John Gruden interested in returning to head coaching

[Juice]

No thanks. As I've said in another thread I'd rather take Mike Zimmer.

[majorm]

Pioli is out of the NFL. And handled the Chiefs for three years. They're looking pretty good now huh? Also had some success with the Patriots if anyone remembers them during his run. He's the one that basically built this 8-0 Chiefs team...minus a QB. how frustrating is that!

Chiefs winning with Andy Reid. Why? Defense! Who put that defense together? Pioli. Someone telegraph Zygi. Guy knows how to build a winner. Has been part of building a winner. He can put a foundation in place, which is what we need. He's available.

And he looks like Tony Soprano. (Whew, I was making so much sense there for a while i had to tone it down)

I know somebody who works for the Chiefs and he said it was a pretty toxic working environment at One Arrowhead Drive while Piloi was there. But he does obviously know talent. Maybe he'd be better as a player personnel guy instead of GM.

Basically just let him tell them who to draft and let somebody else worry about candy wrappers on stairways in the team offices (funny story). Keep him focused on finding football players and he might be really good.

[BGM]

I'd rather have his brother, Jay Gruden, as coach. He's done some good things at Cincy as OC.

[VikingLord]

He signed Cassel because we needed a better backup than Joe Webb. He didn't sign hIm with the intentions of him ever starting unless Ponder was injured. He didn't know Freeman would come available deeming Cassel unnecessary.

You don't see the problem with that?

If Cassel was signed only as the backup, what that tells me is Spielman was convinced Ponder was set as the Vikings QB. If Spielman wasn't convinced Ponder had progressed to the point where he was safe in the starting job, then Spielman's best offseason move would have been to find viable competition for the starting QB spot on the team, correct?

All this confirms, IMHO, is that Spielman has no clue when it comes to evaluating QB's. Either he, or people he entrusts to do it, HAVE NO CLUE. They should not be allowed to continue to make decisions that will have an outsized impact on the team for the next 3 seasons.

And that's why I think Spielman needs to go. Granting Ponder the de-facto starting QB job based on what was known at the time is bad enough. Blind fans could see Ponder had not achieved nearly enough to warrant that distinction prior to this season. But then Spielman compounds it by not bringing in a veteran option that he himself considers to be a viable starter in the event that Ponder tanked. And then, to go out and get a guy like Freeman mid-season and force that, I mean, how does anyone need to see more than that to know Spielman has not a clue at the QB position?

And if Spielman stays on as GM, he is going to be the guy pulling the trigger on the next QB and likely also trying to find a viable veteran option in FA. If I'm Cassel, I want out after how this has gone. If I'm Ponder, I want out. If I'm Freeman, I'm already out.

I really hope the Wilfs know what they're doing and take the time to consider the track record. I understand they like Spielman a lot and have bought into whatever he sold them, but Ponder was a HUGE miss, not just when he was drafted, but continuing into this season, and Spielman left himself no viable alternatives in the event he was wrong.

Freeman is the only QB who makes sense to start at this point. If he continues to blow who cares we were gonna be looking for a QB next year anyway, if he somehow returns to 2010 form then great.

If you were a player on the team, would you care? This is what these guys do for a living, and if the guys at the top clearly don't care about putting them in the best possible position to win, how do you think that will ripple down as this season drags on?

Freeman will get another shot, and my guess is it will be the last game he ever plays in as a pro.

[dead_poet]

If Cassel was signed only as the backup, what that tells me is Spielman was convinced Ponder was set as the Vikings QB. If Spielman wasn't convinced Ponder had progressed to the point where he was safe in the starting job, then Spielman's best offseason move would have been to find viable competition for the starting QB spot on the team, correct?

At that point, Ponder had a strong start, lagging middle (by the entire team, including Ponder) and strong showing at the end of the year where he improved in just about every statistical category and helped the team to four straight wins. At that time, the data on Ponder was incomplete, though he was trending in the right direction and had, what, 27 starts to his name? Spielman said it takes three seasons (48 games)to properly evaluate a Qb. To that point Ponder had 27. The fact that he's cut that evaluation considerably short after 29 games should be pleasing to some fans.

Speilman did not have enough data to make a conclusion one way or another, however his last four games he started showing what they needed to see: consistency. He was completing more than 61% of his passes and had 5 total TDs to one INT, throwing three TDs and 0 INTs with a 120.2 QBR in the biggest game of his career. I guess I don't blame our GM for needing to see more after an apparent revelation (that we now know was merely an aberration). It's tough to make accurate conclusions on too small a sample size.

I'm willing to bet if Ponder had finished out 2012 the way he started 2013, we may have seen some different moves (from the lackluster options available).

Granting Ponder the de-facto starting QB job based on what was known at the time is bad enough.

That's the problem: it wasn't known. What was known was he was inconsistent, but trending in the right direction. What's worse? Passing on a "franchise QB" or drafting him, giving up on him too early and watching him be a successful franchise QB for 10 years for some other team?

And if Spielman stays on as GM, he is going to be the guy pulling the trigger on the next QB and likely also trying to find a viable veteran option in FA. If I'm Cassel, I want out after how this has gone. If I'm Ponder, I want out. If I'm Freeman, I'm already out.

If I'm Ponder, I want the chance to start wherever I go. So if I'm Ponder, I probably stick around for what is likely going to be a QB competition between me and an incoming rookie.

I really hope the Wilfs know what they're doing and take the time to consider the track record. I understand they like Spielman a lot and have bought into whatever he sold them, but Ponder was a HUGE miss, not just when he was drafted, but continuing into this season, and Spielman left himself no viable alternatives in the event he was wrong.

Looking back at the mess that was left, left the team desperately needing a QB. What other options were there? Another stopgap? I suppose you could say McNabb was a "viable alternative", seeing as though he started.

If you were a player on the team, would you care? This is what these guys do for a living, and if the guys at the top clearly don't care about putting them in the best possible position to win, how do you think that will ripple down as this season drags on?

I look at it from a different perspective. The QB mess is all about attempting to put the team in the best possible position to win. Freeman seems to be a desperation move to right the season (and possibly the franchise if he performed well). It's just not working.

[Laserman]

To me Ponder has looked the same since he started, lost, panicked, unable to make his read progressions with a weak arm and no long ball capability at all. He has made zero progression since his rookie year to my eyes and his career stats bear that out; near the bottom in all QB categories. I fail to see why anyone still thinks he MIGHT develop into a nfl caliber franchise qb. Each year we continue to hope for him puts the franchise back 2 years. Best bet now is to let freeman play the rest of the year. no matter how well he does this team needs to draft a franchise QB till they get one

[VikingLord]

At that point, Ponder had a strong start, lagging middle (by the entire team, including Ponder) and strong showing at the end of the year where he improved in just about every statistical category and helped the team to four straight wins. At that time, the data on Ponder was incomplete, though he was trending in the right direction and had, what, 27 starts to his name? Spielman said it takes three seasons (48 games)to properly evaluate a Qb. To that point Ponder had 27. The fact that he's cut that evaluation considerably short after 29 games should be pleasing to some fans.

Speilman did not have enough data to make a conclusion one way or another, however his last four games he started showing what they needed to see: consistency. He was completing more than 61% of his passes and had 5 total TDs to one INT, throwing three TDs and 0 INTs with a 120.2 QBR in the biggest game of his career. I guess I don't blame our GM for needing to see more after an apparent revelation (that we now know was merely an aberration). It's tough to make accurate conclusions on too small a sample size.

I'm willing to bet if Ponder had finished out 2012 the way he started 2013, we may have seen some different moves (from the lackluster options available).

Poet, I have to say I love the new avatar.

As far as Spielman's moves go, do you think a 4-game stretch at the end of the year justifies the unquestioned starter status Spielman granted to Ponder heading into this season? And when I say "unquestioned", I mean not just saying he's the starter heading into the season, but failing to find a veteran FA who Spielman even felt could compete for the starting job? Ponder's mid-season slump was not just bad - it was historically bad by any measure. Can just 4 good games at the end of a season justify that sort of confidence? Heck, 3 of those 4 games were just caretaker IMHO. Ponder just largely avoided mistakes in those games, which by his recent performances looked outstanding by comparison I suppose. But his only truly outstanding performance during that stretch was that last game against the Packers.

In my view, Spielman's moves, or lack thereof, were simply not justified based on the data he had. To proclaim Ponder the unquestioned starter and to make no moves to provide a serious and viable alternative to Ponder in the event Ponder regressed was not reasonable for a guy who is tasked with stocking the team with the talent it needs to compete. IMHO, the desperation move to sign Freeman just confirms Spielman knows he blew it. Ponder didn't pan out, Cassel was never a serious veteran option, so Spielman swung for the fences with another guy he apparently liked coming out of college.

That's the problem: it wasn't known. What was known was he was inconsistent, but trending in the right direction. What's worse? Passing on a "franchise QB" or drafting him, giving up on him too early and watching him be a successful franchise QB for 10 years for some other team?

If it wasn't known, it should have been strongly suspected, don't you think? At best that trend at the end of last season was tepid. Ponder finished the last game in 2012 well, but then again, so did Joe Webb the year before. Spielman has been in the business long enough to know that every dog has his day. That hardly justifies staking himself to Ponder for the following season.

Looking back at the mess that was left, left the team desperately needing a QB. What other options were there? Another stopgap? I suppose you could say McNabb was a "viable alternative", seeing as though he started.

Yeah, maybe another stopgap. Green found a viable way to keep his QB position manned until he got a guy he liked in the draft. If Green can do it, so can Spielman. If you're looking for specifics I don't have them, but where there is a will there's a way. That's what Spielman gets paid to do, after all. Put it this way - if he can find a way to trade Harvin, he can find a way to get the QB position manned while he's waiting for the long-term answer. But that didn't happen - it was Ponder or Bust this season.

I look at it from a different perspective. The QB mess is all about attempting to put the team in the best possible position to win. Freeman seems to be a desperation move to right the season (and possibly the franchise if he performed well). It's just not working.

I like that perspective - in the offseason and maybe the preseason. During the actual season, not so much.

[mondry]

Well I think bringing cassel in was a good move and probably does give us the best chance to win so I disagree that he didn't bring anyone in before the season started. I can understand being mad that they aren't playing him, or even not making it an open competition in camp, hell I'm not happy about that either.

As for finding a guy better than Cassel like Green use to do, I think that era's just dead. Any QB who can win in this league gets locked down for 100 million now immediately and there just aren't enough above average QB's to meet the demand where an extra couple slip through to free agency. Lately in order to even get anyone with undetermined potential you have to pay quite a bit for it. Matt Flynn is the best example I can think of money wise and Kevin Kolb is another when it comes to draft picks. Needless to say that's pretty risky and expensive.

[majorm]

To me Ponder has looked the same since he started, lost, panicked, unable to make his read progressions with a weak arm and no long ball capability at all. He has made zero progression since his rookie year to my eyes and his career stats bear that out; near the bottom in all QB categories. I fail to see why anyone still thinks he MIGHT develop into a nfl caliber franchise qb. Each year we continue to hope for him puts the franchise back 2 years. Best bet now is to let freeman play the rest of the year. no matter how well he does this team needs to draft a franchise QB till they get one

THIS!!!

[Delaqure]

I really like Gruden. I love his analysis during the games and he always seems to have comments and suggestions for the teams that are playing which tells me he is always thinking on how to make changes to improve the team. If he coaches with that type of attitude he would be a great coach.

Now I don't know what kind of control he had in Tampa when it came to picking players. Its true Tampa did not do a lot after the Super Bowl win. They had QB and offensive issues too and couldn't seem to shore That up. How much of that was Gruden and how much of that was the GM? I would take a long hard look at that before hiring him. He may he a great coach but bad at picking talent. If so I would not hire him if he demanded too much control. VERY few coaches make good coaches and good GMs.

If he would just coach I would love to have him.

[VikingLord]

Well I think bringing cassel in was a good move and probably does give us the best chance to win so I disagree that he didn't bring anyone in before the season started. I can understand being mad that they aren't playing him, or even not making it an open competition in camp, hell I'm not happy about that either.

As for finding a guy better than Cassel like Green use to do, I think that era's just dead. Any QB who can win in this league gets locked down for 100 million now immediately and there just aren't enough above average QB's to meet the demand where an extra couple slip through to free agency. Lately in order to even get anyone with undetermined potential you have to pay quite a bit for it. Matt Flynn is the best example I can think of money wise and Kevin Kolb is another when it comes to draft picks. Needless to say that's pretty risky and expensive.

He brought in someone, just apparently not someone he believes could be the starter. In fact, I wonder if he intentionally avoided going after real competition for Ponder so he could convince everyone Ponder was the guy, which would have been fine if in fact Ponder was demonstrating clearly he was the guy. The only problem is, he hadn't, at least not to the degree to justify that level of confidence.

Alex Smith was available. There are always veteran options, the draft, and trade. Favre came to GB via a trade. As I said before, where there is a will there is a way, but Spielman either was convinced Ponder was ready to be the unquestioned starter (disturbing because it reinforces the fact that Spielman evaluates QBs about as well as Ponder evaluates whether his receivers are open), or he was so interested in protecting his reputation because he chose Ponder at #12 that he went "all-in" and basically removed every possible obstacle in Ponder's way going into the season. Say he's the starter, treat him like the starter (2 plays in the 1st preseason game? Really?). And wala! He'll become the starter. The latter is disturbing because it shows Spielman puts ego ahead of what's best for the team.

[mansquatch]

What GMs are good at analyzing QB?

Consider: Who are the elite QB in the NFL? What year were they drafted?

Brees: 2000
Brady: 2000
Rogers: 2005
P. Manning: 1998

Below them are probably:
Luck: 2012
Stafford: 2009
Joe Flacco: 2008
Ryan: 2008
Big Ben: 2004
Romo: 2003

That rounds out the top 10. You can argue on who should or should not be there, that isn't the point. Of all these guys, only Romo, Brees, and Brady were not top picks. Brees was #32 or the first pick in the 2nd round. Manning, Luck, Stafford, and Ryan were all top 3 picks. Flacco and Big Ben were mid round and Rogers was lower 1st round. So having a high pick can matter...

More to the point though: How many QB were drafted from 1998 until 2013? How many panned out? My guess is the percentage is rather abyssmal. So why do people think a different GM is going to have a better chance than Spielman at picking a QB? Were the GMs in the above situations elite minds who knew something no one else did? Or were they lucky? I'm not seeing any evidence that invalidates the lucky thing.

I'm not going to say Spielman is an elite GM, he has made mistakes, but I do not understand why everyone thinks whiffing on QBs is somehow below average in the NFL. If anything it is typical. I think this is a classic case of "the grass being greener."

Note this is not an endorsement of Spielman, it is just a caution that there really isn't any hard evidence to support a conclusion that some other GM would be better at Spielman when it comes to picking a QB.

[mondry]

Smith was available so I'll give you that but the chiefs traded a second round pick for him instead of signing him as a free agent "like green use to do." Also, the chiefs had the #1 pick, that means they have the #1 pick in the 2nd round too, in order to get him we were going to have to give up one of our first round picks to beat the chiefs offer, and with hindsight okay it's probably worth it but that's pretty steep and who knows if the Chiefs don't add even more to beat us. They were extremely desperate to move away from the Matt Cassel era.

As for the draft, the two guys I think it would have been nice to take a flyer on were Ryan Nassib, ended up going in the 4th round and Zac Dysert 7th round. I'm not saying those guys are the answer at QB but imo QB is one of those positions that is solved by routinely taking shots at it. On top of that it would be one of those things like okay Ponder failed, maybe one of those young guys can give us something. There's upside there, theirs "hope" if you will. So I'll agree with you there, more could have been done in the draft

As for trades, I'm not really sure. The main guys I can think of are all back ups and the best you're going to do is like a kyle orton or shaun hill. MAYBE if we over paid we could have got a philip rivers.

This has much more to do with Ponder being such a massive bust than anything else though. If he's playing like Rodgers we wouldn't care at all about this. And I shouldn't even say rodgers, if he's just playing average like the 16th best QB even! It's just that he's such a MASSIVE miss I guess i just take more issue with Plan A being such a complete failure than I do that plan B is lackluster.

[Mothman]

He brought in someone, just apparently not someone he believes could be the starter. In fact, I wonder if he intentionally avoided going after real competition for Ponder so he could convince everyone Ponder was the guy, which would have been fine if in fact Ponder was demonstrating clearly he was the guy. The only problem is, he hadn't, at least not to the degree to justify that level of confidence.

Alex Smith was available. There are always veteran options, the draft, and trade. Favre came to GB via a trade. As I said before, where there is a will there is a way, but Spielman either was convinced Ponder was ready to be the unquestioned starter (disturbing because it reinforces the fact that Spielman evaluates QBs about as well as Ponder evaluates whether his receivers are open), or he was so interested in protecting his reputation because he chose Ponder at #12 that he went "all-in" and basically removed every possible obstacle in Ponder's way going into the season. Say he's the starter, treat him like the starter (2 plays in the 1st preseason game? Really?). And wala! He'll become the starter. The latter is disturbing because it shows Spielman puts ego ahead of what's best for the team.

It's probably as simple as this: he drafted Ponder to become the long term starter. He repeatedly talked about wanting to take 3 years to evaluate and develop a young QB. In all likelihood, he was simply trying to stick to that commitment because he believed in it. What changed> Maybe a disappointing 0-3 start, an injury to Ponder and a win in London prompted some pressure on Slick Rick from ownership? Maybe Frazier lobbied to play Cassel again. Maybe Spielman realized it just wasn't going to take 3 years to evaluate Ponder but I don't think we need to ascribe these self-serving ulterior motives to him to find an explanation.

Oh, and please, can everyone on this board just let go of the fact that Ponder played 2 snaps in the first preseason game? It's an utterly ridiculous thing for people to still be harping about almost half way through the season. The extra 10-15 plays he might have played in that game weren't going to make one ounce of difference in his overall development.

[VikingLord]

Maybe Spielman realized it just wasn't going to take 3 years to evaluate Ponder but I don't think we need to ascribe these self-serving ulterior motives to him to find an explanation.

Oh, and please, can everyone on this board just let go of the fact that Ponder played 2 snaps in the first preseason game? It's an utterly ridiculous thing for people to still be harping about almost half way through the season. The extra 10-15 plays he might have played in that game weren't going to make one ounce of difference in his overall development.

Feel free to think what you want. Please respect the right of others to do the same.

The point is not the number of snaps per se, but the treatment as the undisputed starting QB. It's relevant not so much to his development, although I personally think Ponder could have used all the snaps he could have gotten in the preseason, but rather the approach. It's extremely relevant to where the team finds itself today IMHO.