WRs in Draft

[VikingsVictorious]

This is the right answer. You aren't just using draft picks to improve your QB position, you are also getting a good QB on a rookie salary, which is a huge advantage. 30 million extra in cap can go a long way to improving the team.

It’s not the right answer if you don’t think any of them are a franchise QB. We all know you want cousins gone, but drafting a QB just to draft one isn’t necessarily the right move. I mean are we really saying if we’re going to trade up it should be for a QB? I don’t understand how in any way that’s the right answer

What is a franchise QB? Was Luck a franchise QB? What does it mean?

[Pondering Her Percy]

Yeah I’ll pass.

1.) we’d have to trade within the top 10 to do that vs 10-14 for lamb or Jeudy. That means the asking price is that much more.

2.) I’ve said before we have way to many spots to fill and have a solid QB already in place. To trade up that far, give up that much just to get a guy that’s going to sit and lose other valuable draft picks just makes zero sense to me

3.) chances are, the cost of that would be both firsts, our second and probably more. So we wouldn’t be picking until let’s say the 3rd and filled zero holes. From the 3rd round on we’d have to find ways to fill CB (x2 possibly), WR, DT, DE, and OG (x2). Good luck

I've seen mocks where one or both of Herbert and Tua slide. Neither are sure things and its very possible one or both of them slip into that 10-14 range, especially Tua since teams can't confirm he is medically sound. Not saying this is likely that one or both slide, but it is possible, just as it's possible one or both of Lamb or Jeudy go in the top 10. Regardless, you're still talking about a bold move up. To get near the 10th pick is probably going to require both 1st rounders. The price to move up to #5 is more, but if you're convinced the player you get there is your franchise QB, it's really not THAT much more in the big scheme of things.

As to your 2nd point, Cousins is in place for 2 more seasons. His final year is voidable as I understand it. That is hardly a long term commitment on his or the Vikings' part at this point, and in terms of that bigger picture mentioned before, giving your franchise QB a year to sit and learn and develop while remaining competitive in the near term is sound strategy.

It seems a little odd to argue that it would take too much draft capital to move up to get your long term franchise QB on one hand and then turn around to argue that it because it would take slightly less draft capital to move up to get your long term #1 WR its OK because it will cost slightly less. The argument makes sense only when looked at from the perspective of immediate need (as in, the Vikings have their QB position locked up right now while they lack at WR with the departure of Diggs), but remember the draft after the Vikings traded Randy Moss. They went into that draft lacking a clear #1 WR due to the trade and also had an immediate need at DE. The QB position was "locked up" at the time, so no immediate need there. And they went on to draft Troy Williamson to replace Moss and Erasmus James to fill the DE need while ignoring Aaron Rodgers at QB *twice*. They didn't even have to make a trade to get him in that draft, either. They could have taken him just holding pat. We see how that worked out.

The draft is about the long-term view and adding the best possible talent to the team for that longer term. GM's who understand that thrive. GM's who see the draft as a way to plug immediate holes tend to fail unless they get really lucky.

I for one will be disappointed if the Vikings trade up to get a WR in this draft. Both lines need too much work to go after a flashy skill player in my view. As I'm not sold on a QB in this draft either, I'd personally they hold or even trade down and stock up both lines in the early rounds.

Tua and Herbert aren’t falling IMO. Too many teams in those early rounds that need QBs and I’m guessing you’ll see New England move up. Within the top 10 you have cincy, possibly Washington, Miami, LA chargers and Jacksonville that all need QBs and need them badly. Then you have the Raiders right outside of the top 10 that are rumored to possibly take one. All in all, that’s half of those top 10 teams that need QBs with only 3 QBs to go around (Burrow, Herbert and Tua).

Moving into the 10-15 range, I don’t think it would cost us both first round picks. I think we could do it with 22, 58 and like a 3rd next year. We can then come back at 25 and trade back and gain picks back. The main question is will it take both first, I don’t believe it will. To move up 8 picks, it shouldn’t. However to move up into the top 10, it will cost both. Keeping #25 is key IMO.

What I have been doing in my mocks recently is trading up with Tampa for Lamb or Jeudy and then trading back from 25 to the late first. I’ve been getting a late 3rd in return for the trade back. Let’s say at worst we get a 4th and change back.

So if that’s how it actually went down we would have:

Pick #14 via Tampa
Pick #25
No 2nd
3rd- #89, #105 (could maybe squeeze a late 3rd in the trade back but let’s figure low and say 4th)
4th- #132 and let’s say #138
No 3rd next year

So essentially we’re turning our 2nd that we lost in the trade up into a late 3rd or 4th that we gained via the trade down from 25.

If we traded up into the top 10 to select a QB:

A pick in the top 10 for a QB
Not another pick until the 2nd, maybe the 3rd.

Trading up to get lamb or Jeudy doesn’t set us back nearly as much as you’re making it out to be and we’d still have plenty of picks to build up our OL. And to add onto that, the only guard going anywhere near the first is Wirfs, outside of that there will be a plethora of them from the 3rd-5th round.


Just to put some of these trades into perspective:

In regards to the trade up I’m proposing for lamb or Jeudy....

Last year Pitt moved up from pick 20 to pick 10 to draft devin bush. What it cost them? 1st round pick, 2nd round pick, 3rd in 2020 It’s the same thing I’m proposing here when it comes to lamb or Jeudy. That’s going to be the rough cost. Pick went up 10 spots, we’d be going up 8 so if anything, it would cost us less.


Another trade from last year:

In regards to my trade down from 25 into the late first.....

the Seahawks traded down from 30 to 21 with the packers. What the Seahawks got in return? 1st round pick and TWO fourth round picks for moving down 9 spots.

Another:

The ravens traded down from 22 to 25 with the eagles. What the ravens got in return: 1st round pick, 4th round pick, 6th round pick all for moving down THREE spots.

In the end my point is, yeah we lose a 2nd by trading up for a top flight WR, but gain some ground back by trading down from 25. And this also proves that we will not have to give up both our first round picks for a trade up. Now when you’re looking at moving up quite a ways for a QB.... KC traded up 17 picks for mahomes. They gave up their first that year, their first the following year and a 3rd that year. If we were trading up from 22 to let’s say #7. That’s 15 spots AND it’s for a higher pick than KC was trading for. Point is, it’s going to cost us both firsts and more. And we accomplish what by doing that? It’s hard to make up for that by trading down because where are you going to trade down and get a good haul? Both firsts are now gone. So a trade like that you can’t even make up for it, with the trade for lamb or Jeudy you can definitely get some back in return.

And to add on, the trade I’m proposing fills an immediate need with an excellent player and we have to give up less and gain some back

Whereas the trade up for a QB doesn’t fill an immediate need, costs way more, and is hard to get any return back in a later trade down

And yeah I’m aware Mahomes won a SB. That’s not my point, not where I’m going with this so don’t even bother. I was simply looking for a similar trade up to what VL is proposing.

[J. Kapp 11]

Brady, Big Ben, Wilson* and Rodgers*. Philly won it with their QB on his rookie contract.

The real question should be how many QBs have won it with their QBs making as much of the cap as Cousins will make on average over his career as a Viking. The answer to that is a big fat 0.

*Haven't won it since.

Rodgers won the super bowl during his Rookie Contract? Doesn't seem right, but I'll trust you. Wentz wasn't even playing when Philly won the super bowl. Absolutely doesn't count. How many QBs won the super bowl while being among the top ten paid in the game. I bet the answer is many. Cousins will be no higher paid than 10th pretty soon.

It’s not.

Rodgers was drafted in 2005 and won the SB in 2010, his 6th year. He sat for three full seasons behind Brett Favre.

[VikingLord]

Trading up to get lamb or Jeudy doesn’t set us back nearly as much as you’re making it out to be and we’d still have plenty of picks to build up our OL. And to add onto that, the only guard going anywhere near the first is Wirfs, outside of that there will be a plethora of them from the 3rd-5th round.

You're probably right that it wouldn't take both 1st rounders to move up to #14.

But that also assumes Lamb/Jeudy is available at that spot. If either or both are so good, doesn't it stand to reason they'll go off the board earlier than that? I mean, if they are bonafide studs as so many seem to believe, absent some big question mark, why would either slide? And if they don't slide, how high would you be willing to go to get one of them? What if it required a move into the top 10 and both first rounders?

I see this year's WR class much like I see this year's CB class. It's a flat class with a lot of players who could become very good pros, but who also could underwhelm for a variety of reasons. While Jeudy and Lamb are a notch above their peers, I don't think either is a clear can't-miss prospect at WR and I wouldn't trade up for either of them.

The assumption seems to be that the Vikings need to get Cousins a new target at WR. I think the Vikings need to get Cousins better protection up front and more consistent run blocking to take the pressure off him. That will do more to improve Cousins chances of outperforming in my view than a flashy WR.

[RandyMoss84]

Trading up to get lamb or Jeudy doesn’t set us back nearly as much as you’re making it out to be and we’d still have plenty of picks to build up our OL. And to add onto that, the only guard going anywhere near the first is Wirfs, outside of that there will be a plethora of them from the 3rd-5th round.

You're probably right that it wouldn't take both 1st rounders to move up to #14.

But that also assumes Lamb/Jeudy is available at that spot. If either or both are so good, doesn't it stand to reason they'll go off the board earlier than that? I mean, if they are bonafide studs as so many seem to believe, absent some big question mark, why would either slide? And if they don't slide, how high would you be willing to go to get one of them? What if it required a move into the top 10 and both first rounders?

I see this year's WR class much like I see this year's CB class. It's a flat class with a lot of players who could become very good pros, but who also could underwhelm for a variety of reasons. While Jeudy and Lamb are a notch above their peers, I don't think either is a clear can't-miss prospect at WR and I wouldn't trade up for either of them.

The assumption seems to be that the Vikings need to get Cousins a new target at WR. I think the Vikings need to get Cousins better protection up front and more consistent run blocking to take the pressure off him. That will do more to improve Cousins chances of outperforming in my view than a flashy WR.

I love Lamb but I do agree with this, wide receiver is very deep so Vikings can find a wide receiver in the later rounds, Vikings should draft offensive line and cornerback with their two 1st round picks

[VikingLord]

What is a franchise QB? Was Luck a franchise QB? What does it mean?

The existential question of our time...

The way I see it, there are two types of "franchise" QB.

The first is the QB who comes out of college heavily hyped, gets all the teams lathered up during the work up to the draft, and has teams falling over themselves to try to move up and draft him. Each draft produces someone who seems to become the consensus #1 QB, and in what seems like most drafts, that guy ends up as also the consensus #1 pick. This year it appears Joe Burrow is going to be that guy. In the past, guys like Sam Bradford were it. This type of QB is the speculative "franchise" player. I suppose it's not a requirement that this type of QB is the #1 pick. He can be a higher pick or a guy some team moves up aggressively to get. But the common thread with this type of QB is that some team is convinced he's the long-term answer at the position before he's played a down as a pro and they're willing to put their money where their mouth is.

The second is the QB who is drafted later, who has some warts or question marks coming out of college, but who also has notable strengths and develops into a reliable and effective starter who consistently takes his teams deep into the playoffs. Sometimes that happens quickly, and sometimes it takes a while. Sometimes these guys are even traded by the team that drafted them. Examples are Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. By definition, these guys are harder to detect in college. They don't jump off the tape or produce the same level of pre-draft hype as the first type of QB. It might be because they played for a smaller school or on a worse team or don't tick all the physical boxes that scouts think mean something in the pros. Sometimes they languish on a team with an established starter at the time they're drafted. Whatever it is that holds them back, once they get their chance they adapt and shine and the team that is lucky enough to have them never lets them walk while they're in their prime.

The first type of QB is speculative, while the second type is developmental. The first type carries more risk and probably is more prone to failure although I don't have data to back that up. The second type is less risky because less is invested to obtain him, but I think the result is also more an element of luck than the first type. I mean, nobody can tell me the Patriots didn't luck out getting Brady in the 5th round, or the Seahawks didn't luck out with Wilson in the 2nd.

A franchise QB is a guy you either hope, or actually can, build your offense and extended team around, and with whom you can reasonably expect to be competitive each year because you have him at QB.

[VikingsVictorious]

Rodgers won the super bowl during his Rookie Contract? Doesn't seem right, but I'll trust you. Wentz wasn't even playing when Philly won the super bowl. Absolutely doesn't count. How many QBs won the super bowl while being among the top ten paid in the game. I bet the answer is many. Cousins will be no higher paid than 10th pretty soon.

It’s not.

Rodgers was drafted in 2005 and won the SB in 2010, his 6th year. He sat for three full seasons behind Brett Favre.

Thanks Kapp. Now I know I can't trust the stats thrown at me by stump. Stump J/K. We all make mistakes sometimes.

[Pondering Her Percy]

It’s not the right answer if you don’t think any of them are a franchise QB. We all know you want cousins gone, but drafting a QB just to draft one isn’t necessarily the right move. I mean are we really saying if we’re going to trade up it should be for a QB? I don’t understand how in any way that’s the right answer

What is a franchise QB? Was Luck a franchise QB? What does it mean?

I mean it’s a crap shoot. But if you don’t truly believe in a QB in this draft like KC believed in Mahomes, why trade up for one? Some will disagree but I see zero question marks in regards to Jeudy or Lamb. Herbert and Tua definitely have theirs. This is arguably the best WR class ever. To land the top one in the class, is an excellent pick if you ask me.

[Pondering Her Percy]

You're probably right that it wouldn't take both 1st rounders to move up to #14.

But that also assumes Lamb/Jeudy is available at that spot. If either or both are so good, doesn't it stand to reason they'll go off the board earlier than that? I mean, if they are bonafide studs as so many seem to believe, absent some big question mark, why would either slide? And if they don't slide, how high would you be willing to go to get one of them? What if it required a move into the top 10 and both first rounders?

I see this year's WR class much like I see this year's CB class. It's a flat class with a lot of players who could become very good pros, but who also could underwhelm for a variety of reasons. While Jeudy and Lamb are a notch above their peers, I don't think either is a clear can't-miss prospect at WR and I wouldn't trade up for either of them.

The assumption seems to be that the Vikings need to get Cousins a new target at WR. I think the Vikings need to get Cousins better protection up front and more consistent run blocking to take the pressure off him. That will do more to improve Cousins chances of outperforming in my view than a flashy WR.

I love Lamb but I do agree with this, wide receiver is very deep so Vikings can find a wide receiver in the later rounds, Vikings should draft offensive line and cornerback with their two 1st round picks

Again this all depends. The only OL I would be drafting in round one is a left tackle. If we trade for Williams, drafting OL here doesn’t make any sense unless wirfs fell for some reason which he won’t. There are no other first round guards. So if we trade for Williams the tackle spots are locked down. We can then go fish for guards in the middle rounds. Wirfs is the only first round worthy guard. No other guard is even close.

[VikingsVictorious]

Trading up to get lamb or Jeudy doesn’t set us back nearly as much as you’re making it out to be and we’d still have plenty of picks to build up our OL. And to add onto that, the only guard going anywhere near the first is Wirfs, outside of that there will be a plethora of them from the 3rd-5th round.

You're probably right that it wouldn't take both 1st rounders to move up to #14.

But that also assumes Lamb/Jeudy is available at that spot. If either or both are so good, doesn't it stand to reason they'll go off the board earlier than that? I mean, if they are bonafide studs as so many seem to believe, absent some big question mark, why would either slide? And if they don't slide, how high would you be willing to go to get one of them? What if it required a move into the top 10 and both first rounders?

I see this year's WR class much like I see this year's CB class. It's a flat class with a lot of players who could become very good pros, but who also could underwhelm for a variety of reasons. While Jeudy and Lamb are a notch above their peers, I don't think either is a clear can't-miss prospect at WR and I wouldn't trade up for either of them.

The assumption seems to be that the Vikings need to get Cousins a new target at WR. I think the Vikings need to get Cousins better protection up front and more consistent run blocking to take the pressure off him. That will do more to improve Cousins chances of outperforming in my view than a flashy WR.

I mostly agree with you VL. However if Lamb is Hopkins II and we can get him for 25 and 58 it can still be worth it. Than at 22 we can hopefully get a good OT or possibly trade back for an early second and early third. If no trade back we got our OT. If we trade back we can get somebody like Ruiz or Cleveland early 2nd and pick up CB, another OL and a DT or second WR in the third. That is my scenario for how trading up for Hopkins II can work out.

[VikingsVictorious]

What is a franchise QB? Was Luck a franchise QB? What does it mean?

The existential question of our time...

The way I see it, there are two types of "franchise" QB.

The first is the QB who comes out of college heavily hyped, gets all the teams lathered up during the work up to the draft, and has teams falling over themselves to try to move up and draft him. Each draft produces someone who seems to become the consensus #1 QB, and in what seems like most drafts, that guy ends up as also the consensus #1 pick. This year it appears Joe Burrow is going to be that guy. In the past, guys like Sam Bradford were it. This type of QB is the speculative "franchise" player. I suppose it's not a requirement that this type of QB is the #1 pick. He can be a higher pick or a guy some team moves up aggressively to get. But the common thread with this type of QB is that some team is convinced he's the long-term answer at the position before he's played a down as a pro and they're willing to put their money where their mouth is.

The second is the QB who is drafted later, who has some warts or question marks coming out of college, but who also has notable strengths and develops into a reliable and effective starter who consistently takes his teams deep into the playoffs. Sometimes that happens quickly, and sometimes it takes a while. Sometimes these guys are even traded by the team that drafted them. Examples are Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. By definition, these guys are harder to detect in college. They don't jump off the tape or produce the same level of pre-draft hype as the first type of QB. It might be because they played for a smaller school or on a worse team or don't tick all the physical boxes that scouts think mean something in the pros. Sometimes they languish on a team with an established starter at the time they're drafted. Whatever it is that holds them back, once they get their chance they adapt and shine and the team that is lucky enough to have them never lets them walk while they're in their prime.

The first type of QB is speculative, while the second type is developmental. The first type carries more risk and probably is more prone to failure although I don't have data to back that up. The second type is less risky because less is invested to obtain him, but I think the result is also more an element of luck than the first type. I mean, nobody can tell me the Patriots didn't luck out getting Brady in the 5th round, or the Seahawks didn't luck out with Wilson in the 2nd.

A franchise QB is a guy you either hope, or actually can, build your offense and extended team around, and with whom you can reasonably expect to be competitive each year because you have him at QB.

That sounds like Cousins to me.

[VikingsVictorious]

What is a franchise QB? Was Luck a franchise QB? What does it mean?

I mean it’s a crap shoot. But if you don’t truly believe in a QB in this draft like KC believed in Mahomes, why trade up for one? Some will disagree but I see zero question marks in regards to Jeudy or Lamb. Herbert and Tua definitely have theirs. This is arguably the best WR class ever. To land the top one in the class, is an excellent pick if you ask me.

This being the best WR class ever if it is does not make Lamb or Jeudy the best WR prospect ever. They are not Megatron. However, I think they are both quite good. I have far more faith in them than Herbert. As for Tua if we knew he was truly Healthy he is IMO the first type of Franchise QB that VL posted about and I will expect excellence out of him.

[VikingsVictorious]

I love Lamb but I do agree with this, wide receiver is very deep so Vikings can find a wide receiver in the later rounds, Vikings should draft offensive line and cornerback with their two 1st round picks

Again this all depends. The only OL I would be drafting in round one is a left tackle. If we trade for Williams, drafting OL here doesn’t make any sense unless wirfs fell for some reason which he won’t. There are no other first round guards. So if we trade for Williams the tackle spots are locked down. We can then go fish for guards in the middle rounds. Wirfs is the only first round worthy guard. No other guard is even close.

Are you definitely counting Wirfs as a guard. If so he may be a modern day Randall McDaniel only bigger. I could see him having a hall of fame career.

[PacificNorseWest]

From what I've read, I think the most likely WRs the Vikings draft in round 1 would be Justin Jefferson or Laviska Shenault for the reasons Daniel Jeremiah mentions in his analysis of the two, specifically with these sentences...

Justin Jefferson:

He lines up in the slot and out wide. He is an outstanding route runner.

Thielen, Irv and Bisi to a lesser extent are all versatile. As was Diggs, so replacing Diggs with someone that can line up anywhere as well as run polished routes is a guy who can contribute day 1 and fit right in, allowing Kubiak to keep the same flow of the offense. Plug-and-play, essentially.

On Laviska:

Shenault isn't a nuanced route runner, but he is a monster with the ball in his hands. He excels on quick hitters, fly sweeps and vertical routes.

...he can have an immediate impact for a creative offensive coordinator. He's too big, strong and fast to not contribute.

I am more familiar with Laviska, being that I'm in pac-12 territory and I believe he can have a Percy-like impact and provide another dangerous weapon to the offense who can line up anywhere on the field.

These 2 can be impact guys right away without having to trade draft capital to potentially move up for guys like Lamb or Juedy. I'd be less worried about Jefferson and though I really like Shenault, there's always a chance he's more like Cordarrelle Patterson than Percy. Potential is there though and Minnesota needs someone who can come out of the gates and produce.

Link:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... ankings-40

[cmoss84]

Good conversation, so thanks everyone.
Just wanted to put my two cents on a few things:
1) The top 3 QBs will go top 10. None of them are worth the risk for how much they will cost.
2) why not let teams draft QBs and WRs early on, and let BPA take over? We are in a perfect spot for a premium DT, OL, edge rusher, or CB to fall to us. I wouldn't trade up with our situation. Take advantage of value at 22 and 25.
3) think about how many good WRs will be available from round 3 on. Is there much difference between them? Crapshoot big time.

*anyone interested in Thaddeus Moss if he falls to round 3? He is an excellent run blocker and could be groomed in to take over for Rudolph. He and Irv might be nice together and take pressure off of our WRs.