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For sure, but College success =/= NFL success. I don't think Boyd is good enough (I feel he lacks the correct skill set) to be a consistent NFL starting QB.Pondering Her Percy wrote: He might not go until the 3rd or later but either way, he's been one of the most consistent QBs in college football from year to year
80 PurplePride 84 wrote:I used to like Boyd but I've kinda soured on him ever since he was exposed against Florida St. earlier this year.
He's went from Top 10 pick to mid-late round pick in just like 3 months.
Right I'm not saying its equal I'm just saying, he's been more consistent than any other QB in this draft over his careerfrosted21 wrote: For sure, but College success =/= NFL success. I don't think Boyd is good enough (I feel he lacks the correct skill set) to be a consistent NFL starting QB.
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I will be beyond disappointed if Spielman spends the #8 pick on JG. He's a draft rocket. He's Troy Williamson playing QB. If Spielman puts his job security in the hands of a guy who wasn't even in the national draft picture at the start of the season then he deserves what he gets IMHO. And just because the Vikings reached in the past with guys like Ponder and Jackson doesn't mean they are doomed to repeat their errors. This isn't Dante's Inferno, at least not quite yet (although honestly, watching this team at times does make me wonder whether I've been prematurely confined to some level of h3ll). Taking JG at #8 is worse than trading up to get another one of the "top" QB's in this draft IMHO. Not only does Spielman get no real help at QB OR anywhere else on the team with that high pick, but he's now in a position where the new coach is going to be under intense pressure to start a guy who will be lucky to be a journeyman backup over his entire career.Skol_Zoss wrote:
Rd 1, 8th Pick
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
This sounds crazy now, but if his draft stock continues to increase as fast as it has the past month, he will be the pick. Rumors are that this may be Spielman's guy. If it's true, then he's going all-in and will put his job security in the hands of this kid's play-making ability. This will be seen as a reach by many, but so was Christian Ponder and Tarvaris Jackson. But Spielman may not want to mess around on this one and risk trading down or trading back into the first round and not land him. Garoppolo had a great performance in the Shrine game and coaches are saying he has the quickest release of any top QB prospect. Many expect him to have a terrific game in the Senior Bowl.
I think that's an apples and oranges comparison. Williamson rose primarily because of his attributes as an athlete but he wasn't an extremely productive college player. Garoppolo was extremely productive in college, breaking school records set by a QB who has been starting in the NFL for some time now.VikingLord wrote:I will be beyond disappointed if Spielman spends the #8 pick on JG. He's a draft rocket. He's Troy Williamson playing QB.
Whose national draft picture? The draft picture painted by a bunch of internet draft gurus? If he was absent from that picture, it speaks more to how they go about what they do than to Garoppolo's ability. I guarantee some NFL teams and scouts had him on their radar. He's been discussed on Chicago sports talk radio shows for months so he was even on my radar! Dismissing him because he wasn't in the always changing, usually inaccurate mock draft picture during the season is ridiculous. A player should be judged on his merits.If Spielman puts his job security in the hands of a guy who wasn't even in the national draft picture at the start of the season...
You make some good points about the pressure that would put on the coaching staff and the probable lack of immediate help but what makes you so certain Garappolo "will be lucky to be a journeyman backup over his entire career"?This isn't Dante's Inferno, at least not quite yet (although honestly, watching this team at times does make me wonder whether I've been prematurely confined to some level of h3ll). Taking JG at #8 is worse than trading up to get another one of the "top" QB's in this draft IMHO. Not only does Spielman get no real help at QB OR anywhere else on the team with that high pick, but he's now in a position where the new coach is going to be under intense pressure to start a guy who will be lucky to be a journeyman backup over his entire career.
I agree that there's more than one way to address the problem but how, exactly, do you expect the Vikings to swing a trade for a high first round pick in 2015 while retaining a first round pick this year? What would they be giving up for that 2015 pick?Here's a thought - try to swing a trade with a team likely to pick high in the 1st next year to get their 1st next year. Hundley, Mariota, Winston, and Petty will all be in that draft class. That's a pretty strong class at the top, and with 2 higher 1sts Spielman would have the ammunition to move up and get any of them. Instead of forcing #8 this year or forcing QB at all, concede that it has to be a solid veteran option at QB in 2014 and position the team to make a play for a top QB prospect in the 2015 draft that is likely to be a stronger class anyway.
There are more ways to go about solving this problem than making another reach. Hopefully Spielman is open to considering those options.
Breaking school records at Nothern Illinois isn't exactly impressive IMHO, but the fact the prior guy has managed to make a somewhat uneven leap to the pros does add some legitimacy to what you're saying.Mothman wrote: I think that's an apples and oranges comparison. Williamson rose primarily because of his attributes as an athlete but he wasn't an extremely productive college player. Garoppolo was extremely productive in college, breaking school records set by a QB who has been starting in the NFL for some time now.
OK, but isn't it equally ridiculous to say that the collective wisdom of a large group of people is so far off? I mean, some of these people put a lot of time and effort into their assessments. To suggest that they *completely* missed a legit QB prospect who is being talked up now as a 1st round prospect defies belief. And if he's on Chicago sports talk radio that's great, but once again, that's local to Chicago and I doubt the local sports talk radio has just had Garappolo on their segments.Mothman wrote: Whose national draft picture? The draft picture painted by a bunch of internet draft gurus? If he was absent from that picture, it speaks more to how they go about what they do than to Garoppolo's ability. I guarantee some NFL teams and scouts had him on their radar. He's been discussed on Chicago sports talk radio shows for months so he was even on my radar! Dismissing him because he wasn't in the always changing, usually inaccurate mock draft picture during the season is ridiculous. A player should be judged on his merits.
Nobody is dismissing him. I said he's probably a legit 4th rounder. I just don't think he merits a higher pick, and drafting him at #8 is beyond optimism.Mothman wrote: None of that is an endorsement of Garoppolo as the 8th pick. That would definitely be a risky move. All I'm trying to say is that dismissing him because he's a draft rocket makes no sense. He's a draft rocket for a reason. He's been a terrific player. The big question is how well he will do against a much, much higher level of competition.
I'm going off the tape I've seen of him and the reality that most QB's bust, even the ones who have much more going for them coming into the pros than JG. I don't see a particularly strong arm, great field vision, or great escapability. I see a guy who will more than likely struggle against bigger, faster players.Mothman wrote: You make some good points about the pressure that would put on the coaching staff and the probable lack of immediate help but what makes you so certain Garappolo "will be lucky to be a journeyman backup over his entire career"?
Have to give something to get something. It would be Spielman's job to figure out what to give in order to get. My guess is it would cost him at least his 2nd rounder to get a team's first next year, and maybe more.Mothman wrote: I agree that there's more than one way to address the problem but how, exactly, do you expect the Vikings to swing a trade for a high first round pick in 2015 while retaining a first round pick this year? What would they be giving up for that 2015 pick?
Perhaps I'm mis-reading you but you seem to be implying that any selection of a QB in this draft will be "forcing" a pick. As for next year's draft having a stronger QB class... by this time next year, it may not look stronger. Those players all have another season to play and sometimes the bloom comes off the rose a little.
There's definitely no need to force anything but it's worth keeping in mind that the draft hype machine is just getting revved up. By the time it runs it's course and we get to the actual draft in May, some of the QBs that are predicted to go in the top 10 might fall well out of that range or even out of the first round. Risers sometimes rise and then fall. The draft picture will continue to take shape for months before the actual draft. The Senior Bowl hasn't even been played yet. The combine, personal workouts, etc. are all still ahead.
Hey! As a Northern Illinois alum and fan, I should take offense to that! However, I won't since Garoppolo went to Eastern Illinois.VikingLord wrote:Breaking school records at Nothern Illinois isn't exactly impressive IMHO, but the fact the prior guy has managed to make a somewhat uneven leap to the pros does add some legitimacy to what you're saying.
If you re-read what I wrote, that isn't what I suggested. Note that I wrote, "IF he was absent from that picture" because I had my doubts about that and again, what comprises the "national draft picture"? I'd argue that what NFL teams and scouts are doing is inarguably a part of that picture and I'm not sure why the picture at the start of the season is particularly relevant when what occurs during the season always has a major impact on the ultimate draft picture. However, I just did a cursory search and it took little effort to find clear evidence that Garoppalo was indeed a part of the national scouting/draft picture both before and during the season. Gil Brandt listed Garoppolo #48 on his list of top seniors back in early August.OK, but isn't it equally ridiculous to say that the collective wisdom of a large group of people is so far off? I mean, some of these people put a lot of time and effort into their assessments. To suggest that they *completely* missed a legit QB prospect who is being talked up now as a 1st round prospect defies belief.
You also said he "will be lucky to be a journeyman backup over his entire career". At the very least, a statement like that dismisses any chance he has of becoming a good starting QB.Nobody is dismissing him. I said he's probably a legit 4th rounder.
As I wrote above, it would be a risky move to select him at #8 and I'm not endorsing that move.Look at what even you said here. "The big question is how well he will do against a much, much higher level of competition." Do you really think it's wise to spend the #8 pick in the draft to find the answer to that question? Shouldn't Spielman be looking for the best player at #8 who has already answered as many questions about what the Vikings will get from that player as possible *while* he's in the college ranks?
It's not like he'll be racing them or blocking them. He's 6' 2", 219 lbs, not exactly diminutive for an NFL QB. His arm is fine. It doesn't take an elite arm to succeed in the NFL. He's considered a strong prospect in several areas that are key to NFL success: accuracy, decision-making, quick release, ability to process what he's seeing quickly, etc.I'm going off the tape I've seen of him and the reality that most QB's bust, even the ones who have much more going for them coming into the pros than JG. I don't see a particularly strong arm, great field vision, or great escapability. I see a guy who will more than likely struggle against bigger, faster players.
"Maybe" more? No team is going to give up their first round pick in this draft for the Vikings second round pick in 2015.Have to give something to get something. It would be Spielman's job to figure out what to give in order to get. My guess is it would cost him at least his 2nd rounder to get a team's first next year, and maybe more.
It happens all the time...You are mis-reading me. There are 2 QB's in this draft worth that #8 pick - Bridgewater and Manziel. The others being talked about at that slot have major unanswered questions around them and would be massive reaches (those being Bortles, Carr, and now, apparently, Garrapolo). Every mock draft I've seen that has Carr falling past the Vikings doesn't have the dude in the 1st round. He plummets right through it. So yeah, IMHO, there is a real risk that Spielman forces QB at #8, and if he does, then he'll get to see firsthand the answers to those unanswered questions. This time, though, I doubt he escapes with his job as he did after blowing the Ponder pick, so hopefully that is enough of a deterrent. We'll all see.
As far as next year's QB class is concerned, the bloom would have to fall pretty far off the rose for me to believe that none of the four QB's I mentioned is going to have a knockout season next year, especially given that 2 of them were being touted as high 1st rounders had they come out this year.
So a few national draftniks had him on the radar, albeit back in the middle of the pack. That's hardly a counter to my point but I'll concede he didn't "come out of nowhere".Mothman wrote: He didn't just come out of nowhere.
Its a true statement as far as I'm concerned. If Garrapolo ends up being a significant starter in the pros remind me to come on here and say I was wrong. And by significant I mean a guy a team or teams want as a starter beyond his rookie deal.Mothman wrote: You also said he "will be lucky to be a journeyman backup over his entire career". At the very least, a statement like that dismisses any chance he has of becoming a good starting QB.
I just don't see it, but he's done well against a low level of competition. I'll concede that as well. If that leads you to believe he can translate his game to the pros, believe what you want. I would not consider using a pick inside of the first 3 rounds on such a prospect without a more definitive answer to that question.Mothman wrote: It's not like he'll be racing them or blocking them. He's 6' 2", 219 lbs, not exactly diminutive for an NFL QB. His arm is fine. It doesn't take an elite arm to succeed in the NFL. He's considered a strong prospect in several areas that are key to NFL success: accuracy, decision-making, quick release, ability to process what he's seeing quickly, etc.
Spielman is the GM. He can figure it out.Mothman wrote: "Maybe" more? No team is going to give up their first round pick in this draft for the Vikings second round pick in 2015.
To 4 different guys in the same year? Unlikely. What is far more likely is that one or two of them will rise above the rest and end up clearly coveted as the top QB's.Mothman wrote: It happens all the time...
No offense, but it seems like a very clear counter to your point. He was either in the national draft picture at the start of the season or he wasn't and a cursory search revealed that he's been in it since at least August. I wasn't trying to put together a comprehensive list of sources to indicate that. It seemed unnecessary. It doesn't get much more national than NFL.com.VikingLord wrote:So a few national draftniks had him on the radar, albeit back in the middle of the pack. That's hardly a counter to my point but I'll concede he didn't "come out of nowhere".
It's not about what I believe. I have absolutely no idea if he can translate his game to the pros. I just intend to keep an open mind and not dismiss his chances to succeed. That's the point I'm trying to make here.I just don't see it, but he's done well against a low level of competition. I'll concede that as well. If that leads you to believe he can translate his game to the pros, believe what you want.
All of which will guarantee absolutely nothing, including whether the Vikings can actually draft one of them. It's easy to say the team needs to position themselves to select one but how, exactly, is that done? Throw games? Make a massive trade to move up? I know, I know... "Spielman is the GM. He can figure it out."To 4 different guys in the same year? Unlikely. What is far more likely is that one or two of them will rise above the rest and end up clearly coveted as the top QB's.
To be clear, I was originally referring to JG as a top prospect at QB. Now we're getting into nitpicking. I conceded your point he was in the national picture. He was not in the picture as a top prospect at QB. That has happened in the last 2 months or so as far as I can tell.Mothman wrote: No offense, but it seems like a very clear counter to your point. He was either in the national draft picture at the start of the season or he wasn't and a cursory search revealed that he's been in it since at least August. I wasn't trying to put together a comprehensive list of sources to indicate that. It seemed unnecessary. It doesn't get much more national than NFL.com.
Well, the point you're trying to make here is the same exact point one could have made regarding Ponder, Tarvaris Jackson, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, or any number of other guys coming out with some hype. At some point of watching them and what they do and don't do well in college one can begin to make some educated guesses about what they will and won't do as pros.Mothman wrote: It's not about what I believe. I have absolutely no idea if he can translate his game to the pros. I just intend to keep an open mind and not dismiss his chances to succeed. That's the point I'm trying to make here.
If Spielman is convinced he must find his answer at QB in the draft, and if a team below me wanted to trade up, I'd swap my first this year for their 2nd or 3rd this year (depending on how far they're moving up) and 1st next year unless I really wanted Manziel or Bridgewater, in which case I'd move heaven and earth to move up to #2 and get at least one of them. Assuming I don't move up to #2 to get one this year, I then have 2 1st's next year I can deal to make a move up. No guarantees, but it puts me in a better position to get one of the guys coming out next year if I really like him.Mothman wrote: All of which will guarantee absolutely nothing, including whether the Vikings can actually draft one of them. It's easy to say the team needs to position themselves to select one but how, exactly, is that done? Throw games? Make a massive trade to move up? I know, I know... "Spielman is the GM. He can figure it out."
That's correct. He has emerged asa top prospect over the past few months.VikingLord wrote:To be clear, I was originally referring to JG as a top prospect at QB. Now we're getting into nitpicking. I conceded your point he was in the national picture. He was not in the picture as a top prospect at QB. That has happened in the last 2 months or so as far as I can tell.
Yes, and those guesses are guesses, which is why I try to keep an open mind and encourage others to do likewise.Well, the point you're trying to make here is the same exact point one could have made regarding Ponder, Tarvaris Jackson, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, or any number of other guys coming out with some hype. At some point of watching them and what they do and don't do well in college one can begin to make some educated guesses about what they will and won't do as pros.
I'm not conceding it to nearly the degree that you're implying. I just said he'd be a risky pick and frankly, I think that's enough. I feel the whole concept of a player being a huge reach is highly subjective. Consider Nick Foles, for example. He was projected by some as a fifth or sixth rounder, others thought he could go in the third and that's where he was selected. He's played more like the way people hope and expect a first round QB to play. As a projected mid-round pick was he a huge reach in the third? Does the fact that someone thought he could go in the third mean he wasn't a reach?At least you agree JG would be a huge reach at #8, so at least tacitly you're conceding this point.
Okay, but how likely is it that there's a player someone will want badly enough at #8 this year to make the kind of trade you're proposing? It's easy to create hypothetical trade situations that would give the Vikings all the ammo they need to go a player they want in 2015 but the market has to be there.If Spielman is convinced he must find his answer at QB in the draft, and if a team below me wanted to trade up, I'd swap my first this year for their 2nd or 3rd this year (depending on how far they're moving up) and 1st next year unless I really wanted Manziel or Bridgewater, in which case I'd move heaven and earth to move up to #2 and get at least one of them. Assuming I don't move up to #2 to get one this year, I then have 2 1st's next year I can deal to make a move up. No guarantees, but it puts me in a better position to get one of the guys coming out next year if I really like him.
I'd say he proved it doesn't work very well and Childress demonstrated that again. You're talking about using the draft "as it's intended". How is it intended to be used? As far as I can tell, it's only real purpose is as a method of acquiring players and building a team. Consequently, isn't selecting and developing a QB using the draft exactly as it's intended to be used?Another option is to ply the veteran FA market and just keep cycling through until the right situation presents itself in the draft. Take a page out of Dennis Green's book and just make sure the QB position is competent while continuing to use the draft as its intended. That's how I would go about it and Green proved it could work.
Well, after watching the Vikings move up to select Tarvaris Jackson and try to force him, then take Christian Ponder at #12 and try to force him, I feel the whole concept of a player being a huge reach has been made apparent to everyone, including you.Mothman wrote: I feel the whole concept of a player being a huge reach is highly subjective. Consider Nick Foles, for example. He was projected by some as a fifth or sixth rounder, others thought he could go in the third and that's where he was selected. He's played more like the way people hope and expect a first round QB to play. As a projected mid-round pick was he a huge reach in the third? Does the fact that someone thought he could go in the third mean he wasn't a reach?
Its highly unlikely, but not impossible.Mothman wrote: Okay, but how likely is it that there's a player someone will want badly enough at #8 this year to make the kind of trade you're proposing?
It doesn't work well? Green was in the playoffs nearly every year despite taking over a team coming off what, 3 consecutive years of not having a 1st round pick. Green took a team to the NFC Championship game and had the highest scoring offense in NFL history to that point. If that is proving it doesn't work well in your opinion, I wonder what you would consider something that works well?Mothman wrote: I'd say he proved it doesn't work very well and Childress demonstrated that again. You're talking about using the draft "as it's intended". How is it intended to be used? As far as I can tell, it's only real purpose is as a method of acquiring players and building a team. Consequently, isn't selecting and developing a QB using the draft exactly as it's intended to be used?
I didn't say the concept wasn't apparent. I said it was highly subjective.VikingLord wrote:Well, after watching the Vikings move up to select Tarvaris Jackson and try to force him, then take Christian Ponder at #12 and try to force him, I feel the whole concept of a player being a huge reach has been made apparent to everyone, including you.
No, it doesn't work well. Green was one and done in the playoffs in 4 of his first 5 years with that approach. The Vikings accomplished that much in 2012 with Ponder.It doesn't work well? Green was in the playoffs nearly every year despite taking over a team coming off what, 3 consecutive years of not having a 1st round pick.
How about an approach that yields a Super Bowl win and the kind of stability at the QB position that can lead to more than one? Green's approach yielded a 4-8 playoff record over a 10 year period. It was frustrating as hell. Meanwhile, in Green Bay, where Mike Holmgren was hired at the same time as Green, they developed a QB, went to back-to-back Super Bowls and won one of them. I'm not suggesting anything as extreme as the idea that a veteran free agent couldn't provide a temporary solution to the Vikings QB problems but I'm opposed to the passive approach you seem to be endorsing. The '98 season was great (most of it anyway) but I don't want another decade-long stretch of postseason disappointment like the one the Vikings had under Green. Continually cycling through whatever QBs the Vikings can sign off the free agent scrap heap while they hope the "right situation presents itself in the draft" sounds way too passive to me. It's an approach I think would likely doom the team to mediocrity, occasionally punctuated by a season like '98 or '09 in which they get close but fail to to get the job done. Haven't we seen enough of that? Maybe they'd be able to pull off what the Bucs and Ravens did and win a Super Bowl with a tremendous defense and a solid veteran free agent at QB but that shouldn't be the plan.Green took a team to the NFC Championship game and had the highest scoring offense in NFL history to that point. If that is proving it doesn't work well in your opinion, I wonder what you would consider something that works well?
