StumpHunter wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:35 pm
mansquatch wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:16 pm
the short passing of late has been in response to playing teams with strong pass rushers. That and our OL/RB are probably NFL best in the screen game. This is a great example of how much better Stefanski / Kubiak has been at game planning vs. the JDF disaster. Coaching matters...
I don't think so. If that were the case, you would see a dramatic decrease in time to throw, and we haven't outside of the Denver game. With the Denver game, Cousins averaged more air yards per completion than any of the past 4 games. Which is weird because they have the best pass rush we have faced, and got to Cousins more than any team since Chicago.
Plus, Seattle is actually really bad at rushing the passer this season, yet we only had 2 passes completed over 10 yards.
It is almost like the play calling gets way more conservative when we play big games. Like they are afraid of a repeat of GB and Chicago.
I don't know what plays are being called or whether on most passing plays Cousins has a deep option. It could be that the playcalling itself is more conservative in big games, or it could be that Cousins is willing to take fewer chances in big games. Heck, it could be that in bigger games or in pressure situations, Cousins is simply not patient and not seeing the field. That could be a result of his route progressions as well. An recent example is the 4th down play late against the Seahawks. Cousins locked onto Irv Smith and attempted to force that pass as Smith came out of his break almost regardless of the fact he was covered when had he waited just a click more he might have spotted Mattison wide open at the marker.
This isn't intended to be a criticism of Cousins who I think has played well overall. It's just more an observation that without knowing what the receivers are doing on each play and how open (or not) they might be, it's much harder to say the overall offense is designed to be conservative. It could be that Cousins is just reading the defense and going with the option he feels is the safest play, and perhaps the more than he feels is on the line, the more inclined he is to play it safe. There isn't anything wrong with that necessarily if the safer option works, and all things being equal, that is smart football. I don't know how far the offense can get using that approach in the playoffs, though.
One other telling thing I noticed was on the deep TD to Treadwell in the Seahawks game was when the safety released Treadwell and jumped the shorter route. I know defensive coordinators and defensive backs study the tendencies of their opponents, and that single play told me volumes about what they see when they watch Cousins and the Vikings offense. Safeties are there to be the last line of defense against the big play, and with few exceptions you almost never see them choose to jump a shorter route over a deeper route. I don't know how good that safety is overall. He might just be incompetent and a freelancer who gets away with guessing, but on that play, he seemed very confident that Cousins would not see the deeper option and would try to complete the shorter one.
IIRC, there were a few examples of that in the earlier game against the Bears, too, but in that game Cousins didn't see the deeper route.
So yeah, it does seem like there is some evidence to suggest that defenses expect the shorter throws and are even willing to gamble that the ball won't go deep even if the route is open if Cousins is under some pressure. Cousins can clearly throw the deep ball, so this tendency might be a situational thing or something a defense feels it can cause to happen if it brings pressure or something.
Hopefully, the Vikings will open it up downfield some more, and not just when they're forced to do it by the situation, but to dictate the pace and also to keep the defense honest. The run game in particular has slowed a lot as of late, and I can't help but think that the more conservative play and shorter passes are allowing the DBs to creep up and help shut the run down. This upcoming game on Sunday might be a good time to remind the Vikings remaining opponents that if they do that, the Vikings can make them pay.