"The Next Step" for Christian Ponder

[The Breeze]

I think the scheme thing is more of an issue for the defense. They seem to be drafting accordingly. We now have bigger corners that could ultimately allow them more man coverage packages as well as falling back into zones. They key being flexibility.....and for any defense, being able to mount a serious pass rush.


On offense look no further than the Ravens for what can be accomplished with a trraditional style. It's all about execution. You get the right kind of guys together and get the all on the same page and trust them to get better each week.

I think this offense is loaded and it won't be opposing schemes that hold them back as much as it will be their own execution of the paybook.

[PurpleKoolaid]

I think the scheme thing is more of an issue for the defense. They seem to be drafting accordingly. We now have bigger corners that could ultimately allow them more man coverage packages as well as falling back into zones. They key being flexibility.....and for any defense, being able to mount a serious pass rush.


On offense look no further than the Ravens for what can be accomplished with a trraditional style. It's all about execution. You get the right kind of guys together and get the all on the same page and trust them to get better each week.

I think this offense is loaded and it won't be opposing schemes that hold them back as much as it will be their own execution of the paybook.

The execution excuse has been going on since Tjoke and Childress. So its our coaches fault? The Wilfs fault for not hiring the correct HC? Spielman's fault for not drafting/getting the right FA's? Its too much of a blanket excuse.

Both Ponder and Musgrave are sub-par. With AD, it should make both of their jobs easier (despite some here saying the opposite, that's absurd). But who is the more responsible is the question. AD makes D's use single coverage on the WR's and an NFL QB has GOT to be able to read that. And no, I don't think Ponder is. I don't think he can read D's at all. That's the one main thing he has got to change if hes going to be starting next year. And feed Kyle the ball. He was the MVP of the Pro Bowl with a real QB throwing him the ball.

[Purple bruise]

Hmmmm how on earth did Rudolph make it to the Pro Bowl without a real QB throwing to him so that he could become the MVP of the game.

[Funkytown]

I think his next step is CFL or Arena Football.

Going from NFL starter straight to playing in the CFL or Arena Football League?

Come on. Someone out there would just love for Ponder to warm their bench at least, don't ya think?

[mondry]

Going from NFL starter straight to playing in the CFL or Arena Football League?

Come on. Someone out there would just love for Ponder to warm their bench at least, don't ya think?

For sure, I mean Tjackson is still in the league as a back up.

[Reignman]

In terms of what I want to see from Ponder, it's not stats driven.

First and foremost, I think it would be pocket poise. The NFL is the best of the best, there are no perfect pockets where you have five yards of distance between you and the opposition like in college. It's chaotic, with complicated blitzes, hands in the air, and most of the time, seconds at most to throw. It's very difficult but a good QB needs to realize when pressure is truly there and when it isn't. When to scramble, when to throw it away, and when to just hang in the pocket that extra fraction of a second to let that guy downfield get open. I'm not worried about his arm strength, when his mechanics are sound, he can deliver the football.

Second would be pre-snap recognition. Ponder is going to get blitzed, it's simply part of the scheme that's run. Defenses will blitz to stop AD and they will blitz until the Vikings show some sort of downfield threat. He needs to pick this up and make the correct read (which sometimes can be a check down). If the linebackers are blitzing and you have a receiver running a slant over the middle, that's the throw you make. A good example was the Burton interception. Burton ran a slant behind the blitz and Ponder made the right throw, unfortunately Burton pulled up on the route. However, if Ponder doesn't see him, it can be viewed as a breakdown in protection when really it is a misread. Little nuances like that are what can elevate a QB to the next level.

Lastly, I'd like to see Ponder take a page from Favre and gunsling it a little more (sorry Jim!). As we all know, this type of QB can result in fantastic plays but also heartbreaking mistakes, but I think to date Ponder is still a little too conservative with his throws. He's shown the ability to throw into tight windows, I'd just like to see him take a little more of those chances. He needs to trust himself and his receivers and push the football.

That's more or less what I'm looking for from Ponder as the "next step." It's subjective so there's no stat or grade to say when or if he's made that leap, it'll come when it comes (hopefully). I'm not saying the pass protection has been great and Ponder has been playing with sub-par receivers to date, but this is a thread about Ponder's next step, and those are a few of the things I'll personally be looking for.

Whether you're an apologist, polemic, or just plain agnostic on the issue, I think we can all agree that Sunday can't come around quick enough.

THIS RIGHT HERE! Holy cow it's like you read my mind.

20+ TD's, 12 or lower INT's, 3,500 to 4,000 yards (this really depends on if Adrian drops down to say a 1500 yard year, or hops up to that 2500 he's after, if he's approaching 2000+ again Ponder won't get to 4000) 6.7+ yards per attempt, 65% completion rate, 70 rushes (scrambles) for 300 yards, 3 rushing TD's. QBR 95+

Oh man, I love those numbers. But you're right, it depends greatly on how AD does this year. If AD is struggling we're going to need Ponder to step it up. Heck I might even join the Ponder bandwagon if he's consistent, looks confident, and puts up numbers in this neighborhood. And as far as the YPA goes, the lower it is, the higher the completion percent needs to be.

Here's my rub with this stat: what if he's asked to throw a healthy amount of designed screens/slants again this season? This naturally lowers his YPA through no fault of his own. Of course some are quick to speculate (or state as fact because it just feels true) that they ask him to do this because "it's all he can do" rather than to maximize the talents of Patterson/Wright/Jennings (and Harvin last season). I agree that I'd like to see his YPA rise, but he shouldn't be chastised for executing designed short throws.

I think you kinda answered your question already, and no he shouldn't be chastised, but the real issue is he should be able to connect on the deep ball a little more consistently when it's there. Especially with AD in the back field, Ponder should be making a killing off the PA.

Very interesting read, thank you for posting it. Of course it will be viewed as another excuse

Well I don't know about an excuse, but as Eli correctly pointed out already, if a team spots a weakness they're going to exploit it as much as possible. And we proved early and often in the preseason that we couldn't handle the blitz so I expect to see a healthy dose of it come Sunday and Ponder needs to show he's capable of burning them when they do.

I agree with you guys--that individual stats aren't everything. But, that doesn't change the fact that that is how Ponder is going to be judged. That's just how it works. Fans have a lot of opinions about his stats, so I wanted to see where people think he should be at by year's end. Honestly, I would think that people on both sides would have similar expectations, but maybe not. Of course, some people are more forgiving than others.

Well I only harp on his dismal stats because they reflect what I've seen when I watch him play. He doesn't look comfortable, nor confident, and he's been hesitant to pull the trigger or take shots. And when I watch him throw deep it just doesn't look right, and again the numbers reflect that. I've seen him put zip on the ball so I know he's capable, but for whatever reason he chooses to put more touch on the ball and that allows defenders to close or even make plays. For example, that red zone pass to Rudolph at Lambeau last year. Rudolph was wide open and it would have been an easy TD, but Ponder chose to float it out there and it allowed the defense to get there and make a tackle. Had he slung that ball it would have been an easy TD. We ended up with a TD anyway, but the point is still valid. More zip less float.

And just what makes you think Musgrave has any clue what a spread offense and/or the read option are and appreciates their effectiveness in the slightest?

In my book, Musgrave is just as much the "herp a derp"-er as Ponder....2 TEs and a FB to run 30+ times a game in the Pass Wacky Era? Really? Seriously?

I know we can play the chicken-and-the-egg game all day long between Ponder and Musgrave's warmed-over Childress KAO. I'll settle for it being a "both/and" rather than an "either/or" proposition with those two. Same goes for the defense, clinging to the Tampa Two long after it has run its course. A decade of seeing opposing QBs play pitch-and-catch with slot WRs and TEs behind the LBs and between the safeties to convert third-and-long is quite enough.

At what point do we hold the coaching responsible for using such simplistic schemes that are SO out of step with the times? (Or, for that matter, Zygi for not conducting a real search after firing Childress but promoting all the in-house status quo until the stadium issue was resolved.) Are the Vikings really determined to be the last team to the table when it comes to spreading and throwing so as to exploit the rigged rules? Is it going to take Peterson retiring or blowing out another knee before they start adapting?

Top shelf! Don't get me started on Frazier and co and their "schemes". From the WCO that we pretend to run that looks nothing like a WCO, to that "let em catch it and try to make a fundamental tackle" cover 2 business that even makes likes of Tim Tebow look like a pro bowl caliber QB. It almost looks like they're just winging it as they go.

Chicago has run the Tampa Two with a great deal of success. This is a relevant, interesting read: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/83925 ... n-magazine

However Chicago runs a more aggressive, ball hawkish version of the cover 2. For whatever reason we're a lot more conservative. In fact it almost seems like we're in prevent D the entire game when we go up against upper tier QB's. The early 2000's Bucs also ran a very aggressive ball hawkish cover 2. That version seems to be a lot more effective than what we're running.

[VikingLord]

Well I only harp on his dismal stats because they reflect what I've seen when I watch him play. He doesn't look comfortable, nor confident, and he's been hesitant to pull the trigger or take shots. And when I watch him throw deep it just doesn't look right, and again the numbers reflect that. I've seen him put zip on the ball so I know he's capable, but for whatever reason he chooses to put more touch on the ball and that allows defenders to close or even make plays. For example, that red zone pass to Rudolph at Lambeau last year. Rudolph was wide open and it would have been an easy TD, but Ponder chose to float it out there and it allowed the defense to get there and make a tackle. Had he slung that ball it would have been an easy TD. We ended up with a TD anyway, but the point is still valid. More zip less float.

I agree that is what Ponder needs to show. I just think the chances of Ponder showing that at this point are extremely small. Small like the likelihood of a black hole destroying the earth tomorrow small. If Ponder could do that, he would have done it already.

In fact, what you are pointing out is part of the 2 things the best QBs need, and for the most part they are inherent traits. Those are recognition/anticipation, and consistent mechanics. Unless a QB can see a guy coming open before he comes open, he has to be able to make up his late recognition with zip and accuracy. You put a QB who reads late and has poor mechanics behind center, and you have a recipe for failure. Not only does the late recognition allow the defense to recover, but the poor mechanics can doom the play.

From what I've seen, Ponder struggles with both of these. He is late on way too many reads, and as you pointed out with the throw to Rudolph, he lacks the ability to put zip on the ball to compensate. Or maybe he can put the zip on the ball, but just doesn't because he lacks confidence in his ability and would prefer to try to guide it in rather than make an inaccurate throw.

Whatever it is, it's highly unlikely to change at this point. The muscle memory is burned in. The ability to see the field cannot be taught. Ponder obviously has some ability to make it this far, but he's not an NFL starter, and he's certainly not a QB who is going to ever keep a defensive coordinator up at night or force a gameplan to be adjusted.

Why did the Vikings not play Ponder more in the preseason and try more deep and medium shots? Everybody on that starting offensive unit needed the work and they needed to see if they could stretch defenses a bit more. That was the perfect time to try a few different things and Frazier played it like the Vikes won the Superbowl last year. Arg.

[mondry]

Oh man, I love those numbers. But you're right, it depends greatly on how AD does this year. If AD is struggling we're going to need Ponder to step it up. Heck I might even join the Ponder bandwagon if he's consistent, looks confident, and puts up numbers in this neighborhood. And as far as the YPA goes, the lower it is, the higher the completion percent needs to be.

Yeah I really hope we see something close to them. With Jennings, Wright, Simpson, Patterson, and Rudolph he has good enough weapons to pick up his game and improve. If he stays the same or even regresses I"m totally fine with a first or second round pick going towards the BQBA. If he only slightly improves I'd like to see some guards drafted but a 2nd rounder on a russell wilson like QB would be a smart move regardless and something spielman needs to get accustomed to.

All in all it's still the same for me, it's his 3rd year, time to show us he's the real deal.

[Mothman]

Yeah I really hope we see something close to them. With Jennings, Wright, Simpson, Patterson, and Rudolph he has good enough weapons to pick up his game and improve. If he stays the same or even regresses I"m totally fine with a first or second round pick going towards the BQBA. If he only slightly improves I'd like to see some guards drafted but a 2nd rounder on a russell wilson like QB would be a smart move regardless and something spielman needs to get accustomed to.

It's supposedly a QB-rich draft next year so if Ponder doesn't have a convincing 2013 season the Vikes will probably spend a first or second day pick on a QB.

Meanwhile, last season is over, the preseason is over and the season begins tomorrow. I don't know what we're all going to talk about when Ponder ROCKS the NFL in Detoirt and surpasses Peyton Manning's 7 TD performance with an 8 TD performance of his own.

Seriously, the QB situation isn't going to change now so let's see what the season brings, good or bad.

[Mothman]

The Strib has a great read on Ponder today:

Ponder on Ponder: Vikings QB critiques his own play

[dead_poet]

The Strib has a great read on Ponder today:

Ponder on Ponder: Vikings QB critiques his own play

Thanks Jim. Really great read. I especially liked...

The obvious question: This was one of only 28 Ponder completions of 20 yards or more last season, by far a league low. So the obvious question is, “Why don’t we see more deep completions in this offense, especially when Peterson is running so well?”

Ponder says: “We call them. We really do. It’s just a matter of who’s coming open and who’s not coming open.”

And

“Look,” Ponder says while seated in the coaches room at Winter Park. “My play last year was up and down. Started off well, middle of the season didn’t play so well and then played well at the end of the season to help us finish 4-0. I made a lot of mistakes, and when there’s a quarterback who people think is prone to a lot of mistakes, there are going to be a lot of questions about him.

“Hopefully, those questions will be answered this year because I think we have good chance to be a great team. Myself, with the pieces around me, this year, I expect progression. I plan on playing like I did in this [win over the Packers] for 16 games in the regular season and more after that.”

Notice also what he says about protection and how that, coincidentally, leads to more positive plays. If everyone can do their jobs, there's no reason why Ponder can't succeed.

[allday1991]

Thanks Jim. Really great read. I especially liked...

So who is to blame that we have the best HB in the league and we still are unable to sell play action. Is it The OFC fault for not calling the right PA plays and not setting it up correctly? Is it a.ps fault because he is not selling the runs enough? Or is its Ponder ability to sell the play action and make a accurate throw? I have my reasons why I believe our deep game passing attack isn't what it should be, and it all points to Ponder.

[Mothman]

Notice also what he says about protection and how that, coincidentally, leads to more positive plays. If everyone can do their jobs, there's no reason why Ponder can't succeed.

The passages you quoted stood out to me too and I agree, with a reasonable amount of support from his teammates, I see no reason why Ponder can't succeed. The rest will be up to him but he needs that support. Every QB does.

Hopefully, he'll be able to really show us something encouraging this season.

So who is to blame that we have the best HB in the league and we still are unable to sell play action.

They do sell it, just not every time.

I mean no offense to you personally but I get tired of reading so many false absolutes about Ponder when there's evidence to the contrary.

"Ponder can't throw deep."
"Ponder can't sell the play fake."
"Ponder can't read defenses."

If Ponder was half as incompetent as some of his detractors claim he is the Vikings wouldn't have won a game last year.

Maybe defenses see something on film that helps them recognize certain pass plays whether there's a play fake involved or not. Ponder doesn't always sell it as well he could so that's probably a factor at times but there could be any number of reasons some play action plays don't deceive opposing defenses. All it takes is one lineman or back with a "tell" in his stance to indicate that a play is a pass and a defense can be alerted and ignore the play action.

[Hunter Morrow]

Ponder is doing everything his detractors claim he does and then some, today.

[allday1991]

Next step for Ponder is the bench, after the pre-season and the game against the lions why is there any reason to believe he is all of sudden going to have a productive season for our offence. Sure he does something good but for every plus there are four negatives he brings, basically he hinders the offence more than he helps.