My thoughts on the offense as a whole

[Mothman]

Curious, was Bennett in the throwing lane to McKinnon? Just because he is open doesn't mean there is a passing lane to him.

He had a passing lane.

To me this is all much ado about nothing. There is probably less than a 1% chance, barring injury, that TB is not the starting QB next year. So no matter how convinced some on here are that he sucks, get ready for another full season. If we really want to crunch what is to be fixed, then we should look at the protection and the play calls.

That implies there's nothing in Bridgewater's game that needs fixing.

I'm under no illusion that Bridgewater won't be the starting Qb next year. that just makes me all the more interested in how he's playing and in seeing progress in his game.

Whatever though, this is all a giant circular argument in my opinion:

Protection Sucks
Abandoned the Run Game too soon
QB Sucks
WR can't get open
Coordinator Sucks

Which one bares more of the blame? Which of the above is causation and which is a result?

They're all issues that need to be addressed so I'm not sure it matters which one bears more of the blame.

[The Breeze]

my question about receivers creating separation remains: Is it solely on the wideouts not doing their job, or is it more of the predictability inherent in Norv's system?..., meaning is it way too easy an offense to prepare for since the offense was designed to face styles of defense that have since evolved?
Then, if it's the former, why the hell aren't guys like Thielen CP and CJ getting more of a crack since the starters can't seem to figure it out? CP was bench because he seemingly was dysfunctional in the offense....well, the whole unit is as such. Where's the consistency in accountability.

Nothing about this makes any sense to me. I'm convinced that Turner is a liability. His teams have done SQUAT in recent memory. What the heck credentials does Scott Turner have?

The line is a mess and TB has some less than desired tendencies(don't forget that he was drafted by Norv and is being coached by Norv"s son)....but I think Turner is finished due to his inability to evolve in a league that requires it in order to thrive. If true, I don't trust this franchise to come to that conclusion until it's too late.

His stature within the coaching hierarchy is really worrisome, as a fan. I think there would be less of an anxiety around the offensive struggles if it didn't look to be a deeply systemic problem (talent vs coaching vs scheme). There seems to be an air of "in Norv we trust", in terms of everything regarding the offense, within this franchise. Maybe that assumption is completely off base...but every other franchise to adopt him as their leader has been burned by it. Whether it's been poor execution, lack of talent or simply Norv's ineptness, the fact remains that his teams have consistently failed to come through at the big moments if they even managed to find themselves in any.

[mansquatch]

That implies there's nothing in Bridgewater's game that needs fixing.

I'm under no illusion that Bridgewater won't be the starting Qb next year. that just makes me all the more interested in how he's playing and in seeing progress in his game.

Which one bares more of the blame? Which of the above is causation and which is a result?

They're all issues that need to be addressed so I'm not sure it matters which one bears more of the blame.[/quote]

Which one is more important is a valid discussion point.

Case in point: If the OL protection is good, then the offensive stats say replace the QB or the WR. Conversely, if the Protection is hell, then it means the QB might be less of the problem.

That is where I'm struggling on Teddy. The OL play is AWFUL. So I have a lot of trouble saying Teddy is terrible when I cannot quantify how much of Teddy's numbers are from him and how much are from bad protection. I can say Teddy is terrible behind this OL, but I'm not sure many QBs in the league would fair much better. So again, is it the Chicken or the Egg?

I say it is much ado about nothing not because I think Teddy doesn't have room to improve but because aside from self flagellation on this message board Teddy is highly, no extremely, likely to be the starter next year. Sure he needs to improve, but really if anything is going to get modified it seems far more likely to be OL, WR, or OC. Those topics are far more interesting to me (not that the board is all about me) than the QB discussion since they will likely see some movement in the off-season and it is an interesting debate as to how much (or if at all) they'll improve the passing game.

So for those two reasons I think getting on Teddy's case right now is premature. If someone wants to take the time and break down 500 plays this season and figure out how many they think Teddy sucked on vs. the other components, then maybe I'll change my mind, but right now it just seems like a black hole to try and comment on one piece vs. the other. The passing offense sucks, but the primary cause remains unknown so it is hard to say this, that, or the other thing needs changing when we can't be certain beyond individual samples that one or the other is the major contributor to the putridness on display.

[mondry]

lol, at what point does it stop becoming cherry picked plays when it's happening 40% of the time? The main thing for me is it's not just the play developing and over 3 seconds a guy finally gets close enough to make teddy uncomfortable and have to do something to avoid it, it's all out jail break chaos half a second into the snap type pressure! This line is bad, and not just worst in the league bad, which they are, but possibly one of the worst Vikings fans have ever seen.

They can't even block well enough for an all time great running back to remain relevant in a competitive football game and before anyone talks about him leading the league in rushing let's focus on when they play GOOD teams because I don't care if they can torch the raiders or the lions! They simply have failed to consistently open holes against a playoff caliber defense. Even against the bad teams it's peterson turning a -2 yard loss into a 3 yard gain and then Peterson exploiting undisciplined bad teams to hit the home run ball when the line rarely manages to do their job well enough to get him to the second level. That's part of the reason why Peterson failed so much in the shotgun, those -2 yard losses remained -2 yard losses when it's strictly on the O-line to block properly.

The things I liked from the article.

You can really see Teddy going through his progressions quickly, this is what made him so impressive last year and his ability to read a defense remains top notch. His elusiveness in the pocket and quick decision making helps him avoid a lot of negative plays. Ponder in these situations would probably have 7-8 sacks a game and 3-4 ints, it's a testament to how good Teddy is that these 2 numbers aren't higher on the year. Carr threw back to back to back int's against the chiefs on sunday with the game on the line and his surrounding circumstances couldn't be much better with a great O-line and solid WR's so it happens to these young QB's but Teddy's done a good job of limiting the multi turnover games despite his awful situation.

Seems like when things go really wrong and it isn't entirely the O-lines fault, Norv's sending the WR's so deep that there's nothing there for Teddy so even when they do block for the league average amount of time it's still not enough in a lot of situations due to norv's concepts.

Also seems like a lot of the times guys do get open, the pressure has already forced teddy into survival mode where escaping pressure from the left and going right takes the WR on the left who may be open out of the play.

It does a good job showing how often our WR's are blanketed, I'd like to say seattle had a great game plan but they really didn't do anything that special and Norv and the O-line completely failed again. What a mess, to abandon the running game when seattle's only rushing 4 guys and dropping everyone else into coverage is a big mistake. Mckinnion is no Peterson but to try and just pass into that coverage is silly.

Essentially this is what I've seen all along, the O-line is the first and foremost biggest problem with norv's deep vertical route concepts being 2nd, the WR's being blanketed as 3rd and then when the stars align and those 3 things don't screw up Teddy still has to make a good play and often is failing to do so because his skill set doesn't really match up with norv turners system in the first place. Tough to overcome for anyone, let alone a 2nd year guy.

The Author mentions using the shotgun more and Mckinnon more which is essentially what they do for most of the second half and didn't even score a point so that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Of course by then the game was out of hand so I think if they tried it from the get go when the scores 0-0 it might help but I also wouldn't hold my breath. It'd have the element of surprise if they came out and tried to pass and run out of the shotgun early and often. Of course then you essentially put your best player on the bench but NE does it all the time, not necessarily with their best player obviously since he isn't a one dimensional running back but if the game plan calls for power running and ball control they use Blount and if it requires a more pass heavy approach Dion Lewis will get 90% of the snaps.

The thing is, they're massive underdogs in this upcoming game, it might be the time to try something crazy. Of course hoping for a miracle that Peterson can go off against a superbowl contender type defense sadly is probably still our best chance of actually winning rather than getting in a shoot out with Palmer when we're down to street free agents and practice squad guys at safety.

[Mothman]

Which one is more important is a valid discussion point.

Case in point: If the OL protection is good, then the offensive stats say replace the QB or the WR. Conversely, if the Protection is hell, then it means the QB might be less of the problem.

That is where I'm struggling on Teddy. The OL play is AWFUL. So I have a lot of trouble saying Teddy is terrible when I cannot quantify how much of Teddy's numbers are from him and how much are from bad protection. I can say Teddy is terrible behind this OL, but I'm not sure many QBs in the league would fair much better. So again, is it the Chicken or the Egg?

I say it is much ado about nothing not because I think Teddy doesn't have room to improve but because aside from self flagellation on this message board Teddy is highly, no extremely, likely to be the starter next year. Sure he needs to improve, but really if anything is going to get modified it seems far more likely to be OL, WR, or OC. Those topics are far more interesting to me (not that the board is all about me) than the QB discussion since they will likely see some movement in the off-season and it is an interesting debate as to how much (or if at all) they'll improve the passing game.

So for those two reasons I think getting on Teddy's case right now is premature. If someone wants to take the time and break down 500 plays this season and figure out how many they think Teddy sucked on vs. the other components, then maybe I'll change my mind, but right now it just seems like a black hole to try and comment on one piece vs. the other. The passing offense sucks, but the primary cause remains unknown so it is hard to say this, that, or the other thing needs changing when we can't be certain beyond individual samples that one or the other is the major contributor to the putridness on display.

I understand what you're saying but I'm not sure how to respond. What seems like a black hole to you seems like a valid discussion point to me but my views on it aren't based primarily on the numbers or even the TV broadcasts so we're essentially looking at different experiences of the team.

[dead_poet]

More analysis discussing this exact same thing.

Film study on Bridgewater shows just how bad Vikings' O-line is

There are four theories as to why the Vikings’ passing game is stuck in the mud. In reality, they’re probably all connected, but the trick is figuring out which is the most responsible for the problems.

1) The offensive line is bad at pass blocking and doesn’t give Teddy Bridgewater enough time to make even simple progressions.

2) The Vikings’ receivers aren’t getting separation and aren’t getting open, so even when Bridgewater has time he has nowhere to throw.

3) Bridgewater himself is being too tentative with the ball and seems to be no more than a game manager who can help you not lose a close game but can’t help you win a tough one.

4) The offensive philosophy and plays designed by Norv Turner and co. aren’t suited to the personnel and are easily counteracted by defenses.

The average fan would probably rank the problems like this: 1) Bridgewater/offensive line tie. 3) Norv Turner. 4) Receivers.

http://www.startribune.com/film-study-o ... 361318921/

[Mothman]

More analysis discussing this exact same thing.

Film study on Bridgewater shows just how bad Vikings' O-line is
http://www.startribune.com/film-study-o ... 361318921/

Thanks for the link but...

The film study absolved Bridgewater of a lot of the blame, which is interesting but not crazy. Any study of one game, with only a handful of plays highlighted, can reach pretty much any conclusion it wants. But FBO is a respected site that does a good job, so let’s assume their conclusions are correct when they say this:

“There aren’t many examples of Bridgewater holding the ball too long this season. There are examples of him holding the ball for a long time, but it’s generally because there are no options open to him and he is trying to create plays either with his feet or as a passer. That’s not to say Bridgewater has been flawless this season, but his issues largely remain confined to his ability to throw the ball deep down the field accurately.”

"Any study of one game, with only a handful of plays highlighted, can reach pretty much any conclusion it wants" but "let’s assume their conclusions are correct"?

Here's what I want to know: how long are writers and analysts going to perpetuate the myth below in the face of evidence that continues to contradict it?

Given all that, though, the most interesting conundrum is whether the Vikings are willing to trade off production from Peterson for more from Bridgewater by putting him back in the shotgun more often. That would mask some of the line’s problems, give Bridgewater and his receivers a little extra time and possibly open up the passing play book a little more — at the expense of Peterson’s comfort level and production, or possibly at the expense of his playing time if McKinnon saw more snaps.

Im tired of dealing with analysis from Fantasyland. I'll repeat what I said up thread: we just saw a game in which the Vikings offense used Peterson very little, spent a lot of time in the shotgun with McKinnon or Asiata and failed to put a single point on the board. Now Rand is reaching the same conclusion the analyst at Football Outsiders reached: they need to do more of the same to ignite the passing game.

Every time they've reverted to this strategy this season, they've lost, usually in a blowout.

[Mothman]

Posted for the stats:

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/12/10/we ... big-mirage

Bridgewater is facing as much criticism as he ever has: In the first seven games this season, 60 percent of his completions went to wideouts. The last five games, just 36 percent went to wideouts.

That has fueled criticism he can’t throw the deep ball consistently. “I’m sure he hears things ... No one likes people saying how bad you are or anything like that,” said coach Mike Zimmer.

“I don’t know that it affects him, but I think we’re all human.”

According to Pro Football Focus, Bridgewater has thrown 38 passes of 20 or more yards in the air. He has completed 10, putting him at No. 29 in rankings as a deep-ball passer.

I don't know if those stats are accurate or not but they're interesting. I think Michael Rand brought up the first one the other day.

The second one explains a lot. Defenses are showing very little respect for the Vikings downfield passing game unless they drop into zone and prevent looks to protect leads. Regardless of the cause, completing only 10 passes that have gone more than 20 yards down the field through the air over 12 games seems like a rather substantial problem for the offense. They're only attempting about 3 of those passes per game. I wonder how that stacks up against other NFL teams?

[mondry]

They're only attempting about 3 of those passes per game. I wonder how that stacks up against other NFL teams?

I'm sure it's EXTREMELY low because either A. We're winning and only throwing the ball 25 times anyway (and that overall number is extremely low) while we pound the rock or B. We're losing horribly and they're playing prevent like Seattle did dropping 7 guys into coverage all day to take away the deep pass.

It sucks to be at such extremes, one way or the other (though obviously it's nice when it's working) but alas, they don't really have much of a choice.

[dkoby]

He IS Norv. You didn't know?

Tell him, Dkoby!

Curses, I've been found out.......

[The Breeze]

I've been firmly in the camp of feeling like they have enough talent at WR. I'm changing my mind. They have maybe 3 guys who are basically the same in terms of what they provide the offense, but no guy that is go to. Diggs may become that guy?
-
Anyway, after watching Fitzgerald again it made me realize how important having that guy is for an entire offense.
Alshon Jeffery, Amari Cooper, AJ whoshis name in Cincy, Demaryius Thomas? etc etc.....Farve used Sydney Rice to bail out his offense drive after drive. Lookit Erin Rogers with Nelson.
I think it's still a legit need if CJ or Diggs is not that guy.

[mondry]

Some more thoughts on the offense as a whole and I think I finally know why I like Teddy so much.

The O-line is the 2nd biggest issue right now and it's not particularly close to Norv but none the less it still deserves it's share of the blame. I've done a lot of analyze on the Cardinals game and the big thing that you'll notice from the game and in the stats is that ARI has an extremely hard time getting consistent pressure and sacks rushing 4 and so they blitzed early and often. Teddy is like Rodgers though, he's better when you blitz him and Teddy was basically brilliant against it. This is why I believe Teddy will be a solid QB for us, guys like Ponder don't do anything particularly good let alone ELITE and tend to just go to "mush" against the blitz (they get sped up and fundamentally weakened, deer in the headlights, etc)

Fast forward to why the O-line being inconsistent / bad is against teams like SEA who can get pressure with just 4, it means teams don't have to blitz to get pressure and they can instead drop 7 guys into coverage. Teddy is much less effective in those situations, granted most QB's are as long as the pressure remains good but if we can create a situation where teams have to blitz us to get pressure that will put Teddy in a situation he thrives in.

Even if they keep Norv, the #1 priority should be improved pass protection next year and that includes CONSISTENCY. This line does provide time but when it doesn't, it's not the "guy slowly gets around um" coverage sack, it's the "get beat off the snap and instantly lose your assignment" kind of pressure. As much as I will be glad to have Loadholt back he's never been consistent in pass blocking either so that's a bit of a conundrum.


It also pertains to the backs though, they aren't bad all the time, I thought they had a solid game against ARI, including Peterson but often enough they fail in blitz pickup or are just ineffective a lot of the time. If they can find an elite pass blocker in the draft with decent hands to replace a zach line or matt asiata that would be a move worth making.

As for Norv I think him and his system are even worse for Teddy than I originally thought. When you talk about needing to force the other team to blitz, I don't think long developing routes and 7 step drops is the way to go for obvious reasons. If it takes your routes longer to develop that just means they have more time for their front 4 to get home without blitzing.

It kind of depends on just how good our O-line could become though, one way to force a team to blitz is if your protections so good that you can go to the intermediate and deep routes and complete them while keeping the pocket clean for the QB. No one wants to give up deep shots down the field so they will try to blitz to force the ball out earlier.

I have doubts that Teddy would be able to inspire enough fear and that our O-line could improve so dramatically to make this the best option but it will be something they have to think about.

As for Norv, he called his best game, granted it was against an opponent that struggles to exploit an area of the game most effective against Norv's offense and a known weakness in our offensive line. I expect Norv will regress against the teams that get better pressure. Despite the good game from him, he made plenty of mistakes like repeatedly running into run stopping blitzs on first down, the silly reverse / fumble, and the last play of the game was extra foolish. This team has enough problems with Teddy missing open guys, the O-line or backs failing to protect properly, the WR drops / fumbles, and so on to have Norv also costing them. The bottom line is he struggles to put his players in a position to succeed and all to often they are trying to overcome that disadvantage on top of just needing more talent (on the O-line specifically) to compete. There's no better example of that then the last play of the game that kept us from even attempting a field goal.

[dead_poet]

From Andrew Garda....

@Andrew_Garda Vikings receivers just cannot get open deep. No ability to get separation. sometimes they just stop running. sometimes it's good defense. across the board it is crazy.

@strokerAce21 @Andrew_Garda ...also seems like TB doesn't have enough time for them to get separation and throw it long. Is that what you've seen in film?

@Andrew_Garda @strokerAce21 well against Cards, not always. Has time, but there's just nowhere to go. That said, yes it's an overall issue,

Re last Arizona play...

@Andrew_Garda Wright would never get out of bounds. Pretty sure that's why TB didn't throw it. Long developing play with a bad oline? Bad play.

[Mothman]

From Andrew Garda....

I haven't watched coaches film of the Cardinals game so perhaps that was the case against them but Garda's comment certainly doesn't reflect what I've seen on film over the majority of this season.

[dead_poet]

I haven't watched coaches film of the Cardinals game so perhaps that was the case against them but Garda's comment certainly doesn't reflect what I've seen on film over the majority of this season.

I just find it fascinating that so many people are coming to this conclusion. I don't think they're absolving Teddy by default but Garda is at least the fourth separate writer that I've read that has said essentially the same thing when it comes to the offense's struggles (in addition to the abysmal pass protection).

I wonder if their standards are different from your own, Jim.