Playcalling vs. Detroit

[BGM]

Sorry for the length of what follows. This shows some pretty startling numbers. On first down, there were 14 run plays called, and 12 pass plays. Before the last drive of the first half, that ratio was 6 run to 2 pass. On second down, the Vikings were more balanced than I expected (2 run to 3 pass in the first half, 4 run to 7 pass in the second half). The Vikings never ran the ball on third down. Not once.

The infamous run, run, pass pattern occurred 4 times, and only once did it result in a new set of downs.

They passed out of shotgun formation on 19 of 34 pass plays. They ran out of the shotgun 3 times.

Not sure if there is anything to be gained from this, aside from the fact that run, run, pass is very real, and very ineffective.

First Quarter
10:52
1 Run-TD

4:55
1 Run- Shotgun
2 Run
3 Pass- Shotgun

Second Quarter
14:47
1 Pass - Shotgun
2 Pass - INT

13:53
1 Pass
1 Run
2 Pass
1 Run - TD

10:44
1 Run
2 Pass
3 Pass - Shotgun

6:17
1 Run
2 Run
3 Pass - Shotgun

2:50
1 Pass - Shotgun
1 Pass - Shotgun
1 Pass- INT

Third Quarter
15:00
1 Pass - Sack - Shotgun
2 Run
3 Pass - Shotgun

10:19
1 Run
2 Pass
1 Pass - Shotgun
1 Run
2 Run
3 Pass
4 FG

5:45
1 Run
2 Run
3 Pass
1 Pass
2 Pass
1 Pass
1 Rush
2 Pass TD

Fourth Quarter
12:48
1 Pass - Shotgun
1 Run
2 Run - Fumble (handoff)

6:47
1 Pass - Shotgun
2 Pass - Shotgun
3 Pass - Shotgun

4:17
1 Run - Shotgun
2 Pass - Shotgun
3 Pass - Shotgun - Sack
4 Pass - Shotgun
1 Pass - Shotgun
2 Pass - Shotgun
3 Pass - Shotgun
1 Run - Shotgun
2 Pass - Shotgun
3 Pass - Shotgun
4 Pass - Shotgun - INT

Run on First Down - 14
Pass on First Down - 12
Run on Second Down - 6
Pass on Second Down - 10
Run on Third Down - 0
Pass on Third Down - 10
Run on Fourth Down - 0
Pass on Fourth Down - 2
FG on Fourth Down - 1

Pass (Shotgun) - 19
Pass (No shotgun) - 34 (9 during the last drive)
Run (Shotgun) - 3
Run (No shotgun) - 18

[Mothman]

Sorry for the length of what follows. This shows some pretty startling numbers. On first down, there were 14 run plays called, and 12 pass plays. Before the last drive of the first half, that ratio was 6 run to 2 pass. On second down, the Vikings were more balanced than I expected (2 run to 3 pass in the first half, 4 run to 7 pass in the second half). The Vikings never ran the ball on third down. Not once.

The infamous run, run, pass pattern occurred 4 times, and only once did it result in a new set of downs.

They passed out of shotgun formation on 19 of 34 pass plays. They ran out of the shotgun 3 times.

Not sure if there is anything to be gained from this, aside from the fact that run, run, pass is very real, and very ineffective.

... in that game. I think it's important to keep that in mind. As fans, we tend to get frustrated by that strategy when it fails and ignore it when it's successful.

Thanks for putting all that together. I'm surprised they never ran the ball on third down. Maybe that was just due to down and distance? They were probably in a lot of third and longs.

A little more fuel for the discussion:

I think only 13 of the first down runs were called running plays. The other was an improvised run by Ponder.

Although they started the game with a run/pass ratio of 6/2, when i look at the results of those 6 runs and try to put myself in Musgrave's position, I think it's pretty easy to understand why they kept running on first down. The results of those 6 first down plays:

1: +78 yards, TD
2: + 2 yards
3: -4 yards
4: +4 yards, TD

3 of the 4 first down runs went for positive yardage, 2 of them for TDs, so there's no reason not to worry about running on first down at this point...

5: -3 yards

Peterson's second carry for negative yardage. that doesn't happen much so cause for concern is emerging.

6: -4 yards

The third run for negative yardage on first down. Now there's cause for concern. Not surprisingly, they tried to open the second half with a pass. peterson's next two first down runs gained 1 yard and 7 yards, respectively. At that point, you can still understand why Musgrave isn't giving up on it. After all, he has Adrian Peterson in the backfield.

After that, Peterson's first down runs went as follows:

3: -1 yards
4: 1 yard (on 1st and goal from the DET 5)
5: 1 yard
6: 3 yards
7: 2 yards

As I said, it's more fuel for discussion...

[BGM]

... in that game. I think it's important to keep that in mind. As fans, we tend to get frustrated by that strategy when it fails and ignore it when it's successful.

True. I should have added that caveat, because that is what I meant.

I may try and post these after each game, because I am interested to see if the Vikings have some tendencies that are being exploited, and if Musgrave's playcalling actually is unimaginative. I have to admit that in this game, it was.

I completely agree that the running plays called at the beginning of the game were called fro good reason. Also, the more touches AD gets, the better he seems to get. But with the Lions D keying on him, I think there was little choice but to move away from the run. Definitely would have like to have seen one draw or delay play attempted on third down, though.

[Mothman]

The results of the 4 run/run/pass sequences BGM mentioned:

Minnesota Vikings at 04:55
1-10-MIN 20 (4:55) (Shotgun) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to MIN 22 for 2 yards (98-N.Fairley; 79-W.Young).
2-8-MIN 22 (4:22) 28-A.Peterson right end to MIN 19 for -3 yards (50-Tr.Lewis).
3-11-MIN 19 (3:41) (Shotgun) 7-C.Ponder scrambles up the middle to MIN 21 for 2 yards (98-N.Fairley).
4-9-MIN 21 (3:06) 12-J.Locke punts 36 yards to DET 43, Center-46-C.Loeffler. 15-M.Spurlock to MIN 49 for 8 yards (36-R.Blanton).

Minnesota Vikings at 06:17
1-10-MIN 18 (6:17) 28-A.Peterson left end pushed ob at MIN 14 for -4 yards (23-C.Houston).
2-14-MIN 14 (5:41) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to MIN 14 for no gain (94-E.Ansah).
3-14-MIN 14 (5:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Ponder pass short left to 81-J.Simpson to MIN 23 for 9 yards (26-L.Delmas; 55-S.Tulloch).
4-5-MIN 23 (4:20) 12-J.Locke punts 42 yards to DET 35, Center-46-C.Loeffler. 15-M.Spurlock to DET 45 for 10 yards (46-C.Loeffler). PENALTY on MIN-52-C.Greenway, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 45.

Minnesota Vikings at 10:19
1-10-MIN 20 (10:19) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to MIN 21 for 1 yard (27-G.Quin).
2-9-MIN 21 (9:41) 7-C.Ponder pass deep right to 15-G.Jennings to MIN 41 for 20 yards (23-C.Houston).
1-10-MIN 41 (9:04) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-98-N.Fairley, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 41 - No Play.
1-5-MIN 46 (8:46) (Shotgun) 7-C.Ponder scrambles left end pushed ob at DET 43 for 11 yards (55-S.Tulloch).
1-10-DET 43 (8:18) 28-A.Peterson left tackle to DET 36 for 7 yards (99-C.Mosley).
2-3-DET 36 (7:40) 28-A.Peterson left tackle to DET 34 for 2 yards (99-C.Mosley).
3-1-DET 34 (6:52) 7-C.Ponder pass incomplete short left to 89-J.Carlson (26-L.Delmas) [54-D.Levy].
4-1-DET 34 (6:47) 3-B.Walsh 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-12-J.Locke.

Minnesota Vikings at 05:45
1-10-MIN 22 (5:40) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to MIN 21 for -1 yards (79-W.Young).
2-11-MIN 21 (5:07) 28-A.Peterson left end to MIN 26 for 5 yards (30-D.Slay).
3-6-MIN 26 (4:20) (Shotgun) 7-C.Ponder pass short left to 81-J.Simpson pushed ob at MIN 33 for 7 yards (30-D.Slay).
1-10-MIN 33 (3:55) (Shotgun) 7-C.Ponder pass incomplete deep left to 15-G.Jennings.
2-10-MIN 33 (3:50) (Shotgun) 7-C.Ponder sacked at MIN 26 for -7 yards (94-E.Ansah). FUMBLES (94-E.Ansah), RECOVERED by DET-90-N.Suh at MIN 22. PENALTY on DET-94-E.Ansah, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 33 - No Play.
2-5-MIN 38 (3:39) 7-C.Ponder pass deep middle to 81-J.Simpson to DET 15 for 47 yards (26-L.Delmas). Detroit challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #2.)
1-10-DET 15 (3:00) 7-C.Ponder pass short left to 84-C.Patterson to DET 5 for 10 yards (54-D.Levy).
1-5-DET 5 (2:21) 28-A.Peterson left end to DET 4 for 1 yard (31-R.Mathis; 79-W.Young).
2-4-DET 4 (1:44) 7-C.Ponder pass short left to 28-A.Peterson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


The first two sequences resulted in negative yards and 3rd and 10+ yards to go.

The other two sequences both occurred on scoring drives. The 3rd run/run/pass sequence led to a 3rd and 1 situation so that was clearly a successful pair of runs. The 4th sequence resulted in a total of 4 yards gained... not great.

[Mothman]

True. I should have added that caveat, because that is what I meant.

I may try and post these after each game, because I am interested to see if the Vikings have some tendencies that are being exploited, and if Musgrave's playcalling actually is unimaginative. I have to admit that in this game, it was.

...or at least too repetitive (maybe that's the same thing?).

I would have too but I think what all of this really illustrates (for me anyway) is that there is a wise commitment to put the ball in Peterson's hands but also a need to develop more ways of accomplishing that goal. If I could ask Musgrave one question, it would be why they don't get AD more involved in the passing game.

[BGM]

So, I would not say it is a pattern, but it will be interesting if we see the same playcalling early against the Bears to test them. Will it be run, run, pass for a couple series to probe the defense? Maybe I can go back to last season and see if I can discover anything...

[The Breeze]

It's interesting to see that kind of composite....

I'm clearly more concerned about the actual game situation when plays are run.
Is the pass a 3yd route on 3rd and 7?
Are we just running plays from a preordained gameplan, rather than reacting to a specific trend by the defense?

There were several times when I felt we could've run some play action then dumped it off to AD in the flat. As long as he catches it, it's positive yardage with all the same potential he gives for making it a bigger play. I think it would slow the pass rush and help make the run run pass more difficult to defend.

We seemed to be in 3rd and long frequently and reluctant to go to a draw or mis-direction running play.

It was clearly a game where there was a ton of mis-executed assignments against a tough front 4. A lot of credit goes to the Lions and their gameplan....but we have to do better with the fundamental stuff if we are to win at Soldier Field. Just saying the obvious~

[Hunter Morrow]

I think Harvin would've helped tremendously in this type of game where everyone is struggling. Harvin is a threat all over the field unlike how the Vikings use AD. If you go back and watch the first part of the 2012 season, it was Percy that carried this team for the first 5 or 6 games.

Patterson was sold to me as a Harvin-esque utility player and...

We had him in for 2 plays? One of which he had to beg on bended knee to stay in on?

[King James]

It seems to me we need to work harder on 3rd down efficiency.

[The Breeze]

Patterson was sold to me as a Harvin-esque utility player and...

We had him in for 2 plays? One of which he had to beg on bended knee to stay in on?

I was thinking about Harvin earlier and how his absence impacts the offense. They definitely have to find ways that get 84 involved ala Percy....but I suspect they are still figuring out a lot of things that they can and can't do with the receiving core as a whole.

It may take awhile to get this show on the road....assuming it does. In the meantime, the defense needs to step it up a notch and force some turnovers too.

[Hunter Morrow]

I still want somebody to explain a bubble screen for 2 yards on 3rd and 14.

We have this nauseating pattern of...

Run for nothing against 8 or 9 in the box
Do it again for a loss
Pass to a complete nobody behind the line of scrimmage on third and 12+ for 2 yards

That happens every game and that is the sickening thing.

Or in the last game...

Past, incomplete
Run for nothing because nobody respects Ponder
Roll the right handed, mediocre quarterback out to his left and it sails into the cheap seats or into a defender's hands.

[dead_poet]

I still want somebody to explain a bubble screen for 2 yards on 3rd and 14.

I said this during the game after seeing that, but it was reminiscent of the Childress third-and-long draw play that nearly always resulted in a punt. It's conservative playcalling, wrapped in the hope that getting the ball into a playmaker's hands quickly will net a first down. I didn't like it then and I don't like it now. You have to take a shot, and you wonder if the coaching staff just doesn't trust that Ponder won't make a poor decision and turn the ball over, giving the other team better field position than a punt. There's so much wrong and alarming about that (if that's true).

"Punt it away and hope you can get a quick three-and-out to try again" seems to be the philosophy and that type of playcalling frustrates me to no end. You wouldn't see that nonsense with Manning, Luck, Ryan or a handful of other quarterbacks.

[mansquatch]

Another interesting item in here:

There are four third downs in that sample. In two of them we are at 3rd and 11 and 3rd and 14. To no one’s surprise, these both result in punts. Now before the Ponder bashing starts up, that is exactly the type of situation our defense attempts to create, those are very low % situations to try and get a first down. We ended up punting in both scenarios.

We also had a 3rd and 6 which we converted and a 3rd and 1 where we passed incomplete. Not sure why they threw on 3rd and 1, but whatever.

Down and distance is a big deal. If the running game is struggling to get consistent yardage then I think the playcalling needs to address so we are not seeing 3rd and 7+. The Vikings need an option when the running game isn’t lights out. In week 1 they failed to find that option, but I do not feel like they exhausted their resources. This is where PH really had an impact last year and it is why I don’t understand why CP isn’t on the field more. If AP is not blowing it up, then use the bubble screens to get 3-5 yard chunks. I was frustrated in week 1 as to why they were not doing this? Detroit creates a high/low match up issue for a defense with Bush and Megatron. We could do something similar via an inside/outside thing with AP/CP. It worked last year when AP wasn’t quite 100% post ACL for the first half of the season.

[mondry]

I said this during the game after seeing that, but it was reminiscent of the Childress third-and-long draw play that nearly always resulted in a punt. It's conservative playcalling, wrapped in the hope that getting the ball into a playmaker's hands quickly will net a first down. I didn't like it then and I don't like it now. You have to take a shot, and you wonder if the coaching staff just doesn't trust that Ponder won't make a poor decision and turn the ball over, giving the other team better field position than a punt. There's so much wrong and alarming about that (if that's true).

"Punt it away and hope you can get a quick three-and-out to try again" seems to be the philosophy and that type of playcalling frustrates me to no end. You wouldn't see that nonsense with Manning, Luck, Ryan or a handful of other quarterbacks.

As much as I'm down on Musgrave and the coaching / play calling, playing it safe isn't something unique to the Vikings. I've seen plenty of teams on 3rd and 14 type situations run a draw play for 6 yards or a similar short pass. A lot of it depends on field position and there are two distinct situations where it makes sense to me. One is in your own territory. If you're on your own 16 yard line because it's 3rd and 14 and you started on the 20, turning the ball over there means the opponent is very likely getting points and despite what it seems, most teams will have a hard time picking up 15 yards. The other situation is when you're on the opponents 35 or so. Picking up another 5+ yards makes it a 50 yard field goal instead of a punt. Depending on your kicker of course a 50 yard field goal is a better shot than picking up a 3rd and 14 for some teams.

All in all I'm much more concerned about the 2 plays before the 3rd and 14 that gets you -4 yards prior to that 3rd down happening!

As for the run / pass break down I think that's pretty telling. 14 runs on first down, 0 on 3rd / 4th, yikes! 18 runs in what was probably a tight formation vs 3 in the shotgun, compared to 19 passes in the shotgun. So it's pretty obvious if we're in the shot gun a defense can expect a pass. Simply way too predictable to have a good chance to succeed in the NFL. We'll see if the gimick tight formations continue to get shut down or if all we need is better execution. (Hmmm... I feel like I've heard that from some where else.... )

[PurpleMustReign]

I am not as worried about 'run/run/pass' so much as i am the play calls during the sequence.
Do a screen pass or a reverse or something. Running directly up the middle everytime is stupid and rarely works. Or try a flea-flicker. Something creative once per game for Pete's sake.