Bears/Vikings Coaches Tape

[VikingLord]

For what it's worth, I think the worm is starting to turn on the issue. The 2nd half, although not mistake free, was more like what we want to see.

I think the onfield relationship with Jennings is key. The more those two can hook up th better all the way around.

The coaching staff is running out of wiggle room too. Their hand is going to be forced more and more to trust the QB and reliquish some creative control....IMO.

I wonder what the film discussions are like after these plays? In regards to the coaches, what are they thinking and telling Ponder after watching the tape?

I'm going to hazard a guess that before they give Ponder the green light to start changing plays pre-snap, he has to demonstrate he can read plays correctly post-snap. And that makes sense, doesn't it? I have to imagine Musgrave and Frazier are seeing what we're seeing, and Ponder probably is too, but in terms of game-day situations, he's not demonstrating mastery. And I imagine until that happens, Ponder is going to be on a tight leash. That makes perfect sense to me. You don't give a guy who can't shoot a BB gun straight a rifle and expect better results. If anything, loosening things up will probably result in disaster for everyone concerned.

The most interesting addition to this discussion in my view is that most of the stills 808 posted are from the supposedly better 2nd half performance of Ponder. That was something I wondered after the game finished. Are we all so used to garbage from Ponder that a fairly pedestrian half of football was enough to convince us he might have turned a corner? He did play better, but that better was probably average. 808's stills show plenty of missed opportunities despite open receivers and good protection.

I really want to believe the worm has turned, but I don't think it has.

[Mothman]

If football is a team sport then the same can be said about coaching. Childress' ineptitude has to be shared to some degree with the rest of his coaching staff. It isn't a far stretch to think that by Childress hiring Frazier, the two share similar philosophies.

There's bound to be some philosophical overlap but Frazier has played for and worked with Tony Dungy, Marvin Lewis, Andy Reid, Jim Johnson, Mike Ditka and Buddy Ryan (as a player for the Bears) too. How many of those coaches would you characterize as Brad Childress-like? I think Frazier's his own man and deserves to be judged on his own merits.

I also don't believe the Wilfs panicked when they hired Frazier. I think they hired a coach they knew, a coach they liked and a coach with the resume and experience for the job.

As I mentioned in the WTF thread, Frazier has also done a lot of positives but Childress also took this team to the NFCC game so a good season doesn't always equate to long lasting competence. It's still too early in the season to know for sure but right now all I see is the same complaints and the same mistakes that we had with BC.

They're the same complaints I've heard for decades and not just from Vikings fans. Fans always want coaches to be ultra-aggressive (until it backfires). As you said, it's early in the season and I think the loss at Chicago, in particular, needs to be kept in perspective. To just about everybody who isn't a Vikings fan, a win in that game would have been considered an upset. The Vikes almost pulled it off but fell just short. Heck, I don't even think they were favored at Detroit, were they?

[Mothman]

It makes my head hurt thinking about this coaching staff. I suppose that's a nearly universal sentiment for football fans across the board.

LOL! Yes, it is. Fan bases that are actually satisfied with the job their team's coaching staff is doing are few and far between.

[Mothman]

I'm going to hazard a guess that before they give Ponder the green light to start changing plays pre-snap, he has to demonstrate he can read plays correctly post-snap.

He's already been given the green light to change plays before the snap. He's done it. They just don't always give him a check option. I don't know why but it's not something that's unique to Ponder and the Vikings. Maybe it's a control issue for some OCs. Maybe it something else. I know Cutler was frustrated at times when Martz was the Bears OC because he wasn't given the option to check out of certain plays.

The most interesting addition to this discussion in my view is that most of the stills 808 posted are from the supposedly better 2nd half performance of Ponder. That was something I wondered after the game finished.

Remember, they're stills and a single still can be very deceptive. Consider the shot 808 labeled "Q3 2:44 Jennings looks open in the endzone. Late pass to Carlson for an INC.", which I also covered earlier in the thread, and remember that most of the players are in motion. jennings looks open but Ponder wouldn't be throwing it jennings where he is in that shot, he'd be throwing to where jennings is going and Bears safety Chris Conte is camped out in good position to cut off that pass.In the photo 808 posted, jennings is just making his break and he's basically behind Carlson so Ponder can't throw it yet. At best, he could have tried to thread the needle to jennings between Conte and the defender trailing jennings. As I said earlier, maybe that throw can be completed and maybe it can't. I don't know but it would definitely be risky.

[The Breeze]

I wonder what the film discussions are like after these plays? In regards to the coaches, what are they thinking and telling Ponder after watching the tape?

I'm going to hazard a guess that before they give Ponder the green light to start changing plays pre-snap, he has to demonstrate he can read plays correctly post-snap. And that makes sense, doesn't it? I have to imagine Musgrave and Frazier are seeing what we're seeing, and Ponder probably is too, but in terms of game-day situations, he's not demonstrating mastery. And I imagine until that happens, Ponder is going to be on a tight leash. That makes perfect sense to me. You don't give a guy who can't shoot a BB gun straight a rifle and expect better results. If anything, loosening things up will probably result in disaster for everyone concerned.

The most interesting addition to this discussion in my view is that most of the stills 808 posted are from the supposedly better 2nd half performance of Ponder. That was something I wondered after the game finished. Are we all so used to garbage from Ponder that a fairly pedestrian half of football was enough to convince us he might have turned a corner? He did play better, but that better was probably average. 808's stills show plenty of missed opportunities despite open receivers and good protection.

I really want to believe the worm has turned, but I don't think it has.

I think the worm is turning in regards to letting Ponder have more creative control. Not in the sense that he's outright earned it but in the sense that the offense will be limited as long as they limit him. Like Zulgad asked, 'If they don't trust him, why are they playing him?'

Just from my own life experience I know I understand situations much better and more thoroughly if I'm allowed to find my own way rather than just being told what to do and what not to do. If some superior of mine tells me to do a job, then limits my ability to do the job because he doesn't trust me, I tell him to do it himself.

I understand that this is a differnt kind of job and all.......I sense their fear of not trusing him feeds his own fear of making mistakes.

Let him swim or sink.....if he doesn't figure it out, move on.

[Mothman]

Okay, let's dig further into one of the plays 808 posted a still shot from. I've captured 7 shots from the sequence to (hopefully) convey a clear idea of what happened on the play.

#1: The Vikes come to the line. Simpson is split wide left. Wright is wide right. Jennings is in the slot and Rudolph is lined up next to Loadholt on the right.


#2: At the snap, all 4 of the players mentioned above take off upfield and Gerhart runs a route out of the backfield. Ponder is beginning his dropback.


#3: Ponder reaches the top of his drop and sees Rudolph is open, while Simpson, Jennings and Wright are all still covered.


#4: The LB covering Rudolph is 5 yards upfield as Rudolph breaks off his route. Ponder is already cranking up to throw to him. Meanwhile, Jennings' defender is falling down. Simpson's still covered. Wright has pretty good position on his defender.


#5: The ball is in the air and the Bears are reacting to it, which is one of the reasons Wright will look wide open in the next few shots and why Simpson is beginning to look open here. Their defenders already know the ball isn't coming their way and they're breaking off their coverage. Note that Jennings was open briefly when his defender fell down but is also running right into the teeth of two more Bears defenders.


#6: The ball is in the air, zooming toward Rudolph.


#7: The pass is complete to Rudolph and he's turning upfield. Noet that the defenders who were covering Wright and Simpson are now completely turned away from their receivers and aimed toward the action. It's especially clear with Tillman at the lower left.


I don't have a stopwatch but I'd say Ponder got this pass off in 2 seconds or a little longer. It was definitely less than 3 seconds. I think he made the right read on the play and threw to the open receiver. Jennings was eventually open too but Ponder had committed to Rudolph before Jennings' defender fell down. In an era where we constantly hear about the importance of QBs being decisive and getting the ball out of their hands quickly, I have no problem with Ponder dropping, reading and firing as he did on this play. When he made his choice to throw, I'd say Rudolph was clearly the best option. YMMV.

[Mothman]

Q4 13:05
Ponder with time. Jennings wide open but Ponder doesn't even look his way. Scrambles and runs for 5 yds.

I've been checking out the plays you posted (thanks, by the way) so I can get a feel for them as they played out and this one was as bad as it looked in the still shots. It was "one read Ponder" at his worst. As you said, he never looks at Jennings and Jennings is WIDE open for a huge gain. All Ponder had to do was look left and throw. There was definitely panic on this play and it's discouraging.

[mondry]

Okay, let's dig further into one of the plays 808 posted a still shot from. I've captured 7 shots from the sequence to (hopefully) convey a clear idea of what happened on the play.


I don't have a stopwatch but I'd say Ponder got this pass off in 2 seconds or a little longer. It was definitely less than 3 seconds. I think he made the right read on the play and threw to the open receiver. Jennings was eventually open too but Ponder had committed to Rudolph before Jennings' defender fell down. In an era where we constantly hear about the importance of QBs being decisive and getting the ball out of their hands quickly, I have no problem with Ponder dropping, reading and firing as he did on this play. When he made his choice to throw, I'd say Rudolph was clearly the best option. YMMV.

The problem for me is that it's about 7 yards short of the sticks with little chance for rudolph to make it up and yep it's 3rd down. If that's 1st or 2nd down then yeah it's exactly what I'd hope to see. Unfortunately, the way I see it is he's taking the "bait" if you will of the defense. They're more than happy to play loose on Rudolph and let that look open, come up and tackle for 4th down.

I mean sure he moved the ball closer, made the field goal easier, and most importantly didn't make a mistake or turnover but at some point we have to expect just a little more than that don't we? Considering we lost the game by 1 point any of our drives resulting in a TD instead of playing for field goals wins the game. I think we need a vastly better defense for our current strategy to work.

[Demi]

Start of his third season. Do people really believe we need to give him more time to find out if he's our QB of the future or not?...28 starts. It's clear. Do we want to try and fight for a final wild card spot, or not? That's the question. Fine, forget Cassel. Let's continue to struggle for a top 3 pick. Going to be a tough go but Ponder might be able to manage it.

[Mothman]

The problem for me is that it's about 7 yards short of the sticks with little chance for rudolph to make it up and yep it's 3rd down. If that's 1st or 2nd down then yeah it's exactly what I'd hope to see. Unfortunately, the way I see it is he's taking the "bait" if you will of the defense. They're more than happy to play loose on Rudolph and let that look open, come up and tackle for 4th down.

I mean sure he moved the ball closer, made the field goal easier, and most importantly didn't make a mistake or turnover but at some point we have to expect just a little more than that don't we?

Sure and sometimes we even get more. He did throw a nice, long TD pass in this game too. It's fair to expect more from Ponder overall but taking him to task for failing to convert on 3rd and 19, expecting a conversion on 3rd and 19 against a good defense, is asking a lot. I doubt there's a team in the league that converts a high percentage of 3rd and 19 plays. He could have thrown it into what looks like good single coverage on the outside but he threw to the open guy. Perhaps that's taking the bait but all it would take is for Rudolph to break a tackle and that's a first down. Meanwhile, they got 3 points out of it and, if I'm not mistaken, took the lead.

Considering we lost the game by 1 point any of our drives resulting in a TD instead of playing for field goals wins the game. I think we need a vastly better defense for our current strategy to work.

If they lost by 1 point does it have to be vastly better?

Seriously, I think they need to be better in a whole bunch of areas and that's why their strategy hasn't worked in the past two weeks. Ponder could definitely have been better but so could a LOT of Vikings players so why is he almost always exclusively the target of the question "at some point we have to expect just a little more than that don't we?". I think we should expect more from a lot of these Vikings players.

[Demi]

He did throw a nice, long TD pass in this game too.

A "nice throw" if ever I've seen one. Perfectly placed. In stride. Open receiver. Great read. Extend this man.

[S197]

There's bound to be some philosophical overlap but Frazier has played for and worked with Tony Dungy, Marvin Lewis, Andy Reid, Jim Johnson, Mike Ditka and Buddy Ryan (as a player for the Bears) too. How many of those coaches would you characterize as Brad Childress-like? I think Frazier's his own man and deserves to be judged on his own merits.

I also don't believe the Wilfs panicked when they hired Frazier. I think they hired a coach they knew, a coach they liked and a coach with the resume and experience for the job.

He is being judged on his own merits. The overlap comes in the criticism. When Bevell/Childress was here it was the same criticisms, "run, run, pass, punt", tight formations, play not to lose, personnel getting constant reps despite doing nothing. These are not similar criticisms, they're the exact same. Now those criticisms are being laid on Musgrave, meanwhile Bevell is looking pretty competent over in Seattle, where Percy Harvin has yet to even see the field. So either fans are projecting their bias from the Childress era forward (which would be odd since most of the criticism has been directed at Musgrave, not Frazier) or we have a common denominator.

As for whether or not the Wilfs panicked, you're entitled to your belief as there's no real way to prove one way or the other. However, Frazier was hired mid-season while acting as interim. There was no interview process. None. My view is they jumped on Childress because he was supposedly the next big up-and-comer, they let Tomlin get away and didn't want to repeat that error so they handed Frazier the job with no competition. There's two big differences in my book between Frazier and Tomlin. One, Frazier was coming off a disastrous season in which I didn't think anyone from the staff deserved a promotion. And second, Tomlin was hired right out of the gate while Frazier applied for, and was turned down by, multiple head coaching positions. So taking all of that into account, I think they panicked. Did Frazier really have strong interest from other teams? The Wilfs evidently thought so, history says otherwise. We'll never know the truth.

They're the same complaints I've heard for decades and not just from Vikings fans. Fans always want coaches to be ultra-aggressive (until it backfires). As you said, it's early in the season and I think the loss at Chicago, in particular, needs to be kept in perspective. To just about everybody who isn't a Vikings fan, a win in that game would have been considered an upset. The Vikes almost pulled it off but fell just short. Heck, I don't even think they were favored at Detroit, were they?

I haven't seen anyone asking for an "ultra-aggressive" offense. I have seen fans and media asking, "Why is Patterson not on the field?" To which the reply was more or less, "my bad", two weeks in a row. I've seen people question why we continue to run a 2TE formation as much as we do when John Carlson has yet to do much of anything in the last 19 games. I see people questioning why an undrafted free agent was given the starting job and moved from OLB to MLB after receiving no interest from other teams during the offseason. I could go on but I think you get my drift. I'll concede perspective needs to be kept if you will concede that these are not just generic complaints by fans over decades. Some of it has validity.

[Mothman]

I haven't seen anyone asking for an "ultra-aggressive" offense. I have seen fans and media asking, "Why is Patterson not on the field?" To which the reply was more or less, "my bad", two weeks in a row. I've seen people question why we continue to run a 2TE formation as much as we do when John Carlson has yet to do much of anything in the last 19 games. I see people questioning why an undrafted free agent was given the starting job and moved from OLB to MLB after receiving no interest from other teams during the offseason. I could go on but I think you get my drift. I'll concede perspective needs to be kept if you will concede that these are not just generic complaints by fans over decades. Some of it has validity.

I didn't say they were invalid and I'm sorry if my comments seemed that dismissive. I think some of the complaints definitely have validity. They're just very familiar.

As for the rest... for all I know, you might be right on all counts. It's all pretty subjective and I think the word "panic" gets overused when it comes to these things but that's just me.

I'll leave it at that for now. It may sound like a cop out but I've been doped up on cold medicine for two days and I'm still feeling lousy. I don't have a longer, more carefully considered response in me right now. I hope you understand.

[mondry]

Sure and sometimes we even get more. He did throw a nice, long TD pass in this game too. It's fair to expect more from Ponder overall but taking him to task for failing to convert on 3rd and 19, expecting a conversion on 3rd and 19 against a good defense, is asking a lot. I doubt there's a team in the league that converts a high percentage of 3rd and 19 plays. He could have thrown it into what looks like good single coverage on the outside but he threw to the open guy. Perhaps that's taking the bait but all it would take is for Rudolph to break a tackle and that's a first down. Meanwhile, they got 3 points out of it and, if I'm not mistaken, took the lead.

I don't expect him to convert any 3rd and 19, but once in a while sure would be nice! That one specifically had some opportunity to it with one defender falling down and the other just getting beat, leaving 1 db to cover 2 guys. From the stills it looks like Rudolph would have needed to break 3 tackles to get the first.

If they lost by 1 point does it have to be vastly better?

To contend for a championship? For sure, without a doubt.

Seriously, I think they need to be better in a whole bunch of areas and that's why their strategy hasn't worked in the past two weeks. Ponder could definitely have been better but so could a LOT of Vikings players so why is he almost always exclusively the target of the question "at some point we have to expect just a little more than that don't we?". I think we should expect more from a lot of these Vikings players.

I guess, but how many are drafted 12th over all or better? Just Kalil, and you know as well as any that we expected just a little more out of Kalil when he was struggling early on too! But that's the difference between a guy like Ponder, Kalil, etc compared to a guy like Marvin Mitchell, expectations. No one expects Mitchell to be the long term answer to the teams LB problems, but given Ponder's draft position and amount of effort the franchise is dedicated to him, he IS expected to be the answer at QB.

Now there are certainly guys I think could / should be playing better. Greenway seems really off to me for example. At the same time though their are a number of guys who I feel just completely lack the talent to "be better" like Erin Henderson or Jamarca Sanford and I'm just not sure how worth it is to expect any improvement out of them. Going in we knew LB was going to be a major area of concern and a likely weakness and that's been more than accurate so far.

[VikingLord]

Remember, they're stills and a single still can be very deceptive. Consider the shot 808 labeled "Q3 2:44 Jennings looks open in the endzone. Late pass to Carlson for an INC.", which I also covered earlier in the thread, and remember that most of the players are in motion. jennings looks open but Ponder wouldn't be throwing it jennings where he is in that shot, he'd be throwing to where jennings is going and Bears safety Chris Conte is camped out in good position to cut off that pass.In the photo 808 posted, jennings is just making his break and he's basically behind Carlson so Ponder can't throw it yet. At best, he could have tried to thread the needle to jennings between Conte and the defender trailing jennings. As I said earlier, maybe that throw can be completed and maybe it can't. I don't know but it would definitely be risky.

They may be stills, but:

- Most of these stills come from plays that occurred in the supposedly better second half performance by Ponder
- Most of these stills indicate the pass blocking is pretty good. In most of them, Ponder doesn't have a Bear rusher near him.
- Most of these stills show at least one Viking receiver wide open at some point during the play progression.

So, at least in this game, we can't blame the offensive line and it's blocking. We can't blame the receivers or the play design. Those are the majority of the things I've heard since Ponder took over to explain the weak passing numbers. These incredible snapshots (once again, thanks for posting these everyone who has!) are starting to make the analysis more objective.

Granted, the pieces are moving, but what I am seeing from the shots that have been posted is a QB who is getting adequate to even very good protection on most plays, but who locks on to his intended receiver and hesitates. Now he may not do that every time he drops back, but he does it enough that it has a noticeable effect on the overall outcome.