Mothman wrote:I'm not ready to make a prediction yet but i expect this to be a tough, low scoring game. The two teams are almost mirror images of each other so I expect it to be close. The Vikes will have their work cut out for them containing Gurley and Austin, both dynamic playmakers. Gurley's going to to test the run defense like it hasn't been tested since week 1. I'm glad this is a home game. I think the Vikes will need that edge.
I agree, Jim. Home field might just be the difference.
On paper, this is one of the most evenly matched games you'll ever see. The Vikings and Rams are practically mirror images of each other statistically. St. Louis is 30th in the league offensively -- we're one spot ahead at No. 29. They're last in passing -- we're 30th. They're 3rd in rushing at 132 per game -- we're 5th at 131. They're 6th defensively -- we're 7th.
When teams are this evenly matched, it often comes down to special teams -- even those are a wash. The Vikings have a big edge in field goal kicking -- Blair Walsh is 17-of-19 in field goals, with 2-of-2 from 50+, while Greg Zuerlein is just 9-of-15, and 1-for-5 from 50+. However, St. Louis is way ahead in punting -- Johnny Hekker averages a whopping 48.8 with 16 kicks inside the 20, while Jeff Locke averages just 41.2 with 13 balls inside the 20. Neither team has an edge in kickoff returns, while Marcus Sherels and Tavon Austin are practically mirror images in punt return average, and each has one touchdown.
I'm actually optimistic when it comes to the Vikings's ability to contain Tavon Austin in the passing game. Minnesota tends to have more trouble with big wideouts like Calvin Johnson and Alshon Jeffery than they do with small, fast guys like Tavon Austin. However, Gurley scares the snot out of me. He's by far the best RB the Vikings have faced this year, and while our run defense has been OK, we've also struggled with the occasional big play in the running game. Make a mistake with Gurley, and it's just like AP -- 6 points.
I also worry about the Rams' pass rush. They have a very talented D-line. The Vikings looked good Sunday, but that was against a Bears front that wasn't a 10th as good as the Rams.
In short, I have no prediction. The Vikings are at home, which supposedly gives them a 3-point edge. Beyond that, it's probably going to come down to turnovers and/or penalties. Or perhaps Stefon Diggs.