How to Beat the Packers

[VikingLord]

Interesting, but Vegas is pretty much begging people to bet on Green Bay. The Vikings are a 5.5-point favorite.

Hope Vegas is right.

I noticed that too. I'm surprised it's not more like 2.5 or 3.5, but I have to admit that I'm not versed in Vegas' odds. Monday can't get here soon enough!

It's a numbers game driven by analytics and statistics. Home teams are usually spotted 3 points by virtue of being at home, but then the season-long stats for both teams are compared and put through whatever magic machine the house uses in Vegas to come up with a final spread. Whatever created the spread, its a safe bet (no pun intended) that hard data backs it up.

Of course, the game has a different "feel" to it. It's like one of those optical illusions where you look at two lines of the same length and can swear one looks longer than the other, or two circles that are the same color but one looks lighter than the other. That's what this upcoming game feels like against the Packers. The Packers are 11-3 and won the first matchup. They lead the NFC North. They have Aaron Rodgers at QB and all his pedigree suggests. They're the Green Bay Packers and all that pedigree suggests.

But if you peel back the facade and look at the numbers and stats, look at the wins and losses and the nature of both for both teams, you see a different picture and the Vegas odds reflect that picture accurately because they strip away the illusions that tend to mislead and misdirect people.

I guess we'll see what happens tonight, but if these two teams play to their potential, the Vikings almost certainly win.

[CharVike]

I thought this was pretty good, from an article that includes how the packers plan to stop Kirk and make him uncomfortable

"Affect him," Packers OLB Za'Darius Smith told me Thursday, "as far as getting him out the pocket, moving him around, getting pressure, getting hits. If he can't see his first read, hopefully we can get there as pass rushers."

It's like they are trying to do the same thing as us. Get Kirk moving and out of the pocket since that is where he is at his best (after a play action roll out)

This is nothing new. Heavy heat effects all QBs. That's what the 46 Bear defense was all about. Pressure. The Giants beat Brady twice in the Super Bowl by bringing heat. I've seen Rodgers look like crap when he gets tremendous pressure. Kirk will look like crap also if they bring pressure. Just watch the early Bear game. Heat made him look like crap. If the Bears do that again he'll look like crap again. Still the same QB. He's not a bum either. I expect the Packers to get after Cousins. No Cook which hurts us. They will let us run the ball. The key is will we stick with it. We didn't the 1st game and lost. We did except in crunch time when we went with the pass. In other words we didn't stick to what was working.