"The Next Step" for Christian Ponder

[Mothman]

Exactly. There wasn't a single thing in this article that was new.

That's true, I just thought he had a good perspective on it.

[mansquatch]

If Ponder gets any better (he's already pretty solid) we'll have a first round bye. If he can take the "next step" I see that 10-6 going to 13-3 pretty easily. He's already where we need to be in a lot of the important categories like completion percentage and Int's. Those are the two stats he could really control himself. The others like yardage and yards per attempt are too dependent on the receivers actually having the talent and ability to get open down the field and the o-line to block long enough for those plays to develop.

The offensive line will probably still hold this passing game back from being truly elite and we can improve that next draft but with Jennings, Wright, Simpson, Patterson, and Rudolph he now has the talent around him in the skill positions to easily hit that 3500 mark and I'm sure he will. Unless something really strange happens and Ponder magically gets worse I think we've found our long term answer at QB and I'm sure spielman agrees.

He'll be here for many more years, I can almost guarantee it.

The guys harping on the yardage do have a point, but for me that should come with the addition of talent and of building up Ponder's confidence in the players around him.

My prediction is that this will be a year where Ponder will start off just OK, but will get better as the season progresses. I really think it is going to take a few weeks for him to get comfortable with all the guys around him. It is like this for most QBs to be honest, SEPT in the NFL is a month of slop and luck. If Ponder has taken the step, then I think we'll see him hit stride in Oct/Nov.

Very interested to see them run some of the short PH stuff with CP. He looks to have the moves for that kind of game. That tore up a lot of defenses when Harvin was doing it.

[Mothman]

The guys harping on the yardage do have a point, but for me that should come with the addition of talent and of building up Ponder's confidence in the players around him.

Exactly. I think we can all agree that sub-100 yard passing performances are not acceptable from the passing game. However, they are a consequence of the entire passing offense, not just the quarterback, so to avoid repeating any more of those frustrating performances and to improve on the total amount of passing yardage gained over the course of the season, the passing offense as a whole must be better.

Ponder needs to be assertive and he needs to push the ball downfield more (not just deep but down the field). That's going to be part of taking the next step in his development. The confidence you mentioned is a part of that too so the players around him need to come through for him. It's a two-way street.

My prediction is that this will be a year where Ponder will start off just OK, but will get better as the season progresses. I really think it is going to take a few weeks for him to get comfortable with all the guys around him. It is like this for most QBs to be honest, SEPT in the NFL is a month of slop and luck. If Ponder has taken the step, then I think we'll see him hit stride in Oct/Nov.

I agree and hopefully, the Vikes will get enough luck with the slop to win some tough games in September.

Very interested to see them run some of the short PH stuff with CP. He looks to have the moves for that kind of game. That tore up a lot of defenses when Harvin was doing it.

I'm hoping he and Ponder can develop a nice rapport on crossing routes and slants. Patterson should be able to turn routes like that into some big gains but those patterns rely on timing and accuracy from both QB and receiver.

[The Breeze]

Having a great running game helps a good deal in September, As long as the defense can hang in there and keep things close, maybe get a few turnovers, and they won't need to be too lucky. Lucky cetainly doesn't hurt, but it's not uncommon for one side of the ball to carry the team for stretches.

I'd like to see the D come out strong and take some of the early pressure off the offense.

[Reignman]

Well golly, I hope Ponder takes the next step too, who doesn't? I just don't see it. The guy has shown no signs of being the answer. But most of all, I'm glad we're striving for medicore and middle of the pack. Sounds like we finally discovered a championship winning formula in Minnesota. And does anyone else find it comical how much he has to improve just to jump up to average?

Thank you for the link Jim. And about trying to keep the discussion reasonable fat chance with the doomsdays boys

I'm guessing you're required to wear a giant padded helmet much like the one in your avatar? What you really just said was, "thanks for keeping the discussion reasonable, now watch while I immediately make it unreasonable by taunting those that don't agree with us". I'm glad you're on that side of the argument.

This guy, this guy gets it.

Warms my heart.

It's getting harder and harder to take you Ponder apologists seriously. Favre arguably delivers one of the greatest passing seasons in Viking history and nearly takes us to a bowl, but you hated every moment. Oh no, he's an ex Packer and has cooties. Now you wet yourselves watching Flounder throw rainbows to the turf while he rides AD to a one and done 6th seed. Forgive me while I question your judgment going forward.

If Ponder gets any better (he's already pretty solid) we'll have a first round bye.

The one thing I like about this site is how it doesn't have a shortage of comedians. Look out Febreeze, looks like you've got some competition. Ponder ranked what, 29th or 30th last year? So if he jumps up to 25th that suddenly puts us in contention for homefield?

The offensive line will probably still hold this passing game back from being truly elite

Now you're just trolling. Not even you believe you just wrote that. It might have slipped under the radar had you not tried to slip in the word "elite", but you went and got greedy.

[mansquatch]

I generally avoid feeding trolls, but it's Friday so what the heck.

Reignman, you have a history of Ponder dislike since joining this board. Good for you. However, I've yet to see you make a persuasive case based on evidence. I have found that you and your fellow bandwagon members fail to address a key point: Why do you all believe that Ponder will fail in 2013? I'm sure there is reason to think this way. There is also reason think he will succeed. So there is your challenge: Make a well reasoned case and convince me.

I'm assuming you have more to stand on than just invective? Or is that all you are, just talk? You know what they say in Missouri: Show Me.

[Purple bruise]

I generally avoid feeding trolls, but it's Friday so what the heck.

Reignman, you have a history of Ponder dislike since joining this board. Good for you. However, I've yet to see you make a persuasive case based on evidence. I have found that you and your fellow bandwagon members fail to address a key point: Why do you all believe that Ponder will fail in 2013? I'm sure there is reason to think this way. There is also reason think he will succeed. So there is your challenge: Make a well reasoned case and convince me.

I'm assuming you have more to stand on than just invective? Or is that all you are, just talk? You know what they say in Missouri: Show Me.

You nailed that and I loved the way he blamed me for getting him into this topic and once again started his doomsday machine rolling
It is hard not to feed the trolls even when you do not want to

[Crax]

Why do you all believe that Ponder will fail in 2013? I'm sure there is reason to think this way. There is also reason think he will succeed. So there is your challenge: Make a well reasoned case and convince me.
..
Or is that all you are, just talk? You know what they say in Missouri: Show Me.

If you're going to call people out, feel free to do it yourself. Show Me why Ponder will succeed and not be another mediocre viking qb.

[The Breeze]

Frankly, I'll be surprised if Ponder makes the 53~

[mosscarter]

the next step for ponder is a career as a back up qb

[Mothman]

If you're going to call people out, feel free to do it yourself. Show Me why Ponder will succeed and not be another mediocre viking qb.

... and if you're going to call him out, you should...

I'm just kidding. I think Mansquatch's underlying point was for Reignman to post a reasonable argument to support his views instead of just antagonizing or mocking people.

I can make a well-reasoned case for or against Ponder and that's the crax of the whole Ponder debate, Crux (er, I mean it's the crux of the whole debate, Crax). There IS no truly convincing argument to be made that Ponder will succeed or fail. That's why he's a lightning rod for debate and why the debate gets so polarized. Nobody really has the answers which is probably why Ponder is still the starter and the Vikings haven't moved on. Even they don't know if he will ultimately succeed or fail as their quarterback.

I'm not going to spend the whole morning on this but in a nutshell, the cases go as follows:

AGAINST
Ponder's stats are subpar for a starting quarterback. His yards per attempt stat is low (as are metrics like adjusted yards per attempt), his total yardage stats are low, he's had near-100 and sub-100 yard passing performances, etc.

Physical aspects of Ponder's game aren't sufficiently impressive. His arm is weak, his passes are too inaccurate, his footwork and mechanics break down too often, he throws a poor deep ball, etc.

The mental aspects of his game aren't good enough either. He lacks pocket presence, panics too easily, doesn't go through his progressions, is unwilling to pull the trigger and fit passes into tight windows, settles for too many short passes and checkdowns, is indecisive, etc. He makes bad decisions and throws interceptions.

The quality and performance of the talent around him is no excuse for his performance. he should make those players better.

FOR
Ponder improved in nearly every statistical category from his first season to his second, made fewer mistakes and generally showed progress. He has demonstrated that he can utilize proper footwork, that his arm strength is sufficient to complete passes at all levels of the field, that he can deliver the ball accurately, etc. He has not developed sufficient consistency in these areas but as with many QBs, that should come with time.

He understands the offense and how to go through his progressions but he sometimes rushes through them. He makes the occasional bad decision but that isn't unusual for a QB at his level of development. He should be able to continue reducing their frequency as he did from his first season to his second. He's been an efficient red zone quarterback and has been able to lead the team back into some games when they've fallen behind.

His development has been somewhat hindered by the talent and circumstances around him. The team has lacked receiving talent over the course of his career and he's played behind bad-to-erratic pass protection). As the talent around him improves and he is able to build trust and chemistry with them, he should grow further into his role as a starter.

-------------------

Is either of those arguments truly convincing? I'd say no, but they're both plausible which is why the jury is out on Ponder. He's been inconsistent. A lot of the shortcomings in his game are relatively common for a young, developing quarterback. His ability to overcome them is anybody's guess but I think the most honest assessment is probably just that we don't know how his career is going to turn out or even how he'll perform in 2013. As mansquatch posted earlier: Do we get more Jekyl or more Hyde? Nobody really knows, which is why, personally, I don't think it makes sense to dig in, take an absolutely firm stand and say "he is (or will be) a success or "he is (or will be) a failure".

[Purple bruise]

... and if you're going to call him out, you should...

I'm just kidding. I think Mansquatch's underlying point was for Reignman to post a reasonable argument to support his views instead of just antagonizing or mocking people.

I can make a well-reasoned case for or against Ponder and that's the crax of the whole Ponder debate, Crux (er, I mean it's the crux of the whole debate, Crax). There IS no truly convincing argument to be made that Ponder will succeed or fail. That's why he's a lightning rod for debate and why the debate gets so polarized. Nobody really has the answers which is probably why Ponder is still the starter and the Vikings haven't moved on. Even they don't know if he will ultimately succeed or fail as their quarterback.

I'm not going to spend the whole morning on this but in a nutshell, the cases go as follows:

AGAINST
Ponder's stats are subpar for a starting quarterback. His yards per attempt stat is low (as are metrics like adjusted yards per attempt), his total yardage stats are low, he's had near-100 and sub-100 yard passing performances, etc.

Physical aspects of Ponder's game aren't sufficiently impressive. His arm is weak, his passes are too inaccurate, his footwork and mechanics break down too often, he throws a poor deep ball, etc.

The mental aspects of his game aren't good enough either. He lacks pocket presence, panics too easily, doesn't go through his progressions, is unwilling to pull the trigger and fit passes into tight windows, settles for too many short passes and checkdowns, is indecisive, etc. He makes bad decisions and throws interceptions.

The quality and performance of the talent around him is no excuse for his performance. he should make those players better.

FOR
Ponder improved in nearly every statistical category from his first season to his second, made fewer mistakes and generally showed progress. He has demonstrated that he can utilize proper footwork, that his arm strength is sufficient to complete passes at all levels of the field, that he can deliver the ball accurately, etc. He has not developed sufficient consistency in these areas but as with many QBs, that should come with time.

He understands the offense and how to go through his progressions but he sometimes rushes through them. He makes the occasional bad decision but that isn't unusual for a QB at his level of development. He should be able to continue reducing their frequency as he did from his first season to his second. He's been an efficient red zone quarterback and has been able to lead the team back into some games when they've fallen behind.

His development has been somewhat hindered by the talent and circumstances around him. The team has lacked receiving talent over the course of his career and he's played behind bad-to-erratic pass protection). As the talent around him improves and he is able to build trust and chemistry with them, he should grow further into his role as a starter.

-------------------

Is either of those arguments truly convincing? I'd say no, but they're both plausible which is why the jury is out on Ponder. He's been inconsistent. A lot of the shortcomings in his game are relatively common for a young, developing quarterback. His ability to overcome them is anybody's guess but I think the most honest assessment is probably just that we don't know how his career is going to turn out or even how he'll perform in 2013. As mansquatch posted earlier: Do we get more Jekyl or more Hyde? Nobody really knows, which is why, personally, I don't think it makes sense to dig in, take an absolutely firm stand and say "he is (or will be) a success or "he is (or will be) a failure".

I would agree with these assesments but in the "for" column I would definately add the fact that he is quite mobile and is a threat to take off and run with the ball and pick up first downs with his legs (he has done this numerous times). Also I would add that his sack totals would be doubled if he was not able to often times escape the rush. Again I will say that this is the year that he must make a big step forward. I think that the only thing that will hinder this is the crappy pass protecting line that is protecting him for about 2 whole seconds. If the line holds up and there in hardly any improvement on his part then I say that it will be time for a change.

[mansquatch]

I've stated my opinions on Ponder numerous times. As was said earlier in this post there really is nothing new: It comes down to consistency.

My argument for Ponder is the same as the arugment against Ponder, it was made by the QB coach last year. He basically said "We've seen Ponder do all the right things on tape and we've seen him not do them". So goes the whole Ponder debate. So to my original question: Why does someone think Ponder will be less consistent in 2013? Remove all the hyperbole and that is the psoition the Ponder bashres are taking. All I'm asking is why?

I do not find this position compelling. We've substantially upgraded the pass catching talent around Ponder. Ponder knows his job depends on his being more consistent. All of the coaching/training he recieves is towards being more consistent. So in short: All the external forces are pushing him towards more consistency. And to the QB coach's point, we've seen Ponder make the throws and the decisions. In short he can do it.

So for those saying he can't do it, they are basically saying we are going to get more, probably a lot more, Mr. Hyde than we got in 2013. Again Why? Conversely, those of us saying we'll get less hyde are basically saying he'll be more consistent. Utlimately the question is how much more consistent. As was stated at the start of this post, the range was 3250-3500 yards. As I pointed out, that is ~35 more passing yards a game. To me this is a very attainable goal, that is at worst 2-4 more positive plays a game.

All in all 2-4 more positive plays a game seems far more likely to occur than a complete disintegration. Opinion yes, but we are talking about what will happen, not what has happened.

That is completely different than a post filled with insults and invective minus the hard evidence.

[Crax]

So for those saying he can't do it, they are basically saying we are going to get more, probably a lot more, Mr. Hyde than we got in 2013. Again Why? Conversely, those of us saying we'll get less hyde are basically saying he'll be more consistent. Utlimately the question is how much more consistent. As was stated at the start of this post, the range was 3250-3500 yards. As I pointed out, that is ~35 more passing yards a game. To me this is a very attainable goal, that is at worst 2-4 more positive plays a game.

I can't speak for everyone, but I don't recall saying he was going to get worse this year. I don't remember anyone making that argument. I do recall seeing people talk about poor footwork and other things they've seen this preseason that leads them to believe he'll still be average at best. I realize people may dislike certain ratings for one reason or another, but as far as a general overall view goes, I don't they are that far off for where a QB ranks when compared to peers.
2012, PFF ranked ponder as the 34th best QB, NFL QB rating was 24th
2011, PFF had him 31st, NFL QB rating was 35th

Those aren't good. His best one for those two years is 24th for QB rating. That puts him down at the bottom of the league and at the same time, he has what one could call the best RB in the game behind him. It's not that I don't think Ponder can get better, I just don't believe he'll ever be in the upper-echelon of QB's. It's not that I don't believe ponder can reach "average", it's that I want/expect more than mediocre. Do you personally believe Ponder can get to around top 15 qb's in the league? Out of 32 teams, being 15 would be right in the middle and ponder hasn't been able to get there yet.

All in all 2-4 more positive plays a game seems far more likely to occur than a complete disintegration. Opinion yes, but we are talking about what will happen, not what has happened.

2-4 positive plays a game could potentially make him go from a poor rating to average. Is that your hope for the Vikings QB position? Average?

[Mothman]

I would agree with these assesments but in the "for" column I would definately add the fact that he is quite mobile and is a threat to take off and run with the ball and pick up first downs with his legs (he has done this numerous times). Also I would add that his sack totals would be doubled if he was not able to often times escape the rush.

Excellent points. They both belong in the "for" column. I also should have included a 10-6 record in his first full season as a starter and the "Against' column could probably contain more too (for example, he doesn't always protect the ball as well he should).

As I said, I didn't want to spend the whole morning writing so both arguments could be more thorough. In the end, I think they end up at the same place anyway. There's just no way to know if Ponder's career is going up or down from here.