My thoughts on the offense as a whole

[dead_poet]

As an aside, after years of people complaining about Childress' dink and dunk offense and Musgrave's west coast offense concepts, it's ironic that so many Vikings fans now want the team to make short passing the focus of their passing game.

I'm not sure about others but here's my reasons:

1) The offensive line can't pass protect long enough to make seven-step drops consistently effective

2) Lack of Alshon Jeffery/A.J. Green/Calvin Johnson-like tall, field-stretching, contested-ball downfield receiver. I'm not necessarily saying Diggs/Johnson/Patterson aren't that in some capacity but I'm not sure that's consistently "where they win" ("yet" may be applied to Diggs due to the small sample size). Wallace's ticket has always been more his speed/separation abilities which are being wasted by the previous reason above.

3) When they do it, it seems to work. Also takes advantage of short-area quickness (vs. field-stretching speed) which are advantages (especially guys like Diggs, Wright, Theilen, Patterson). That's not to say our receivers don't have that type of long-speed but we can't pass protect long enough to take advantage of it.

I don't think it's really the preferred method of our offense by fans (I'm sure the Pepper-Moss, exciting vertical days of yore would be), but as Zimmer says "This is who we are right now." It's frustrating when it seems like Norv doesn't seem to grasp that as he continues to drop Teddy back 5-7-yard drops only to continue to see him have to scramble to avoid getting smushed and not putting him in the best position to win. Of course this does come with the caveat that perhaps the calls are what they are because the defense is taking away the short stuff and challenging the Vikings to beat them deep, which they've struggled to do for multiple reasons (listed above) as well as not a present strength of Teddy's.

Just my $0.02.

[losperros]

I'm not sure about others but here's my reasons:

1) The offensive line can't pass protect long enough to make seven-step drops consistently effective

Yes, I agree. I don't think that point can be argued.

2) Lack of Alshon Jeffery/A.J. Green/Calvin Johnson-like tall, field-stretching, contested-ball downfield receiver. I'm not necessarily saying Diggs/Johnson/Patterson aren't that in some capacity but I'm not sure that's consistently "where they win" ("yet" may be applied to Diggs due to the small sample size). Wallace's ticket has always been more his speed/separation abilities which are being wasted by the previous reason above..

I believe both Charles Johnson and Cordarrelle Patterson could do the above if only the Vikings would do the above. CJ and CP84 are both big, tall, jump well, and blazing fast. But even if a guy like Jeffery was on the team, would the porous OL allow him to stretch the field. For example, Patterson can make a short catch and turn it into a long gain.

I don't think it's really the preferred method of our offense by fans (I'm sure the Pepper-Moss, exciting vertical days of yore would be), but as Zimmer says "This is who we are right now." It's frustrating when it seems like Norv doesn't seem to grasp that as he continues to drop Teddy back 5-7-yard drops only to continue to see him have to scramble to avoid getting smushed and not putting him in the best position to win. Of course this does come with the caveat that perhaps the calls are what they are because the defense is taking away the short stuff and challenging the Vikings to beat them deep, which they've struggled to do for multiple reasons (listed above) as well as not a present strength of Teddy's.

Just my $0.02.

In my view, it's who they are now partly because Zimmer/Turner won't try other guys that could even add to their present system. And who they are is a 30th ranked pass offense.

[IIsweet]

Gotta say that after watching plenty of Teddy B highlight film AND Devante Parker, I see A LOT of Teddy in a Pistol offense. Next I see is the I formation. I wonder why we do not get into the Pistol waaaaaaay more frequently?
Teddy has time, AD gets the ball deep, and I think it's the way to go.

Wonder if "my way" Norv has seen footage of a special Teddy or still just trying to fit the square into a circle peg hole still ?

[Mothman]

The deep drops are never going to be consistently effective but the degree to which they're ineffective, and the impact they've had on the offense, has been greatly overplayed. The implication I keep getting from comments here is that they should be phased out but even off the top of my head, I can think of several instances where they were well-protected. For example, the first half TD to Rudolph against Green Bay came on a 7 step drop and that was the only time the Vikes scored in the first half of that game, a half in which they tried to emphasize their short passing game.

The second quarter INT against Seattle came on a well-protected deep drop (might have been more of a 5 than a 7) and Bridgewater had Wright open over the middle. He just overthrew the pass.

There was a play in the 3rd quarter at Soldier field in which Wallace got great separation deep (he was essentially wide open) and Bridgewater, on a well-protected deep drop, overthrew him. That would have been an easy TD.

Again, those are just a few plays I recall. There are other examples (both pro and con).

That brings me to Wallace and I don't agree that his speed/separation ability has been wasted because the o-line can't pass protect. That lets Bridgewater off the hook. He's missed Wallace on too many throws when the latter was open this year and the protection was there. He's also passed on opportunities to throw down the field to Wallace (again, while well-protected).

I just heard Paul Allen on WSCR in Chicago and he repeatedly blamed the OL for Bridgewater's woes. It's become a tired, overplayed excuse, one of several. There's no doubt protection issues have been a problem this year but in the same interview, PA talked about the 2 or 3 missed opportunities to Wallace in the Bears game earlier this year. He acknowledged that Bridgewater missed the throws but then deflected blame by saying Teddy is so freaked out by the pass protection that he's missing open passes. Frankly, that's just passing the buck.

The Vikes throw passes that travel 10 yards or less over 70% of the time. Some of those passes are check downs but not the majority. They throw passes of 20+ yards about 10% of the time and they've only completed 8 of them all season. They're already throwing short often and they still have one of the league's least effective passing games. I don't think it's going to become more effective by throwing short even more. Adding a big receiver who can go get 50/50 passes is only going to help if Bridgewater is less risk-averse in his decision-making and will throw into single coverage to give receivers a chance to make those plays.

I think Turner needs to keep calling quick-developing plays and even on deeper plays with deeper routes, he has to give Bridgewater the option to get the ball out of his hand quickly. That will help reduce sacks and I don't mean to imply that it doesn't happen on plays already. I think he also needs to get Patterson involved because the offense needs more explosive plays and he's an explosive player, perhaps more capable of turning those shorter routes were discussing into long gains than anybody else on the team. However, Bridgewater has to be a little less willing to check down and throw the ball away and a little more willing to give his receivers the opportunity to make plays on the ball . he also needs to have more trust in the timing of routes (particularly deep crosses and comebacks).

Turner also need to become less predictable with his playcalling on first down. That could help a lot.

Everybody involved with the offense, from Turner on down, has room to improve but this team has QB issues and a lot of fans and media members seem in denial about it. They aren't going to become a better offense if they abandon what little downfield passing game they currently possess. They have to develop it and that means Bridgwater has to be willing to make those throws and he has to get better at hitting them. I think he can do that but he has to be willing to cut loose.

[losperros]

The second quarter INT against Seattle came on a well-protected deep drop (might have been more of a 5 than a 7) and Bridgewater had Wright open over the middle. He just overthrew the pass.

There was a play in the 3rd quarter at Soldier field in which Wallace got great separation deep (he was essentially wide open) and Bridgewater, on a well-protected deep drop, overthrew him. That would have been an easy TD.

That brings me to Wallace and I don't agree that his speed/separation ability has been wasted because the o-line can't pass protect. That lets Bridgewater off the hook. He's missed Wallace on too many throws when the latter was open this year and the protection was there. He's also passed on opportunities to throw down the field to Wallace (again, while well-protected).

I think the overthrows are a big problem and possibly the main reason why the deep tosses to Wallace haven't worked. I wish I could remember which TV announcer said it was a technique issue that was causing Bridgewater to sail his passes. IIRC, he said it was something about Teddy dropping his elbow during the throw. Whatever the case, it's something that really needs to be changed.

I just heard Paul Allen on WSCR in Chicago and he repeatedly blamed the OL for Bridgewater's woes. It's become a tired, overplayed excuse, one of several. There's no doubt protection issues have been a problem this year but in the same interview, PA talked about the 2 or 3 missed opportunities to Wallace in the Bears game earlier this year. He acknowledged that Bridgewater missed the throws but then deflected blame by saying Teddy is so freaked out by the pass protection that he's missing open passes. Frankly, that's just passing the buck.

I think the porous blocking has damaged the offense a lot this season and not just the passing game. AD is too often snuffed behind the line of scrimmage because one of the offensive linemen whiffed on a block. The troubles due to the OL shouldn't be used as an excuse but it's definitely an area that has adversely affected the skill positions.

Turner also need to become less predictable with his playcalling on first down. That could help a lot.

Everybody involved with the offense, from Turner on down, has room to improve but this team has QB issues and a lot of fans and media members seem in denial about it. They aren't going to become a better offense if they abandon what little downfield passing game they currently possess. They have to develop it and that means Bridgwater has to be willing to make those throws and he has to get better at hitting them. I think he can do that but he has to be willing to cut loose.

Good post, Jim. I enjoyed reading it and I really liked your analysis. Admittedly, I've been really dumping on Norv lately but the sometimes predictable playcalling, two potential big playmakers that could be a help in the passing game sitting on the bench, and his stubbornness piss me off. As you said in another thread, Zimmer needs to take some heat as well. I just think there are some changes that could be made right now. And there are other things the Vikings absolutely must address during the next offseason.

[Mothman]

I think the overthrows are a big problem and possibly the main reason why the deep tosses to Wallace haven't worked. I wish I could remember which TV announcer said it was a technique issue that was causing Bridgewater to sail his passes. IIRC, he said it was something about Teddy dropping his elbow during the throw. Whatever the case, it's something that really needs to be changed.

I forget which announcer said it but I think you're recalling it correctly. he does have a tendency to drop his elbow and have passes sail on him. He also throws off his back foot at times. When his form is good, he seems to throw the ball quite well.

I think the porous blocking has damaged the offense a lot this season and not just the passing game. AD is too often snuffed behind the line of scrimmage because one of the offensive linemen whiffed on a block. The troubles due to the OL shouldn't be used as an excuse but it's definitely an area that has adversely affected the skill positions.

I wholeheartedly agree. The blocking has been a issue all year in both the running and passing game.

Good post, Jim. I enjoyed reading it and I really liked your analysis.

Thanks. I appreciate that. I almost didn't post it. I take no pleasure in criticizing Bridgewater. I'm just trying to comment based on what I've seen and I believe he's playing a role in the offensive struggles to at least the same extent as the OL, the receivers and Turner. They all need to get it together because this Vikes team needs more (and more consistent) production from their passing game.

I've been really dumping on Norv lately but the sometimes predictable playcalling, two potential big playmakers that could be a help in the passing game sitting on the bench, and his stubbornness piss me off. As you said in another thread, Zimmer needs to take some heat as well. I just think there are some changes that could be made right now. And there are other things the Vikings absolutely must address during the next offseason.

I agree and I hope they continue to adjust on the fly and continue to address the offense during the offseason.

[losperros]

Thanks. I appreciate that. I almost didn't post it. I take no pleasure in criticizing Bridgewater. I'm just trying to comment based on what I've seen and I believe he's playing a role in the offensive struggles to at least the same extent as the OL, the receivers and Turner. They all need to get it together because this Vikes team needs more (and more consistent) production from their passing game.

You know, I was just watching a link (Vikings vs Jets 2014) that Demi posted in another thread and it convinced me more than ever that Bridgewater has regressed this season. In fact, I think there is little doubt that he was playing far better during December of last year than he is currently. The link even has some nice passes to Charles Johnson. There really seems to be chemistry between them, plus Teddy's throwing with more authority than we've seen from him this season.

So what the heck happened? Why the big step backward? And it's a big step backward. He's had technique issues, lapses in concentration, played far too conservatively, and made bad judgements. I'm not saying he was perfect during his rookie year but by December of 2014 Bridgewater was showing signs of improvement already. Then this year rolls around and it's like he's starting all over again. Go figure.

http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/vide ... c26a93f3e4

[TSonn]

You know, I was just watching a link (Vikings vs Jets 2014) that Demi posted in another thread and it convinced me more than ever that Bridgewater has regressed this season. In fact, I think there is little doubt that he was playing far better during December of last year than he is currently. The link even has some nice passes to Charles Johnson. There really seems to be chemistry between them, plus Teddy's throwing with more authority than we've seen from him this season.

So what the heck happened? Why the big step backward? And it's a big step backward. He's had technique issues, lapses in concentration, played far too conservatively, and made bad judgements. I'm not saying he was perfect during his rookie year but by December of 2014 Bridgewater was showing signs of improvement already. Then this year rolls around and it's like he's starting all over again. Go figure.

http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/vide ... c26a93f3e4

His stats haven't really dropped off that much, (and in some categories like have gotten better) but I agree that he doesn't look as confident out there this year. It makes sense to me that the coaching staff has asked him to play safe (despite what they say to the media). We've got the best runner in the league and a defense that can hold teams under 18 points a game when we win the turnover battle. Knowing both of those things, why would they encourage Teddy to take any chances? We've also had a winning record most of the year by relying on those things, so again - why change it up now? (For the record, I'm not arguing to keep it the same, just trying to explain the coach's potential thought process).

The times Teddy has looked good this year are the opening drives when everything is scripted, when we've been down 10 at AZ and DEN, and then in the 5 minute and 2 minute drill when we need points. In those situations, it seems like the coaches don't care much about taking chances since the plays are already all scripted or we need to score points quickly to win. But in the middle of the game when the score is close, the leash on Teddy's throws is a lot tighter.

It also translates to last year since Teddy looked pretty good at the end of the season when we had low expectations and no running game to feed. Maybe he was given more a green light last year.

[Texas Vike]

His stats haven't really dropped off that much, (and in some categories like have gotten better) but I agree that he doesn't look as confident out there this year. It makes sense to me that the coaching staff has asked him to play safe (despite what they say to the media). We've got the best runner in the league and a defense that can hold teams under 18 points a game when we win the turnover battle. Knowing both of those things, why would they encourage Teddy to take any chances? We've also had a winning record most of the year by relying on those things, so again - why change it up now? (For the record, I'm not arguing to keep it the same, just trying to explain the coach's potential thought process).

The times Teddy has looked good this year are the opening drives when everything is scripted, when we've been down 10 at AZ and DEN, and then in the 5 minute and 2 minute drill when we need points. In those situations, it seems like the coaches don't care much about taking chances since the plays are already all scripted or we need to points quickly to win. But it the middle of the game when the score is close, the leash on Teddy's throws is a lot tighter.

It also translates to last year since Teddy looked pretty good at the end of the season when we had low expectations and no running game to feed. Maybe he was given more a green light last year.

Solid observation.

[Mothman]

His stats haven't really dropped off that much, (and in some categories like have gotten better) but I agree that he doesn't look as confident out there this year. It makes sense to me that the coaching staff has asked him to play safe (despite what they say to the media). We've got the best runner in the league and a defense that can hold teams under 18 points a game when we win the turnover battle. Knowing both of those things, why would they encourage Teddy to take any chances? We've also had a winning record most of the year by relying on those things, so again - why change it up now? (For the record, I'm not arguing to keep it the same, just trying to explain the coach's potential thought process).

I would think the answer to that question would be: they've lost 3 of 4 and the offense has scored a total of just 33 points over those 3 losses.

The times Teddy has looked good this year are the opening drives when everything is scripted, when we've been down 10 at AZ and DEN, and then in the 5 minute and 2 minute drill when we need points. In those situations, it seems like the coaches don't care much about taking chances since the plays are already all scripted or we need to points quickly to win. But it the middle of the game when the score is close, the leash on Teddy's throws is a lot tighter.

It also translates to last year since Teddy looked pretty good at the end of the season when we had low expectations and no running game to feed. Maybe he was given more a green light last year.

Maybe but Zimmer said earlier this season that he'd like Bridgewater to "let it loose" so I'm inclined to think the restrained play is coming from the QB himself, not his coaches.

[TSonn]

Maybe but Zimmer said earlier this season that he'd like Bridgewater to "let it loose" so I'm inclined to think the restrained play is coming from the QB himself, not his coaches.

"Let it loose, kid! But, you know, still don't turn it over and make stupid throws because we are in the playoff hunt."

[TSonn]

I would think the answer to that question would be: they've lost 3 of 4 and the offense has scored a total of just 33 points over those 3 losses.

Well, our offense in those 3 losses...

Against GB: Vikes offense got more yards (342) than the Pack offense (320). Teddy also had more yards and a better passer rating (101) than ARod (87).
Against SEA: Really bad game. Terrible all around. Teddy also played really poorly and they abandoned the run game.
Against AZ: Vikes offense got beat in yards (389) by a hair against the number 1 offense in AZ (393).

We definitely need to score more points, but our offense put up some good production in two of those losses. The Seattle game was admittedly terrible but seems to be more of an outlier because Seattle is dominating everybody right now. I also don't think it's as much of a crisis as some others since the other two losses in that stretch had a lot of positives on offense. Now it's just a matter of making sure that offensive production produces more points.

Back to my original point: aside from the Seattle game, there hasn't been a need to change up that game plan for the season from the coach's perspective. I do think they let Teddy open up a bit more against AZ and he did produce, but he still didn't throw too many risky passes.

[Mothman]

"Let it loose, kid! But, you know, still don't turn it over and make stupid throws because we are in the playoff hunt."

Touché. It might have gone something like that but honestly, what coach doesn't ask his players to avoid turnovers?

Well, our offense in those 3 losses...

Against GB: Vikes offense got more yards (342) than the Pack offense (320). Teddy also had more yards and a better passer rating (101) than ARod (87).
Against SEA: Really bad game. Terrible all around. Teddy also played really poorly and they abandoned the run game.
Against AZ: Vikes offense got beat in yards (389) by a hair against the number 1 offense in AZ (393).

We definitely need to score more points, but our offense put up some good production in two of those losses.

But ultimately, unless the defense is really holding the opposition down, point production is what matters. Out-gaining the Packers but only scoring 13 points and losing by 17 is cold comfort at best.

The Seattle game was admittedly terrible but seems to be more of an outlier because Seattle is dominating everybody right now. I also don't think it's as much of a crisis as some others since the other two losses in that stretch had a lot of positives on offense. Now it's just a matter of making sure that offensive production produces more points.

Back to my original point: aside from the Seattle game, there hasn't been a need to change up that game plan for the season from the coach's perspective. I do think they let Teddy open up a bit more against AZ and he did produce, but he still didn't throw too many risky passes.

Saying the coaches are responsible for Bridgewater's conservative play just seems like another way to divert responsibility away from Bridgewater himself.

As for the need to change things up: I think it's been apparent most of the season that the offense needs to do a better job of finishing drives with TDs and scoring points. It's not surprising at all that it's hurt them as the schedule became tougher. It wasn't hard to see that coming, even when they were winning and if the coaches didn't see that as a problem, that would disappoint me.

This team seems to have a hard time scoring more than 20 points in 4 quarters. They've finished games with 20 or less 7 times this year and it took overtime to get to 21 against the Rams. Last year, they scored 20 or less nine times.

[Mothman]

You know, I was just watching a link (Vikings vs Jets 2014) that Demi posted in another thread and it convinced me more than ever that Bridgewater has regressed this season. In fact, I think there is little doubt that he was playing far better during December of last year than he is currently. The link even has some nice passes to Charles Johnson. There really seems to be chemistry between them, plus Teddy's throwing with more authority than we've seen from him this season.

So what the heck happened? Why the big step backward? And it's a big step backward. He's had technique issues, lapses in concentration, played far too conservatively, and made bad judgements. I'm not saying he was perfect during his rookie year but by December of 2014 Bridgewater was showing signs of improvement already. Then this year rolls around and it's like he's starting all over again. Go figure.

http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/vide ... c26a93f3e4

I'm not sure what to say about it. I wasn't as impressed by his play last December as many were but it does seem like he was playing with more confidence. Maybe lack of continuity at receiver has had a negative impact in that regard but that might be a reach. I'm inclined to think defenses have been able to watch film of him and make him more uncomfortable. Also, to TSonn's point: maybe it's not that Bridgewater's coaches are asking him to be risk averse but perhaps winning itself has had that effect. Maybe he just doesn't want to be the one who screws it up?

I don't know, now that I read what I just typed it feels like a reach too. Only Bridgewater really knows what's going on in his head. He might just be a conscientious QB who would rather play conservatively and pick his shots than take more chances and possibly end up with more turnovers.

[mondry]

Well, our offense in those 3 losses...

Against GB: Vikes offense got more yards (342) than the Pack offense (320). Teddy also had more yards and a better passer rating (101) than ARod (87).
Against SEA: Really bad game. Terrible all around. Teddy also played really poorly and they abandoned the run game.
Against AZ: Vikes offense got beat in yards (389) by a hair against the number 1 offense in AZ (393).

We definitely need to score more points, but our offense put up some good production in two of those losses. The Seattle game was admittedly terrible but seems to be more of an outlier because Seattle is dominating everybody right now. I also don't think it's as much of a crisis as some others since the other two losses in that stretch had a lot of positives on offense. Now it's just a matter of making sure that offensive production produces more points.

Back to my original point: aside from the Seattle game, there hasn't been a need to change up that game plan for the season from the coach's perspective. I do think they let Teddy open up a bit more against AZ and he did produce, but he still didn't throw too many risky passes.

As more and more data, research, and analysis get's done it's pretty clear that Norv is most of the problem. Data suggest now that the O-line, while still not ideal, actually protects "okay", there are plenty of plays when they block long enough for something good to happen. The problem is their inconsistency and then you combine that with long developing plays it makes them look worse than they actually are. Most O-lines in the league cannot keep pressure off the QB for over 3 seconds and a good portion of Norv's play's are asking for that or more. This makes it look like Teddy's holding the ball too long but in reality it's what the play calls for. You can see this time and time again on film where Teddy hits the top of his 7 step drop and the Wr's are still not ready for the ball to come out, they're still going deeper. From what I've seen, other teams QB's we've faced are getting rid of the ball on average in about 2.4-2.6 seconds while Bridgewater's average is around 2.9. That may not seem like much but it's the difference between getting strip sacked by Freeney and having a faster developing route to get rid of the ball. If anyone's curious, Teddy's average time of release for the ARI game with the new game plan was 2.48, almost a full half second quicker than any other game and right along with just about every other QB. On the 7 step drops it skyrockets to 3.02 seconds.


The other aspect to consider is Teddy's strengths and weaknesses as a QB. To be blunt, he's simply not fit for a deep vertical passing game but the data suggests he's borderline elite at everything in the 0-16 yard short and intermediate throws and he's elite against the blitz (or when teams rush more than 4). The problem is good teams are able to get pressure with their front 4 and when you add long developing plays that take over 3 seconds to unfold downfield it's doubling down on our weaknesses (O-line consistency and QB weaknesses)

The Wr's also have trouble getting open on these long develop plays, defenses have done their research and they seem content to camp out in the deeper portion of the field and our long developing route concepts often run the WR's straight into their coverage. Watch the 2nd half of the seattle game to get the most obvious example of this.

Norv likes to run on first down but the other teams know this and usually bring a run blitz or crowd the box often wasting a play for no gain or even a loss. He need to mix it up more on first down, especially when teams are essentially selling out on the first down run.

With all that said, there are mistakes from Teddy, the O-line, the Wr's, the running backs, etc but you really don't want to also be dealing with overcoming your OC's mistakes and some of the mistakes the others make are due to the situations Norv puts them in so he deserves by far the biggest amount of blame.

The best way to think about it is the differences we saw in the ARI game compared to the SEA game. Norv was still way too predictable about running on first down but the game plan was much more about attacking the short and intermediate routes that have been open the past month. ARI tried to play a similar "take away the deep portion of the field" that seattle did, but instead of sending our WR's into the teeth of the defense we attacked where they were vulnerable and enjoyed a lot of success. It was a double whammy of positives for us, that area of the field is also where Teddy is at his best and we saw his confidence spike, he was very decisive with the ball and threw into some tight windows for big time completions.

All throughout the week now we've heard from Peterson and Bridgewater about how this game plan "worked for everybody" and it's pretty clear to me what they are talking about. The quicker passes into the intermediate routes helps the O-line so they don't have to block for 3+ seconds, it helps the WR's get open because they aren't running INTO coverage, it helps Teddy because that's his strength, it helps Peterson because he's getting more than 8 freaking carries and it kept him on the field, even on passing downs.

Teddy hasn't regressed folks, it's not that teams have film on him, it's that they have film on what Norv's been doing and they're focusing on stopping it. That's true for every team but when it doesn't even match the strengths of our personnel, well then it makes the offense look even more pathetic and becomes even easier to stop. It took until the ARI game before we finally saw something different and boy did it work, until norv called one of his long developing plays at the end there...