Convince me that Mike Zimmer should still be the head coach of the Vikings...GO!!!

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Re: Convince me that Mike Zimmer should still be the head coach of the Vikings...GO!!!

Post by VikingLord » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:06 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:47 pm
cogitator wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:53 pm
I heard this stat on the radio today - the team with the most average yards to go on third down - Vikings. Kind of a shocking number, the average yardage left is 8.9. Hardly seems possible that a team would only gain one yard on average over the first two downs.
What is even more shocking is that the Vikings are 18th in yards picked up on 1st down and 12th on 2nd down. So things are either going really right on 1st and 2nd down (they pick up a first), or really wrong (they lose yards or pick up nothing). Very little in between.

Part of that is the Vikings really struggle on 2nd down on 2nd and long, averaging the 7th fewest yards gained in that situation.

More surprising is that the Vikings are pretty much just as successful on 3rd and long (31% conversion rate- 4th best) as they are converting on 3rd and short (36 %-2nd to last). So even though we are facing a lot of 3rd and longs, it isn't necessarily the reason the offense is struggling. That 36 % is really bad btw. The best in the NFL convert on 3rd and short around 70% of the time and even the Jets managed 45.9% last year.
The even crazier part of that 3rd-and-short stat is that as best as I can recall, Cousins was usually money on 3rd-and-short. I was always more worried when the Vikings were in 3rd-and-6+ with Cousins as I felt he looked for his safety valve way too often on those down-distance situations, but just as that tendency hurt him in those, it helped him when it was 3rd-and-3-. Not this season so far.

I don't know if its the playcalling that is contributing to this, or the utter lack of any credible downfield passing attack that is allowing defenses to creep up in the secondary and snuff the shorter yardage plays out more consistently. Whatever it is, it seems like the flip reverse of what Cousins and the offense has been known to be good at.

The more I look at the offense of the Vikings, the more confused I am by what I'm seeing. I get it if Kubiak doesn't trust the OL to hold up in pass protection. I get that they want to get the ball out quickly, and I get even how that might impact the downfield and even mid-range passing game. But what I don't get is why the Vikings can't seem to find effective counters to that. I mean, 3rd-and-3- situations don't require a lot of time for routes to develop. They don't require the OL to hold up very long. They just require precise execution and a QB who is good at seeing and hitting those shorter routes, which is something Cousins might do better than just about anyone else in the league. And yet, its not happening this year.

The run game isn't getting it done in those situations either. Maybe that can be chalked up more directly to the OL and poor run blocking coupled with not having a healthy Cook in the backfield, but still, converting on 3rd-and-short is something the Vikings offense should be doing as well as any team in the NFL at this point.
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Re: Convince me that Mike Zimmer should still be the head coach of the Vikings...GO!!!

Post by StumpHunter » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:23 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:57 pm
I guess I don't disagree with what you're saying, but I also can't say I agree with it. I don't think there is strong evidence to support the claim that either Cousins or Herbert provide a statistically significant difference to the likely outcome of any particular game at this point. Substituting one over the other would be unlikely to alter the outcome by itself. We'll see how that plays out as the season progresses.
As you stated, both have been sacked the same amount of times, Cousins has been pressured on 6% more of his drop backs, or 7 total drop backs. PFF has LAC's pass blocking rank at 21, the Vikings are at 25.

Herbert's offense's YPG rushing is currently 17th, Cousins' is 15th.

Both have 2 quality WRs, with JJ and Thielen being superior to Allen and Williams in my opinion.

LAC has the slightly better offensive line, the Vikings the better WRs and RB.

Yet one of those QBs is a QB of the 2nd best offense in the NFL. The other is the QB of a bottom 10 scoring offense. Is that all the play calling? Part of it certainly could be, but it would take a lot of denial to not face the fact that part of it is also the vastly superior play from the QB. Superior play that would likely have us at worst 4-1.
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Re: Convince me that Mike Zimmer should still be the head coach of the Vikings...GO!!!

Post by VikingsVictorious » Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:40 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:57 pm
VikingsVictorious wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:54 pm

I'm not talking about long term future. I'm talking about who is more likely to get you a win any given Sunday. I think that's Cousins. Time will tell.
It's hard to talk about long term future when comparing Cousins and Herbert because one is a well established vet and the other is in his 2nd full season. We could compare the stats each put up in his first full season as a starter to get an idea of how they measure up to each other.

Cousins first full year as a starter was the 2015 season with the Redskins. His stat line was pretty good. His team finished 9-7, and he had 379 completions on 543 attempts for 4,166 yards and a 69.8 completion %. He averaged 7.7 yards per attempt with 29 TDs against 11 interceptions. He was sacked 26 times, losing 186 yards, and fumbled the ball 9 times, losing it on 3. He added 48 rushing yards on 26 attempts, scoring 5 TDs on the ground.

Herbert's first full year as a starter was the pandemic-plagued 2020 season with the Chargers. His team finished 6-9, and Herbert had 396 completions on 595 attempts for 4,336 yards and a 66.6 completion %. He averaged 7.3 yards per attempt with 31 TDs against 10 interception. He was sacked 32 times, losing 218 yards, and fumbled the ball 8 times, losing it once. He added 234 yards rushing on 55 attempts, scoring 5 TDs on the ground.

Even their stats from the first 5 games of this year so far aren't all that different. Herbert has a slightly lower completion percentage, has thrown 3 more TDs, but also one more INT. Each has been sacked 9 times, with Cousins losing 62 yards on those sacks and Herbert losing 61. If you just look at the raw stats and separate that from the team performance, its hard to argue one is demonstrably better than the other, at least in the aggregate. In terms of trend, Cousins seemed to play his best football in the first 3 games, while Herbert has come on in the last 2-3 games. That's most likely what is getting him the hype.

I guess I don't disagree with what you're saying, but I also can't say I agree with it. I don't think there is strong evidence to support the claim that either Cousins or Herbert provide a statistically significant difference to the likely outcome of any particular game at this point. Substituting one over the other would be unlikely to alter the outcome by itself. We'll see how that plays out as the season progresses.
Excellent objective analysis.
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Re: Convince me that Mike Zimmer should still be the head coach of the Vikings...GO!!!

Post by VikingsVictorious » Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:44 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:23 pm
VikingLord wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:57 pm
I guess I don't disagree with what you're saying, but I also can't say I agree with it. I don't think there is strong evidence to support the claim that either Cousins or Herbert provide a statistically significant difference to the likely outcome of any particular game at this point. Substituting one over the other would be unlikely to alter the outcome by itself. We'll see how that plays out as the season progresses.
As you stated, both have been sacked the same amount of times, Cousins has been pressured on 6% more of his drop backs, or 7 total drop backs. PFF has LAC's pass blocking rank at 21, the Vikings are at 25.

Herbert's offense's YPG rushing is currently 17th, Cousins' is 15th.

Both have 2 quality WRs, with JJ and Thielen being superior to Allen and Williams in my opinion.

LAC has the slightly better offensive line, the Vikings the better WRs and RB.

Yet one of those QBs is a QB of the 2nd best offense in the NFL. The other is the QB of a bottom 10 scoring offense. Is that all the play calling? Part of it certainly could be, but it would take a lot of denial to not face the fact that part of it is also the vastly superior play from the QB. Superior play that would likely have us at worst 4-1.
When one game is 569-568 it kind of skews the season long numbers. Cousins played well to extremely well in 4 of the five games so far. Quit trying to act like Herbert is vastly superior. You're just looking for a new way to denigrate Cousins. It's pathetic.
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Re: Convince me that Mike Zimmer should still be the head coach of the Vikings...GO!!!

Post by StumpHunter » Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:49 pm

VikingsVictorious wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:44 pm
When one game is 569-568 it kind of skews the season long numbers. Cousins played well to extremely well in 4 of the five games so far. Quit trying to act like Herbert is vastly superior. You're just looking for a new way to denigrate Cousins. It's pathetic.
Both the Vikings and the Chargers offenses are being significantly impacted by one game in this young season. Both just happen to be against the exact same team and affecting their rankings in the exact opposite manner. Turns out Cleveland's defense is only good against a rookie QB playing in his first significant snaps and Kirk Cousins.

I don't think it is pathetic to look at an offense that is 23rd and come to the conclusion that the QB must have something to do with that. It is just facing reality.
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Re: Convince me that Mike Zimmer should still be the head coach of the Vikings...GO!!!

Post by VikingsVictorious » Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:32 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:49 pm
VikingsVictorious wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:44 pm
When one game is 569-568 it kind of skews the season long numbers. Cousins played well to extremely well in 4 of the five games so far. Quit trying to act like Herbert is vastly superior. You're just looking for a new way to denigrate Cousins. It's pathetic.
Both the Vikings and the Chargers offenses are being significantly impacted by one game in this young season. Both just happen to be against the exact same team and affecting their rankings in the exact opposite manner. Turns out Cleveland's defense is only good against a rookie QB playing in his first significant snaps and Kirk Cousins.

I don't think it is pathetic to look at an offense that is 23rd and come to the conclusion that the QB must have something to do with that. It is just facing reality.
He has played very well in four out of five games this year. You're so blinded by whatever your Cousins thing is that it renders you useless when it comes to making any comment regarding him.
Let's go over some of the negative "FACTS" you have known about Kirk Cousins. He can't beat the elite QBs. Oops. He added Russell Wilson to Rodgers. He will choke in the clutch and can't do comebacks. Twice he led us to game winning FGs. Another time he led us to a game tying FG to send the game to OT IIRC. All this in the first five games of this season. Now your criticism is total offense. That sure didn't seem to matter to you much last year when Cousins finished top 6 was it. You brushed it aside as meaningless. Now it must be a negative on the QB if the team ranks 23rd. Another new criticism you've come up with. Herbert is "vastly superior" I sure hope we play them this year.
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Re: Convince me that Mike Zimmer should still be the head coach of the Vikings...GO!!!

Post by StumpHunter » Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:58 am

VikingsVictorious wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:32 pm
StumpHunter wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:49 pm

Both the Vikings and the Chargers offenses are being significantly impacted by one game in this young season. Both just happen to be against the exact same team and affecting their rankings in the exact opposite manner. Turns out Cleveland's defense is only good against a rookie QB playing in his first significant snaps and Kirk Cousins.

I don't think it is pathetic to look at an offense that is 23rd and come to the conclusion that the QB must have something to do with that. It is just facing reality.
He has played very well in four out of five games this year. You're so blinded by whatever your Cousins thing is that it renders you useless when it comes to making any comment regarding him.
Let's go over some of the negative "FACTS" you have known about Kirk Cousins. He can't beat the elite QBs. Oops. He added Russell Wilson to Rodgers. He will choke in the clutch and can't do comebacks. Twice he led us to game winning FGs. Another time he led us to a game tying FG to send the game to OT IIRC. All this in the first five games of this season. Now your criticism is total offense. That sure didn't seem to matter to you much last year when Cousins finished top 6 was it. You brushed it aside as meaningless. Now it must be a negative on the QB if the team ranks 23rd. Another new criticism you've come up with. Herbert is "vastly superior" I sure hope we play them this year.
The Vikings were 11th in scoring last year and I pointed out multiple times how that wasn't good enough, especially considering the incredibly easy schedule we had for the offense.

Look, if Cousins was so great you wouldn't need to make up these strawman arguments about how people said he can't beat the elite QBs. You wouldn't have to point to one of his few game winning drives as a Viking against the winless Lions as if that proves something.

The Vikings are 2-3, have the 23rd best scoring offense and you think the QB is playing fine in the majority of the games. Fine compared to Mills, Lawrence and QBs like that I suppose. Maybe that is what you mean?
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Re: Convince me that Mike Zimmer should still be the head coach of the Vikings...GO!!!

Post by fiestavike » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:55 am

StumpHunter wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:23 pm
VikingLord wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:57 pm
I guess I don't disagree with what you're saying, but I also can't say I agree with it. I don't think there is strong evidence to support the claim that either Cousins or Herbert provide a statistically significant difference to the likely outcome of any particular game at this point. Substituting one over the other would be unlikely to alter the outcome by itself. We'll see how that plays out as the season progresses.
As you stated, both have been sacked the same amount of times, Cousins has been pressured on 6% more of his drop backs, or 7 total drop backs. PFF has LAC's pass blocking rank at 21, the Vikings are at 25.

Herbert's offense's YPG rushing is currently 17th, Cousins' is 15th.

Both have 2 quality WRs, with JJ and Thielen being superior to Allen and Williams in my opinion.

LAC has the slightly better offensive line, the Vikings the better WRs and RB.

Yet one of those QBs is a QB of the 2nd best offense in the NFL. The other is the QB of a bottom 10 scoring offense. Is that all the play calling? Part of it certainly could be, but it would take a lot of denial to not face the fact that part of it is also the vastly superior play from the QB. Superior play that would likely have us at worst 4-1.
I wanted the Vikings to trade up for Herbert.
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Re: Convince me that Mike Zimmer should still be the head coach of the Vikings...GO!!!

Post by VikingsVictorious » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:04 am

StumpHunter wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:58 am
VikingsVictorious wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:32 pm

He has played very well in four out of five games this year. You're so blinded by whatever your Cousins thing is that it renders you useless when it comes to making any comment regarding him.
Let's go over some of the negative "FACTS" you have known about Kirk Cousins. He can't beat the elite QBs. Oops. He added Russell Wilson to Rodgers. He will choke in the clutch and can't do comebacks. Twice he led us to game winning FGs. Another time he led us to a game tying FG to send the game to OT IIRC. All this in the first five games of this season. Now your criticism is total offense. That sure didn't seem to matter to you much last year when Cousins finished top 6 was it. You brushed it aside as meaningless. Now it must be a negative on the QB if the team ranks 23rd. Another new criticism you've come up with. Herbert is "vastly superior" I sure hope we play them this year.
The Vikings were 11th in scoring last year and I pointed out multiple times how that wasn't good enough, especially considering the incredibly easy schedule we had for the offense.

Look, if Cousins was so great you wouldn't need to make up these strawman arguments about how people said he can't beat the elite QBs. You wouldn't have to point to one of his few game winning drives as a Viking against the winless Lions as if that proves something.

The Vikings are 2-3, have the 23rd best scoring offense and you think the QB is playing fine in the majority of the games. Fine compared to Mills, Lawrence and QBs like that I suppose. Maybe that is what you mean?
If you can't see that Cousins has played great this year and negated your "facts" about him you are simply blind as a bat. Using your hand picked stats/criterion for what makes a good/great QB from last year Cousins is great. What can you do/say. I know change the criterion. Stats that were meaningless last year are all important this year. Stats that were meaningless after game three this year all of a sudden matter after game 5.

Cousins was top 6 or maybe it was 4th in total offense. You brushed aside any rankings that showed Cousins in a positive light. Now your using 23rd after two low scoring games, one of which we won behind a last minute drive led by Cousins, as a knock against him. You use the stats when they're convenient to your narrative you ignore them when they aren't. How about after game three where Cousins had the 2nd best QBR in the league. I didn't notice you praising him.
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