rookie quarterback. There will be growing pains. But hey, if they can somehow use that cap space to bring in a good interior O-lineman or two, maybe that would mitigate some of the rookie mistakes.

[IIsweet]

Remember when Philadelphia had Sam Bradford and a young up and comer in Carson Wentz...
We traded a 1st Rd pick and a conditional 4th for Bradford when our QB, Teddy Bridgewater, was injured and we panicked.
We can afford Darnold. Sign him. My concern is the numerous DB we have to replace and resign.
We also have Darrisaw coming back, so I move Cam to RG. Brandel is fine. Bradbury is awful still.
So we have to be smart with FA $ and actually land some quality players in the draft.

Signing Darnold keeps the Offense strong.
Need Kwesi to nail the draft

[VikingLord]

You and others say you’re not yet convinced about Sam. That’s fine, but then how can you be convinced about McCarthy? I personally have serious doubts that a rookie can play anywhere near what Sam has done this year. How many rookies have? If he doesn’t, then the Vikings will struggle to compete with the likes of Detroit and Green Bay, whose quarterbacks ARE established. And if he struggles? Stand by for the fury of angry Vikings fans who will rightly say, “You had THE GUY in your building.”

I'm not convinced about McCarthy yet. He needs to play more before I am, but I did like what I saw from him in his very limited snaps prior to getting hurt.

Every team longs for a quarterback who plays at a level that gives them confidence they’ll be able to compete in every game. A franchise guy. Other than a two-game stretch, Sam Darnold has provided exactly that. Yet we don’t want him? I’m not sure what more the guy has to do.

I don't think I ever said I don't want him. I'm just not completely sold on him yet, but a big part of that probably has nothing to do with him and everything to do with how jaded I've become watching this team over the years. I've watched so many Vikings teams and QBs fall flat at the most critical moments that I think I'm probably transferring a lot of that trauma to Darnold by association. He's been a warrior all year and consistently stepped up and made the plays when the team needed him the most, and if he keeps doing that this team is going to not only go to the Superbowl, but they're going to win it.

The question is, will he do that? For that matter, will the team do it? I've just been let down so many times by past Vikings teams as I know we all have. But that isn't Sam Darnold's fault, and unlike the past QBs of almost all of those teams, I don't think anyone is going to be fully sold on him (other than maybe KOC, Sam Darnold himself, and you ) until we all see him standing in New Orleans holding the Lombardi.

[makila]

Remember when Philadelphia had Sam Bradford and a young up and comer in Carson Wentz...
We traded a 1st Rd pick and a conditional 4th for Bradford when our QB, Teddy Bridgewater, was injured and we panicked.
We can afford Darnold. Sign him. My concern is the numerous DB we have to replace and resign.
We also have Darrisaw coming back, so I move Cam to RG. Brandel is fine. Bradbury is awful still.
So we have to be smart with FA $ and actually land some quality players in the draft.

Signing Darnold keeps the Offense strong.
Need Kwesi to nail the draft

Robinson isn't an interior lineman. He needs to stay on the outside. He's also a free agent fwiw.

[VikingLord]

Remember when Philadelphia had Sam Bradford and a young up and comer in Carson Wentz...
We traded a 1st Rd pick and a conditional 4th for Bradford when our QB, Teddy Bridgewater, was injured and we panicked.
We can afford Darnold. Sign him. My concern is the numerous DB we have to replace and resign.
We also have Darrisaw coming back, so I move Cam to RG. Brandel is fine. Bradbury is awful still.
So we have to be smart with FA $ and actually land some quality players in the draft.

Signing Darnold keeps the Offense strong.
Need Kwesi to nail the draft

Robinson isn't an interior lineman. He needs to stay on the outside. He's also a free agent fwiw.

Regardless of what Robinson is or where he can play, as you note he's going to be a free agent after this season, as will a lot of the guys who have been big contributors to this unlikely run.

I do wonder if this is a team that the Vikings can, or even should try to, keep together after this season regardless of how it turns out. It's a great story and I think a lot of the guys on the team would probably take less to come back and play another year or couple of years in Minnesota, but some of these guys simply aren't coming back (Smith and Gilmore come to mind, but there are probably others). Especially if this team wins the Superbowl.

I think KAM and KOC caught lightning in a bottle with this group. As long as it lasts we should all enjoy the ride and I personally am doing exactly that, but I have a feeling we'll be watching a much different team next year regardless of what happens in this one.

[IIsweet]

So, not to be a Mr Minus.... But, this year we were playing a 3rd place schedule. Next year we are getting a much more difficult schedule.
I do believe though, that this team is playing great football right now. A deep playoff run should surprise no one.
I also expect veterans to take a long hard look at signing here for league minimums and lower contracts as they finish out their careers. I think that the environment and chance at a SB becomes more important to older players than the salary.
To be elite, KAM has to do a better job at drafting.
I think he needs to evaluate his scouting department and their hits and misses.

So, sign Sam. Remember also that this is the first time he has ever had success and played at a high level. He is still discovering his abilities.
On a side note.... How pathetic is Carolina? In 2022, they had Sam Darnold AND Baker Mayfield and struggled mightily !!!