The Brewing QB1 Controversy

[VikingLord]

We may as well start talking about it even though there is a lot of season left, but provided Sam Darnold continues to perform at a high level, the Vikings are going to have a really interesting decision to make this coming offseason, or possibly even before.

Sam Darnold was signed to a one-year deal, and not a massive deal at that. It was also clear in the last draft that the Vikings wanted to draft a young QB who they could develop into a franchise starter along the lines of teams like the Ravens and Chiefs, putting them into a strong and repeatable competitive position for years to come. Thus, they invested a high pick in JJ McCarthy, and a lot of people, myself included, thought McCarthy might even see the field later this year because I don't think anybody, myself included, expected Darnold to perform as well as he has.

For perspective, Darnold's stats (and relative rankings for those categories) through the 1st four weeks are:

Completion % - 68.9 (10th)
Total yards - 932 (7th)
Yards per attempt - 8.8 (2nd)
TDs - 11 (1st)
INTs - 3 (middle of the pack with many others with more)
Sacks - 10 (worst in the NFL has been sacked 19 times by comparison)
QBR - 73.6 (3rd)
Overall Rating - 118.9 (1st)

I mean, wow. For a "bridge" signing, those are some pretty compelling numbers.

If Darnold maintains this pace, and with the weapons he has around him and considering the overall quality of the defenses he has faced thus far, what in the world should/will the Vikings do as this season wears on?

Barring something unexpected like a serious injury, let's say Darnold does keep this up and the team continues to win. Let's go further and say they finish no worse than the 2017 Vikings did behind Case Keenum. The Vikings faced the same sort of questions and decision after that season ended within a breath (a long, deep breath...) of the Superbowl, only in that situation there was no highly-drafted young QB prospect waiting in the wings.

The braintrust in that situation decided Keenum's improbable run was not repeatable and allowed him to leave in FA, choosing instead to spend big on an established, if somewhat middling, vet FA QB they thought could become their franchise starter. While the merits of that move can be questioned because of who that vet FA QB was, it's the reasoning behind the move that is intriguing and that I think will likewise apply to the Vikings later in this season.

Sam Darnold's career to this point is well-established. He was drafted 3rd overall the year he came out by a bad team, got thrown into the mix immediately because it was a bad team, struggled as most rookies do in such situations, and then has bounced around, both as a starter and a backup. Even the Vikings inked him to a short-term deal after Cousins decided to leave, so it wasn't like they clearly believed in him or had a plan to finally develop him. In many ways, he's similar to Case Keenum in 2017, and the success he's having, while notable, could in those same ways be similar to the success Keenum enjoyed in that single year of his pro career as well.

This is made more complex by the fact that the Vikings did clearly want McCarthy, and further by the fact that prior to his unfortunate knee injury McCarthy was coming along nicely in terms of his development. One does wonder if the level of overall offensive talent the 2024 Vikings possess could make a lot of QBs look good.

So maybe this is too early to start talking about this, but it sure does look like the 2024 Vikings might be headed towards a very interesting offseason at the QB position. If Darnold keeps this up he will be able to command top dollar in FA unless the Vikings find a way to extend him, but if they extend him under those circumstances I think there would be an expectation that he's QB1 next year regardless of McCarthy's health. The Vikings should be able to afford that given McCarthy is on a rookie deal, but they'd also be shipping the notion that McCarthy is going to see the field in the near term. There is precedent around the league for situations like that where a team has an established vet starter and allows the young guy in waiting to sit for a season or three.

Anyway, curious what others think, and this will be a thread I'll revisit as the season wears on.

[Cliff]

It is an interesting discussion.

If Darnold keeps these numbers up and makes it to the NFCC or Super Bowl there's no way you let him walk. I think it's a mistake to take a gamble on an unknown in JJ when you've got a young QB already performing at a high level.

You mentioned Case but I think that's such a different situation. For starters, I think switching out Keenum for Cousins was a huge mistake in the first place. Zimmer didn't want it and to this day says he wanted to stay with Case. The 2017 Vikings were a defensive team first and signing Cousins basically dismantled the defense over the next 2-3 years and got Rick and Zimmer fired. It's impossible to know if that year for Keenum would have been his only "good" season. Sometimes a player is in the perfect position on a given team and that was Case and the Vikings in that window. Spielman went rouge on getting Cousins and Zimmer was proven right.

Then there's raw potential. Case was an undrafted player. Good enough to climb his way onto NFL rosters, but not with the potential that Darnold has. Plus Darnold is only 27. It's not like he's an old man. If we knew for sure that the 21 year old JJ would play just as well as Darnold, it's a no brainer, but we won't get to see that because he got immediately injured, which is also a strike against JJ.

If Darnold keeps this pace up and the Vikings make it to the NFCC or beyond, I think you sign Darnold to a 4 year contract. I'd say extend him for two or something like that but there's no way he'd take less than 4 years with plenty of guarantees given what his free agent market will look like. Then you let JJ sit another year at least and then trade whichever one you think has the least upside.

[cmoss84]

If Sam plays like this the entire year, someone else will pay him. Maybe a Baker Mayfield-type contract. Vikings wouldn't have money to do so.

[VikingLord]

If Sam plays like this the entire year, someone else will pay him. Maybe a Baker Mayfield-type contract. Vikings wouldn't have money to do so.

I bet he'd be willing to sign a deal that would enable him to stay in Minny in that case. Not sure how they'd structure it but the way I look at it (and I bet Darnold would, too) is that Darnold bounced around to this point because he had the talent but wasn't in the right situation to maximize that talent. If he performs well this year, it's in large part because he's finally found the right situation. What price would he put on that? Sure, he could go somewhere else for a max deal and yeah, there would probably be teams out there willing to give him that, but would he be likely to thrive in those situations under the inevitable pressure he'd experience?

I'd say the odds would be better than 50-50 Darnold will be willing to take a cap-friendly deal to stay a Viking.

The question is, would the Vikings want to do that?

[psjordan]

I bet he'd be willing to sign a deal that would enable him to stay in Minny in that case. Not sure how they'd structure it but the way I look at it (and I bet Darnold would, too) is that Darnold bounced around to this point because he had the talent but wasn't in the right situation to maximize that talent.

I look at it from the perspective of the "signing team" - the combination of Darnold/KOC/Vikings is what produced good results. Would another team actually feel they can replicate that, when Darnold's prior three teams couldn't? To be fair, not much of a chance for him in SF but they let him go nonetheless.

If he performs well this year, it's in large part because he's finally found the right situation. What price would he put on that? Sure, he could go somewhere else for a max deal and yeah, there would probably be teams out there willing to give him that

Maybe, but I just don't see another team completely ignoring the combination in MIN and thinking Darnold is now special goods no matter where he goes.

I'd say the odds would be better than 50-50 Darnold will be willing to take a cap-friendly deal to stay a Viking.

Oh I'd say the odds are 80/20 FOR that scenario.

The question is, would the Vikings want to do that?

Oh I'd say absolutely. I know it's a different world now, but AA-ron sat for four years in GB. I think as long as JJ is cheap, we'd do what we could to keep them both.

[CharVike]

With a sample of only 4 games it's tough to project anything. I hope Sammy continues to play well. He hasn't been beat and should throw almost 50 TD passes. So if we march to a SB victory then they will need to resign him and let JJM be the backup until a team offers us the farm for him or keep him as a backup for 4 years. Something tells me it won't work that way. We almost gave away a 28-0 game. That's a huge lead to surrender. Hate to say it but my head said watch them recover this onside kick and beat us. IMO the best case would be a playoff victory and then we find a team that will trade the farm for him after a tag. We could certainly use the picks. Or if the staff feels he's the long term answer trade JJM. It looks like this draft is weak at QB. Looks like the Panthers will be looking again. Sammy don't fit there of course but JJM will. Many other teams will be looking also.

[StanM]

Phil on Purple Daily has been saying since before the season that all Sam has to do is “drive the car” aka game manage our offense for a year. He has not only proved that he can keep a seat in the car warm for JJ but is well on his way to reviving his career and getting a big payday.

I think that KOC is going to change the head coach philosophy of the NFL. KOC has been successful at getting maximum productivity at the position. Another area he excels in is taking a bunch of transitory free agents and uniting them in record time. I think that is a leadership skill that is often overlooked.

[StpViking]

I agree with Cliff, if he continues this pace. 4 years. McCarthy doesn't have Darnold's arm. Arm strength is fun for fans like me to watch. Most importantly, Darnold is proving on the field, so far JJ McCarthy is proving it on paper.

Sam Darnold you just keep Ummming your thing.

[cmoss84]

I agree with Cliff, if he continues this pace. 4 years. McCarthy doesn't have Darnold's arm. Arm strength is fun for fans like me to watch. Most importantly, Darnold is proving on the field, so far JJ McCarthy is proving it on paper.

Sam Darnold you just keep Ummming your thing.

I understand being optimistic from all of you. Sam is playing great and continuity for the next 3-4 years would be nice. But where is the money going to come from to pay him? Let's say he gets 3/100. We are able to afford a good team with all around depth because we are paying our QBs $15m.

[VikingLord]

I understand being optimistic from all of you. Sam is playing great and continuity for the next 3-4 years would be nice. But where is the money going to come from to pay him? Let's say he gets 3/100. We are able to afford a good team with all around depth because we are paying our QBs $15m.

McCarthy is on a rookie deal and Darnold is getting $10 million for one year, so if that were to bump up to a market-rate deal I don't think that is a team-killer from a cap perspective. Based on info at this site: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/minnesota-vikings, I think they'd have room to retain Darnold's services if he really wanted to stay. I think he'd probably insist, though, on some job security at that point, which pretty much means McCarthy sits for most, if not all, of his rookie deal.

[makila]

Lots of Ifs. As VL prefaced, really early for this discussion that isn't loaded with Ifs.

I think the question that will drive the decision alot is, what was their cap forecast for the next two years? I suspect they've made signings based on the idea of a rookie qb contract and another vet (cheap) next year. Obviously this can all be reworked. Just don't want to see them restrict their ability to build a roster because of large qb contract. We gotta draft a lot better of we go that route as the fa market will minimize.

What will happen?
Imho if he keeps playing at this pace they will offer a team friendly contract (below market value), and if he doesn't want to take one, he will be elsewhere next year. This last off season showed to me kam will let players walk if it doesn't fit his plan.

[Cliff]

Re: Cap hit.

They were going to sign Cousins to a pretty big deal. Having a higher priced QB was actually part of the original plan. They spent the money in other places because they could, but I'm betting they would switch back to their original plan if Darnold turns out to be worth it.

I think letting a 36 year old Cousins walk is different than 27 year old Darnold. Again, assuming Darnold sustains this level.

[CharVike]

Here is a take from Ian Rap and his take is the Vikings drafted JJM to be the franchise QB. He compares Sam's rise similar to Mayfield like everybody else. He will stay with the Bucs but they don't have another guy that is there franchise waiting. He feels he will be the top FA QB but what will that bring is a big question. Many here question a big QB salary and you can't build a roster with that. Like always to build a team that continually competes you must draft very well. The Ravens have no problem. Chiefs same deal. The Lions look strong with a high paid QB. This nonsense of building on a QB rookie deal only is wrong. KAM's FA signings haven't all been home runs. When a big time player hits FA the pay will be over the top so your cap will suffer. If a shut down CB hits the market which they hardly ever do the cost will be through the roof. Be the top paid player. There's no getting around not drafting well. But you certainly need a QB that can play and the number of them in the NFL is very low. The guy for the Texans is a young gun but he had a stinker against us. Love even looked horrible early but then flipped the switch. The smarter teams trade guys for something before they hit FA.

[makila]

Re: Cap hit.

They were going to sign Cousins to a pretty big deal. Having a higher priced QB was actually part of the original plan. They spent the money in other places because they could, but I'm betting they would switch back to their original plan if Darnold turns out to be worth it.

I think letting a 36 year old Cousins walk is different than 27 year old Darnold. Again, assuming Darnold sustains this level.

I agree it's different. Completely. Cousins had a more proven track record and Darnold is a lot younger.

They did budget a plan for bringing Cousins back. It was obviously a below market deal though, that they wanted him to accept. So I assume based on that, they'd offer Darnold a below market contract in hopes he'd stay. They didnt want to give Cousins a 3-4 yr deal. Again assuming keeps playing at a high level.

They also did spend that money. And it was well worth it imho. They'd have to rework deals if that money given to defenders was allocated for a vet qb.

[VikingLord]

Here's another question.

At what point during this season would the Vikings need to act on an extension if they decided they wanted to retain Darnold over the longer term? Or would it be better to not let that distract from an otherwise great season? Or maybe it would become an issue for Darnold if he's playing really well and the Vikings aren't starting those conversations? Or maybe they just tell Darnold they want to keep him and they'll start contract negotiations in earnest once the season wraps up?

Man, this is what is commonly called a good problem to have, but it is also a vexing problem because the Vikings did invest in McCarthy and McCarthy does look like he could be the real deal too. In his limited offseason work he reminded me of the QB version of Cris Carter - all he does is throw TD passes. So it's tough to be so "QB rich" all of a sudden after that position has been sort of a problem child for this team for so long.