Thoughts Week 6

[Mothman]

If the Vikings are going to contend for anything this season, much less hope for a .500 record, they're going to need to start getting points from the arm of their QB. Bridgewater is on a miserable pace for the year - if things continue at this rate he's due to throw 6-7 TDs by the end of the season. He finished last year with 14.

I brought up the pace the passing game is on during the bye week. It concerns me. After yesterday's game, the Vikes currently have 3 passing TDs, 4 INTs and 15 sacks. Bridgewater is averaging 204.6 yards per game passing but the Vikings net passing yardage (which is what the NFL lists under team the stats) is 179.6 yards per game.

After 5 games, the Vikes are on pace to finish the season with 10 passing TDs, 13 INTs, 48 sacks and 2,834 net yards (3,274 passing yards for TB).

[dead_poet]

@eric_j_thompson Bottom 5 #Vikings PFF ratings Sunday:
5. Stephen -0.6
4. Waynes -0.7
3. Crichton -1.0
2. Greenway -1.6
1. Rhodes -3.0

@eric_j_thompson 18m18 minutes ago
Top 5 #Vikings PFF ratings Sunday:
1. Floyd +4.3
2. Munnerlyn +2.9
3. Kendricks +2.6
4. Joseph +1.6
5. Hunter +1.2

Bottom 5 #Vikings offense PFF ratings Sunday:
5. Harris -1.9
4. Wallace -2.0
3. Peterson -2.1
2. Rudolph -2.6
1. Fusco -4.5

Top 5 #Vikings offense @PFF ratings Sunday:
1. Diggs +3.6
2. Wright +1.4
3. Kalil +1.2
4. Asiata +1.1
5. Thielen, Bridgewater, Line +0.5

[dead_poet]

In his first two starts, Diggs has 13 receptions for 216 yards, the most for any non-replacement player in Vikings history.

Diggs' debut was better than Sammy White (210 yards, 12 catches in 1976) Randy Moss (184, 10 catches) and Percy Harvin (77, 8 catches), all of whom went on to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.

http://www.twincities.com/vikings/ci_28 ... -first-two

[dead_poet]

@christomasson #Vikings PFF offensive line grades Kalil +1.2, Fusco -4.5, Berger -0.4, Harris, -0.9, Clemmings -0.5.

@christomasson Pro Football Focus highest #Vikings grades defense to Floyd 4.3, Munnerlyn 2.6, Kendricks 2.6. Lowest Rhodes -3.0, Greenway -1.6.

[chicagopurple]

we barely beat a bad team that was decimated by injury.
the OL still suxs.
AP cant seem to get the job done without areal OL, at least not this year.
Detroit is probably a better team then KC.....watch out
Calvin Johnson will be a Great test for our secondary

[losperros]

Oh I don't know, maybe the 5 yard routes on 3rd and 10? The "ooh look here we go again" bubble screens on 3rd and 8? The Two deep balls in the last 3 games? The "run up the middle 40 times straight even though it hasn't worked the last 39 times"? The fact that they have an electric player wearing the number 84 and regardless of how he runs routes they cant get him the ball? Not even on a jet sweep or a simple bubble screen? Because they threw a #### screen to Matt Asiata the electrifier!

No misdirection, no deception, the routes are short. They depend way too much on YAC because his scheme is GARBAGE. He can't even see until he has no choice, that he has a rookie that would be in talk for tops in yards in the NFL most likely had he started week 1. The guy flat out blows, thats why people are saying that the playcalling is destroying the offense.

These are the SAME DANG COMPLAINTS that people had against musgrave and his 2 of clubs playcard, and its happening all over again, the difference is zimmer has this defense on point and it's masking alot of what the offense does or doesn't do. Turner needs to go

Wow! Couldn't have said it better myself. Nice job, Boon.

Folks, I'll be the first to admit that the OL has been mostly disappointing. But this team is loaded with talented skill players and Turner can't get TDs out of them?

Very disappointing.

[mansquatch]

The offense is ugly. I listened to the game on the radio vs. watching it, too nice to not be on the water. Offensively it sounded like Teddy was not besieged all day like he was against Denver. So, at least IMO, it sounds like the passing game woes cannot just be attributed to bad protection.

I have to agree with those expressing dis-satisfaction with the OC. It is starting to feel like we are being held back by some of the coaching calls. Another possibility is the coaches do not feel comfortable letting the passing game open up. They may lack confidence in either TB, the pass catchers, or the protection. Hard to know on that one, but it is obvious that something is not working.

[VikingLord]

Oh I don't know, maybe the 5 yard routes on 3rd and 10? The "ooh look here we go again" bubble screens on 3rd and 8? The Two deep balls in the last 3 games? The "run up the middle 40 times straight even though it hasn't worked the last 39 times"? The fact that they have an electric player wearing the number 84 and regardless of how he runs routes they cant get him the ball? Not even on a jet sweep or a simple bubble screen? Because they threw a #### screen to Matt Asiata the electrifier!

Who threw the screen? Was it Turner?

Maybe Norv could improve some things, but I find it hard to believe that every receiver is running a 5 yard route on 3rd and 10. I've seen the run stuffed regardless of where AD goes, and it certainly wasn't Turner out there turning around and running ~7 yards behind the LOS after the initial play was stuffed yesterday, or, for that matter, consistently fumbling the ball (AD has been a HUGE beneficiary of whistles this year).

I'll be willing to focus more on Turner when I see Bridgewater, AD, Wallace, etc., actually executing the plays that are called. If they are doing that and the offense is still not moving and scoring, I'll be a lot more willing to jump on the fire Turner bandwagon. And like I said in an earlier post, I wanted to believe it was the offensive playcalling that led to the debacle against the 49ers and not the failings of key offensive players, but after looking at it more closely it was clear where the fault lay in that game and it wasn't at the feet of Turner or Zimmer for that matter.

Turner can only make up for so much if his key players aren't producing. A conductor can't make a symphony sound better by waving his wand differently. The players have to perform.

[TSonn]

If you didn't watch the game yesterday and know the outcome, you'd think we lost the game after reading the boards around here! Sure, the Chiefs look bad on paper - but it typically comes down to match-ups and the Chiefs played a great game stopping the run which forced us to not be very effective in the second half. Aside from the Bengals blowout, the Chiefs play tight games. We got the win. We also hadn't won a game coming out of the bye in, what, 5 years? I'll take it.

I'm gonna take a little break from the board because it seems like other fans are more positive about our team than this message board lately. I've got Broncos, Packers, and Lions fans that view this Vikings team higher than a lot of people on here. Maybe it's because they don't watch with the same intensity and aren't looking at the details or maybe it's because they aren't as cynical and see the game for what it is. Whatever the reason, I'm enjoying my conversations with them a little more right now. Go Vikes!

[IrishViking]

I brought up the pace the passing game is on during the bye week. It concerns me. After yesterday's game, the Vikes currently have 3 passing TDs, 4 INTs and 15 sacks. Bridgewater is averaging 204.6 yards per game passing but the Vikings net passing yardage (which is what the NFL lists under team the stats) is 179.6 yards per game.

After 5 games, the Vikes are on pace to finish the season with 10 passing TDs, 13 INTs, 48 sacks and 2,834 net yards (3,274 passing yards for TB).

And around a 9-7 to 10-6 record if we are doing flat projections.

If you take his last two games and project based on those (which should be weighted heavier because they are more recent thus more indicitive of current play and trajectory) you end up with 4180 yards 16 tds and 17 interceptions on the year.

A week one year projection for the passing game in general. 3696 yds 0 TDs 16 int.
2 week year projection 3072 yds 8 TDs 8 int.
3 week year projection 2693 yds 5.3 TDs 10.6 int.
4 week year projection 3096 yds 8 TDs 8 int.
5 week year projection 3273 yds 9.6 TDs 12.8 int.

(Adding to date marked game totals, dividing by played games, multiplying by 16.)

A lot of variation in those numbers but lets try this

a week one year projection add on nothing 3696 yds 0 TDs 16 int.
a week two year projection adding week one 2526 yds 15 TDs 1 int.
a week three year projection adding previous 2078 yds 1 TDs 15 int.
a week four year projection adding previous 4002 yds 14 Tds 2 int.
a week five year projection adding previous 3762 yds 14 Tds 26 int.

(take most recent week, multiply by that plus games left to play, add actual totals from week before.)

Personally I like using the second option for projecting total yards on a season. As you can see it really is pretty much useless the first half of the year for TD/INT performance having it leap everywhere.

I cant speak to TD or INT (yet) but i am pretty confident that the upward tread in total yards will continue and we should comfortably be over 3500 for the season if not even 4000.

Play calling is a big issue, the interceptions were heart breaking, I really want Teddy to get his multiple TD game out of the way already this year! But those are things that can and are adjusted. Teddy is smart, he'll learn not to make that throw again. He has already shown the ability to learn and grow. I think the last two games of over 240 yards of production is a good sign. Againstone of the better defenses in the in Denver and he put up just about the League average against the Chiefs.

[Norv Zimmer]

we barely beat a bad team that was decimated by injury.
the OL still suxs.
AP cant seem to get the job done without areal OL, at least not this year.
Detroit is probably a better team then KC.....watch out
Calvin Johnson will be a Great test for our secondary

We already beat detroit handidly, remember?
Remember a bloody broken Stafford? Remember a Calvin Johnson who had a pretty average game and a touchdown that should have been reviewed but wasn't (I thought he was out of bounds). Their rushing offense had like 50 yards.
I am not scared of Detroit, yes they just put up 30 something on THE BEARS! But the bears also put 30 something on them. We have a much better defense than both of those teams. There is no way we give up 30 to Detroit.

Imo I Think Asiata and McKinnon are better for this offense than Peterson is..... Sucks to say it cause I wish he would dominate but I just don't think he can in this offensive scheme.

[Norv Zimmer]

Minnesota is #2 in defense pts per game.
Detroit is 28th
Chicago is 32nd

Both their defenses are terrible.

[Pondering Her Percy]

We already beat detroit handidly, remember?
Remember a bloody broken Stafford? Remember a Calvin Johnson who had a pretty average game and a touchdown that should have been reviewed but wasn't (I thought he was out of bounds). Their rushing offense had like 50 yards.
I am not scared of Detroit, yes they just put up 30 something on THE BEARS! But the bears also put 30 something on them. We have a much better defense than both of those teams. There is no way we give up 30 to Detroit.

Imo I Think Asiata and McKinnon are better for this offense than Peterson is..... Sucks to say it cause I wish he would dominate but I just don't think he can in this offensive scheme.

Completely disagree with your last comment. Before the bye week, AP was leading the NFL in rushing yards and is like 4th now with a bye already under his belt. Bottom line is, KC had the box stacked when AP was out there. They didn't do that vs Asiata because he isn't a threat.

Not sure how you can say a guy that was leading the league in rushing yards all of the sudden isn't a good fit for this offense. Go back and actually watch the replays. The second the ball was in his gut, someone was in the backfield. They keyed on AP and forced Teddy to win that game which he nearly failed to do. Asiata isn't a threat and never will be so why stack the box against him?

[Mothman]

And around a 9-7 to 10-6 record if we are doing flat projections.

That's correct, which might be enough for a wildcard spot and would be their best record since 2012.

If you take his last two games and project based on those (which should be weighted heavier because they are more recent thus more indicitive of current play and trajectory) you end up with 4180 yards 16 tds and 17 interceptions on the year.

A week one year projection for the passing game in general. 3696 yds 0 TDs 16 int.
2 week year projection 3072 yds 8 TDs 8 int.
3 week year projection 2693 yds 5.3 TDs 10.6 int.
4 week year projection 3096 yds 8 TDs 8 int.
5 week year projection 3273 yds 9.6 TDs 12.8 int.

(Adding to date marked game totals, dividing by played games, multiplying by 16.)

A lot of variation in those numbers but lets try this

a week one year projection add on nothing 3696 yds 0 TDs 16 int.
a week two year projection adding week one 2526 yds 15 TDs 1 int.
a week three year projection adding previous 2078 yds 1 TDs 15 int.
a week four year projection adding previous 4002 yds 14 Tds 2 int.
a week five year projection adding previous 3762 yds 14 Tds 26 int.

(take most recent week, multiply by that plus games left to play, add actual totals from week before.)

Personally I like using the second option for projecting total yards on a season. As you can see it really is pretty much useless the first half of the year for TD/INT performance having it leap everywhere.

I cant speak to TD or INT (yet) but i am pretty confident that the upward tread in total yards will continue and we should comfortably be over 3500 for the season if not even 4000.

I appreciate all the work you've done above but honestly, the level of production to date interests me more than projections about what might be coming. When I post about the pace the passing game is on, it's simply to point out that pace and where it will lead IF it continues. It's not meant to be much more than that and I understand there are all sorts of variables at work so it's certainly not meant as a prediction. I'm really not trying to say much more than "Here are the current numbers and they need to get better". If they were on a tear and lighting up the league with their passing game, I'd be saying "here are the numbers and look where they could lead!".

Play calling is a big issue, the interceptions were heart breaking, I really want Teddy to get his multiple TD game out of the way already this year!

I want it to become a regular occurrence, not a singular landmark he gets out of the way. I'm sure you'd like that too so I don't mean it as a criticism.

But those are things that can and are adjusted. Teddy is smart, he'll learn not to make that throw again. He has already shown the ability to learn and grow. I think the last two games of over 240 yards of production is a good sign. Against one of the better defenses in the in Denver and he put up just about the League average against the Chiefs.

I'm much more concerned about team scoring and turnovers than I am about yards. With the exception of Diggs' play, I didn't find the past two games particularly encouraging as far as the passing game goes. DEN and KC dared them to throw and they did, with only moderate success. They need to get more point production out of their offense and their passing game in particular. It's not just a Bridgewater issue, it's an offensive issue.

[Norv Zimmer]

Completely disagree with your last comment. Before the bye week, AP was leading the NFL in rushing yards and is like 4th now with a bye already under his belt. Bottom line is, KC had the box stacked when AP was out there. They didn't do that vs Asiata because he isn't a threat.

Not sure how you can say a guy that was leading the league in rushing yards all of the sudden isn't a good fit for this offense. Go back and actually watch the replays. The second the ball was in his gut, someone was in the backfield. They keyed on AP and forced Teddy to win that game which he nearly failed to do. Asiata isn't a threat and never will be so why stack the box against him?

If a team can completely stack the box to stop peterson to the effect that the Chiefs did and our offense can't do anything something is wrong.
Maybe having asiata in there opens up more running lanes?
Maybe Norv needs to change his playcalling? Peterson is not good at shotgun or pistol formations? Is teddy capable at playing under center? How come pretty much every play is a shotgun?
I am just saying something needs to change.