Inside Slant: An alternative to longer XPs

[dead_poet]

In the end, however, is a play with a 94.3 percent success rate substantially more entertaining than one that is 99.8, as the NFL extra point was in 2013? You can't sell me on that, and for at least some fans it could prove more of an annoyance than anything else. That's why the idea of a shorter two-point conversion seems a more intriguing option.

You might not think there is much difference between a play from the 1- or the 2-yard line, but in NFL terms there is. Since the start of the 2001 season, which is as far back as ESPN Stats & Information records on it go, the conversion rate of two-point plays from the 1-yard line is 65.5 percent. From the 2, it's 46.9 percent. At that rate of success, more coaches probably would choose it over an extra point.

"I think if they go to the 1," McCarthy said, "the two-point conversion [attempts] will go up significantly. … The run opportunity and the pass opportunity are both in play from the 2 and the 1, but running from the 2 is different than running from the 1."

In this scenario, you've taken the post-touchdown success rate from 99.8 to 65.5. The ultimate entertainment goal for this experiment, as Colts punter and occasional place-kicker Pat McAfee said, should be to create a genuine "chance for failure." The NFL could achieve that -- as well as an infusion of more sophisticated and nuanced strategy -- with a shorter two-point conversion. Hopefully, the 33-yard extra point experiment will be the start of a journey to get us there.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/ ... longer-xps

[Eli]

Sure, it may raise the entertainment value, but what kind of impact would a 66% success rate on 2 point conversion make? It would be akin to making TDs worth 7 points or field goals worth 4. It's not something you can change to that degree.

[Hunter Morrow]

If it really would succeed that much, you'd never see an extra point attempt. You might as well just make them mandatory at that point.

[Reignman]

If it really would succeed that much, you'd never see an extra point attempt. You might as well just make them mandatory at that point.

I disagree. The league as a whole has always been pretty conservative. For example, you rarely see teams go for it on 4th n 1, unless they're in that long FG/short punt range. I see no difference between 4th n 1 and a 2 point conversion from the 1 yard line in terms of success rate. I think coaches would still only go for 2's if they absolutely had to.