"The Next Step" for Christian Ponder

[mondry]

Here's my rub with this stat: what if he's asked to throw a healthy amount of designed screens/slants again this season? This naturally lowers his YPA through no fault of his own. Of course some are quick to speculate (or state as fact because it just feels true) that they ask him to do this because "it's all he can do" rather than to maximize the talents of Patterson/Wright/Jennings (and Harvin last season). I agree that I'd like to see his YPA rise, but he shouldn't be chastised for executing designed short throws.

Well I'll start by saying I agree, but in the grand scheme of things we have to look at the situation within itself. If they ask him to complete the same type of designed throws you mention, that denominator is still present, it hasn't really changed so it shouldn't effect his YPA in a negative way. What should change is his ability to complete the intermediate and deep passes due to his own improvement but also because of the improvement at the WR position. As big of a homer as I am for the Vikings / Ponder, they clearly left some opportunities on the field when it comes to the passing game so all I'm saying is if they can capitalize on those, while still doing the short stuff, his YPA should go up, regardless.

The short passes can also go both ways because I believe they take the pass + YAC when it comes to determining the YPA, though I could be wrong about that. So if he throws a -2 yard pass to Patterson and he gains 9 yards that's helping Ponder out.

[dead_poet]

Well I'll start by saying I agree, but in the grand scheme of things we have to look at the situation within itself. If they ask him to complete the same type of designed throws you mention, that denominator is still present, it hasn't really changed so it shouldn't effect his YPA in a negative way. What should change is his ability to complete the intermediate and deep passes due to his own improvement but also because of the improvement at the WR position. As big of a homer as I am for the Vikings / Ponder, they clearly left some opportunities on the field when it comes to the passing game so all I'm saying is if they can capitalize on those, while still doing the short stuff, his YPA should go up, regardless.

Oh, I agree. I just think expectations need to be tempered. These designed short passes do play a role in his YPA statistic, and if the Vikings run them more often than any other team/quarterback, Ponder's stat in this category is going to be skewed accordingly. The type of offense also needs to be taken into account. The 7.0 mark of Andrew Luck, for example, was due large in part to Bruce Arians' pass-first vertical scheme and the fact that I believe the stat I saw was 60% of his passing yards came in the fourth quarter while playing from behind. If Ponder often plays with the lead in a run-first, west-coast based offense, he's already going to be at a disadvantage to those other QBs who are either forced to (or by design) take a lot of intermediate to deep shots.

That said, he either did not pull the trigger or was inaccurate in probably too many of his intermediate/deep passes last season. This must improve. Of course, once again, protection and receiver separation/ability to make plays is nearly as critical. If he's getting buried because the line can't protect him for more than a second, he's not going to get off many deep passes (and coaches will try to adapt accordingly to quicker, shorter plays to avoid failure/getting him killed).

The short passes can also go both ways because I believe they take the pass + YAC when it comes to determining the YPA, though I could be wrong about that. So if he throws a -2 yard pass to Patterson and he gains 9 yards that's helping Ponder out.

I'm pretty sure YAC is not accounted for in determining YPA.

[indianation65]

It's obviously Ponder's fault that the new purple is so light, almost pastel'ish, but I'm getting use to it. If only he'd throw farther the stretched arm shadows would simulate "Deep Purple"!

...wisdom

[dead_poet]

While we're on the subject...

QB Watch: Christian Ponder under pressure

According to ESPN Stats and Information, Ponder faced five or more pass-rushers on 189 drop-backs last season, which was the fifth-highest total in the NFL. He had 118 drop-backs where he was under duress -- defined by Stats and Information as plays where he was getting hit, or forced to throw early or off-balance because of pressure. That total was the fourth-highest in the league, and Ponder's Quarterback Rating of 22.9 in those situations was 19th in the league.

Worth the read:
http://espn.go.com/blog/minnesota-vikin ... r-pressure

[Purple bruise]

While we're on the subject...

QB Watch: Christian Ponder under pressure
Worth the read:
http://espn.go.com/blog/minnesota-vikin ... r-pressure

Very interesting read, thank you for posting it. Of course it will be viewed as another excuse

[Eli]

Sounds right. It's what you do to a QB who doesn't see the field. You blitz the hell out of him, because he'll fail to see the open receivers more often than not. That coincides with many of the observations from last year of Ponder not getting the ball to open receivers.

I think some fans focus too much on Ponder's physical skills, which are not poor. Debates over whether or not he can throw long or can throw hard enough are moot. Far more important is his mental ability to see what's happening around him (pocket presence included) and to react quickly enough to play well in the NFL. That's where his biggest inconsistencies have been. Will he eventually "get it"? I have no idea. Maybe he'll just very gradually get better at it, which would undoubtedly frustrate a huge number of Vikings fans as they watch a very painful process over many years.

[The Breeze]

While we're on the subject...

QB Watch: Christian Ponder under pressure
Worth the read:
http://espn.go.com/blog/minnesota-vikin ... r-pressure

Those numbers agree with what my own eyes have been telling me.

Couple it with the comments Ponder just made about the O-line and communication on the blitz and it sheds even more light on why they struggle to be steady in the passing game.

Theyall have to get better....no doubt about it.

[Mothman]

While we're on the subject...

QB Watch: Christian Ponder under pressure

Thanks for the link. As the Breeze wrote, that corresponds to what I've been seeing in games. The Vikings absolutely must get better against the blitz, especially because, in addition to other factors, Peterson's success tends to bring more blitzing. Leslie Frazier commented on that last year. Teams started run-blitzing the Vikes in an effort to slow AD down but those blitzes can be just as effective if a defense catches the Vikes on a passing play. Their blitz recognition and pick up was a serious weakness last season, especially during the mid-season slump their passing game experienced.

Blitzing or not, I see this first game as a huge test for the o-line and the passing game. The Lions DL will test the Vikes OL and the Vikings passing offense really struggled in Detroit last season. They need to do better if the Vikes are going to start this season off right.

[VikingLord]

Regardless, it's all about those stats, stats, stats. So, I'm hoping people choose to respond to this so I can have somewhat of a standard of what fans expect.

Instead of absolute stats like total yardage or TDs, I'm more interested in how Ponder stacks up compared to his peers around the league. In other words, how does Ponder compare in the variety of stats used to measure QBs, both in terms of the league overall, and in terms of other NFC North QBs in particular since those teams play each other and other common opponents. So even if Ponder's numbers appear to improve, how are they relative to other starting QB's?

This is the only way to put Ponder's play in perspective IMHO. If Ponder throws 6 more TD passes and 4 fewer interceptions, that's great, but maybe the average QB in the league ends up throwing 7 more TD passes and 5 fewer interceptions due to a rule change or a change in the way the refs interpret a rule. It's where Ponder ranks relative to his peers that helps to cull out his individual contribution to outcomes and avoid, at least in my view, much of the "but he doesn't have receivers, his offensive line sucks", and the other sundry things that are trotted to justify his shortcomings in the relative rankings to this point. Maybe he doesn't throw as much, but when he does throw, what happens? What happens in situations where he *has* to throw, and is he making the most of those situations more often than not?

As a 3rd year starter with the league's most dangerous running back behind him, Ponder should be able to start rising above the average in most of the comparative categories. If he fails to do that, if I were the Vikings I would move on. You don't draft a guy at #12 to be a caretaker QB or even an average QB, nor can you count on getting otherwordly performance out of your running backs.

[S197]

In terms of what I want to see from Ponder, it's not stats driven.

First and foremost, I think it would be pocket poise. The NFL is the best of the best, there are no perfect pockets where you have five yards of distance between you and the opposition like in college. It's chaotic, with complicated blitzes, hands in the air, and most of the time, seconds at most to throw. It's very difficult but a good QB needs to realize when pressure is truly there and when it isn't. When to scramble, when to throw it away, and when to just hang in the pocket that extra fraction of a second to let that guy downfield get open. I'm not worried about his arm strength, when his mechanics are sound, he can deliver the football.

Second would be pre-snap recognition. Ponder is going to get blitzed, it's simply part of the scheme that's run. Defenses will blitz to stop AD and they will blitz until the Vikings show some sort of downfield threat. He needs to pick this up and make the correct read (which sometimes can be a check down). If the linebackers are blitzing and you have a receiver running a slant over the middle, that's the throw you make. A good example was the Burton interception. Burton ran a slant behind the blitz and Ponder made the right throw, unfortunately Burton pulled up on the route. However, if Ponder doesn't see him, it can be viewed as a breakdown in protection when really it is a misread. Little nuances like that are what can elevate a QB to the next level.

Lastly, I'd like to see Ponder take a page from Favre and gunsling it a little more (sorry Jim!). As we all know, this type of QB can result in fantastic plays but also heartbreaking mistakes, but I think to date Ponder is still a little too conservative with his throws. He's shown the ability to throw into tight windows, I'd just like to see him take a little more of those chances. He needs to trust himself and his receivers and push the football.

That's more or less what I'm looking for from Ponder as the "next step." It's subjective so there's no stat or grade to say when or if he's made that leap, it'll come when it comes (hopefully). I'm not saying the pass protection has been great and Ponder has been playing with sub-par receivers to date, but this is a thread about Ponder's next step, and those are a few of the things I'll personally be looking for.

Whether you're an apologist, polemic, or just plain agnostic on the issue, I think we can all agree that Sunday can't come around quick enough.

[Mothman]

Instead of absolute stats like total yardage or TDs, I'm more interested in how Ponder stacks up compared to his peers around the league. In other words, how does Ponder compare in the variety of stats used to measure QBs, both in terms of the league overall, and in terms of other NFC North QBs in particular since those teams play each other and other common opponents. So even if Ponder's numbers appear to improve, how are they relative to other starting QB's?

This is the only way to put Ponder's play in perspective IMHO. If Ponder throws 6 more TD passes and 4 fewer interceptions, that's great, but maybe the average QB in the league ends up throwing 7 more TD passes and 5 fewer interceptions due to a rule change or a change in the way the refs interpret a rule. It's where Ponder ranks relative to his peers that helps to cull out his individual contribution to outcomes and avoid, at least in my view, much of the "but he doesn't have receivers, his offensive line sucks", and the other sundry things that are trotted to justify his shortcomings in the relative rankings to this point. Maybe he doesn't throw as much, but when he does throw, what happens? What happens in situations where he *has* to throw, and is he making the most of those situations more often than not?

Those last two questions seem much more relevant than how Ponder's stats look relative to other QBs in the division. I think Ponder's performance in the context of the Vikings offense is far more important than how he stacks up statistically against the neighbors. After all, the goal is to win games not to keep up (statistically) with the Joneses.

As a 3rd year starter with the league's most dangerous running back behind him, Ponder should be able to start rising above the average in most of the comparative categories.

I'm not sure I agree with that premise. If anything, you would think having the league's most dangerous running back behind him would hurt many of his stats because with a back that dangerous, the Vikes are likely to run more and there are going to be fewer opportunities for passing TDs in the red zone than for QBs on "pass first" teams like Green Bay and Detroit (maybe Bush and Lacy will change that... time will tell). I understand the attention defenses pay to Peterson should open up some opportunities to make big plays but the Vikings were near the bottom of the league in pass attempts last year and as long as Peterson remains healthy and effective, I'd expect them to be in at least in the bottom third of the league in pass attempts again. That's not necessarily conducive to above average stats for the QB, although there are areas (like passer rating) in which it would still be possible to excel. Washington was also near the bottom of the league in pass attempts last year but RGIII had a passer rating of 102.1.

In contrast, the Lions attempted more passes than any team in the league last season.

[Mothman]

Lastly, I'd like to see Ponder take a page from Favre and gunsling it a little more (sorry Jim!) .

No need to apologize. I liked that aspect of Favre's game and I agree with you. He needs to be more aggressive.

[dead_poet]

I'd be happy if he just stops scrambling to the right when he feels the slightest pressure.

Better than scrambling to his left

[King James]

Better than scrambling to his left

Maybe he can scramble to the back?

[dead_poet]

Maybe he can scramble to the back?

Or....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZv62ShoStY