Vikings at Packers

[VikingLord]

Well, here we at at Week 4 with the Vikings undefeated and leading the NFC North and the Packers with a single loss and looking to defend their home turf in the first divisional contest for either team this year. While it does seem early to treat this as a game that could be pivotal for either team, the Vikings want to keep their momentum going and take firm command of the NFC North while the Packers want to pull even with the Vikings and prove they can keep playing at a high level regardless of who is at QB for them. This could be a fascinating game to watch on multiple levels, starting with the Vikings offense against the Packers defense.

The Packers defense is firmly middle-of-the-road overall, and it's not like they've played teams that have been enjoying a lot of offensive success. They rank 20th overall, 22nd against the pass yielding an average of 222.7 YPG, 10th against the run with an average of 105.7 YPG, and are 12th in scoring defense giving up 19.3 PPG on average. While those numbers aren't notable, what the Packers have been doing really well on defense is creating turnovers where they rank first in the NFL with a +7 margin over 3 games. This is a big part of their success when they have won, and if they can continue this against the Vikings on Sunday it will be a big contributor to enable them to take over the lead in the NFC North.

For the Vikings offense, continuing to execute in both the run and pass will be key as will avoiding penalties. Despite their scoring proclivity this year, the Vikings offense clocks in at #12 overall, a surprising 16th in passing at 204.7 YPG and 13th in rushing at 125.0 YPG. But it is their 3rd-ranked scoring offense that has been most notable at 38.3 PPG. In effect, the Vikings offense hasn't been dominant to the degree their record would indicate. Yes, they've played some pretty good defenses the first 3 weeks (and yes, I consider the Giants to have a pretty good defense overall, especially in their front 7), but these numbers indicate an offense scoring TDs rather than field goals and not an offense that has ground it's way down the field or has dominated TOP.

I generally like this matchup overall. Sam Darnold still has plenty of doubters around the league, and I suspect those folks to remain doubters until the very end of this season based on his body of work coming into this season, but I think he'll continue to play well. I think the Vikings offense should be able to move the ball and score on the Packers defense, provided they avoid turnovers and penalties.

When the Vikings are on defense, that is where this game looks like it could get really interesting. First off, it looks like this is the game where Jordan Love will return, and that is a significant change to a Packers offense that has been very productive over the last 2 weeks. Malik Willis has led the Packers to the 5th ranked overall offense, primarily on the strength of the RPO, with the Packers passing offense clocking in at #22 overall with 187.7 YPG, but the rushing attack ranking 1st overall at 204.0 YPG. This productivity coupled with the turnover differential has resulted in a 7th ranked Packers scoring offense at 25.0 PPG. But, does this change with Love as their starting QB? Love is not Willis and is not as inclined to run. I suppose the Packers could throw Willis out there for some RPO looks or alter how they approach the offensive playcalling with Love at QB, but if they just pop Love back out there I would expect them to fall back to a more traditional offensive attack that lets the running backs run and relies on Love's arm to move the ball through the air. One thing is for sure - the Vikings defense has to be prepared for either QB and either type of attack as I expect LaFluer knows he has options now at QB and he may decide to be more creative as a result.

The Vikings defense has gotten lots of notice and lots of credit, but surprisingly, it's not one of the league's top units by a long shot so far, ranking just 14th overall with a 26th rated passing defense that has surrendered 239.3 YPG that is somewhat balanced by a 2nd ranked rushing defense that concedes 71.3 yards per game. But it is in scoring defense where the Vikings have truly shone, giving up a measly 10 PPG which is good for 2nd best in the league. Some of the passing yardage numbers are the result of the team being so far ahead later in games as all 3 of their opponents thus far have needed to try to play catchup. Of course, that could also explain their rushing ranking, but overall, this is a good, but not elite, defense thus far. They've been really good getting after the passer and really good at keeping opponents out of the endzone, but not necessarily good at getting off the field or limiting those scoring chances. Time will tell if Flores is managing this success with smoke and mirrors, or if this Vikings defense is capable of more consistently shutting down opposing passing games and limiting scoring chances.

I'm not as sure how I feel about the Packers offense versus the Vikings defense matchup, especially if LaFluer mixes looks using a combo of Love and Willis. The Vikings defense has seen some really talented offenses the last two weeks, so if there is a bright side to this matchup it is that the Vikings defenders have already gone against very effective schemes and players and have held their own, and the Packers don't present anything that is beyond what the Vikings have already seen. But still, this is another stiff test and may be the matchup that decides the game.

I like the special teams matchup for the Vikings against every team they'll face this year, and I don't think this game will come down to special teams either way.

The betting line in this game is Vikings +2.5, which means the Vikings are slight favorites considering the home team normally starts +3, and I think that is about right.

I think this game will be the tightest game the Vikings have played so far this year, but I still think they win by a TD:

Vikings - 28
Packers - 21

[CharVike]

This is an even game with home field an advantage and turnovers being the deciding factor. I think the Packers are a step in front of us on offense and they did produce game 1 against the Eagles. The last 2 games they didn't need to do much on O based on the opponents they faced. I think we are several steps in front of them on defense. A poster mentioned the signing of Van Ginkel as a good move and they were right. The Packer D is a big problem which is why they switched DC's this season and changed to a 4-3 scheme. They have 11 sacks so far but 8 came last week against a pitiful OL. I expect them to try and bring pressure up the middle against Ingram, who isn't very good, and Bradbury or whoever they plug in if he can't go. I think if we play clean ball and don't give the game away with turnovers then we win. I see it 21-17 us.

[psjordan]

I think the Vikings offense should be able to move the ball and score on the Packers defense, provided they avoid turnovers and penalties.

And injuries. I like our offense but we are already down a few major contributors and I just don't think we can overcome another key injury on offense. What we trot out there is pretty thin, although I really like our depth at WR.

When the Vikings are on defense, that is where this game looks like it could get really interesting. First off, it looks like this is the game where Jordan Love will return...

I'm generally pretty positive about this matchup regardless - I think Flores just loves going against inexperienced QB's, and I consider Love in about the Stroud category - young with a few great games under his belt. Willis is several notches below that IMO. The only mitigating factor for me in assuming Flores dominates another young QB is LaFleur. I think he's a pretty sharp coach and has three games worth of tape to help (whereas Shanahan only had a game to study).

So I think this comes down to our D against their O as the critical matchup. And I give the edge to Flores, as I think he just has SO many pieces he can work with on this D. And I have not looked but I hope Turner is back.

Vikings by 4.

[Cliff]

When it comes to division play it's hard to call the games. Given history, the Vikings are about due to put up a stinker but I hope it's not this week. I try to remind myself that KOC is actually a really good coach though and perhaps there won't be a steep downturn. He went 13-4 his first season, lost Cousins in week 8 last year in the middle of a 6 game win streak or who knows how it would have turned out. Then this year the team is 3-0 having gone up against teams people were sure they'd lose to. People thought they'd start the season 0-6 or 1-5 because of the Giants. Instead they're playing like one of the top teams in the league.

As long as they don't turn the ball over I think they win. I think KOC-led teams are undefeated when the turnover ratio is even or in the Vikings favor. When the players execute the plan without coughing up the ball this team wins.

[makila]

Division rivalry games are difficult for me to use logic with haha. And I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Vikings. Yes total beaten down fan perspective.

I think is a pretty good matchup, for both teams to learn about themselves.

As said above by psjordan, let's get out healthy. Think we win by 3 on a fg by the rookie who's last name I spell wrong every time. I should get it committed to memory as I think he's here more than one year. Haha.

[cmoss84]

Love is likely to play...and likely to have a target on him from our D.

[nyvike1960]

Why is Flores letting them back into game. KOC calling conservative plays! Finish them off!

[CharVike]

Never thought it would come down to an onside kick after the big lead but I'll take the win no matter how it comes. Good balanced attack on O.

[Cliff]

Never thought it would come down to an onside kick after the big lead but I'll take the win no matter how it comes. Good balanced attack on O.

That fumble on the punt really shifted momentum hard.

[halfgiz]

Only thing to say is 4-0….But way closer than it needed to be.

[VikingLord]

OK, before I get into the game I just wanted to mention how god awful the refs were in this game starting with giving the Packer DB the INT when he clearly hadn't gotten control before going out of bounds. I mean, there are times when I wonder if games are fixed or at least the refs are favoring one team, and that seems like as clear cut an example of suspicious interference by the refs in the outcome of a game as any I've seen. So wanted to get that off my chest because the Vikings were driving at that point and probably would have had at least 3 points on that drive.

Along those same lines, what exactly was the ref looking at when he called JJ's beautiful sideline catch incomplete late? Every replay shows not just JJ's catch, but a ref about 10 yards up field looking right at it. I don't get it. Again, the challenge corrects the call but really? And then my last major complaint with the refs was the 4th down run near the goal line that it looked like Nailor converted. I mean, his body and the ball were well over the line to gain, and yet the spot wasn't even close to the line to gain. On replays it didn't look like his knee touched before he got it over the line to gain either. Yes, his foot did slip but it didn't appear his knee touched, and yet the refs marked him as if it had. There were several plays KOC had to ask for reviews on too that were overturned. Really suspicious day for a group of NFL refs. The NFL may have it's favorites I'm sure, but this is the type of stuff that makes me not want to watch pro football and it seems like the Vikings are always on the wrong side of it when it happens.

Now, for the actual game.

The Vikings looked like the Vikings we've watched in the first half on both sides of the ball. They moved the ball on offense, scored TDs, and were disruptive and aggressive on defense. Then, Nailor muffs the punt (which was a terrible decision on his part to try to field the ball in the 1st place), and what, KOC and Flores go Dennis Green in the 2nd half of the 1998 NFC Championship Game on us? I mean, what was that on offense in the 2nd half? Lots of conservative playcalls. Lots of poor throws. I give the Packers defense credit for their aggression, but there is no way a depleted secondary like the Packers fielded today should be completely shutting down the Vikings receivers for an entire half. Not sure where the blame lies exactly. Darnold seemed skittish and unsure of himself throughout most of the 2nd half, and the protection breakdowns that happened I'm sure didn't help that. We had false start penalties. Not sure if they relaxed or what but man they did their part to get the Packer offense back on the field and our defense got gassed as a result. That can't be allowed to happen again. This should serve as a good wakeup call for the offense and coaches not to even think about taking their foot off the gas no matter how big their lead is.

And defensively, either the Packers figured something out or the Vikings completely broke down, especially in the passing game. Love was chucking it short, middle, deep, with nary a Viking defender in sight a lot of the time. Some of the throws were so ridiculously easy I'm sure they were just blown coverages, but if so, why did it happen so consistently? If the Packers figured out how to attack Flores defense, then we can expect every offense they will face from here on out to replicate what the Packers just did, and that doesn't bode well. If the defense just got tired or didn't communicate well in the 2nd half, I guess I can accept that explanation as well. But it was not a good look for a unit that had played very well and was very stingy in scoring up to this game.

I'd like to focus on the positives here but this should be a shot across the bow for the Vikings. They have won literally nothing yet. There is no reason to be afraid of losing or try to play drain-the-clock no matter how far they are ahead. This is a team that is going to win by attacking and being aggressive on both sides of the ball. They will struggle mightily if they try to protect leads and play conservatively, and in the NFL there is no safe lead. I hope they learned that lesson well today and didn't have to pay for it with a loss.

[Cliff]

Post game thoughts.

The refs really tried to help the Packers out there. 3 challenges all overturned and they still manage to botch the INT call.

The defense seems to have problems against the hurry up offense. Or possibly they were tired. They were really great in the 1st half and came up with the INT when they really needed it.

I'm happy with our kickers (jinx?)

The conservative play calling starting in the 3rd almost cost the game. In the end, they did what they needed to do though.

It was nice to have the team hold on even when the momentum shifted.

Addison played great, hes a great piece to have next to Jefferson. Jefferson came through when he was needed most. Jones ran well, would have been nice for him to score. Darnold looked fantastic in the 1st half but seemed really antsy finishing up. They got down the field when it mattered towards the end tho.

The botched return ... ugh. Probably would have finished out the half 31-0 or 35-0 if not for that.

3rd straight "underdog" win.

[ERIK the PURPLE]

I’m probably in the minority opinion, but I thought the Refs did well by us today. I’ve seen too many games at Lambeau where the Vikes were called with drive killing holding penalties or pass interference. There was a game about 25 years ago where the Packers eeked out a win and days later the NFL admitted 11 bad calls against the Vikes. Most in the 4th qtr.
Anyway, I feel Boy Wonder gets too clever for his own good with the playcalling sometimes. We had a 3rd and 1 and we try a 15 yard slant. Inside the 30, I don’t mind being conservative. Take the sure points when you can get them (Love our kicker). Also, when we need to move the chains on 3rd down, throw short instead of bombing away.
And twice, we’ve let teams go 70 yds or more in like 3 or 4 plays for Tds. Makes no sense going soft. Our 3 man rush is not effective.

[CharVike]

Never thought it would come down to an onside kick after the big lead but I'll take the win no matter how it comes. Good balanced attack on O.

That fumble on the punt really shifted momentum hard.

It gave them new life. Nailor was filling in on that play for Powell and it looked like he lost the ball in the sun or it kept sailing. Either way let it hit the ground. You don't see many trying to catch a punt with their hands raised. Looked like a fly ball catch.

[wease59]

When they flubbed punt in the game i got worried. They always have a hard time to focus on the plan and fall apart. The second half they stopped the pressure on Love and went to zone defense and they looked shaky. A great team can play man to man D but a win is a win so keep it up boys.