Vikings @ Packers Game Day Discussion Thread -- Week 17

[yezzir]

Good Morning and Skol!!!

It's been a fun year. Let's cap it off with a banner to hang at the Bank next year!


The NFL saved the best for last for this wild and unpredictable 2015 season. The NFC North title is on the line in game No. 256 when the Green Bay Packers host the Minnesota Vikings in the season finale of Sunday Night Football. Both teams are 10-5 -- though going in opposite directions -- with the division title and a guaranteed home playoff game up for grabs at Lambeau Field.

The Packers raced out to a 6-0 start but have won just four of nine games since. They are coming off an embarrassing 30-point loss to the Arizona Cardinals, and right now don't look like they can compete with the league's upper echelon. This team has been playing subpar football for more than two months, and there is little reason to think that the Packers can make a deep postseason run -- or even win a single playoff game.

The Vikings, meanwhile, were 2-2 after the first month, but have finished strong with eight wins in their last 11 games. They just clinched their first playoff berth since 2012 and are looking like a team that won't be satisfied with simply a token postseason appearance. Minnesota has the talent and swagger heading into this pivotal showdown to not only capture its first division title in six years, but also make some serious noise in January.

While Minnesota has the advantage in momentum, history is not on its side as it tries to end Green Bay's four-year reign atop the NFC North. The Vikings are just 1-10-1 against their rivals over the past six seasons and haven't won on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field since Nov. 1, 2009. Of those 10 losses, seven have come by more than one touchdown.

The seeding scenarios for both teams are fairly straightforward. The winner will be the division champ, receive the No. 3 seed and host the sixth seed next weekend. The loser will be relegated to a wild card spot and go on the road for its first playoff game. If the Packers lose, they'll secure the fifth seed regardless of what the Seattle Seahawks do. If the Vikings lose, they'll be the fifth seed if Seattle also loses, but will drop to No. 6 if Seattle beats the Cardinals.

Digits

This second Vikings-Packers matchup has an eerily familiar feel to it, similar to the first meeting between the rivals in Week 11. A spirited Minnesota club was brimming with confidence and riding a five-game win streak, while Green Bay was reeling and in the midst of a three-game skid. Then the Packers reminded everyone of their divisional dominance and delivered a convincing 30-13 blowout win.

Once again, the Vikings seemingly have the Packers right where they want them. This time, however, they appear poised to reverse the outcome. First, Teddy Bridgewater has been outstanding in December and is showing that he's more than just a game manager. Over his last three games, he has completed 70 percent of his passes for an average of 9.1 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. His 123.2 passer rating is the second-best of any quarterback in that span.

Second, now that they have their entire complement of defenders back from injury, they look like the unit that had allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL through Week 10. Safety Harrison Smith, linebacker Anthony Barr and nose tackle Linval Joseph were each active last week and the result was an impressive reminder of what they can do at full strength. They held the Giants to just a field goal through 44 minutes, sacked Eli Manning four times and forced three turnovers in the victory.

The return to health of Minnesota's defense is foreboding for a Packers offense that has been uncharacteristically mediocre all season. For years, Aaron Rodgers and the offense has carried the team. Not in 2015. They are on pace to rank outside the top 10 in both scoring and total offense for the first time since 2005, and their 24th-place standing in yardage would be their worst since 1991. The Packers finished 4-12 in both of those seasons.

The problems on offense start with a banged-up offensive line that has struggled mightily in pass protection, ranking 24th in sack rate this season. Complicating things in the passing game is the receivers' inability to get open and win the one-on-one battles downfield. Hence, it is no coincidence that the Packers are at their best when they feature a balanced game plan. They are 7-1 when they rush on at least 45 percent of their plays (and 3-4 when they don't).

This is likely going to end up as one of Rodgers' worst campaigns since becoming the full-time starter in 2008. He's on track for his lowest completion percentage, fewest yards per attempt and lowest passer rating in a season. He has been held under 150 yards passing in a game that he started and finished three times in his career -- and two of those contests have come this year (Week 8 vs. Broncos and last week vs. Cardinals).

Who to Watch

As good as Bridgewater has been in the last few weeks, this is still Adrian Peterson's offense and the effectiveness of the run game will likely be the key determinant of the Vikings' fate in the postseason.

Peterson is putting up a vintage performance this season with a league-leading 1,418 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Already with an NFL-best seven 100-yard rushing games this season, Peterson should be primed for another standout effort against a Packers run defense that ranks 21st in yards per game and 27th in yards per carry allowed.

He is also poised to claim his third career rushing title, which would be put him in some very elite company. Only seven other players have led the NFL in rushing three or more times -- Jim Brown, Steve Van Buren, O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Earl Campbell -- and all of those guys are Hall of Famers.

How to Watch

When: 8:30 p.m. ET Sunday

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

TV: NBC

Announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya

Online: NBC Sports

Odds

The Packers are 3-point favorites and the over/under is 45.5, according to OddsShark.com

SBnation.com

[yezzir]

I swear espn has a bunch of closet Viking fans. They're all wearing purple ties!

[Jordysghost]

This 'different directions' and 'momentum' angle is being overstated, the Packers have won 3 of the last 4 with a blowout loss to the Cardinals, the Vikings have won 2 of last 4 with a blowout loss to the Seahawks.

Also, off though it may be, the Packers Offense has ranked top 10 in scoring nearly all season, that is hardly 'mediocre'.

[The Breeze]

I see this being a tight game in the first half....13-10 kind of deal.
If the Vikes D can steer clear of drive extending penalties, Minny will run away with it in the 2nd half.
Norv, will have to be less predictable in his use of AD.
Play action on 1st down would be a great way to put a little lull in the Packers pass rush....but I am totally ready to bet all of your guys money that the Vikes first play will be to run AD straight ahead.
Late in the year in an extremely meaningful game, against a division opponent who knows your tendencies, is a great time to go off script and add some wrinkles.....even if it's only mixing the run/pass scenario up.
It sucks if Joseph can't go..but I think the LBs and secondary come up big tonight.
Vikes by 10 in the end.

[Mothman]

This 'different directions' and 'momentum' angle is being overstated, the Packers have won 3 of the last 4 with a blowout loss to the Cardinals, the Vikings have won 2 of last 4 with a blowout loss to the Seahawks.

Also, off though it may be, the Packers Offense has ranked top 10 in scoring nearly all season, that is hardly 'mediocre'.

I agree. the momentum/"different directions" angle has been greatly overstated. It seems like the differences in the way the two teams performed against Arizona has been getting some play too, as if that's more significant than the actual game they played head-to-head earlier this year.

I suspect you'll agree that the Packers look vulnerable right now but they're still a 10 win team with an offense that can put up points in a hurry. I think they deserve to be favored at home. I hope the Vikes can find a way to take back that NFC North crown but I think it will require one of their best performances (perhaps the best) of the year.

Hopefully, this will be a great game!

[Texas Vike]

.but I am totally ready to bet all of your guys money that the Vikes first play will be to run AD straight ahead.

Safe bet, even with your own money!

That's the one thing I'll be looking for... if bad Norv returns, we will lose in a stinker. If he calls a smart game, I think we'll win.

[Texas Vike]

I agree. the momentum/"different directions" angle has been greatly overstated. It seems like the differences in the way the two teams performed against Arizona has been getting some play too, as if that's more significant than the actual game they played head-to-head earlier this year.

I suspect you'll agree that the Packers look vulnerable right now but they're still a 10 win team with an offense that can put up points in a hurry. I think they deserve to be favored at home. I hope the Vikes can find a way to take back that NFC North crown but I think it will require one of their best performances (perhaps the best) of the year.

Hopefully, this will be a great game!

I agree. That write up sounded like a Vikings' fan trying to convince himself that they are the favorites in this one. Mularky. If I were a betting man, I'd stay away from this game. I think the line is 3 for the Pack, which seems about right to me.

That said, I do think we have a decent shot at winning this game. I hope they come out with a smart game plan and execute it. I didn't really like the way that the Vikings handled the lead up part one of this match up (with the t-shirts and all). They need to treat it as just another game. Here are their tendencies, this is where we match up well against them, this is what we want to exploit, etc. No emotion, no unsportsman like penalties, no lack of judgement in their play.

[Mothman]

I agree. That write up sounded like a Vikings' fan trying to convince himself that they are the favorites in this one. Mularky. If I were a betting man, I'd stay away from this game. I think the line is 3 for the Pack, which seems about right to me.

I think that sounds about right too. 3 points for home field advantage...

That said, I do think we have a decent shot at winning this game. I hope they come out with a smart game plan and execute it. I didn't really like the way that the Vikings handled the lead up part one of this match up (with the t-shirts and all). They need to treat it as just another game. Here are their tendencies, this is where we match up well against them, this is what we want to exploit, etc. No emotion, no unsportsman like penalties, no lack of judgement in their play.

I think they need to play with emotion but not with emotional baggage about the rivalry (which I'm guessing is what you meant).

Norv has to stick with the run and the Vikes have to take shots downfield and keep the GB defense honest. It seems to me that in their two previous matchups against Bridgewater, Green Bay has been pretty good about taking away a lot of the routes he prefers to throw and making him uncomfortable.

Norv can't allow the Packers to make his offense one-dimensional. They have to commit to running the ball like they did against Arizona. I sure hope we see a solid performance from the OL.

Offensively, I think getting the ball to Rudolph could be a key factor. Defensively, they'd better be able to stop Lacy and the GB running game or there's no way they win this game.

I agree that they have a decent shot to win though... I just expect it to be difficult.

[The Breeze]

I think AD has to be a huge factor tonight, which to me, means they have to use the passing game to help open up some room. He had no room against Giants and really hasn't had much room the past month. He only needs a little...but this line has really struggled lately in run blocking. I really think Norv can help it out by using the pass. And like Jim noted, Rudolphf can and hopefully will be effective in that area.
I feel good about the defense...even without Joseph. Jusy my gut.
The Pack's D has had the Vikes # though...AD needs to get off.

[Pondering Her Percy]

This day has finally arrived!!! I feel like I've been waiting forever. I have a great feeling about this game today. Not sure why. I just feel like Zim is gonna really have these guys ready and I don't think GB is going to be ready for it.

[CbusVikesFan]

I am sure that the Packers D is gearing up to stop AP and daring TB to beat them with the pass. I would like to see the Vikings line up with the basic "AP run off tackle" and throw deep, first play from scrimmage. And do it more than once to help keep GB off balance.

[The Breeze]

I am sure that the Packers D is gearing up to stop AP and daring TB to beat them with the pass. I would like to see the Vikings line up with the basic "AP run off tackle" and throw deep, first play from scrimmage. And do it more than once to help keep GB off balance.

Couldn't agree more. I don't care how far downfield the passes are as long as they are completions. Pass effectively outta running formations until they commit to stopping it....then unleash AD. Easier said than done.

[Mothman]

Interesting stuff from Ancrew Krammer:

http://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2016/ ... itle-game/

Breaking through – Mike Zimmer hasn’t used the blitz against Aaron Rodgers very much in the three outings since he was hired in Minnesota. Sunday’s matchup will an interesting case study to see if Zimmer sticks with that approach after the Cardinals sent a five-man rush or more on nearly half of Rodgers’ drop backs last week. The Packers allowed as many sacks (8) as they had points (8) in the blowout loss at Arizona. A healthy linebacker Anthony Barr, who was not on the injury report for the first time in eight weeks, could certainly help the Vikings create havoc. Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari is questionable with an ankle injury.

Staying upright — Sunday will provide a chance for left tackle Matt Kalil and the Vikings’ offensive line to get revenge after they were thoroughly beat by the Packers to the tune of six sacks in November’s loss. A recently tweaked approach with quicker passes could help the Vikings this time around. Though this offense still incorporates a lot of vertical routes, and they’ll need better play from protection against Green Bay.

[CbusVikesFan]

Couldn't agree more. I don't care how far downfield the passes are as long as they are completions. Pass effectively outta running formations until they commit to stopping it....then unleash AD. Easier said than done.

Yes, but it CAN be done. I am hoping what they are thinking and planning for we already know, flip the script on them and blow their minds with some smoke and mirrors, trap doors, finger puzzles, and a game of "Risk".

[Mothman]

Yes, but it CAN be done. I am hoping what they are thinking and planning for we already know, flip the script on them and blow their minds with some smoke and mirrors, trap doors, finger puzzles, and a game of "Risk".

I'm thinking we may see more of that script-flipping in the playoffs than we will this week (assuming we see it at all). I do hope they mix things up more though, especially on first down.