"The Next Step" for Christian Ponder

[DK Sweets]

I hate to continue to drive the conversation away from football, but I think we can all agree that things got a bit heavy in this thread. I don't want to pile on anybody else (anything I would accuse of somebody else I am SURE I have done worse), and it doesn't matter who started anything...I feel like we're all better than to stoop to a perceived lower level of maturity.

I'm glad I joined and I'm glad to have had discussions with many of you. I hope we can all continue to grow not only in football knowledge, but as human beings as well.

[Purple bruise]

http://www.vikings.com/news/article-1/P ... c21bc4d7a2

[Reignman]

Not once has anyone on this board ever suggested the reason Ponder has struggled was because of receivers running incorrect routes.

Well yes they have, and what do they mean when they say ......

At least Ponder has shown marked improvement over the last fourth of the season and with this latest upgrade of wrs another training camp and better line protection

That really depends on if A) he has adequate time to find them before getting chased/sacked and B) the receivers can get a step on the defenders.

It can mean one-on-one matchups on the outside but those are only beneficial if a.) the receiver wins the matchup and b.) the play calls for a throw downfield or the QB is free to audible to such a throw.

and continued on an upward trend to finish out the season despite his #1 WR not suiting up.

Besides Harvin he had no wide recievers and a crappy line.

Some seem to forget the plays we run have a lot to do with the skill (or lack there of) of the guys catching the ball.

With the offensive line intact, solid TE's, and what should amount to a better, more consistent corps of receivers, Ponder should surprise to the upside.

but with Jennings, Wright, Simpson, Patterson, and Rudolph he now has the talent around him in the skill positions to easily hit that 3500 mark and I'm sure he will.

if Harvin hadn't gone down half way through the season Ponder would have hit at least the 3250 threshold last year.

Given the improvements at WR this should be rather attainable.

And as we saw during much of Ponder's "slump," the Vikings were being blitzed aggressively and relentlessly, the line/backs weren't able to effectively pick it up and Ponder was having next to no time to throw, much less go through a read. In some of those situations you could be Joe Montana or Brett Favre or Johnny Unitas and it wouldn't matter.

The offensive line will probably still hold this passing game back from being truly elite

Exactly. I think we can all agree that sub-100 yard passing performances are not acceptable from the passing game. However, they are a consequence of the entire passing offense, not just the quarterback.

The confidence you mentioned is a part of that too so the players around him need to come through for him. It's a two-way street.

Patterson should be able to turn routes like that into some big gains but those patterns rely on timing and accuracy from both QB and receiver.

His development has been somewhat hindered by the talent and circumstances around him. The team has lacked receiving talent over the course of his career and he's played behind bad-to-erratic pass protection).

I think that the only thing that will hinder this is the crappy pass protecting line that is protecting him for about 2 whole seconds. If the line holds up and there in hardly any improvement on his part then I say that it will be time for a change.

We've substantially upgraded the pass catching talent around Ponder.

I'm also not worried about his YPA because now that he has some actual NFL caliber WR's look for that YPA to go way up.

Did you watch the 49ers game?. If not look at the re-run and watch how well the line blocked in pass protection and how the rbs picked up the blitz. It was pitiful

You'll need a pretty good argument to convince me Jenkins, Aromashadu, or Simpson is on the level of any of these guys and that we should have been passing deep to them more often than handing off to AD.

Sounds like the glass half full crew was the glass half empty crew when it came to the rest of the offense. But yeah, looks like a lot of receiver blame to me, and that's only after reading 2 threads (one of which was this one) before I finally grew bored. I threw the blocking blame in there as a bonus because that'll be the next thing an apologist tries to deny anyone ever suggested.

[Reignman]

Given that the trademark Childress stubborness has been no where to be seen in this incarnation of the Vikings I see no reason to think that brand of idiocy would materilze should Ponder fail.

That's funny right there. "Should Ponder fail"? Were you convinced TJoke was a failure? And at what point did you come to that conclusion? Childress was at least smart enough to go out and get a better option in '09 when his pet project wasn't coming along like someone worthy of a starting job in the NFL. So which coach is more stubborn again? OMG, the sky IS falling, I'm now defending Childress.

354-603 (58.7%), 3984 yds (6.61 avg), 24 td (3.98%), 22 int (3.65%), 76.6 rating (20 starts) -- TJoke
458-774 (59.2%), 4788 yds (6.19 avg), 31 td (4.01%), 25 int (3.23%), 77.1 rating (26 starts) -- Flounder

Flounder is no better than TJoke and yet for some reason a lot of you believe he has more potential. Oh and hey, look at my favorite stat, average per attempt. Even TJoke puts him to shame. And don't even try to use bad receivers and poor blocking as an excuse, those were the same excuses used by TJoke apologists. It's crazy how Favre came in here with the same OL and receivers and put up MVP numbers. A truly good QB, a championship type QB should be able to elevate the teammates around him. He should be able to throw his crappy receivers open. Besides, this is the NFL, you're not going to get the perfect conditions you demand for Ponder.

That is completely different than a post filled with insults and invective minus the hard evidence.

Right, because the insults and invective aren't accompanied by "hard evidence", much like what I just posted above. See: belief perseverance. Just because you guys pretend there's no evidence against Ponder, doesn't make it so. I don't force you to ignore the hard evidence in the case I present.

But considering we had no WR's and are a run first offense I'd say he's actually over achieving getting 25th. Ah here it is, this must be what you're talking about, his worst ranking, stat wise is yards per attempt, 31st at 6.08. Unfortunately that stat just isn't a big deal for our offense. After AD knocks it down to 3rd and 6 or better which he so often does it's Ponder's job to get the first down meaning a high completion percentage.

See: lower bar syndrome. I'm glad you're ok with our crappy QB so long as AD continues to "knock it down" to 3rd and manageable. Lets keep relying on that instead of going out and improving the QB position before it becomes necessary. No you're right, I'm the one that's irrational for wanting to address that problem before it becomes a liability for our football team.

Ponder had 12 picks and ~3000 yards passing last year. The question is what will contribute more to us going from 10 wins to 12: 2 Less Picks or 500 more yards?

Let me just go ahead and ask, why are the only 2 options more picks or more yards? Again, how low is the bar for Ponder? Why can't he throw for more yards and fewer (or the same) amount of picks? Favre was aggressive and constantly went deep in '09 and yet only threw 7 picks. And all that with the same crappy receivers and piss poor blocking that TJoke allegedly had.

Blaine Gabbert is a good example of a QB I'd already want to replace.

Maybe Gabbert like Ponder just had the misfortune of playing with crappy receivers I want to know just exactly how the apologists evaluate the QB position. You know, with evidence and what not. How do you determine when it's bad receivers or a bad passer? It seems to depend greatly on what color jersey the passer is wearing. I mean how do you ever know? Jeepers, maybe we would have won a bowl or 2 by now if we just stuck with Spergon Wynn.

A lot of people are over valuing the preseason data when it comes to the negative.

Is someone hiding the positive Ponder data? That's all we have is negative. Ponder looked like crap despite getting the better targets the apologists thought he needed, so yeah lets just conveniently dismiss the preseason data. Hey lets just blame the blocking. Why are you glass half full guys always so negative about the offensive line? I'm sick of it xD. But yeah, it's only preseason, they weren't trying, and didn't want to reveal too much. It's more important to be covert than to reveal too much of our dangerous horizontal pass attack.

No, then there's my thought process ... hey our real game plan (AD) isn't going to play until the regular season, so hey, what do you say we spend the preseason working on the part of our offense that needs a lot of work? You know, the passing game? Oh right, terrible idea, lets not work on that at all and just hope we never need to pass. Someone let Frazier know there's no wing in the HoF dedicated to those who stuck with standard operating procedure.

Is it fair to pin all the blame on him? Maybe not. But he is the quarterback, the No. 12 pick in the draft, and at some point has to be held accountable.

Exactly! And that's all I'm doing ... holding the 12th pick in the draft, our field general, accountable. I just happened to arrive there a little sooner than some others on this board xD. But to be fair, the glass half full crew does a great job of holding the receivers and O-Line accountable.

This is a Ponder thread, though. The only argument from the glass half empty crew (aka the endless night posse) that makes sense to me is that Ponder, at his very best, will never be more than a game manager. This does scare me a bit, but even so, I firmly believe he deserves the reigns this season to continue his success from last year. And I define success as wins. Nothing else matters.

If nothing else, you guys are hilarious . "Glass half empty crew" and "endless night posse" good creative stuff . I believe he deserves the reigns this season too, but I think he should be on a shorter leash. However it's your final comment that blows me away, "I define success as wins. Nothing else matters.". Really? Nothing else matters? Wins are the only way to gauge how good a QB is in your book? And yet it's the glass half empty crew that can't be taken serious? Hey and since the QB position isn't more important than any other position lets just go ahead and grade all players on wins and losses.

Regardless, like I said it'll likely go up half a yard or so now that we have some actual receivers. Because if Adrian keeps this up, we're not just a run-first team, we'll be THE BEST run first team in the history of the NFL. Like I said, in the last 10 games he was averaging 7.1 YPC, this is so far beyond special that it makes zero sense to get in his way. But it's not just Adrian Peterson, it's a coach that also believes in it, it's the offensive coordinator's offense, and we simply play defense.

Oh I finally get it. I finally understand what the glass half full crew suffers from. It's ignorance. Oh man, no wonder you guys choose to ignore all the data and make excuses. Hey we don't care how bad Ponder is as long as everyone else on offense carries him, and we win. You're right, that's so much easier.

Head line from the New York Daily News:
Christian Ponder guides Minnesota Vikings to upset victory over San Francisco 49ers. VIKINGS 24, 49ERS 13: Ponder threw two touchdown passes to tight end Kyle Rudolph and ran for another score to help the Vikings hand the 49ers their first defeat of the season. After a dominant start to their NFC North tour by decisively beating playoff teams Green Bay and Detroit, the 49ers (2-1) were beaten in every way by the team least likely to do so. The Vikings (2-1) began the game boldly with a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass by Ponder to his favorite target Rudolph. Some choose to forget and others just forget.

You make this so easy xD. You found 1 good headline about 1 good game, but willingly ignore the 200 headlines from the other 80% of his games that don't shine him in the same delusional light that you've created in your mind, and you post it on the forum for all to see like the proud parent of a D- student. It might be worse than I first thought, it might be ... willful ignorance?

[Mothman]

http://www.vikings.com/news/article-1/P ... c21bc4d7a2

Thanks for the link!

[Funkytown]

All I want to know is: What is going to define success and/or improvement for Ponder? This goes for people on both sides. Because I think we can all agree that some major improvements need to happen--and they should happen because that's his job as a leader of this football team--not to mention the better talent around him now. Everything points to him having much higher expectations this season. But, what is going to be good enough as far as numbers? People bring up his stats constantly, but realistically he can improve on all of his stats by a quite of bit and the Vikings may very well end up with a worse record--and may not even get close to the playoffs. What if, just what if, Ponder improves significantly in all major categories and our losses can't be mostly blamed on him? Then what? Is Ponder a keeper? Or didn't he do enough? Wasn't he that leader that we needed? What specific numbers are people looking for Ponder to reach to be considered "improved enough" to keep around? What's the new standard?

[dead_poet]

What if, just what if, Ponder improves significantly in all major categories and our losses can't be mostly blamed on him?

Sure they can.

What specific numbers are people looking for Ponder to reach to be considered "improved enough" to keep around?

Everyone has different expectations. I would think most people would take being in the top-15 in most relevant quarterback statistics (TDs, INTs, QBR, completion %, yards/completion, sacks, fumbles), even if that might be quite an undertaking. Vikings fans desperately want a top-tier QB and anything except that is seen as a failure at worst and "not good enough" at best. In my eyes, a jump from the bottom third to middle-of-the-pack would be a pretty big achievement and indication he's on the right track. I think asking him to make the jump to a top-10 QB over the course of a season is a bit of a stretch. As we've seen you mileage may (will) vary.

[mondry]

Thanks for the link!

Liked when he was talking about o-line protection and blitz protection, how they use to just go hot (assuming with the hot read) but now they're capable of shifting protection pre-snap. Will be interesting to see how much that helps.

[vikeinmontana]

Sounds like the glass half full crew was the glass half empty crew when it came to the rest of the offense. But yeah, looks like a lot of receiver blame to me, and that's only after reading 2 threads (one of which was this one) before I finally grew bored. I threw the blocking blame in there as a bonus because that'll be the next thing an apologist tries to deny anyone ever suggested.

so I read every single one of those quotes you offered and not one of them said that the receivers were running the wrong routes. which is what dead poet said. I appreciate all the work you did, but you could have saved so much time if you just would have told DP that you agreed with him.

[Funkytown]

Sure they can.

I knew that was coming as soon as I typed it.

But, I'd like to know people's thoughts on this so I have somewhat of a reference point to look back on after the season.

[Mothman]

All I want to know is: What is going to define success and/or improvement for Ponder? This goes for people on both sides. Because I think we can all agree that some major improvements need to happen--and they should happen because that's his job as a leader of this football team--not to mention the better talent around him now. Everything points to him having much higher expectations this season. But, what is going to be good enough as far as numbers? People bring up his stats constantly, but realistically he can improve on all of his stats by a quite of bit and the Vikings may very well end up with a worse record--and may not even get close to the playoffs. What if, just what if, Ponder improves significantly in all major categories and our losses can't be mostly blamed on him? Then what? Is Ponder a keeper? Or didn't he do enough? Wasn't he that leader that we needed? What specific numbers are people looking for Ponder to reach to be considered "improved enough" to keep around? What's the new standard?

It's a fair question but I don't really have a good answer because I'm not looking for any specific numbers as the standard and, in fact, I don't think that's really the best way to look at it. There are definitely stats I consider important. For example, I think he needs to continue posting a positive TD to INT ratio, a good completion percentage and I'd like to see his average yards per attempt rise too. However, what's most important to me is how he actually performs in the context of the games. I want to see leadership, good decisions and improved accuracy but I think the real bottom line is sustaining drives and scoring. In other words, if he moves the team effectively, that's what matters most. I don't care if the drives end in rushing TDs or passing TDs but the more they end in TDs, the better and the more they end in scores as opposed to punts, the better. In the end, I think that's what playing QB is all about: moving the offense and scoring. It doesn't have to be pretty and it doesn't have to be statistically impressive, it just has to be effective.

[Funkytown]

It's a fair question but I don't really have a good answer because I'm not looking for any specific numbers as the standard and, in fact, I don't think that's really the best way to look at it. There are definitely stats I consider important. For example, I think he needs to continue posting a positive TD to INT ratio, a good completion percentage and I'd like to see his average yards per attempt rise too. However, what's most important to me is how he actually performs in the context of the games. I want to see leadership, good decisions and improved accuracy but I think the real bottom line is sustaining drives and scoring. In other words, if he moves the team effectively, that's what matters most. I don't care if the drives end in rushing TDs or passing TDs but the more they end in TDs, the better and the more they end in scores as opposed to punts, the better. In the end, I think that's what playing QB is all about: moving the offense and scoring. It doesn't have to be pretty and it doesn't have to be statistically impressive, it just has to be effective.

I know what you are saying here, and I know you gave the most honest response that you could. With that said, people around here love stats--especially pretty stats--or, ya know, pointing out the ugly ones. Regardless, it's all about those stats, stats, stats. So, I'm hoping people choose to respond to this so I can have somewhat of a standard of what fans expect. Me, personally, I just care about wins. I don't care how ugly or pretty it is. Sure, I want it to be pretty, but a win is a win. But, we all know that people love those pretty QB stats; they make all the difference.

[mondry]

All I want to know is: What is going to define success and/or improvement for Ponder? This goes for people on both sides. Because I think we can all agree that some major improvements need to happen--and they should happen because that's his job as a leader of this football team--not to mention the better talent around him now. Everything points to him having much higher expectations this season. But, what is going to be good enough as far as numbers? People bring up his stats constantly, but realistically he can improve on all of his stats by a quite of bit and the Vikings may very well end up with a worse record--and may not even get close to the playoffs. What if, just what if, Ponder improves significantly in all major categories and our losses can't be mostly blamed on him? Then what? Is Ponder a keeper? Or didn't he do enough? Wasn't he that leader that we needed? What specific numbers are people looking for Ponder to reach to be considered "improved enough" to keep around? What's the new standard?

Honestly the numbers aren't that big of a deal, he really just needs to (in my book) play a few more games like he did against the 49ers and last GB game and even more games less like the ones at seattle and the first GB game.

Right now he's inconsistent so it leads to high mountains and low valleys. If he can get rid of the valleys, even if he flat lines or only makes small hills while keeping the rest big mountains that would be huge. If he can do that, -the rest of the stats will follow anyway-. He's had some really bad games, so there is plenty of room to pick up stats. If you take the 3 sub 100 yard passing games he had and bump them up to 200 yards passing we're talking about an extra 300+ yards right there and if he's improved that shouldn't be hard by any means.

The big one that would be nice is his yards per attempt going up to the high 6's or low 7's. He simply won't get the amount of attempts needed to compete in a lot of categories but the ones that are averaged out like that need to go up.

Edit for more of the stats you're looking for

20+ TD's, 12 or lower INT's, 3,500 to 4,000 yards (this really depends on if Adrian drops down to say a 1500 yard year, or hops up to that 2500 he's after, if he's approaching 2000+ again Ponder won't get to 4000) 6.7+ yards per attempt, 65% completion rate, 70 rushes (scrambles) for 300 yards, 3 rushing TD's. QBR 95+

[dead_poet]

The big one that would be nice is his yards per attempt going up to the high 6's or low 7's.

Here's my rub with this stat: what if he's asked to throw a healthy amount of designed screens/slants again this season? This naturally lowers his YPA through no fault of his own. Of course some are quick to speculate (or state as fact because it just feels true) that they ask him to do this because "it's all he can do" rather than to maximize the talents of Patterson/Wright/Jennings (and Harvin last season). I agree that I'd like to see his YPA rise, but he shouldn't be chastised for executing designed short throws.

[The Breeze]

@Melanie

Ponder is at zero with me. He hasn't done anything yet...positive or negative. He's shown what's possible in each of those directions without clearly establishing himself.

I want to see command of the offense and confidence in his throws. I want to see defenses have to adjust to his fluencey running the offense, rather than just teeing off on him play after play. If he will consistently step into his throws and commit and compete out there, all his measurables should go up.

The won loss record is a different thing to me. We got real lucky last season healthwise and in the kicking game. I worry that our defense could regress and make it harder to win games.
But if Ponder and the offense can run the system smoothly and have minimal TOs it should bode well all around.

If Ponder is still RiverDancing and\or leaving the pocket early and inaccurate because he's still scared out there by mid-season.....then I'll probably want him benched and have them draft someone else.