Is there a possibility of an AD trade?

[PurpleKoolaid]

I think some of you don't realize the greed in the NFL. It's rampant. The owners even magnify it more. This is what I was thinking, and if someone knows how the NFL, and trades works, please chime in.

I don't think AD is going to get more then a 6 game suspension, and nothing in the civil courts will keep him from playing in the NFL. If it does, they would have to charge Rice with attempted murder.

While he is suspended, my hope is, Rickie and the Wilf's, let owners know he is on the market. Now, this season. And he is one player that can instantly give you a shot at a SB, esp. if your Oline is good (heck, even half good).

A NFL owner could maneuver it so they could land AD right now. And gladly eat the millions he comes with. Because he would be with them next year. And even a shot at a SB would leave owners drooling. There are only a few NFL players that can hit a home run as fast as AD.

Even a low first round, or two 2nd rounder's, would be something. Because when we release him, we get nothing. And the teams will be lining up for him. But we need is a team that needs him now. I have no doubt Jerry Jones would do it, if he thought the addition of AD would get him to the SB. They would have the best ground game in the NFL, with Murray and AD. Which would mean less pressure on Rome, which would mean less INT's.

[J. Kapp 11]

I think the plea bargain theory is likely. Just wondering but even if AD does reach a plea bargain settlement, doesn't the NFL still have some say? Given the present negative climate surrounding the NFL, I think it's likely that the league would ban Peterson for the rest of the season.

They might have something to say, but my own opinion is that they won't IF he pleads to a misdemeanor.

And I'll repeat my stance that there's little chance the Vikings will release him. They could have already done that and saved themselves about $15 million. Because of the personal conduct clause in every contract, they are under no obligation to pay the man, yet they are. That sounds to me like an organization that wants him on the field and expects him back soon.

[S197]

The problem is it's hindsight driven as is the case with most investing stories people like to tell. They'll tell you about that 10-bagger they hit on but they won't mention the 20 falling knives they tried to catch. People like to use GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, etc., after the fact but for every homer there's a thousand strikeouts. All a trailing stop does is provide downside protection, however, plenty of people get "stopped out" too early or due to panic. Yeah you could have bought GOOG at $50 and done a trailing stop, which would have probably got you out during 2008 when it fell below $150 or you could have held on as we near $600.

It's difficult to put a proper valuation on a future hall of famer who is still at or near the peak of his career. AD's on field return is pretty easy to predict, any compensation you receive for trading him away is much more difficult. You could end up with a Patterson or you could end up with a Troy Williamson. Or a Mo Claiborne, Justin Blackmon, etc.

I don't know that anyone could have predicted the off-field issues prior to this season, I certainly didn't see anyone bringing it up. It was mainly about age and whether his on-field production would drop. I think the main question is what do the Vikings do now. A trade now seems like "selling low" to me. His cap hit is negligible going forward so really he's playing year-to-year and I don't know if many teams would want to take on his contract. Maybe he continues down the same road or maybe he's able to turn his off-field life around (i.e. Jared Allen). I'm sure more than a few teams would be willing to take a chance on him but it would likely all be lowball offers right now.

[PurpleMustReign]

I will be honest here, I don't think AD goes anywhere. This is different than many of the other situations that are plaguing the NFL, because this wasn't done in anger through a fight, this was a parent who was trying to discipline his kid but went too far. We will see what happens, but i would not be surprised if AD is here for a few years yet.

[Mothman]

EVERYTHING is investing. Everything has relative value that appreciates and depreciates. And the 32 NFL owners and 32 NFL GMs would unanimously disagree with you that football isn't investing. It is all about earning more than you spend.

Not saying you always have to trade a 29-year-old running back, and for every Barry Sanders, there are 2 or 3 backs who peaked in their late 20s while earning a fat paycheck well into their early 30s with steeply declining productivity. The reason last season was a trailing stop for the Vikings is that they are likely not a Super Bowl contender for the next couple years ... Cassel is certainly not a Super Bowl QB, and Bridgewater does not have the luxury of an elite defense like Flacco, Kaepernick or Wilson had to make it to the dance early on. So by the time we *might* be ready for a Super Bowl, AP is in the twilight of the Running Back lifespan. I'd have preferred to get some value for him to build for that day, while there was still value to be had, especially when running backs are a much less valuable commodity than they were when we drafted him.

I understand what you're saying and I know others felt the same way. I also see your point about investing in an abstract sense, and even in a practical sense as you're applying it to football here, but they aren't exactly the same thing, even if the latter involves the former. I just don't see a particularly valuable "lesson learned" here, at least not one the Vikes could apply the next time they have an elite RB who turns 29.

I think the approach you outlined above would have been valid but I think keeping Peterson was an equally valid approach. Setting aside the chaos his career is in now, there's no way to know how effective he might be as a player 3 years down the line or how long it might take the Vikings to get to a Super Bowl, assuming they get there at all. What I do know is that things can turn quickly in the NFL and the path to Super Bowl victory is always different. The Vikes are a young team with some talent that just hired a defensive coach. Who's to say they won't have a top 10 defense in a year or two? Why can't they contend sooner rather than later? Maybe Bridgewater will be incredible! Seattle went from 7-9 to Super Bowl champs over 3 seasons. The '99 Rams went from 4-12 to Super Bowl winners in one season, and did it with a QB starting for the first time in the NFL. That was a wild, Cinderella story and obviously atypical but these examples illustrate how quickly a team's fortunes can change in the NFL and the risks of assuming we know how quickly a team will come together and make a run. I have no idea what will happen or what would have happened over the next few years if Peterson hadn't ended up in his current situation but I do know we can't presume to know too much about when a team *might* be ready for a Super Bowl. It can happen very quickly or take 40 years.

Don't forget, Walter Payton was third in the NFL in rushing and won a Super Bowl with the Bears at the age of 32. He gained over 2000 yards from scrimmage that year. Just two seasons earlier, the Bears were a .500 team.

I think teams have to follow their instincts and keep the players they not only believe can help them win a Super Bowl, but can help them reach the point where they're capable of that accomplishment.

[Norv Zimmer]

Haha delete my previous post. Witch hunt Peterson going o here.

[Mothman]

Haha delete my previous post. Witch hunt Peterson going o here.

Your post was deleted because you violated board rules and you obviously knew you were doing it. It had nothing to do with your views on Peterson or those of anyone else.

[PurpleKoolaid]

It seems quite a few people think AD will stay a Viking. I would rather have that, then a release, that's for sure. I guess my love for the Vikings teams, outweighs what I think of AD right now. I really didn't think he would ever play another down as a Vikings.

I really hope Rickie and the Wilf's keep all the options open. The idea of just releasing him would stink. But if we hold onto him any longer, im afraid another incident will come to light.

[Leafman]

I think the approach you outlined above would have been valid but I think keeping Peterson was an equally valid approach. Setting aside the chaos his career is in now, there's no way to know how effective he might be as a player 3 years down the line or how long it might take the Vikings to get to a Super Bowl, assuming they get there at all. What I do know is that things can turn quickly in the NFL and the path to Super Bowl victory is always different. The Vikes are a young team with some talent that just hired a defensive coach. Who's to say they won't have a top 10 defense in a year or two? Why can't they contend sooner rather than later? Maybe Bridgewater will be incredible! Seattle went from 7-9 to Super Bowl champs over 3 seasons. The '99 Rams went from 4-12 to Super Bowl winners in one season, and did it with a QB starting for the first time in the NFL. That was a wild, Cinderella story and obviously atypical but these examples illustrate how quickly a team's fortunes can change in the NFL and the risks of assuming we know how quickly a team will come together and make a run. I have no idea what will happen or what would have happened over the next few years if Peterson hadn't ended up in his current situation but I do know we can't presume to know too much about when a team *might* be ready for a Super Bowl. It can happen very quickly or take 40 years.

Don't disagree with anything you say here, keeping Peterson is definitely a valid approach. I just think it is a more risky approach from the standpoint of delivering the Lombardi trophy to Minnesota. IF the Vikings have a top 10 defense this or next year and Teddy blossoms quickly, I agree it is best to keep Peterson for a shot at a Super Bowl because he can probably deliver 2-3 more solid years of value.

As a Vikings fan, I LOVE AP ... it has been one of the highlights of my life as a Vikings fan to watch him run every week ... and his is the only non-throwback jersey I own. I just embrace probabilities and the concept of peak value and selling high, and I understand that with 32 teams competing for the Super Bowl, the odds for the Vikings reaching the Super Bowl in 2014 are considerably lower than their chances for reaching it at some point between 2015 and 2024. Which just means I favor unloading players like Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and AP before their decline becomes apparent ... even if that means missing out on a couple more years of potentially great productivity.

The argument against this is always "why trade value-you-know versus potential value that may never materialize?" And the answer is because most examples of championship teams are those built via draft picks and other young players acquired on the front end of their primes rather than the back end ... even the Saints and Rams acquired their key veterans on the front end of their primes, while the key players of every other Super Bowl champ I can think of over the last 25 years were draft picks or acquired very early in their careers. Accumulating as much potential as possible allows you to absorb the impact of the inevitable draft "misses".

A key consideration is depth, and I acknowledge we haven't had the depth at the position to consider trading AP, mainly because our defense, and in particular our secondary, has been such a shambles that we've needed to spend a chunk of our high draft picks trying to address those holes.

LEAFMAN THE PURPLE FAN

[Pseudo Everything]

Surprised this keeps coming come. Look at his contract. No one is going to take those huge cap charges ($15M in 2015) and that was true prior to his indictment.

Ziggy needs to start selling those PSLs for the new stadium. If ownership thinks having AD on the roster will hinder those sales then he's probably played his last game as a Viking.

[PurpleKoolaid]

Surprised this keeps coming come. Look at his contract. No one is going to take those huge cap charges ($15M in 2015) and that was true prior to his indictment.

Ziggy needs to start selling those PSLs for the new stadium. If ownership thinks having AD on the roster will hinder those sales then he's probably played his last game as a Viking.

Im not sure about how the cap would look for whatever team wants him. But if you think 15 mil is a big thing to some of these owners, well, it isn't. It would be a move similar to what we did with Favre. Look how close we came.

[Mothman]

Don't disagree with anything you say here, keeping Peterson is definitely a valid approach. I just think it is a more risky approach from the standpoint of delivering the Lombardi trophy to Minnesota. IF the Vikings have a top 10 defense this or next year and Teddy blossoms quickly, I agree it is best to keep Peterson for a shot at a Super Bowl because he can probably deliver 2-3 more solid years of value.

As a Vikings fan, I LOVE AP ... it has been one of the highlights of my life as a Vikings fan to watch him run every week ... and his is the only non-throwback jersey I own. I just embrace probabilities and the concept of peak value and selling high, and I understand that with 32 teams competing for the Super Bowl, the odds for the Vikings reaching the Super Bowl in 2014 are considerably lower than their chances for reaching it at some point between 2015 and 2024. Which just means I favor unloading players like Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and AP before their decline becomes apparent ... even if that means missing out on a couple more years of potentially great productivity.

The argument against this is always "why trade value-you-know versus potential value that may never materialize?" And the answer is because most examples of championship teams are those built via draft picks and other young players acquired on the front end of their primes rather than the back end ... even the Saints and Rams acquired their key veterans on the front end of their primes, while the key players of every other Super Bowl champ I can think of over the last 25 years were draft picks or acquired very early in their careers. Accumulating as much potential as possible allows you to absorb the impact of the inevitable draft "misses".

I understand what you're saying about risk. I guess that's part of what makes winning a Super Bowl so difficult. How does a team find that sweet spot, that proper mix of veteran leadership and young talent? I agree that most championship teams are built through the draft and possess some excellent young players in their primes but it seems to me that those teams usually tend to have some older veteran stars in key roles as well, players like Payton, Bettis, Ray Lewis, Warren Sapp, Darren Sharper, etc. So, the question becomes who do you keep in those veteran roles and how long? Pursuing youth too hard could lead to a never-ending cycle of development but never attaining the Lombardi trophy. Hanging onto veterans too long can lead to diminishing returns and even bottoming out, which I think is what happened to the Vikes in the seasons following 2009. It's a balancing act.

A player like AD is particularly difficult to assess in this regard because he is so clearly an elite, and thus atypical, talent.

A key consideration is depth, and I acknowledge we haven't had the depth at the position to consider trading AP, mainly because our defense, and in particular our secondary, has been such a shambles that we've needed to spend a chunk of our high draft picks trying to address those holes.

Excellent point.

[Pseudo Everything]

Im not sure about how the cap would look for whatever team wants him. But if you think 15 mil is a big thing to some of these owners, well, it isn't. It would be a move similar to what we did with Favre. Look how close we came.

Only four teams have the cap space today to absorb Peterson's contract (Jags, Jets, Browns and Eagles). No other RB has a contract with a cap charge over $10M (McCoy is next highest at $9M).

We're talking about a RB that will turn 30 next March. Not a Pro Bowl / future Hall of Fame QB like Favre. A QB is going to have disproportionate influence on a team and that's a position where age isn't nearly as much a factor as it is for RB.

Chris Johnson signed a 4 year $53M contract with the Titans in 2011. Two years later he was released. Can't think of any highly paid RB that's been traded in the last several years. Trent Richardson was under his rookie contract when traded and his cap charge is peanuts.

[jackal]

Houston might want him but they would have to redo his contract for sure

[Spawn]

Hope not, he's still my favorite player.