The Teddy Bridgewater Thread

[Mothman]

I understand the criticism and he makes some legitimate points but he lost me here:
Come on, Reusse. Teddy is doing the exact same thing Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers is doing in that situation. We can argue/compare his receiving options to those QBs and his ability to "pull the trigger." That's fair. Are they more or less "open" when he does roll to his right and throw it away? Is he throwing it away "sooner" than them? Those things. But to state that he "just wants to get rid of it and avoid the sack" is simply untrue.

I don't think it's that black and white. I thought Reusse made a good point there.

Based on what I've seen, Bridgewater does look to throw it away too easily. He's pretty risk-averse and I've seen him throw the ball away quite a few times when he could have thrown to a receiver. I think it may reflect a difference in experience and confidence between TB and the QBs Reusse listed. It may also be what he's coached to do but he does throw it away a lot and I'd argue that he also does it more than necessary.

The flip side to that argument is, of course, that the Vikings won 11 games this season and it's better for TB to err on the side of caution because it avoids turnovers and the Vikes defense is solid. Better to punt than turn it over along with all the momentum that accompanies an INT.

[Mothman]

Reusse aside. I agree, he played like balls and it looked like the first really time that GUMP cracked. It was concerning. To me though, at this point you need to stop trying to force things and go with what works. Teddy throws better out of shotgun? He should be in shotgun for all plays Peterson isn't on the field. Teddy is struggling with the long ball but doing relatively well with rhythm intermediate? Do that. Sell out to what works for him and if he still fails. Then address that. The playoffs should never ever be used as a "teachable" moment. Teddy has things he does well. Use them to the utmost.

The problem with that is what he does well is pretty limited. I think the idea that he's markedly better from the shotgun is basically a myth at this point but setting that aside, what he does well is throw short passes to open receivers, especially when blitzed.

From what I've seen, that's about it, at least in terms of what he can do consistently well.

Seriously, everybody wants Norv to let Teddy play "his game" but what is his game? If he can't complete that short stuff to receivers who break tackles and/or turn quick throws into big gains, there's not much left. There are other throws he can make and we've seen him make them at times but not with much consistency. If a defense can get pressure without blitzing, cover the short stuff and tackle well (as the Packers did in both meetings with the Vikes this year) what's the alternative for Norv? If that short stuff isn't getting it done, how does he get the defense out it? How does he get them to back off the short passes and the running game?

[dead_poet]

Based on what I've seen, Bridgewater does look to throw it away too easily. He's pretty risk-averse and I've seen him throw the ball away quite a few times when he could have thrown to a receiver. I think it may reflect a difference in experience and confidence between TB and the QBs Reusse listed. It may also be what he's coached to do but he does throw it away a lot and I'd argue that he also does it more than necessary..

There's a fine line between "risk-averse" and "stupid." Also, when Rodgers rolls right then throws across his body 30 yards to his left and his (covered) receiver somehow comes down with the ball near the sidelines it's looked on like a "great play." If Teddy does that (even if it's complete) and it's "irresponsible."

I still need to see examples of the QBs he listed rolling right and making a play and seeing the separation of the receiver at the time of the throw compared to similar situations with Teddy. Otherwise it's a lot of speculation and assumptions. For example, on multiple occasions I've seen Teddy scramble and Wallace doesn't do much in the way of trying to get open/working his way back to Teddy to try and become a viable target. That helps nobody. Other times receivers simply are covered (sometimes by more than one defender). If there was an All-22 of all of Teddy's scrambles/throw aways I'd love to look at it. The plays I remember most are those that were replayed during games were announcers (rightfully) point out that nobody was open. I'm sure that didn't happen every time.

[J. Kapp 11]

I think it was weird that the first two passes were called to McKinnon and Pruit. They were clearly good calls (since they had separation), but in a season where Teddy struggled to complete long passes to his WRs (where there is some chemistry), the people running those routes were curious. How many times do you think they practice deep balls to McKinnon? When he finally threw to a WR (Wright) on the first drive, he put the ball in the perfect place but Wright couldn't bring it in (Collinsworth claimed it was a perfect pass and Wright ran the route wrong).

Teddy should have still connected with McKinnon on that play, but Norv made a difficult completion even more difficult with the personnel out there. Granted, if Diggs was running that route, maybe he wouldn't have been as wide open because the defense would have put different DBs on him.

The throw to McKinnon was an easy throw that any NFL quarterback should be able to complete, no matter who is running the route. It was an inside-shoulder throw, which is a lot easier than an a throw between the receiver and the sideline. McKinnon had two steps on his man and is fast as heck. All Teddy had to do was put it up with some air under it.

I continue to contend that Teddy's problems are mechanical. The throw to McKinnon was a prime example. Intellectually, Teddy played it beautifully. He made exactly the right read. But he didn't angle his shoulders upward and drive the ball. He flipped it out there with a low elbow, like he usually does, and that hurts his distance control. Chris Collinsworth has mentioned his faulty mechanics two weeks in a row now, and according to Collinsworth, Teddy actually ACKNOWLEDGES that he has a flippy throwing motion. I mean, if Teddy KNOWS his throwing motion is suspect, why isn't he working his butt off to correct it?

There is no doubt Teddy CAN throw the ball correctly. His 56-yard TD pass to Charles Johnson against the Jets last year is a perfect example. Interestingly enough, it's almost the same throw as he needed to make to McKinnon ... inside shoulder, down the right sideline.

Take a look.

Here Teddy sets his feet, angles his shoulders, and drives. The ball is thrown perfectly.

Teddy has lazy mechanics, and it hurts him. You don't get many chances like the McKinnon throw in an NFL game. I'd go so far as to say that if Teddy had made a good throw to McKinnon, we wouldn't be talking about how bad a game he had.

[dead_poet]

The problem with that is what he does well is pretty limited. I think the idea that he's markedly better from the shotgun is basically a myth at this point

This was in another thread but I'll post it here:



http://vikingsterritory.com/2016/analys ... s-overload

For his career he has a 67.9 QBR under center and 98.8 out of shotgun. He improved his under center from 38.8 (2014) to 91.5. 2014 was a small sample size (100 attempts) but would you not consider that a pretty significant improvement?

what he does well is throw short passes to open receivers, especially when blitzed. From what I've seen, that's about it, at least in terms of what he can do consistently well.

I would say his pocket presence is generally pretty good (especially for a second-year guy) and his mobility/elusiveness after being pressured is pretty good. He's also pretty consistently good on short and intermediate throws (11-20 & 21-30).

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... passing-2/

He's also consistently good in the month of December (see VT link above).

Seriously, everybody wants Norv to let Teddy play "his game" but what is his game? If he can't complete that short stuff to receivers who break tackles and/or turn quick throws into big gains, there's not much left. There are other throws he can make and we've seen him make them at times but not with much consistency.

Consistency is definitely an issue. It's also difficult to come by when he's only throwing the ball 20 times/game and getting pressured on 8-10 of those per game, often immediately. But he does need to be consistently better regardless. We've seen what he can do. And what he can do is be pretty good/accurate. Often when he has time (funny how that works).

If a defense can get pressure without blitzing, cover the short stuff and tackle well (as the Packers did in both meetings with the Vikes this year) what's the alternative for Norv? If that short stuff isn't getting it done, how does he get the defense out it? How does he get them to back off the short passes and the running game?

The alternative is certainly not dialing up more 5 & 7-step drops. If a defense can do all of those things well I don't know what any coordinator can do, not just Norv. That sounds like a good recipe to beat any team.

[TSonn]

I think the idea that he's markedly better from the shotgun is basically a myth at this point

The interesting thing about this is that we won't know until AD isn't on the team anymore (or AD starts being more effective from the shotgun). I don't know where to find the numbers but I would take a guess that we throw on a large percentage of our shotgun snaps. We become extremely predictable (based on the eye test and me yelling out the play on the TV before the snap) out of the shotgun especially when McKinnon or Asiata are in the backfield with Teddy. I think this predictability coupled with the stats that Teddy performs better out of the shotgun (despite its predictability) shows that Teddy is clearly better out of the shotgun.

Teddy prefers the shotgun and AD prefers to be 7-8 yards behind the line on the snap. Someone had to budge. Teddy improved more under center than AD did out of the shotgun. I think this year has been extremely valuable to Teddy in that sense, but I hope to see us move more towards featuring the shotgun for both passing and running in the future.

[Mothman]

For his career he has a 67.9 QBR under center and 98.8 out of shotgun. He improved his under center from 38.8 (2014) to 91.5. 2014 was a small sample size (100 attempts) but would you not consider that a pretty significant improvement?

Yes, and it reinforces my point.

I would say his pocket presence is generally pretty good (especially for a second-year guy) and his mobility/elusiveness after being pressured is pretty good. He's also pretty consistently good on short and intermediate throws (11-20 & 21-30).

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... passing-2/

He's also consistently good in the month of December (see VT link above).

Sure, if we view his stats as a whole and ignore the bad performances.

I appreciate the info and research but I was discussing playcalling and game-planning, not saying the only thing he does well at all is throw short passes. That's clearly not true. If there's a way for Norv to call plays that emphasize good pocket presence, elusiveness after being pressured and playing well in December, by all means, those plays should be incorporated into the game plan.

Consistency is definitely an issue. It's also difficult to come by when he's only throwing the ball 20 times/game and getting pressured on 8-10 of those per game, often immediately. But he does need to be consistently better regardless. We've seen what he can do. And what he can do is be pretty good/accurate. Often when he has time (funny how that works).

He averages more than 20 throws a game and of course he's better when he has time. That's true for every QB. It's also true that they all get pressured. However, it's used an excuse for Bridgewater too often and I'm not talking about the plays where he's pressured immediately.

The alternative is certainly not dialing up more 5 & 7-step drops. If a defense can do all of those things well I don't know what any coordinator can do, not just Norv. That sounds like a good recipe to beat any team.

Not to me. Dare a team like Pittsburgh to go over the top of a defense that's cheating up like that and they'd probably put 40 points on the board.

[mondry]

Teddy's the "throw away" king because the line gives up so much pressure and the routes take FOREVER to develop. That leaves him in no position to throw 30 yards down the field into coverage while scrambling with 300 pound men baring down on him as he gets to the sideline.

Other times we are in max protect and there's only 2 receiving options out there anyway and if they're covered that's pretty much that. Most of the film I've seen, the throw away is the right move taking risk / reward into account.

The shotgun numbers have regressed since last year but it's not apples to apples anymore since we primarily use under center formations except in OBVIOUS passing situations. So yes on 3rd and 12 he will be in the shotgun but it's not like that's an IDEAL time to be passing. Last year we were passing from the gun on 1st and 10 or 2nd and 6 and so on, now if we aren't running it on first or second down, we're passing from under center a vast majority of the time. That's just the way it is catering to Peterson.

[dead_poet]

Yes, and it reinforces my point.

I'm afraid I don't follow.

Sure, if he you view his stats as a whole and ignore the bad performances.

Oh. My bad. I thought it was OK to view his stats as a whole, which would include the bad performances. Maybe we should just focus on the bad ones as whole representative of Teddy.

I appreciate the info but I was discussing playcalling and game-planning, not saying the only things he does well at all is throw short passes. If there's a way for Norv to call plays that emphasize good pocket presence, elusiveness after being pressured and playing well in December, by all means, those plays should be incorporated into the game plan.

He's also good at intermediate passes. I mentioned that. I don't know what to tell you, Jim. Teddy has shown he can be effective with short/intermediate pass-specific game plans and he does more well than hit short-route wide-open receivers when he's being blitzed. This team is not built to stretch the field vertically, at least not consistently. It just isn't. Implementing a more vertically-oriented game plan would be the dumbest thing for Norv to do, especially against Seattle's front seven that's head-and-shoulders above this iteration of the Vikings' offensive line. I'm all for taking shots down the field but I personally think that needs to be kept to a minimum to protect the line (and Teddy) and the offense as a whole.

He averages more than 20 throws a game and of course he's better when he has time. that's true for every QB. It's also true that they all get pressured. However, it's used an excuse for Bridgewater too often

He's the most pressured quarterback in the league. It gets talked about often because no other quarterback is pressured more than he is. Call it an excuse if you want but it's a legitimate problem that significantly affects Teddy and the offense as a whole.

Not to me. Dare a team like Pittsburgh to go over the top of a defense that's constantly cheating up like that and they'd probably put 40 points on the board.

Put Ben behind this line and take away Antonio Brown and maybe Bryant and then we'd see.

I assume you believe Cutler is a better quarterback than Teddy, yes? In 2010 Cutler was one of the most pressured quarterbacks in the league. His stats that year were: 261/432; 60.4%; 3,274 yards; 7.58 YPA; 23 TDs; 16 INTs; 86.3 QBR; 218 yards/game

That was Cutler's fifth year in the league.

Flacco might be a better comparison. That same year (his third in the league) he posted numbers of:

306/489; 62.6%; 3,622 yards; 7.41 YPA; 25 TDs; 10 INTs; 93.6 QBR; 226 passing yards/game

He was the second most pressured quarterback that year.

I'm not absolving Teddy but let's not simply dismiss excess pressure as an excuse for under-performance.

[Mothman]

I'm afraid I don't follow.

Sorry, maybe I didn't follow you?

I wrote: "I think the idea that he's markedly better from the shotgun is basically a myth at this point" and you provided info showing that this season (which is basically what I meant by "at this point") Bridgewater has improved under center. In fact, the numbers on that chart showed him with a slightly higher rating under center this season (but close enough to his 2015 rating from the shotgun that the difference is pretty negligible). He also averages more YPA.

In other words, the chart shows that this year, statistically, he's wasn't better from the shotgun.

Oh. My bad. I thought it was OK to view his stats as a whole, which would include the bad performances. Maybe we should just focus on the bad ones as whole representative of Teddy.

I was just pointing out the generalization. His stats for December are good but it's not as if a light comes on when the month begins and he just plays well. He's still up and down so I'm not sure "December" is terribly relevant, especially in terms of game-planning. If it is, maybe they can somehow convince him that December is a little over 5 months long?

He's also good at intermediate passes. I mentioned that.

I was including them as part of "short passes". I apologize for not being specific. Basically, I'd say his comfort zone is within about 15 yards of the line, but he has obviously made some nice throws beyond that distance.

I don't know what to tell you, Jim. Teddy has shown he can be effective with short/intermediate pass-specific game plans and he does more well than hit short-route wide-open receivers when he's being blitzed. This team is not built to stretch the field vertically, at least not consistently. It just isn't. Implementing a more vertically-oriented game plan would be the dumbest thing for Norv to do, especially against Seattle's front seven that's head-and-shoulders above this iteration of the Vikings' offensive line. I'm all for taking shots down the field but I personally think that needs to be kept to a minimum to protect the line (and Teddy) and the offense as a whole.

If you don't know what to tell me then we're basically in the same place on this. I agree that Teddy has shown he can sometimes be effective within short/intermediate pass-heavy game plans but again, what is Turner supposed to do when a defense can get his QB out of that comfort zone?

I'm not absolving Teddy but let's not simply dismiss excess pressure as an excuse for under-performance.

I didn't dismiss it, I said it's used an excuse too often, which isn't the same thing. Some of that pressure is obviously very disruptive.

I'm not going to argue about the accuracy of the PFF stat. You know what I think of their credibility.

I apologize for not quoting the Cutler/Flacco stats. I read them and again, I'm not dismissing pressure. It's a factor but I also think some of the pressure Bridgewater finds himself under is self-induced. When he's indecisive, holds the ball too long, scrambles unnecessarily, etc. he sometimes contributes to the problem.

[DK Sweets]

Jim, how good of a player do you think Teddy will turn out to be?

I feel like you stay fairly ambiguous on the subject, but you continually point out his flaws and caution others about praising him too much. I just want to know exactly how you feel about him.

Let's say on a tier scale of 1-5, where do you think he ranks now and what is your guess for 5 years for now?

[mondry]

Jim, how good of a player do you think Teddy will turn out to be?

I feel like you stay fairly ambiguous on the subject, but you continually point out his flaws and caution others about praising him too much. I just want to know exactly how you feel about him.

Let's say on a tier scale of 1-5, where do you think he ranks now and what is your guess for 5 years for now?

Not to put words in his mouth but he's said before that he's probably like a 3, the type of guy who would need an extremely good supporting cast to win the big bowl, not an elite QB that can carry a team like Newton or Rodgers.

[Mothman]

Jim, how good of a player do you think Teddy will turn out to be?

I feel like you stay fairly ambiguous on the subject, but you continually point out his flaws and caution others about praising him too much. I just want to know exactly how you feel about him.

You're onto me, Dakota!

I've been pretty ambiguous because I really don't have a good read on how he'll turn out. I'm alternately encouraged and discouraged and just sort of along for the ride as an interested fan. Reusse used a word in his column that describes my feelings about Bridgewater pretty well: I think he's a limited player. That's about as exact as I can describe my view of him.

Let's say on a tier scale of 1-5, where do you think he ranks now and what is your guess for 5 years for now?

Assuming 1 is the bottom and 5 is the top...

I'd say he's a 2 right now. Assuming progress, my best guess is 5 years from now he'll be a 3.

That's how I feel about it right now. How would you rank him using the same numerical scale?

[Mothman]

Not to put words in his mouth but he's said before that he's probably like a 3, the type of guy who would need an extremely good supporting cast to win the big bowl, not an elite QB that can carry a team like Newton or Rodgers.

You've pretty much got it right, Mondry. I don't think he has a "ceiling" as high as those platers.

I'm admittedly (and obviously) conflicted about the whole thing and I apologize to everyone if I post about it too much and aggravate people. That's not my intent.

[Purple bruise]

You've pretty much got it right, Mondry. I don't think he has a "ceiling" as high as those platers.

I'm admittedly (and obviously) conflicted about the whole thing and I apologize to everyone if I post about it too much and aggravate people. That's not my intent.

You do