Off-season Prediction Thread

[VikingsVictorious]

1. Let Kirk walk

2. Sign JJ to a big deal

3. Re-sign Hunter

4. Trade our first and a second for Justin Fields

I wouldn't trade our 2nd for Fields. Maybe a 3rd so he can be an OK backup.

[CharVike]

It's early for predictions. I think Flores stays and so they will listen to him about defensive players. I'm not to concerned with the cap because that always works out. I don't see an Aikman or Luck type of talent in this draft. I see another trade down to nowhere ville like pick 30 to try and get a 3rd rounder which we don't have. With that we will drop and get a 5th and 7th rounder and Kewsi will talk about the great value he got. Kirk will be signed because we have nothing on deck and I think he's a good player. Woonan needs to be signed or tagged. Once he got hurt our D was toast because of no pressure, hurries or sacks. No secondary can hold up when the QB just stands there waiting for guys to clear. Risner needs to be signed. I like his attitude. He's a mean SOB looking to drive people off the ball. He's not the best but he's not a total stiff either. Ingram will get another training season working on his foot movement, balance, hand placement ect..... No pressure since he was a draft pick. Cine and Booth will sit around getting money for nothing again. Same as Ingram no pressure. We would be golden if all 3 of those guys were rising stars. Bad drafting will kill a team. As a side a guy I like in this upcoming draft is G Layden Robinson Texas A&M 6-4 315.
They also note that while he has some athletic limitations, he is strong and is a people mover at the point of attack. Robinson is a tough, nasty, power right guard for at the next level. He could be limited on some of the wide zone-run plays in the NFL because he lacks foot quickness and overall athletic ability. Still, he is a violent player. That's what I like. A mean people mover. So he won't be picked.

[cmoss84]

JJ signs 3/100
Kirk signs 2/50

Hunter signs for big money elsewhere.

We trade back and get Mccarthy. He learns from captain kirk for 2 years. We draft Michigan RB in 4th (Edwards) Mattison cut.

[VikingLord]

I can say this - both Cousins and Hunter are at the tail ends of their productive years based on what the stats say for players at their positions at their respective ages. Each individual is unique, of course, but the Vikings would be foolish to make longer-term investments in either, especially if those investments would take up a lot of future cap space.

JJ is entering the prime of his career, so he'd be worth a longer term investment as they can reasonably expect him to continue to perform at a high level. Even there, though, they have to consider what an individual contract does to their ability to compete as a team.

I feel like they're going to find a way to bring Cousins back for at least a year, Hunter will walk, and if they haven't traded JJ before the draft, JJ will be extended for 4-5 years with the richest contract ever for a WR.

[Cliff]

Whether or not you're impressed with it is kind of irrelevant to the issue though. At the end regardless of whatever you think about the team they went 13-4 his first year. In his second year the record regressed but he also had incredibly bad luck with injuries. Unless he implodes this isn't a make or break year. If they don't draft a QB now (even if they sign Cousins) it really will be too late.

I look at more than record. We played a weak schedule and barely squeaked out most wins. We played Miami with Bridgewater. The Saints with Dalton. Got obliterated by the Cowboys. Had one of the all time lucky wins over Buffalo. Then lost to a very average Giants team with Daniel Jones at home. They lost to every good team they played with the exception of Buffalo and I already mentioned the miracles that took.

Yeah sure they had injuries but whose fault is it that they haven't drafted a developmental QB with a legit shot to take over for Kirk already? They've had two years and the best they could find to back him up is Hall and Mullens. They had to panic trade for Dobbs. Knowing Kirk's contract is expiring. That's bad roster building and a lack of planning.

A coach has to have things together at least on some level to put together a 13 win season. Period. A bad coach finds a way to lose to teams they should beat. I won't hate on him for the Vikings beating teams they should have beat. The 49ers strength of schedule was similar to the Vikings last year and nobody says anything. Philly too.

As far as drafting a developmental guy in 2022 ... would that have helped? Some 5th round Jalen Hall type drafted in 2022 instead of 2023 (when Hall was drafted) would have been competition to Cousins and saved the season? I just don't see it. Jalen Hall in his second year isn't going to be a crazy amount better, I don't think.

Anyway, if the rumors are true, they actually did try to address it. They targeted Anthony Richardson who would have sat behind Cousins for a year and ready to step in next season. They also can't help the draft position they were in and not being able to find a trade partner.

[Cliff]

Whether or not you're impressed with it is kind of irrelevant to the issue though. At the end regardless of whatever you think about the team they went 13-4 his first year. In his second year the record regressed but he also had incredibly bad luck with injuries. Unless he implodes this isn't a make or break year. If they don't draft a QB now (even if they sign Cousins) it really will be too late.

Signing Kirk for two more years and drafting a QB that they believe in is the right way to do this. Hopefully KAM can get it right drafting a QB.

This was my line of thinking at first but as you know it isn't any longer. While that seems like the safe play for the QB position it likely means they either can't sign Jefferson (he's too popular and brings in too much money, they'll sign him) or Hunter. Flores' defense needs a Hunter type to work. I believe without his production, that defense would have been awful.

Next, is Kirk actually the safe bet? He's a 35 year old QB that just tore his achilles. To this point he's been pretty injury free but is it going to end up being like a car you've had for 10 years that starts having problems? Nothing is wrong and then one day there's a major issue with the engine. You fix it because it's been a pretty good car. Then the starter goes out. Then the transmission goes out. Then there's an oil leak. Etc., Etc.

Signing Kirk to a one year deal might work out, but he's not going to go for that. This is probably his last good NFL contract coming up, he'll probably want 3 or 4 years from someone. Drafting a QB would have been best last year when JJ was on his rookie deal which is why I believe they tried hard to do so. Letting Kirk walk after that would have been an easy choice. Now they have to make a tough decision.

[VikingLord]

4. Trade our first and a second for Justin Fields

If you get a chance read the article at this link and tell me if you still think Fields is worth a 1st and a 2nd:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/392 ... -nfl-draft

A few highlights from that article if you don't have time to read it:

Through Sunday's games, Fields ranks last in the NFL this season among 31 qualified quarterbacks in fourth-quarter completion percentage (51.8%), is 25th in yards per attempt (5.9), tied for 29th in fourth-quarter interceptions (6) and 30th in QBR (20.4), per ESPN Stats & Information research.

Since joining the league in 2021, Fields is last among 38 qualified quarterbacks in fourth-quarter interceptions (16), 36th in completion percentage (56.2%) and 33rd in QBR (41.4). Conversely, his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4.3 in the first three quarters this season is the NFL's fourth best among 31 qualified quarterbacks.

When evaluators around the league watch Fields, they can't help but notice what holds him back -- mainly, a tendency to hold on to the ball too long from the pocket, failing to see routes develop. He's last in the league among 31 qualified quarterbacks in average time per pass (3.23 seconds) in 2023, and last among 38 qualified quarterbacks in that metric since entering the league (3.10 seconds). In 37 career starts, Fields has surpassed 225 passing yards six times. Eighteen NFL starters average at least 230 yards per game this season.

Is that production worth a 1st and 2nd? Or even a 2nd? I'm not sure it is.

In my view, if Fields was really a franchise QB nobody in Chicago would be talking about drafting a QB, even with the 1st pick. They'd be talking about possibly trading back a bit and taking Harrison Jr. to pair with Fields for the next decade.

[VikingLord]

Flores' defense needs a Hunter type to work. I believe without his production, that defense would have been awful.

There is a good chance that Hunter's production will drop off dramatically soon, perhaps as soon as next season, but very likely by the season after next. See https://bleacherreport.com/articles/168 ... fl-players for the hard data on that.

From that article regarding defensive ends:

After a defensive lineman's seventh year in the NFL, his time is very, very short. Look at the huge drop-off in qualifying starters from year seven to year eight, and from year nine to year 10. The decline flattens for a while, as the best defensive linemen can stick around a very long time, but the quick development, long plateau and quick decline is obvious.

Hunter was drafted by the Vikings in 2015, which made 2023 his 8th season. He came into the league fairly young, so for Hunter, his 8th year was probably more like the 7th year for the typical defensive end. Still, the aggregate stats don't lie, and if KAM were a betting man based on the odds, he'd have to bet that Hunter is nearing the production cliff if he hasn't already started to go over it.

[VikingsVictorious]

Flores' defense needs a Hunter type to work. I believe without his production, that defense would have been awful.

There is a good chance that Hunter's production will drop off dramatically soon, perhaps as soon as next season, but very likely by the season after next. See https://bleacherreport.com/articles/168 ... fl-players for the hard data on that.

From that article regarding defensive ends:

After a defensive lineman's seventh year in the NFL, his time is very, very short. Look at the huge drop-off in qualifying starters from year seven to year eight, and from year nine to year 10. The decline flattens for a while, as the best defensive linemen can stick around a very long time, but the quick development, long plateau and quick decline is obvious.

Hunter was drafted by the Vikings in 2015, which made 2023 his 8th season. He came into the league fairly young, so for Hunter, his 8th year was probably more like the 7th year for the typical defensive end. Still, the aggregate stats don't lie, and if KAM were a betting man based on the odds, he'd have to bet that Hunter is nearing the production cliff if he hasn't already started to go over it.

My vibe is that Hunter has at least 2 good years left. I trust my vibe over your stats.

[Cliff]

There is a good chance that Hunter's production will drop off dramatically soon, perhaps as soon as next season, but very likely by the season after next. See https://bleacherreport.com/articles/168 ... fl-players for the hard data on that.

From that article regarding defensive ends:



Hunter was drafted by the Vikings in 2015, which made 2023 his 8th season. He came into the league fairly young, so for Hunter, his 8th year was probably more like the 7th year for the typical defensive end. Still, the aggregate stats don't lie, and if KAM were a betting man based on the odds, he'd have to bet that Hunter is nearing the production cliff if he hasn't already started to go over it.

My vibe is that Hunter has at least 2 good years left. I trust my vibe over your stats.

I get that "vibe" too. More than that though, I don't think you can ditch a guy that got the 5th most sacks last year and is obviously a great fit for the defense. Effective edge rushers are tough to come by. If they walk away from him and he drops off the map then great, good job. If they walk away from Hunter and he has 10+ sacks while the Vikings defense flounders it's going to look *really* bad.

[VikingLord]

There is a good chance that Hunter's production will drop off dramatically soon, perhaps as soon as next season, but very likely by the season after next. See https://bleacherreport.com/articles/168 ... fl-players for the hard data on that.

From that article regarding defensive ends:



Hunter was drafted by the Vikings in 2015, which made 2023 his 8th season. He came into the league fairly young, so for Hunter, his 8th year was probably more like the 7th year for the typical defensive end. Still, the aggregate stats don't lie, and if KAM were a betting man based on the odds, he'd have to bet that Hunter is nearing the production cliff if he hasn't already started to go over it.

My vibe is that Hunter has at least 2 good years left. I trust my vibe over your stats.

[VikingLord]

My vibe is that Hunter has at least 2 good years left. I trust my vibe over your stats.

I get that "vibe" too. More than that though, I don't think you can ditch a guy that got the 5th most sacks last year and is obviously a great fit for the defense. Effective edge rushers are tough to come by. If they walk away from him and he drops off the map then great, good job. If they walk away from Hunter and he has 10+ sacks while the Vikings defense flounders it's going to look *really* bad.

On the flip side, if Hunter's production declines dramatically next year and KAM shelled out top dollar for him, that isn't going to look good either.

[Cliff]

I get that "vibe" too. More than that though, I don't think you can ditch a guy that got the 5th most sacks last year and is obviously a great fit for the defense. Effective edge rushers are tough to come by. If they walk away from him and he drops off the map then great, good job. If they walk away from Hunter and he has 10+ sacks while the Vikings defense flounders it's going to look *really* bad.

On the flip side, if Hunter's production declines dramatically next year and KAM shelled out top dollar for him, that isn't going to look good either.

Nah. He's shown no signs of slowing down. They can't predict the future. I'll be way more upset if they let him walk and he ends up in GB with top 5 in sacks again, for example.

[cmoss84]

JJ signs 3/100
Kirk signs 2/50

Hunter signs for big money elsewhere.

We trade back and get Mccarthy. He learns from captain kirk for 2 years. We draft Michigan RB in 4th (Edwards) Mattison cut.

My boy already scored for Michigan. He fast.

[CharVike]

4. Trade our first and a second for Justin Fields

If you get a chance read the article at this link and tell me if you still think Fields is worth a 1st and a 2nd:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/392 ... -nfl-draft

A few highlights from that article if you don't have time to read it:

Through Sunday's games, Fields ranks last in the NFL this season among 31 qualified quarterbacks in fourth-quarter completion percentage (51.8%), is 25th in yards per attempt (5.9), tied for 29th in fourth-quarter interceptions (6) and 30th in QBR (20.4), per ESPN Stats & Information research.

Since joining the league in 2021, Fields is last among 38 qualified quarterbacks in fourth-quarter interceptions (16), 36th in completion percentage (56.2%) and 33rd in QBR (41.4). Conversely, his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4.3 in the first three quarters this season is the NFL's fourth best among 31 qualified quarterbacks.

When evaluators around the league watch Fields, they can't help but notice what holds him back -- mainly, a tendency to hold on to the ball too long from the pocket, failing to see routes develop. He's last in the league among 31 qualified quarterbacks in average time per pass (3.23 seconds) in 2023, and last among 38 qualified quarterbacks in that metric since entering the league (3.10 seconds). In 37 career starts, Fields has surpassed 225 passing yards six times. Eighteen NFL starters average at least 230 yards per game this season.

Is that production worth a 1st and 2nd? Or even a 2nd? I'm not sure it is.

In my view, if Fields was really a franchise QB nobody in Chicago would be talking about drafting a QB, even with the 1st pick. They'd be talking about possibly trading back a bit and taking Harrison Jr. to pair with Fields for the next decade.

Depends on what your looking for. If you want a guy that can run he's a little better than legend Bobby Douglass in Bears history. That's impressive. If your looking for a true passer he isn't worth anything. Now they will spend another draft pick for the greatest college QB ever Cleopatra. They can have it. That's a non QB player pushed towards us. I hope another 4 get picked before our pick. We might get the best OL or DL player available. Day 1 starter who can play good ball. You can't ask for anything better. Based on history though we are screwed. Kewsi will deal away from the talent and look for more bodies to fill out the roster. It never can work that way. Take the stud first.