What It Will Take to Get to 3-3 - Panthers Pregame

[VikingLord]

So the Vikings somehow are 2-3. It honestly doesn't feel like they should be 2-3, but then again, it does. I feel like they didn't deserve to beat the Lions and did, while I feel like they didn't deserve to lose to the Cardinals and did. So maybe it evens out.

To get to .500 this week, however, they need to go on the road to a place where they've seemed to struggle against a team that is in many ways similar to them. I'll start with the Vikings defense against the Panthers offense.

So what do the Panthers do well on offense? Well, statistically speaking, not too much. They're middle of the road in yards per game, a notch below the Vikings in both passing yards and rushing yards, while ahead of the Vikings in points per game. Sam Darnold started off the year pretty well at QB for them in their 3 wins to open the season, albeit with two of those wins coming against the Jets and Texans. He's cooled off a bit in the last two games, displaying some of the worrying decision-making that results in poor throws into coverage and/or turnovers. The Vikings defense should be able to force him into more of those types of errors. Whether the defense can take advantage of those errors remains to be seen, but Darnold can be a major liability for the Panthers if the Vikings can pressure him with their front four. The Vikings DBs should be aggressive in this game. They should be looking to jump routes and take some chances if that pressure materializes. Darnold can hurt them over the top, but he's not a QB who is going to consistently buy time and throw deep strikes. This is a game to not sit back and play "wait for the opposing offense to make a mistake". Hopefully the Vikings realize that and look to create turnovers in the passing game. There should be plenty of opportunities to do that.

That, of course, leads to looking at the Panther run game against the Vikings run defense, and here I'm not so sure. Granted, Christian McCaffrey is out, so that should bode well for the Vikings. And it's not that the Panthers have a particularly powerful run game, or that Darnold is a particularly dangerous QB when he decides to take off running. No, for me there is a more a sense that the Vikings defense is just incapable of consistent play against the run. The Vikings rank around 23rd against the run so far this year. They've struggled to slow all opposing running games they've faced regardless of who has been on the field for the most part. I think at this point they're going on around 15? consecutive games of allowing 100+ rushing yards, and I really don't see that changing here. I don't think their inability to stop the run has to do with their overall talent. I think it has far more to do with a combination of their gap discipline (or mostly lack thereof) coupled with plain lack of awareness in their front 7. Lots of big gainers are coming when Vikings LBs shoot a gap before the RB has committed to it. They consistently collapse the edges and allow big cutback lanes to open up. They take poor angles when attempting to tackle. They get sealed off way too easily and quickly. Its just not a good run defense, and while I don't think this factor will be decisive against a team like the Panthers, there are plenty of teams the Vikings will face this season where their inability to stop the run will be. The Panthers should easily put up another 100+ on them this Sunday.

The Vikings on offense worry me. They're moderately banged up at the skill positions, and if the Panthers can do one thing well on defense this year, its get after the passer. The Panthers are actually the #1 defense against the pass in the NFL. And while they have played some crappy teams, they also held Dak Prescott to 188 yards passing on 14-22 in their loss to the Cowboys. They can defend the pass and get after the passer as well, so I don't expect Cousins to put up big numbers or the offense to generally move the ball through the air consistently. Adding to that, Kubiak's offensive plan thus far seems to be to work the short and medium passing game with lots of screens and quick hitters. Defenses sometimes struggle to adjust to this approach, especially early, but by the 2nd half they're playing against it pretty well. If the Vikings continue to do what they've been doing thus far on offense, the Panthers are a defense that can literally shut them down to the point where the Vikings will struggle to sustain drives, much less score. It could be a redux of the game we saw against the Browns where the Vikings move it early, but then can't get untracked the rest of the game. This game is going to be plainly on Kubiak and the coaches to show they understand how defenses are anticipating what the Vikings will do and adjust accordingly. If we don't see that, it bodes poorly for the remainder of this season IMHO. The Vikings simply have to open up the field in the passing game. We have to see more deep attempts even if they don't pan out. Not reckless attempts, but a few throws over the top to let the opposing defense know they have to defend the entire field and can't cheat up or cheat into certain areas.

The Panthers aren't a bad run defense either, although their stats against the run might have been buttressed a bit by some of the offenses they've faced thus far. There are some potential weaknesses here, but the Vikings ability to exploit those is going to depend in large part on how effectively they can force the Panthers DBs and LBs to respect the threat of the pass. If the Vikings offense keeps playing conservatively in the passing game, that allows the Panthers to compress the field around the LOS, which in turn is going to make running it consistently much more difficult. It doesn't help that Cook might not be 100%, and Mattison might not be either. Regardless, I don't expect the Vikings to be able to exert their will running against the Panthers in this game. They're going to have to find their passing legs to open up the run.

Special teams is largely a wash. I don't think either team's punter or field goal kickers will decide this game.

As much as a I hate to say it, I don't see the Vikings winning this game. It's an outdoor road game on the East Coast against a team that seemingly matches up against the Vikings strengths pretty well. While the Panthers probably can't exploit the Vikings weaknesses consistently, I just don't think the Vikings are going to be able to move the ball at all in this game. If they do score it will be early ala what we saw against the Browns, and after that I expect the Panthers to largely pitch a shutout. So to win, the Vikings defense has to absolutely shut the Panthers offense down, and while I think they can limit the Panthers most of the game, its those glaring lapses and segments of games where the defense falls apart that worry me.

I'm going to give this one to the home team as a brutal stretch starts for the Vikings on a sour note:

Vikings - 7
Panthers - 21

[RandyMoss84]

I do not see Vikings winning this game but if they do, it would be a nice surprise

[CharVike]

I don't think the Panthers are a very good team. They started off 3-0 and there defense only gave up 30 points total. They played against two rookie QBs and Winston. The rookies struggled and Famous Jamesis was useless in his game. Dallas had no problem week 4 and put up 36. The Eagles beat them and had 21 with there dual threat running for a couple scores. This is a dream game for Zim and will play his early 70s style of football. Many felt last week was boring but wait until this game because you aint seen nothing yet. The Panthers on offense don't have too much. Mac is out and they have a rookie 4th rounder filling in. He did gain 100 yards last week so he will be the bell cow this week and will get some yards because we can't stop the run. Darnold who looked to be reborn by playing great the first 3 games has slowly been reverting back to being the bum he is. 2 and 3 interceptions the last two games made winning almost impossible. This will be a TOP game. The Panthers will try and run the ball and limit the passes Darnold throws to dinkers. They can't risk him turning it over. Our offense will get back to our Kubesteak attack and pound the ball trying to get into FG position and taking time off the clock like early 70s football. Cousins lowest pass attempt game was against Atlanta when he had 10. I see us with 8 to 10 pass attempts this game with dump offs to the backs and TE. Not much pass yardage in this one. Cook will have a good game as he is rested and break off a few runs while Matti will make a contribution also. But I see him struggling because protecting the ball will be job one, killing the clock job 2 and yardage a nice to have. He'll go down at first contact to protect the ball. Not too much to get excited about here as both teams will play close to the vest, try to limit the mistakes and kill the clock with the ground game. Fans will wake up for half time and some will trickle out and do more exciting activities like mow the lawn. This yawn feast will have a weird score and I expect the Panthers to sneak out a 9-8 win. Our FG kicker will be in position again to make an easy FG for the road win but he will tighten up and block it right of the goal post. The Cousins haters will have a field day after this for his lack of yardage and limited points while ignoring the fact that it was the game plan to do that. I would prefer the opposite and attack with 3 WRs through the air looking for an opening drive score to get up before there D takes over the LOS. Make Darnold beat us through the air. Then apply pressure with our ends who are the strength of our D which will make him turn it over. That's what I would like so it won't happen that way of course.

[psjordan]

Good stuff in the above posts.

Here is my whacked-out take. The Cousins "celebration" with Zim knocked some sense into the old man, and players definitely chided him during the week for his reaction to Kirk. He is re-thinking this "stick to your guns but lose more close ones than you win" philosophy and tells Kub and the offense to tear the cover off the ball in the first quarter.

He tells them "you get up by 14, and you call the rest of the game. You are not up by more than three and we go back to my philosophy".

If you were Kub and the offense and Zim told you this on Monday, do you think you'd be pumped out of your mind for practice this week?

I'm calling it.

[CharVike]

Good stuff in the above posts.

Here is my whacked-out take. The Cousins "celebration" with Zim knocked some sense into the old man, and players definitely chided him during the week for his reaction to Kirk. He is re-thinking this "stick to your guns but lose more close ones than you win" philosophy and tells Kub and the offense to tear the cover off the ball in the first quarter.

He tells them "you get up by 14, and you call the rest of the game. You are not up by more than three and we go back to my philosophy".

If you were Kub and the offense and Zim told you this on Monday, do you think you'd be pumped out of your mind for practice this week?

I'm calling it.

whacked-out is a good phrase for your take and right-on is another. We are all saying the same thing with our own spin. Zim will turn a possible high scoring route as the boys did into a slug fest that will put us into a position that one late mistake could and this time will do us in. That mistake could be anything thing from a Cousins interception, a strip sack, a Cook fumble, bad shot gun snap from Bradbury, fumbled hold on a ending FG attempt or a Jefferson 4th and long dropped pass. For the haters any mistake would be blamed on Cousins. The possibilities are endless and impossible to hit unless you take about a million guesses. The best case is not to put yourself in that position. Zim won't take the best case. He'll take the long hard road to loserville.

[StumpHunter]

Good stuff in the above posts.

Here is my whacked-out take. The Cousins "celebration" with Zim knocked some sense into the old man, and players definitely chided him during the week for his reaction to Kirk. He is re-thinking this "stick to your guns but lose more close ones than you win" philosophy and tells Kub and the offense to tear the cover off the ball in the first quarter.

He tells them "you get up by 14, and you call the rest of the game. You are not up by more than three and we go back to my philosophy".

If you were Kub and the offense and Zim told you this on Monday, do you think you'd be pumped out of your mind for practice this week?

I'm calling it.

whacked-out is a good phrase for your take and right-on is another. We are all saying the same thing with our own spin. Zim will turn a possible high scoring route as the boys did into a slug fest that will put us into a position that one late mistake could and this time will do us in. That mistake could be anything thing from a Cousins interception, a strip sack, a Cook fumble, bad shot gun snap from Bradbury, fumbled hold on a ending FG attempt or a Jefferson 4th and long dropped pass. For the haters any mistake would be blamed on Cousins. The possibilities are endless and impossible to hit unless you take about a million guesses. The best case is not to put yourself in that position. Zim won't take the best case. He'll take the long hard road to loserville.

Zimmer has only lost 5 games as a HC when leading by any amount at the half. That is tied with GB for 3rd fewest over that time and better than NE, KC and NO. His single loss when leading going into the 4th was because of a missed chip shot FG in the 2015 playoffs.

There are things to be upset with this coaching staff about, blowing leads is not one of them.

[Dmizzle0]

HaI hate the fact that Im relieved that CMC is out for the Panthers. Anyways I think the Vikings are still a better team than their record shows. They are a missed fg from beating the Cardinals.

Vikings-34
Panthers-7

[CharVike]

whacked-out is a good phrase for your take and right-on is another. We are all saying the same thing with our own spin. Zim will turn a possible high scoring route as the boys did into a slug fest that will put us into a position that one late mistake could and this time will do us in. That mistake could be anything thing from a Cousins interception, a strip sack, a Cook fumble, bad shot gun snap from Bradbury, fumbled hold on a ending FG attempt or a Jefferson 4th and long dropped pass. For the haters any mistake would be blamed on Cousins. The possibilities are endless and impossible to hit unless you take about a million guesses. The best case is not to put yourself in that position. Zim won't take the best case. He'll take the long hard road to loserville.

Zimmer has only lost 5 games as a HC when leading by any amount at the half. That is tied with GB for 3rd fewest over that time and better than NE, KC and NO. His single loss when leading going into the 4th was because of a missed chip shot FG in the 2015 playoffs.

There are things to be upset with this coaching staff about, blowing leads is not one of them.

We blew a lead against the Browns. I think you missed that one. We were up on the Cards 20-7 and blew that one also. We were up on the Bengals and blew that one. Just take the games we were up and he blew without wrapping something else around it. The 1st three games I checked we were up and got beat. If I pick a time frame or some other criteria yes he don't lose many once having a lead. It don't work that way. What matters is the end and if we ever had a lead. He lost many of those.

[StumpHunter]

Zimmer has only lost 5 games as a HC when leading by any amount at the half. That is tied with GB for 3rd fewest over that time and better than NE, KC and NO. His single loss when leading going into the 4th was because of a missed chip shot FG in the 2015 playoffs.

There are things to be upset with this coaching staff about, blowing leads is not one of them.

We blew a lead against the Browns. I think you missed that one. We were up on the Cards 20-7 and blew that one also. We were up on the Bengals and blew that one. Just take the games we were up and he blew without wrapping something else around it. The 1st three games I checked we were up and got beat. If I pick a time frame or some other criteria yes he don't lose many once having a lead. It don't work that way. What matters is the end and if we ever had a lead. He lost many of those.

We were up in the first three games and got beat? Are you sure about that?

Every coach in the NFL loses games they have a lead in. I posted statistics that proved Zimmer does that less than the vast majority of coaches.

I am open to seeing you disprove that with stats of your own though.

The premise that Zimmer gets too content to sit on a lead and it costs us games just isn't true.

[Barry]

I'm in Charlotte for the game, so I'll do my part.

[Lash Man]

It will take the Vikings Offense to try to score points throughout the whole 60 minute game and not just the first 30 and it would help to hold opposing RB's under 5 yards a carry as well so they get in third and longs and the pass rush can pin back their ears and rush the passer .

[StumpHunter]

This Panther's D looks better than it is because of what they did to a bad Jets and Houston offense, and because they shut down the run against NO, making them try to beat them with the pass, something Winston just can't do.

Dallas, the only complete offense they have faced, destroyed them and put up 36 in the first 3 quarters before taking their foot off the gas after getting a lead of 22 on the Panthers. The Eagles are a mediocre offense with an inconsistent QB and even they had success against the Panthers.

Vikings can put up points against Carolina, and should be the 2nd most talented offense the Panthers have faced. If they don't it might be time to start looking at replacing the OC.

[CharVike]

We blew a lead against the Browns. I think you missed that one. We were up on the Cards 20-7 and blew that one also. We were up on the Bengals and blew that one. Just take the games we were up and he blew without wrapping something else around it. The 1st three games I checked we were up and got beat. If I pick a time frame or some other criteria yes he don't lose many once having a lead. It don't work that way. What matters is the end and if we ever had a lead. He lost many of those.

We were up in the first three games and got beat? Are you sure about that?

Every coach in the NFL loses games they have a lead in. I posted statistics that proved Zimmer does that less than the vast majority of coaches.

I am open to seeing you disprove that with stats of your own though.

The premise that Zimmer gets too content to sit on a lead and it costs us games just isn't true.

Here is what I posted The 1st three games I checked. That's not the first three games. Regardless we were up at some point and couldn't hold on because I'm sure you think it was because Cousins sucks. I think our D sucks and doesn't lay the hammer down when needed. We saw it last week. Zim blew that game but we got lucky and that useless stiff FG kicker we have made one for the win. The NFC champ game against the Eagles again we were up on the road and our D didn't hold it. You forgot that one also. That was for the Super Bowl birth. We were up 7-0 but couldn't stop some stiff backup QB from shredding us and of course the great Case didn't help either. You shut Foles down. I don't have a problem with Zim and his record is OK but his early 70s style don't fit our teams players. This 10 pass attempts in a game don't cut it and puts us in a bad position. We'll see the same BS today. Cook is back and Zim will pound him into the ground. Won't even think about getting Jefferson or Theilen involved until it's almost too late. At that point it's over anyway just kneel on it and go home and rethink your approach. Hopefully I'm wrong and he throws his early 70s style out the window and lights his opponent up. Get Jefferson rocking right off the bat. But the first play will be Cook up the gut into a wall for nothing. Everybody knows this. The ball girl knows it. 2nd play will be a pitch and a holding for a 10 yard loss and 2nd and 20. Just punt at that point because the series is over. I would like 1st play to be play action and then look for Jefferson on a deep post pattern. That will never happen with the Kubesteak ground attack. Zim had his chance. It's time to get a new body but I doubt that happens until his contract is up.

[S197]

I'm in Charlotte for the game, so I'll do my part.

Glad you got to see a win.