"The Next Step" for Christian Ponder

[radar55]

While we all hoped that Ponder would show the kind of skills that would qualify him as an NFL caliber QB, the reality is... he has not done so. The entire article is based on "IF" this happens and "IF" that happens would Ponder then make this team a contender for top 3 in the conference. Well I quess "IF" he all of a sudden somehow found out how to throw a deep ball and "IF" all of a sudden he found out how to read a defense and "IF" he quit staring down his primary receiver and "IF" he became comfortable in the pocket ect.ect.ect.

I truly am not trying to be negative but I am a realist and the point I'm trying to make is.....Ponder is who he is, and what makes anyone think he has changed??? Certainly this pre season showed NOTHING that would indicate his game has taken another step forward.

[mondry]

Well golly, I hope Ponder takes the next step too, who doesn't? I just don't see it. The guy has shown no signs of being the answer. But most of all, I'm glad we're striving for medicore and middle of the pack. Sounds like we finally discovered a championship winning formula in Minnesota. And does anyone else find it comical how much he has to improve just to jump up to average?

How much he has to improve to jump up to average? What do you consider average? What stats are you focusing on?

The one thing I like about this site is how it doesn't have a shortage of comedians. Look out Febreeze, looks like you've got some competition. Ponder ranked what, 29th or 30th last year? So if he jumps up to 25th that suddenly puts us in contention for homefield?

Again what did he rank 29th or 30th in? Can you at least be a bit more clear on which portion of his game you're bashing on?

Ponder ranked 25th in total yardage if that's what you mean. But considering we had no WR's and are a run first offense I'd say he's actually over achieving getting 25th. We rushed for 2634 yards as a team and that puts us at 5569 yards of offense combined with Ponder's 2935 passing. When the running game is that good, the passing game is always going to suffer.

For more perspective, let's look at passing attempts. He was 21st with 483 tries so he's already at a disadvantage compared to the top 20 making more attempts than him. Drew Brees for example threw the ball 187 more times than Ponder so there is no way he can compete stat wise to that. 7 other QB's threw it at least 100 times more than Ponder did! It's simple math when it comes down to it, Ponder is NEVER going to be above average in stats that require a high volume of attempts because he's NEVER going to get a HIGH enough volume to compete with them.

Or did you mean Interceptions? If we look at all QB's with at least 300 attempts, he ranks tied for 11th with only 12 interceptions. Maybe you meant completion percentage? In that case he ranks 13th of QB's with at least 300 attempts. Maybe TD's? 23rd. Ah here it is, this must be what you're talking about, his worst ranking, stat wise is yards per attempt, 31st at 6.08. Unfortunately that stat just isn't a big deal for our offense. After AD knocks it down to 3rd and 6 or better which he so often does it's Ponder's job to get the first down meaning a high completion percentage.

I'm also not worried about his YPA because now that he has some actual NFL caliber WR's look for that YPA to go way up. Harvin was the closest thing to it last year and guess what his game revolved around? Oh yeah, short little passes and getting hurt.

Now you're just trolling. Not even you believe you just wrote that. It might have slipped under the radar had you not tried to slip in the word "elite", but you went and got greedy.

Alright you got me, no I don't 100% believe that, it's obvious the elite running game with a demi god HB is what will keep this passing game from truly elite numbers. No way he gets to 727 attempts like Mathew Stafford LOL.

[Purple bruise]

While we all hoped that Ponder would show the kind of skills that would qualify him as an NFL caliber QB, the reality is... he has not done so. The entire article is based on "IF" this happens and "IF" that happens would Ponder then make this team a contender for top 3 in the conference. Well I quess "IF" he all of a sudden somehow found out how to throw a deep ball and "IF" all of a sudden he found out how to read a defense and "IF" he quit staring down his primary receiver and "IF" he became comfortable in the pocket ect.ect.ect.

I truly am not trying to be negative but I am a realist and the point I'm trying to make is.....Ponder is who he is, and what makes anyone think he has changed??? Certainly this pre season showed NOTHING that would indicate his game has taken another step forward.

Did you watch the 49ers game?. If not look at the re-run and watch how well the line blocked in pass protection and how the rbs picked up the blitz. It was pitiful and Cassel got a small taste of it in the Frisco game. That being said he did have some "bad" throws no doubt.
I certainly will not judge him based on the few quarters that he played in preseason.

[Mothman]

2-4 positive plays a game could potentially make him go from a poor rating to average. Is that your hope for the Vikings QB position? Average?

Shouldn't the hope be to have a winning QB on a championship team? That's my hope. If the Vikings QB can be on a team that does that, who cares where a bunch of hardcore football fans poring over TV broadcasts like the guys at PFF do rank him?

In the end, I want a QB who fits within the team's overall concept, executes the offense and leads them to victory. It doesn't matter to me if he's a superstar or a statistically average QB that just gets the job done. You can have an all-time great like Dan Marino and never win a championship. If Ponder can have a career that plays out more like that of Joe Flacco or Eli Manning, QBs who don't blow people away statistically every year but find themselves winning playoff games and the Super Bowl (2 in Manning's case) that would be just fine.

[mansquatch]

2-4 positive plays a game could potentially make him go from a poor rating to average. Is that your hope for the Vikings QB position? Average?

2-4 more positive plays puts him in the 3500 yard passing yardage category. Combined with our rusing attack that is a potent offense. I asked a question above that warrants additional consideration:

Ponder had 12 picks and ~3000 yards passing last year. The question is what will contribute more to us going from 10 wins to 12: 2 Less Picks or 500 more yards?

The crux of most arguments is that the downfield passing is piss poor and the yardage numbers are terrible. Not arguing the yardage is low, it is. But, the question above brings into focus the fact that a ton of yards doesn't equal wins. They need to be positive gains, ie not at a cost of more picks. Stafford had a crap ton of yards and attempts last year and he also turned the ball over. They went 4-12. Ponder had inferior yardage to Stafford, yet we went 10-6. POint being yardage is one point of improvement, but it isn't everything.

Regardless, what matters is consistency. The rest of this gets away from that key point. Again, why do the doubters say he'll be worse or just the same?

[Mothman]

Mondry, you made some good points with the stats you posted. Since fantasy football has greatly increased the focus on individual stats over the years, I think one of the stats that often gets overlooked is scoring. Now, it's a team stat so it's clearly influenced by a variety of factors but quarterbacks have an undeniable influence on sustaining drives, and helping teams get into scoring position. The 2012 Vikes finished 14th in the league in scoring. They were 19th in touchdowns and first in field goals. There are a variety of ways to interpret those stats but numbers are an indication of the effectiveness of the offense, among other things. They don't speak to an elite offense at all but they don't suggest awful QB performance either. The FG ranking tells us the Vikes need to get better at finishing drives and yes, Peterson had a lot to do with the team's offensive production. However, a QB inevitably plays a significant role in that production too. No team can truly hide their QB. Ponder could certainly be a lot better but he clearly led a relatively effective offense. It needs to be better and he needs to be better but history tells us that QBs who end up being good-to-great often start their careers with seasons and stats that aren't terribly different from Ponder's.

Again, it comes back to not knowing. I don't think it makes sense to dig in and say Ponder has already failed, that he's awful and he can't get the job done. It doesn't make sense to say he's completely proven himself either. We can't rush to the end of this story so we might as well be patient while it unfolds. One way or another, the end will take care of itself.

[dead_poet]

We can't rush to the end of this story so we might as well be patient while it unfolds.

[Mothman]

Where is that GIF from? It's awesome.

[dead_poet]

Where is that GIF from? It's awesome.

http://www.reactiongifs.com/

I don't know what the heck show that .gif was taken from, though. I just felt it was appropriate.

[Mothman]

I don't know what the heck show that .gif was taken from, though. I just felt it was appropriate.

It was appropriate! It certainly made me laugh.

Thanks for the link.

[Crax]

Again, why do the doubters say he'll be worse or just the same?

When you say "doubters", I fell like that's probably including me. I've never said worse or the same as last year, which IMO was poor. I just don't see a ceiling of higher than just average. That would be some improvement over the last 2 years, but I guess I'm looking for more. We've had a top 5 RB in the league(if not the top), A top 5 DE(possibly the top a couple years ago), and at one time, possibly two top 5 receivers in moss/carter. I just wish sometime in the next while we could get a top 5/10 QB in here(I guess Farve was probably top 5 in 09).

[mondry]

Mondry, you made some good points with the stats you posted. Since fantasy football has greatly increased the focus on individual stats over the years, I think one of the stats that often gets overlooked is scoring. Now, it's a team stat so it's clearly influenced by a variety of factors but quarterbacks have an undeniable influence on sustaining drives, and helping teams get into scoring position. The 2012 Vikes finished 14th in the league in scoring. They were 19th in touchdowns and first in field goals. There are a variety of ways to interpret those stats but numbers are an indication of the effectiveness of the offense, among other things. They don't speak to an elite offense at all but they don't suggest awful QB performance either. The FG ranking tells us the Vikes need to get better at finishing drives and yes, Peterson had a lot to do with the team's offensive production. However, a QB inevitably plays a significant role in that production too. No team can truly hide their QB. Ponder could certainly be a lot better but he clearly led a relatively effective offense. It needs to be better and he needs to be better but history tells us that QBs who end up being good-to-great often start their careers with seasons and stats that aren't terribly different from Ponder's.

Again, it comes back to not knowing. I don't think it makes sense to dig in and say Ponder has already failed, that he's awful and he can't get the job done. It doesn't make sense to say he's completely proven himself either. We can't rush to the end of this story so we might as well be patient while it unfolds. One way or another, the end will take care of itself.

I agree with you in principle, in that there is no way to know, but if we were all happy with that assessment we wouldn't have 5 continually ongoing Ponder threads. (seems like if one dies another rises to take it's place!) Part of the fun is indeed trying to predict what the future holds and hey if you're good at it, it's one of the most profitable talents to have.

Now in that business there are trends, they can be upward, downward, stagnant etc. I believe Ponder is on an upward trend for a number of reasons. As a whole, his stats significantly improved from his first year. Within the season, he faced adversity and struggled (the whole offense did) however, he(they) were able to "right the ship" if you will and over come those challenges. Poor QB's don't do that. Poor QB's can't rattle off 4 wins once their safety net goes on injured reserve (Harvin) against tough competition in a do or die situation to make the playoffs. Of course we're missing the data from the playoff game(s) that would have largely helped advance this situation if Ponder could have played in them.

Blaine Gabbert is a good example of a QB I'd already want to replace. He started off horrible, and remained horrible right up until he got hurt, his trend is downward imo. Ponder however, has shown us he can be a big time quarter back for stretches and after all of my analysis and research, it seems highly plausible with better weapons to work with and more time in the league, that he's only going to continue to improve on his 2012 campaign. I see no reason for him to regress or stagnate given all of the variables.

A lot of people are over valuing the preseason data when it comes to the negative. Given what we know about the preseason now, it's pretty clear they didn't want to expose Ponder much to injury and given how different our regular season offense is compared to what they would be capable of running in preseason, it makes sense to get through it with as little risk to injury as possible. Fact is we weren't going to play Peterson at all, yet he's the focal point of the offense. We weren't going to bring out anything new and Ponder knows how to run a typical vanilla offense. The coaching staff wanted them to go through the motions and get off the field. Personally I'm not advocating that is the right strategy but as it is it's hard to put Ponder's preseason play to any meaningful value.

Again I agree we can't know one way or the other, and for your own sanity's sake I can fully understand taking a "here's the for and against, now we just have to wait" approach. Considering some of the negative arguments I've seen here that is probably the way to go! I like our chances with Ponder though and I love taking up that argument. I laugh so hard being called a Ponder apologist, these guys have so much passion against him it's a lot of fun.

[Mothman]

For someone who normally thinks and posts with a sound mind, I find it surprising how much hate you have for Favre. You do know he will go down in Vikings history as having the 2nd best single performance season EVER right?

Yes, I know but I honestly don't care. Thank you for saying I normally think and post with a sound mind. That's a nice compliment and it's certainly something i try to do!

I wouldn't describe my feelings about Favre as "hate" so if they've come off that way, I've done a poor job of communicating them. I'll admit that after rooting against him for 16 years, I wasn't exactly eager to cheer for him but if the Vikes could sign Aaron Rodgers tomorrow, I wouldn't care one iota that he'd spent his entire pro career up to this point as a Packer because unlike Favre, he's in his prime with what should be many good years ahead of him. I don't care that Jennings was a Packer, I didn't care that Longwell was a Packer, etc. That really doesn't matter.

My problem with the Vikings signing Favre was, ironically, similar to the problem many people have with Ponder. I thought it was ultimately a waste of time and I still think it was a waste of time. I never believed the combination of Favre and Childress could lead the Vikings to a Super Bowl win and as much as everybody loved that 2009 season, that turned out to be an accurate assessment. Favre was an old band-aid that just pushed the effort to find a long-term solution at QB back two years and delayed a rebuilding process that should have begun earlier. Instead, in an effort to "win now", the team held onto aging players too long and managed personnel in a way that led directly to the dismal 3-13 season that followed. Several of us saw that fall coming a year or two earlier which just made it all the more frustrating.

So, I'd like to believe I'm thinking rationally about Favre as well. I definitely don't hate the man. I just disliked the decision to sign him and absolutely hated the decision to bring him back in 2010. In the long run, despite a really good season in 2009, I think it was bad for the team. I realize that in the end, committing to Ponder for 3 years could be bad for the Vikings too if the commitment doesn't pay off but I think taking a swing at developing a young QB is very different from using an aging stopgap. A team without a franchise QB has to either develop one or find one by other means. A 39 year old has no chance to be a franchise QB.

Now, I did hate the insane hype and the bizarre cult of hero worshippers that followed Favre to Minnesota but that wasn't Favre's fault...

[Mothman]

I agree with you in principle, in that there is no way to know, but if we were all happy with that assessment we wouldn't have 5 continually ongoing Ponder threads. (seems like if one dies another rises to take it's place!)

It's the hydra of VMB topics!

Now in that business there are trends, they can be upward, downward, stagnant etc. I believe Ponder is on an upward trend for a number of reasons. As a whole, his stats significantly improved from his first year. Within the season, he faced adversity and struggled (the whole offense did) however, he(they) were able to "right the ship" if you will and over come those challenges. Poor QB's don't do that. Poor QB's can't rattle off 4 wins once their safety net goes on injured reserve (Harvin) against tough competition in a do or die situation to make the playoffs. Of course we're missing the data from the playoff game(s) that would have largely helped advance this situation if Ponder could have played in them.

Blaine Gabbert is a good example of a QB I'd already want to replace. He started off horrible, and remained horrible right up until he got hurt, his trend is downward imo. Ponder however, has shown us he can be a big time quarter back for stretches and after all of my analysis and research, it seems highly plausible with better weapons to work with and more time in the league, that he's only going to continue to improve on his 2012 campaign. I see no reason for him to regress or stagnate given all of the variables.

Well said. I'm pretty much with you on all of the above, although (unfortunately) I do think stagnation is a possibility. I hope it doesn't happen but some players just reach a certain level and never get beyond it. it's way too soon to tell if that's the case with Ponder but it could go that way. He could also get considerably better.

A lot of people are over valuing the preseason data when it comes to the negative. Given what we know about the preseason now, it's pretty clear they didn't want to expose Ponder much to injury and given how different our regular season offense is compared to what they would be capable of running in preseason, it makes sense to get through it with as little risk to injury as possible.

I get the impression I missed something. When you say "given what we know about the preseason now" are you referring to something that was recently in the news?

Fact is we weren't going to play Peterson at all, yet he's the focal point of the offense. We weren't going to bring out anything new and Ponder knows how to run a typical vanilla offense. The coaching staff wanted them to go through the motions and get off the field. Personally I'm not advocating that is the right strategy but as it is it's hard to put Ponder's preseason play to any meaningful value.

I obviously agree with you about that since I've been saying for weeks that the preseason is meaningless as an indicator of what we can expect in the regular season.

Again I agree we can't know one way or the other, and for your own sanity's sake I can fully understand taking a "here's the for and against, now we just have to wait" approach. Considering some of the negative arguments I've seen here that is probably the way to go! I like our chances with Ponder though and I love taking up that argument. I laugh so hard being called a Ponder apologist, these guys have so much passion against him it's a lot of fun.

LOL!

[J. Kapp 11]

Interesting article.

Top 3 team? I think that goes much further than Christian Ponder's performance. From what I (and many other Vikings fans) can see, the linebacker play is an enormous question mark, and cornerback play is troubling. Chris Cook, with the "he could be great if he could stay on the field" label plastered across his forehead like a scarlet letter, is still showing signs of a lack of durability. Josh Robinson seems to be going backward in a big way. Xavier Rhodes is a rookie. A.J. Jefferson is, well, A.J. Jefferson. This scares me as much, if not more, than Ponder. And don't even get me started on the linebacking corps.

As for Ponder, he impressed me at the beginning of the year, and he impressed me at the end. But in the middle, he lost the trust of many Vikings fans, including me. We talk about the sub-100-yard games. But then there are efforts like the Tampa game, where he finished with more than 100 yards but was perhaps worse than he was in any other game -- against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. I was at that game, and he was absolutely horrible in every way, throwing for most of his passing yards in the fourth quarter when the Vikings were hopelessly behind. Is it fair to pin all the blame on him? Maybe not. But he is the quarterback, the No. 12 pick in the draft, and at some point has to be held accountable.

Don't get me wrong. I WANT this kid to succeed. I think he has the physical tools to succeed. But he has yet to prove to me that he can sustain success. Until he does, I won't believe that he has taken the next step. I hope very much that he does it.