Wish on a Falling Tua?

[VikingLord]

I am sure this has been mentioned in a thread somewhere, but I'm reading more and more reports that suggest Tua Tagovailoa could end up falling hard in this year's draft due to concerns about his injury history generally and his recent severe hip injury specifically. As I understand it, Tua also didn't do very well on the Wonderlic at the combine, and while I'm not sure how much that hurts his draft stock, it certainly doesn't help it.

What I'm reading about Tua's hip injury specifically is that it was severe enough to lead many medical experts to believe that at some point he will need the hip replaced. By "at some point", we're talking in the next 10 years.

If that is true (I'm not claiming it is, just repeating what I heard), that probably puts a pretty hard damper on a team taking Tua in the top half of this draft. If he falls past pick 15, he might fall all the way to the Vikings at #22. I'm still running through some mock draft simulators using player projections, and sure enough, in the last few I've run, Tua is still available when #22 rolls around.

This is the kind of conundrum you almost dream you have if you're a GM picking at #22 in a draft. This is how it must have been when Randy Moss somehow fell all the way to #21 when Green snapped him up. Of course, what caused Moss to fall had nothing to do with injury history or a horrifying prognosis, but the risk-reward ratio of that sort of player sitting at that position in a draft would be nearly identical IMHO.

So the question is, if the previously unthinkable happens and Tua Tagovailoa is still on the board when #22 rolls around, does Spielman snap him up? When the Vikings drafted Moss, they didn't really need another WR, but it was clearly the right move in retrospect. Ditto for when the Packers snapped up Rodgers at #24 in the 2005 draft. The Packers didn't need a QB as they had a very productive Brett Favre still behind center, but they made what in retrospect was a no-brainer move.

If the Vikings were to select Tua at #22, he could sit and learn behind Cousins for up to 2 seasons. He could fine-tune his body and his game and could take the reins when he's fully ready. And the Vikings still have the #25 pick as well to go after another player they covet.

Another option if Tua did make it to #22 would be a potentially lucrative trade back. While Tua's medical concerns might cause him to fall, with the uncertainty surrounding his injury I could see a QB-needy team drafting early in the 2nd round eager to move up to get him. Said team might be eager enough to give up a disproportionately sweet deal, providing Spielman with extra ammunition he can use to restock the team in the 2nd and 3rd rounds where a lot of very good players will still be on the board.

But I say don't look a gift horse in the mouth. If a talent like Tua is still on the board at #22 Spielman has to take him. It's risky, yes, and technically the Vikings don't need a QB, but Tua is a special talent and I think especially if he's given time to fully heal and learn behind a consummate pro like Cousins he could be a very special player.

[fiestavike]

Yep, I'm on board for that. The reward is well worth the risk.

[RandyMoss84]

I will never understand the wonderlic scores, some players have low wonderlic scores but still end up being great players...I do not want Tua and taking Tua at #22 is a reach, I will be surprised if Tua is drafted in the first round

[S197]

I would take the risk. Rick will not.

[Maelstrom88]

I wouldn't draft him based on what I know about the injury history. You need a durable QB and Kirk is definitely that despite whatever other issues people have with him. They are committed to Kirk for the next couple years anyways so I'd say just try to use resources to support and build around him.

[808vikingsfan]

I'd trade up to get him. Everyone complains that elite QBs come around only once in a blue moon. Vikings have 2 1st round picks going into the draft. If there's ever a time to take a risk and pull the trigger, it's now. Vikings can get picks back when they trade Cousins next year.

[Texas Vike]

We all know that the Vikings wouldn't have the cojones to pull the trigger. If anything, we may parlay the situation into getting more picks, which would be a smart move too. But to answer your question: I'd take him. The potentially huge reward is worth the risk.

[StumpHunter]

We all know that the Vikings wouldn't have the cojones to pull the trigger. If anything, we may parlay the situation into getting more picks, which would be a smart move too. But to answer your question: I'd take him. The potentially huge reward is worth the risk.

Heck, there is a scenario where Tua shows some durability throughout camp and preseason, flashes a bit and turns into a 1st rounder next year if Cousins has a great year.

I guess what I am saying is Tua could not play a meaningful snap for us and this still isn't a that big of a risk.

[VikingLord]

Heck, there is a scenario where Tua shows some durability throughout camp and preseason, flashes a bit and turns into a 1st rounder next year if Cousins has a great year.

I guess what I am saying is Tua could not play a meaningful snap for us and this still isn't a that big of a risk.

I look at it this way - the Vikings have effectively 2 more years with Cousins locked up on a franchise QB-level contract. In other words, they expect Cousins to have great years for the next 2 years. If they get Tua at #22, they get him on a rookie level deal that will probably run for 5 years. Especially if Tua flashes and looks durable, why ship him for a 1st next year even if Cousins lights it up? If Tua shows promise and looks like he could become a franchise QB, I'd say keep him behind Cousins and ride that situation as long as it makes sense, knowing that you've got a solid option behind Cousins in the event Cousins is injured or becomes too expensive once his current deal runs out.

If you've got a true franchise QB, you don't trade him. For anything.

[VikingLord]

I will never understand the wonderlic scores, some players have low wonderlic scores but still end up being great players...I do not want Tua and taking Tua at #22 is a reach, I will be surprised if Tua is drafted in the first round

Just curious what you are basing your opinion on as it seems to be an outlier. Did you see an evaluation or something that leads you to believe Tua is going to be a bust, or are you concerned about his injury?

[Dakotavike]

I posted my opinion about this in a previous thread and will repost here.

“If Tua slides too far (which I don’t think will happen) I think we’d probably have to trade up to get him, because if we don’t the Patriots will. If he’s somehow miraculously there at 22 I’d grab him in a heartbeat. Yeah, we have lots of needs and just signed Cousins to an extension. (I think he’s fine. Don’t love him/don’t hate him.) But an opportunity to grab a potential ‘game changing’ type franchise QB in a year when we have two first round picks is kind of a no brainer. It’s like having a free ‘swing for the fences’ type pick. And honestly, if you’re not willing to pull the trigger in this scenario then when would you?”

[StumpHunter]

Trent Dilfer said he hasn't seen a prospect as good as Tua come along in the 12 years he has worked with draft prospects and watched their film in preparation for the draft.

Essentially that means he thinks he is a more sure thing (injuries aside) than Luck.

Now, if Tua is really that good of a prospect I don't know how Miami doesn't take him, so this is probably all moot anyway.

[RandyMoss84]

I will never understand the wonderlic scores, some players have low wonderlic scores but still end up being great players...I do not want Tua and taking Tua at #22 is a reach, I will be surprised if Tua is drafted in the first round

Just curious what you are basing your opinion on as it seems to be an outlier. Did you see an evaluation or something that leads you to believe Tua is going to be a bust, or are you concerned about his injury?

I am just concerned with his injury, he might not be same player as he once was

[VikingsVictorious]

Heck, there is a scenario where Tua shows some durability throughout camp and preseason, flashes a bit and turns into a 1st rounder next year if Cousins has a great year.

I guess what I am saying is Tua could not play a meaningful snap for us and this still isn't a that big of a risk.

I look at it this way - the Vikings have effectively 2 more years with Cousins locked up on a franchise QB-level contract. In other words, they expect Cousins to have great years for the next 2 years. If they get Tua at #22, they get him on a rookie level deal that will probably run for 5 years. Especially if Tua flashes and looks durable, why ship him for a 1st next year even if Cousins lights it up? If Tua shows promise and looks like he could become a franchise QB, I'd say keep him behind Cousins and ride that situation as long as it makes sense, knowing that you've got a solid option behind Cousins in the event Cousins is injured or becomes too expensive once his current deal runs out.

If you've got a true franchise QB, you don't trade him. For anything.

So you wouldn't trade Cousins.

[StumpHunter]

I look at it this way - the Vikings have effectively 2 more years with Cousins locked up on a franchise QB-level contract. In other words, they expect Cousins to have great years for the next 2 years. If they get Tua at #22, they get him on a rookie level deal that will probably run for 5 years. Especially if Tua flashes and looks durable, why ship him for a 1st next year even if Cousins lights it up? If Tua shows promise and looks like he could become a franchise QB, I'd say keep him behind Cousins and ride that situation as long as it makes sense, knowing that you've got a solid option behind Cousins in the event Cousins is injured or becomes too expensive once his current deal runs out.

If you've got a true franchise QB, you don't trade him. For anything.

So you wouldn't trade Cousins.

Not to put words in his mouth, but if you have two franchise QBs, you trade the older, more expensive one if all other things are close to being equal.

Alex Smith had by far the best year of his career the year after Mahomes was drafted, and KC didn't hesitate to trade him.

I also question whether the Vikings are 100% sold on Cousins giving him only a 2 year extension. That doesn't typically happen to true franchise QBs either and it kind of feels like a placeholder QB contract.