Some 4th Qtr numbers for the seasons 1st Qtr

[The Breeze]

I got interested in how well we are doing controlling the ball on offense and what the actual #s were for the 4th qtr specifically. I was a bit surprised at what I found.
I was looking at time of possession,points scored, 1st downs, 3 and outs and 3rd down conversions.

First the totals, then the week by week splits. Sorry if it doesn't format well...posting from a half-smart phone:

Total TOP 4thQ = 28:53 out of 60....our season #s vs our opponents: 107:37 vs 132:23

Total 1st downs 4thQ = 16.......total for season 72

Total 3rd down conversion 4thQ = 6

Total 3 n out 4thQ = 3

Total points = 9......our opponents 31
_________________________
Week 1: 4thQ TOP = 7:39.... total TOP = Det 36:19 ...Min 23:41

1st downs = 3....total for game 16

3rd down conv. = 0

3 and out = 1

points = 0
_______________

Week 2 4thQ TOP = 9:57....total TOP = Chi. 30:34....Min. 29:26

1st downs = 5....total for game = 19

3rd down conv = 2

3 n out = 0

Points = 6
_____________

Week 3 4thQ TOP = 7:26....total TOP = Clev. 28:52...Min. 31:08

1st downs = 4.....total for game = 21

3rd down conv. = 3

3 n out = 2

Points = 3
________________

Week 4 4thQ TOP = 7:39.....Total for game = Pitt. 36:27....Min. 23:33

1st downs = 4...total for game = 16

3rd down conv = 1

3 n out = 0

points = 0
_______________

What surprised me was how even the 4th Qtr TOP has been. I was expecting it to be fairly lopsided in our opponents favor. Teams have trailed us late, so they are passing a lot more at that stage.

What is lopsided is the point total....31-9.

Not sure what to make of it or why for certain there is such a scoring discrepency, most likely a number of factors, but I thought I'd post the #s anyway....~

[Just Me]

No touchdowns in the 4th quarter this year. A result of conservative play calling when we have the lead late?

[The Breeze]

No touchdowns in the 4th quarter this year. A result of conservative play calling when we have the lead late?

Possibly...
I know vs The Bears we had two legit shots and playcalling was iffy. AD losing 13 yds on a first down play caused havoc on the 1st attempt.

But other than that game they haven't even been close to the end zone.

Yesterday we got crushed on TOP but scored 34 points. I'm not so sure our talent is matching up on both sides for a ball control style. We have playmakers who score fast and through 4 games our defense has been on the field for almost a full 2 qtrs longer than the offense.

While it would be great to score a few 4th qtr TDs, it would also be helpful to give up less of them.

They have some goood things going on offense and some tinkering to do on the D going into the bye week.

[Reignman]

oooooo I love the numbers ... what's most surprising to me is the 3 n outs and 1st downs. I expected more 3 n outs and fewer 1st downs. The point differential is most concerning though. We're definitely playing more conservative in the 4th. We've been more obsessed with how many timeouts our opponents have and the clock than we have been about adding to the lead.

[The Breeze]

oooooo I love the numbers ... what's most surprising to me is the 3 n outs and 1st downs. I expected more 3 n outs and fewer 1st downs. The point differential is most concerning though. We're definitely playing more conservative in the 4th. We've been more obsessed with how many timeouts our opponents have and the clock than we have been about adding to the lead.

yeah, I thought there would be more 3 n outs and a large difference in TOP.

They need to go for the throat in the 4th qtr.....whoever is responsible. It's costing them games even though they have had leads at the end.

[PurpleKoolaid]

yeah, I thought there would be more 3 n outs and a large difference in TOP.

They need to go for the throat in the 4th qtr.....whoever is responsible. It's costing them games even though they have had leads at the end.

Yep. This conservative approaching isn't winning games for us. We got 'lucky' with the fumble when Big Ben was moving in for the tie.

I guess if the conservative approach was working, stick with it, but when it isn't? And don't the coaches look at tape and see their prevent D is giving up too many yards, and points.

[HardcoreVikesFan]

Ha. It is typical Cover 2 defense and typical conservative offense. Nothing that is different than we have seen since 2006. Why would anything change now? I mean, our system has just worked so magnificently since 2006.

[Mothman]

I said it after the Browns game and it was met with nothing but silence so I'll try again: the Vikes aren't just slipping into a prevent defense at the end of all these games. They're mixing in blitzes and trying to find ways to stop opposing offenses. There's some prevent but they aren't just settling into a soft zone with 7+ pass defenders and hoping for the best. They're mixing it up.

[psjordan]

I said it after the Browns game and it was met with nothing but silence so I'll try again: the Vikes aren't just slipping into a prevent defense at the end of all these games. They're mixing in blitzes and trying to find ways to stop opposing offenses. There's some prevent but they aren't just settling into a soft zone with 7+ pass defenders and hoping for the best. They're mixing it up.

Agreed, but I have seen a few things killing us late in games, and one could simply say our defense is out of shape and cover them all. Not that simple though.

When we do blitz late in games it does not seem all that creative. Seems we either blitz or stunt but not both, and nothing too hard for the O to pick up. Do we tip our hand?
Our zone is very slow to rotate ball-side IMO. I am not sure if this is because of poor coaching, young personnel, changing personnel, out-of-shape personnel, etc. But our rotation ball-side is slow and ineffective.
Our LB's are lost in pass coverage space late in games. Again, could be a host of reasons but I have specifically watched LB pass coverage on other teams to see if it's just us. And for the most part, LB's from other teams make ours look silly in pass coverage. Again, could be a host of reasons for that.

And of course could certainly be I'm wrong on all of the above.

[dead_poet]

Another contributing factor independent of "playing soft" I've noticed is a decrease in the pass rush effectiveness. I don't know if it's a conditioning issue or just getting neutralized more frequently for whatever reason, but allowing a QB the kind of time that I've seen, especially late, is not a recipe for stopping anyone. This is ESPECIALLY true with a questionable secondary.

[Mothman]

Agreed, but I have seen a few things killing us late in games, and one could simply say our defense is out of shape and cover them all. Not that simple though.

When we do blitz late in games it does not seem all that creative. Seems we either blitz or stunt but not both, and nothing too hard for the O to pick up. Do we tip our hand?

Good question. I don't know. Greenway was able to get a free lane to Roethlisberger on a blitz on the Steelers final drive Sunday but for the most part, the late game blitzes haven't been that effective.

Our zone is very slow to rotate ball-side IMO. I am not sure if this is because of poor coaching, young personnel, changing personnel, out-of-shape personnel, etc. But our rotation ball-side is slow and ineffective.
Our LB's are lost in pass coverage space late in games. Again, could be a host of reasons but I have specifically watched LB pass coverage on other teams to see if it's just us. And for the most part, LB's from other teams make ours look silly in pass coverage. Again, could be a host of reasons for that.

That's an interesting observation. I need to pay more attention to the rotation. I've noticed the LB issue. on one or two plays, it jut seemed to be blown coverages but I wonder if speed is the issue. When the safeties drop deep, it leaves the LBs with a lot of ground to cover.