"The Next Step" for Christian Ponder

[mansquatch]

IMO the goal of that formation is to give AP a chance ot get to the 2nd level since so much of the defense is bunched at the LOS. If he breaks free he is basically going to gouge them for a huge gain and probably score. That being said, if he doesn't it is probably at best 1-2 yard gain. That formation seems like a variation of a deep passing formation, but for a running play. High Risk/High Reward.

AP has talked about this kind of defense in interviews. He likes this kind of play because he knows if he gets through the line it is going to be huge.

Passing out of that doesn't seem to do the QB many favors, especially if they blitz. Way too easy to overload a gap without the defense having to compromise on very much. IMO, this is probably Musgrave trying to be "too creatinve". That formation is basicalyl saying "we know you know it is coming, try and stop us." Doesn't make much sense to try and do a sneaky pass play when you've really only get 2-3 viable passing targets and a lot of risk to lose protection.

[mmvikes]

I am with Jim and Brian on this one. I'm not sure the anonymity of the Board breeds a collaborative, friendly banter among fans who share a common passion for our team anymore. I'm convinced that underneath it all that feeling is there, but it's hard to see sometimes. It appears some feel Ponder was garbage from Day 1 and have no interest in discussing his progress rationally or objectively. That may prove the correct opinion in the long haul but it leaves no room to have an intelligent & fun discussion week to week. And it turns me off. Also the constant harping on OC, HC calmness, and GM inadequacy. All these people work their butt off to make the Vikings better and I think disparaging them incessantly is wrong, especially when the team was successful last year. This is all just my opinion of course and opinions slamming players & coaches & front office are of course allowed, provided individual posters are not targeted. Like Brian, I definitely find myself posting less. Skol Vikes!

I have been a member on another Vikings fan forum for many years. In the past, there were great posts on the X's and O's of the game. Excellent posters and great discussion between all. In the past number of years, there was an influx of posters whose major goal seemed to be proving themselves right, and anyone who disagreed with their opinion wrong. It seemed to coincide with the arrival of Farve, but not because of him, merely a time when we picked a large number of new members. Now every thread has to become a (x) sucks, and if you disagree, you're an idiot. There have been so many good posters to leave the site, and it has become less fun to join in the discussions. Hell, even a game day thread now is only 3 or 4 pages long at the end of gameday, when they used to be like the threads here. I found this site last year, and although I saw some of that here, especially when it came to CP, there are far more posters who value differing opinions and good discussion on the team. Hopefully this site does not experience the type of flight that the other site did. It is enjoyable to read breakdowns of plays and how each member views it differently. I hope the rational posters continue to post and outnumber the minority. (I don't count game day, as we all can get over zealous in our criticisms in the heat of the game). Keep it up guys.

[Mothman]

IMO the goal of that formation is to give AP a chance ot get to the 2nd level since so much of the defense is bunched at the LOS. If he breaks free he is basically going to gouge them for a huge gain and probably score. That being said, if he doesn't it is probably at best 1-2 yard gain. That formation seems like a variation of a deep passing formation, but for a running play. High Risk/High Reward.

It's designed to give the offense a numbers advantage at the point of attack and, as you said, to get AD to the second level. From there it's all about execution which is why the poor blocking is such a huge problem. You can't play power football without good blocking.

That said, it shouldn't be a high risk play if the blocking is decent. These are the same formations that helped AD gain 2000+ yards and helped the Vikings win down the stretch last year. Even if they aren't blocked great (as they were on the long run Sunday) they should be netting a minimum of 3-4 yards per carry most of the time. When they're repeatedly resulting in losses, it's indicative of a breakdown in execution that's allowing defenders into the backfield.

Passing out of that doesn't seem to do the QB many favors, especially if they blitz. Way too easy to overload a gap without the defense having to compromise on very much.

There should still be hot receivers and it can be an effective passing formation to the TEs. I think it's also easy to overload a gap against a formation that's more spread out without compromising the defense too much. Where it becomes a little more difficult is in 3 and 4 WR sets, with fewer blockers on the field. Of course, that puts more pressure on the core of the line.

If they're going to use those tight formations (and despite all the angst about them, they've served the Vikes pretty well) they have to pass out of them at times. Otherwise, the formation automatically tells the defense what's coming.

As I see it, there are advantages and disadvantages to every formation. It comes down to execution and winning the playcalling chess game. The offense wants to get the right play call against the defense they're facing and vice versa.

[S197]

One thing that caught my eye in Jim's screen shots was Peterson. In the first frame you can see how high he is in his block compared to everyone else and in the second frame you can see the result. It's very surprising to see someone with that much strength and aggression looking that poorly in pass protection. It looks like technique in the stills but by this point in his career, is it even fixable anymore?

[Mothman]

One thing that caught my eye in Jim's screen shots was Peterson. In the first frame you can see how high he is in his block compared to everyone else and in the second frame you can see the result. It's very surprising to see someone with that much strength and aggression looking that poorly in pass protection. It looks like technique in the stills but by this point in his career, is it even fixable anymore?

It's not that bad in the first place, especially not on this play. Keep in mind, when that shot was snapped, Ponder had already dropped back and starting rolling out so we're well into the play. I just watched it again and prior to that screencap, the defender you see Peterson blocking shot through the line, was met by Ellison and effortlessly shoved Ellison backward. By the time Peterson gets to him, the defender's helmet is coming toward Peterson at chest level. It would have been pretty difficult for AD to engage him low, especially when he had to basically go around Ellison to make the block.

So, what you're really looking at is Peterson blocking a defender who made Ellison look useless on that play. Peterson only gets into the Lions player briefly but if he hadn't been there, Ponder probably would have been tackled for a loss. Instead, his block actually allows Ponder to get to the outside... and gain nothing. He had time to throw though.

By the way, now that coaches film is available I was able to see what Ponder could see in front of him on that play. Jennings gets chipped by a defender and released to the corner. he's never open. Simpson is running a crossing route from the far side of the field. He gets open but it would have ben foolish for Ponder to throw back across his body into the middle of the field on that play.

I'm left wondering: is this a poorly designed play with Jennings as the only real option or did Ponder roll out when he should have stayed home. he takes off right when he gets to the top of his drop and Simpson is just making his cut at that point so I would think that means it was a designed rollout but who knows?

It wasn't a good play.

[Mothman]

If Ponder stayed in the pocket, he could have hit Simpson. I also thought if Ponder kept his head up at the end of the play, he could have lead Jennings on his right shoulder and completed a pass.

I disagree about Jennings but agree about Simpson. The question is: was Ponder supposed to stay in the pocket on that play or was he supposed to roll out?

[Mothman]

Watching the play again, it appears Simpson never looks at Ponder until well past center field which hints that it might have been a rollout for Jennings. But even at the tail end of this play (see pic), I think Simpson is still in postion to make a play. The problem is, Ponder already has his mind made up.

In this case, I'm fine with that. I really don't want to see Ponder start throwing across his body back into the middle of the field. That's rarely a smart move even for proven veterans (just ask Brett Favre).

By the time the play reaches the moment you've captured above, a pass to Simpson might be possible but I still don't know think it would have been wise. He'd have to throw it over two defenders (and Jennings) and get it to Simpson in a way that prevented the corner trailing close to him from getting to it and before the defender running toward them got there. There are too many ways for that to go wrong. I think he made the right choice on that play.

The other sad part about this play, Detroit gets credit for a sack.

Which is weird, because it's credited as a sack for 0 yards. Isn't that a run for no gain by definition?

Which brings up another point. Simpson was WIDE OPEN on this play. Will this offense ever get to the point where the QB and WR will read the defense and take advantage of this type of opportunity?

I don't understand. How do you envision Ponder and Simpson changing that play to improvise a completion?

[Eli]

One thing that caught my eye in Jim's screen shots was Peterson. In the first frame you can see how high he is in his block compared to everyone else and in the second frame you can see the result. It's very surprising to see someone with that much strength and aggression looking that poorly in pass protection. It looks like technique in the stills but by this point in his career, is it even fixable anymore?

No, it's not fixable. Sad, but that's the way it is. They still can't trust the greatest running back in the league to be on the field for many passing third downs.

Nobody noticed that Rudolph was put on his #### in the backfield on that same play? The Vikings had eight men tangled up in blocking pass rushers. Like someone else said, that left Detroit with five or six men to cover just two receivers. The play was a bust on so many levels that it's hardly worth analyzing.

[VikingLord]

There is so much wrong with this play and this snapshot illustrates it perfectly.

- Why is Ponder abandoning the pocket? There is still a nice pocket for him to step up into, and had he stayed there and stepped up even he couldn't have missed Simpson crossing wide open.
- Why is Ponder rolling to the side of the field with the dense coverage? As 808 notes, Jennings is not only triple-teamed here, he's got a Lion in front, on the side, and behind, all within 5 yards of him.
- Vikes have 2 receivers out against 6 defenders. They are max-blocking, and yet Ponder is abandoning the pocket? Vikes have 8 (EIGHT!) guys in blocking against 5 rushers, although one could argue that at least one of the Lions is not rushing, but rather spying the backfield. Once again, WHY? With 8 guys blocking Ponder should NOT leave the pocket and he should not have to leave it.

The problem here is clearly the QB. Ponder knows he has max protect on this play. He has 2 guys out running routes, so he has only 2 reads. Musgrave is making this about as simple for Ponder as a friggin' MBA-in-4-years grown man who has played QB his whole life can possibly ever hope to see. And yet despite all that our skittish QB can't force his behind to sit in that nice pocket where he can actually make his reads. By abandoning it early, he can't even see Simpson, much less try to make one of his inaccurate throws to him. By rolling towards Jennings side, he leaves himself only the option of Jennings or run. In some twisted way, I'm actually glad he chose run at that point.

This is not a failure of blocking. It was blocked well enough. This was not a failure of play design. Simpson manages to find open pasture. This is 100% Ponder being Ponder. 3 years in he's still doing the same stuff he was doing before.

[Mothman]

He's an NFL QB. Don't you think he should be able to make throws like this? There's an open lane to throw near the sideline. Keep it low and in front so only Simpson can make a play.

To me, it doesn't look like a throw any NFL QB should make. He has to throw it back across his body and high enough to get it over the defenders in front of him so he can't zip in there and by the time it got to Simpson, I think it would essentially be a lob into double coverage. Maybe I'm misreading it but I think these still shots can be deceptive. Players look open but when everybody's moving, windows close quickly. When I watched it on film, it looked like a high risk throw to me. It even looks risky in the screencap. YMMV.

Maybe a pre snap and post snap read? Seeing the db giving a 10yd cushion? Seeing Jennings get triple teamed off the line? I think it's a waste to have someone that open and not even be considered.

It is but as you said, it happens all the time in the NFL especially away from the play. I'll grant that there was a big cushion before the snap but if I recall correctly, there was also another DB near the line of scrimmage on that side. How does Ponder know that DB isn't going to swing over and help with Simpson?

I know it happens all the time but this wasn't some blown coverage or a defender falling down. It almost seems like this play should've been designed for Simpson being #1 and not Jennings. Ponders PA froze the LBs which opened up the middle. Simpson was in the middle. I guess my point was this offense seems so robotic right now.

I understand. I definitely think there are too many plays that rely on deception and leave Ponder with little to no option if the deception doesn't work.

[VikingLord]

He's an NFL QB. Don't you think he should be able to make throws like this? There's an open lane to throw near the sideline. Keep it low and in front so only Simpson can make a play.

I'm actually impressed by the work Simpson did to try to keep this play alive. I'm pretty sure he could have sat down in that big open space, bought himself a house, raised his kids, and planned for retirement by the time any Lion defender could have closed on him had the ball come his way as he made his break.

But he doesn't sit down there and wave his arms around frantically. He sees Ponder is rolling and he keeps moving towards that side of the field in an attempt to make himself a viable receiver. Yet it's arguable that Ponder never sees him at any point in the play as he appears fixated on Jennings, the one Viking receiver on the play who could have legally entered the witness protection program given all the attention he was getting.

You know, before seeing many of these stills I was willing to give Ponder more benefit of the doubt, but after seeing them it is hard for me to understand what the Vikings coaches are seeing that gives them any confidence at all in their QB. This is really awful stuff. It's like a demo tape for how NOT to play QB at any level. I'm sure Ponder puts some good stuff on tape as well, but this bad stuff is really bad. So bad, you wonder if a flat-line guy who just mans the fort until they can draft a guy with potential wouldn't be better in the short term.

[Mothman]

I'm actually impressed by the work Simpson did to try to keep this play alive. I'm pretty sure he could have sat down in that big open space, bought himself a house, raised his kids, and planned for retirement by the time any Lion defender could have closed on him had the ball come his way as he made his break.

But he doesn't sit down there and wave his arms around frantically. He sees Ponder is rolling and he keeps moving towards that side of the field in an attempt to make himself a viable receiver. Yet it's arguable that Ponder never sees him at any point in the play as he appears fixated on Jennings, the one Viking receiver on the play who could have legally entered the witness protection program given all the attention he was getting.

You know, before seeing many of these stills I was willing to give Ponder more benefit of the doubt, but after seeing them it is hard for me to understand what the Vikings coaches are seeing that gives them any confidence at all in their QB. This is really awful stuff. It's like a demo tape for how NOT to play QB at any level. I'm sure Ponder puts some good stuff on tape as well, but this bad stuff is really bad. So bad, you wonder if a flat-line guy who just mans the fort until they can draft a guy with potential wouldn't be better in the short term.

Are you suggesting the smart choice on that play would have been for Ponder to roll right and then throw back across his body to Simpson in the middle? Maybe you need a reminder of what happens when QBs make that particular choice:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UUeqvquXZI

[Mothman]

Why is Ponder abandoning the pocket?

He's not abandoning the pocket. He's running what appeared to be a designed rollout. It looks like the idea was to line up as if they were going to run, fake the handoff to Ellison, slip Jennings through the line and then throw to him.

- Why is Ponder rolling to the side of the field with the dense coverage?

The coverage is rolling with him. The reason the other side of the field is so open is because by the time that screencap was taken, the play was well underway and the action was all moving to the right.

- Vikes have 2 receivers out against 6 defenders. They are max-blocking, and yet Ponder is abandoning the pocket? Vikes have 8 (EIGHT!) guys in blocking against 5 rushers, although one could argue that at least one of the Lions is not rushing, but rather spying the backfield. Once again, WHY?

To sell the deception.

With 8 guys blocking Ponder should NOT leave the pocket and he should not have to leave it.

It looks like a designed rollout was the plan from the start, even if there's no way to be certain without confirmation from the team.

The problem here is clearly the QB.

I think the problem is you have clearly drawn a series of conclusions about the play based on false assumptions. Everything about the way the play developed suggests Ponder had one read, not two, and that was Jennings. The defense was supposed to be deceived by the formation and the play fake and the Lions just didn't buy it. It's not the indictment of Ponder's incompetence you're trying to make it out to be. It's not even a good example of Ponder playing poorly. However, it IS a good example of how Musgrave sometimes gives his QB just one option.

[Mothman]

I apologize if I sounded aggravated above. I just can't believe this nothing play is somehow being turned into evidence of Ponder's supposed incompetence.

I don't know if this will help illustrate what happened or just make things worse but since I can't just post film of the play, here's a sequence of quick snaps showing Ponder's motion during the beginning of the play. He steps back from center, does a quick fake toward Ellison, looks up to see if Jennings is through the line and immediately begins his rollout. You can't see it here but as 808 wrote above, Simpson doesn't look toward Ponder until the play is well underway . Literally everything about this play suggests it was designed to deceive the defense with a run formation, slip Jennings past the line and hit him with a pass on a designed rollout. There is nothing to suggest Ponder panicked and abandoned the pocket or even to suggest he was ever supposed to remain in the pocket.

[Raptorman]

Looks to me like it was a designed rollout. Just like you said. I can't blame Ponder on this play. It's a play that if they bite on the fake run it works, if they don't bite, it sucks. Thing is, did they run from this formation earlier in the game? Had they done that then I think it might have worked. That would be interesting to find out.