Crystal Ball Projections

[Mothman]

Michael Johnson - DL - Bengals

The Cincinnati Enquirer's "gut" feeling is that free agent DE Michael Johnson lands in Minnesota.

He'd be reuniting with ex-Bengals DC Mike Zimmer, who's now the Vikings' head coach. Defensive end is a big need in Minnesota with Jared Allen set to walk in free agency. In an ideal world, the Vikes would add Johnson, re-sign Everson Griffen, and place them in a three-man rotation along with LE Brian Robison.
Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

Why does that not sound like an "ideal world" to me at all?

Allen's had 11+ sacks every season he's been a Viking and has often had more than that. He's had 50+ tackles every year but one and for most of his tenure as a Viking, he's been one of the premier players at his position. Johnson has had over 50 tackles in each of the last two years as well but he's had one double digit sack season in his pro career and last season, in a contract year, he had 3.5 sacks. Now, he was part of a good defense so I don't mean to imply he's a bad player but going from Robison, Allen and Griffen to Robison, Johnson and Griffen sounds to me like a net loss at RDE for the Vikings unless one of the latter two really steps up in a big way.

I guess I don't understand why so many people seem excited about the prospect of Johnson joining the Vikings. That seems to me like a return to the pre-Allen days at RDE, when we spent every season wishing the Vikings could find an impact rusher again.

Am I missing something?

[dead_poet]

Why does that not sound like an "ideal world" to me at all?

Allen's had 11+ sacks every season he's been a Viking and has often had more than that. He's had 50+ tackles every year but one and for most of his tenure as a Viking, he's been one of the premier players at his position. Johnson has had over 50 tackles in each of the last two years as well but he's had one double digit sack season in his pro career and last season, in a contract year, he had 3.5 sacks. Now, he was part of a good defense so I don't mean to imply he's a bad player but going from Robison, Allen and Griffen to Robison, Johnson and Griffen sounds to me like a net loss at RDE for the Vikings unless one of the latter two really steps up in a big way.

I guess I don't understand why so many people seem excited about the prospect of Johnson joining the Vikings. That seems to me like a return to the pre-Allen days at RDE, when we spent every season wishing the Vikings could find an impact rusher again.

Am I missing something?

I think people are really keying in on his potential (a common word associated with him apparently, after reading the very good/depressing article on him you posted) and 11.5 sacks last season (plus 3.5 this season with 1 INT, 2 FF and 10 PDs), using that and the fact he's only 27 as an indicator he's going to be a very productive pass rusher. Obviously there are some flags and reasons for pause. But he didn't necessarily luck into last season's 11.5. From what I've read he's also above average in run defense. Either way you slice it, however, with the exit of Allen, we'll be struggling a bit more to apply pressure from a talent perspective. Say what you will about Allen, but it's hard to match his effort and consistency over the years.

[Mothman]

I think people are really keying in on his potential (a common word associated with him apparently, after reading the very good/depressing article on him you posted) and 11.5 sacks last season (plus 3.5 this season with 1 INT, 2 FF and 10 PDs), using that and the fact he's only 27 as an indicator he's going to be a very productive pass rusher. Obviously there are some flags and reasons for pause. But he didn't necessarily luck into last season's 11.5. From what I've read he's also above average in run defense. Either way you slice it, however, with the exit of Allen, we'll be struggling a bit more to apply pressure from a talent perspective. Say what you will about Allen, but it's hard to match his effort and consistency over the years.

Well said!

[frosted]

Why does that not sound like an "ideal world" to me at all?

Allen's had 11+ sacks every season he's been a Viking and has often had more than that. He's had 50+ tackles every year but one and for most of his tenure as a Viking, he's been one of the premier players at his position. Johnson has had over 50 tackles in each of the last two years as well but he's had one double digit sack season in his pro career and last season, in a contract year, he had 3.5 sacks. Now, he was part of a good defense so I don't mean to imply he's a bad player but going from Robison, Allen and Griffen to Robison, Johnson and Griffen sounds to me like a net loss at RDE for the Vikings unless one of the latter two really steps up in a big way.

I guess I don't understand why so many people seem excited about the prospect of Johnson joining the Vikings. That seems to me like a return to the pre-Allen days at RDE, when we spent every season wishing the Vikings could find an impact rusher again.

Am I missing something?

In my humble opinion, Johnson is a more complete player and would have a greater overall positive impact on the defense than Allen would.

Just my opinion, but I can't stomach watching Allen fail time and time again in run defense. His sacks didn't come close to making up for how poorly he played the run last season. I didn't think he was all that impactful as a pass rusher anymore either, to be honest. He was invisible in that regard for many games last season.

I could be way off base with my assessment of Johnson, I was only able to see a handful of Bengals games the last two seasons, but he always stood out to me. I am going off of that, as well as off of advanced metrics, which I understand not everyone believes in.

I am fairly confident in my assessment of JA, however. This post is more of an indictment of him than support for Johnson.

All that said..again..just my opinion.

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[dead_poet]

An interesting article on Allen prior to this season: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... red-allen/

From an article after the season...

Out of 51 defensive ends rated by Pro Football Focus in a 4-3 scheme, Allen ranks as No. 32 in overall production. He was 25th out of 62 last season and fifth out of 67 in 2011, when his 22 sacks tied ex-Jet Mark Gastineau for second in league history, a half-sack behind ex-Giant Michael Strahan.

http://bit.ly/1cqHgDk

I guess I'm not as down on Allen as some are. I think perspective is needed and his 22 sacks in 2011 raised expectations a bit too high for him and we expect him to be a dominant force on every snap, no matter who he's lining up against. Injuries and the fact that he's 32 has played a part in his losing a step and contributed to his "lack of production." He's still an asset as far as I'm concerned. I'd love for the Vikings to re-sign him to a two-year contract where he's playing on reduced snaps, though that's not something he seems to be inclined to do. If he can be a 70-80% snaps guy, I think he has the ability to continue to be disruptive for the right team.

[HardcoreVikesFan]

Don't get me wrong, I would love Jared Allen back here, but, it just depends on the price. I would love Michael Johnson here as well, but, it depends on the price. Honestly, if it comes down to it, if Allen and Johnson cost about the same, I would almost want Allen back instead of Johnson. But that is just me.

[frosted]

Don't get me wrong, I would love Jared Allen back here, but, it just depends on the price. I would love Michael Johnson here as well, but, it depends on the price. Honestly, if it comes down to it, if Allen and Johnson cost about the same, I would almost want Allen back instead of Johnson. But that is just me.

There is a question of age as well.

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[KSViking]

I would very much like to get Allen back at a reduced price, but not sure that is possible right now. I guess it depends what he finds in free agency. As far as Johnson goes, since Zimmer was his DC the last few years, I think that if he saw something in him that he wants on this team, he will make it happen. If he didn't see anything special, we won't make any large offers to get him to come here. I guess I have to trust Zimmer on that one.

[PurpleMustReign]

I would very much like to get Allen back at a reduced price, but not sure that is possible right now. I guess it depends what he finds in free agency. As far as Johnson goes, since Zimmer was his DC the last few years, I think that if he saw something in him that he wants on this team, he will make it happen. If he didn't see anything special, we won't make any large offers to get him to come here. I guess I have to trust Zimmer on that one.

I'd rather have Williams back than Allen.

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[frosted]

I'd rather have Williams back than Allen.

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I agree with that.

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[mondry]

If he can be a 70-80% snaps guy, I think he has the ability to continue to be disruptive for the right team.

That seems to be the problem though, he's always been after the record and always wants 100% of the snaps. I think someone will be willing to give him more than we do, both in snaps AND money. If not, then sure, at half the salary for 70% of the snaps he'd be alright.

[frosted]

That seems to be the problem though, he's always been after the record and always wants 100% of the snaps. I think someone will be willing to give him more than we do, both in snaps AND money. If not, then sure, at half the salary for 70% of the snaps he'd be alright.

I have to say..every time I see your avatar I ROFL. Haha. Good stuff.