"The Next Step" for Christian Ponder

[Mothman]

Yes, this is another thread about Christian Ponder. I'm creating it specifically to call attention to an excellent piece Ben Goessling posted on ESPN's site today as a follow-up to a chat about the Vikings. Here's a link to it:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... out-ponder

Apparently, the last question Goessling addressed in his chat was: "If Ponder does indeed take the next step are they a top 3 team in the NFC?". Here's how he began expanding on the question (the rest is at the link and is worth reading):

I'd define "the next step" to be something around 3,250-3,500 yards passing, 24 TDs, a completion percentage over 60 percent and 10-12 picks. If he does that, are the Vikings a top-3 team in the conference? They'd certainly have the talent to be. Their offense would be pretty darn tough to stop, and while their defense doesn't create enough turnovers, that pass rush can solve a lot of problems. The conference will be tough at the top, with San Francisco, Seattle, Atlanta and Green Bay (the top four teams from a year ago) all with high hopes, but if Ponder takes the mythical "next step," there's no reason the Vikings can't tangle with those teams. Much of this year really does hinge on Ponder, and we'll talk plenty about his progress.

Now, if Ponder had the kind of season I mentioned in the chat, I doubt many Vikings fans would complain about it. But is Ponder capable of that kind of a jump in Year 3?

Last year, he completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 2,935 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Ponder threw 483 times and averaged 6.1 yards per attempt, so to get to 3,250 would require Ponder to average 6.7 yards on the same number of attempts. That figure would have still tied him for 25th in the league last year, and a 7.25 yards-per-attempt average -- the figure necessary to get him to 3,500 yards -- would have put Ponder right around 14th in the league last year. He figures to get more help after the catch from Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson than he had a year ago, when his best open-field threat (Percy Harvin) was only available for half the season, but Ponder would have to be confident enough to drive the ball downfield a little more often than he was a year ago.

He goes on to talk about red zone passing and comparisons Spielman has made between Ponder's numbers and the numbers Eli Manning and Drew Brees had through 2 seasons. It really is worth reading and I think Goessling provides both a reasonable idea of what would constitute "the next step" for Ponder and what the Vikings QB needs to do to get there. Can we please try to keep the discussion in this thread reasonable too?

[Funkytown]

Already, Ponder's 18 touchdown passes last year were the second-highest number by a quarterback in Adrian Peterson's career, trailing Brett Favre's 33 in 2009.

...interesting. I bet Peterson misses Favre. I do some days.

With something approaching above-average quarterbacking, the Vikings' offense should be formidable, and they have the makings of a solid defense. That's why so much attention is being paid to Ponder this season, and why we'll continue to talk about him so often in our conversations to come.

...

Oh...and yay! Many more Ponder conversations to come! This is what I've been asking for! Goodie!

[Mothman]

...interesting. I bet Peterson misses Favre. I do some days.

The only thing I miss about Favre is watching the Vikings sack or intercept him when he was a Packer.

[mansquatch]

To start off: Gosseling's analysis is the closest thing I've read to my current take on the Vikings in 2013.

I would contend that on yardage, if Harvin hadn't gone down half way through the season Ponder would have hit at least the 3250 threshold last year. TDs are a different story. To get to 3500 yards and 25 TDs, Ponder would need to avg 35.31 more yards per game and 0.44 more TD per game. I don't see 35 yards as being that big of a hurdle for him to overcome. That is asking for probably 3-5 more positive plays over a game. Given the improvements at WR this should be rather attainable.

TDs are harder to predict, but I agree with Gosseling's analysis.

Note that Ponder achieved the INT Goal last season. I stiill think this is the most under appreciated Ponder stat. Frankly it begs a question for all those bashing the yardage stats:

What would win the Vikings more football games? 500 more passing yards or 2 less INT? I

[Purple bruise]

Yes, this is another thread about Christian Ponder. I'm creating it specifically to call attention to an excellent piece Ben Goessling posted on ESPN's site today as a follow-up to a chat about the Vikings. Here's a link to it:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... out-ponder

Apparently, the last question Goessling addressed in his chat was: "If Ponder does indeed take the next step are they a top 3 team in the NFC?". Here's how he began expanding on the question (the rest is at the link and is worth reading):
He goes on to talk about red zone passing and comparisons Spielman has made between Ponder's numbers and the numbers Eli Manning and Drew Brees had through 2 seasons. It really is worth reading and I think Goessling provides both a reasonable idea of what would constitute "the next step" for Ponder and what the Vikings QB needs to do to get there. Can we please try to keep the discussion in this thread reasonable too?

Thank you for the link Jim. And about trying to keep the discussion reasonable fat chance with the doomsdays boys

[Mothman]

Adrian is going to do his thing regardless. So, yes this year is going to ride or die based on our QB's production (or lack thereof).
I would love to see Ponder take another step in his progression. Especially a big step. Baby step period should be over with by now. We need him to go to a whole new level.
He has the talented help in place. So this year is pretty much what Ponder will be in the NFL. The preseason has been tough to watch thus far so that has me a little nervous for the start of the season, but I think maybe they don't really want expose all their tricks in the preseason and there is still timing and gelling of this group to be had. I just hope they can do enough to stay in the games for the first few weeks and see if we can get rolling. And if so it should be smooth sailing, if not, then damn! it's going to be a long year.

I know I just kinda rambled on here....

You may have rambled but you made sense. I'm sure the Vikes playbook has more to offer than what they've called this preseason and you touched on an important point: the passing game almost certainly needs some time to gel. Hopefully it will but I expect a few growing pains. Hopefully, the team will be good enough to get some wins early even if the passing game isn't firing on all cylinders.

[Mothman]

To start off: Gosseling's analysis is the closest thing I've read to my current take on the Vikings in 2013.

I would contend that on yardage, if Harvin hadn't gone down half way through the season Ponder would have hit at least the 3250 threshold last year. TDs are a different story. To get to 3500 yards and 25 TDs, Ponder would need to avg 35.31 more yards per game and 0.44 more TD per game. I don't see 35 yards as being that big of a hurdle for him to overcome. That is asking for probably 3-5 more positive plays over a game. Given the improvements at WR this should be rather attainable.

TDs are harder to predict, but I agree with Gosseling's analysis.

I do too and like you, I find his take is close to my own.

If Harvin had stayed healthy, it seems likely Ponder would have been closer to 3250 yards passing and definitely over the 3000 yard mark. Harvin was very productive with Ponder as the starting QB. Over the course of the 19 games they played in together, Harvin caught 124 passes for 1383 yards. Ponder missed significant time in two of those games in 2011 (@ DET and @WAS). If you remove those games, the numbers are 109 catches for 1249 yards. Either way, it averages out to about 73 yards receiving per game (1168 over a 16 game season).

Anyway, as you said, an additional 35 yards passing per game is certainly an attainable goal. Getting 6 or 7 more passing TDs is dependent on a lot of variables but if the WR corps really is improved that's an attainable goal too. Ponder will have to be more assertive and AD is always going to get his share of carries and TDs when the Vikes are in scoring position but these benchmarks aren't out of reach and I don't think they'd need to be hit exactly anyway. Wins remain the bottom line.

[Mothman]

The bigger question is how long will the Vikings wait for Ponder to take that "next step"? One more season? Two more? 8 games? If Ponder has failed to improve or shows miniscule or insignificant improvement, how much longer would the team keep Christian Ponder in the huddle?

As the saying goes, they'll cross that bridge when they come to it but my guess is that he'll get this season unless he's so awful that Frazier feels his job is in jeopardy. Anything beyond this season will depend on his overall performance. However, I think the core question is will he take the next step? Everything else follows the answer to that.

[mansquatch]

Really it ultimately comes down to the same thing we've been saying on here since probably Janaury: Do you get more Jekyl or more Hyde? If he can level out his season and get rid of those 100 yard non performance games like we saw in the middle of last season then the goals will take care of themselves in terms of yardage. All the hyper over-analysis of this guy is nauseating, it boils down to consisteny. Can he consistently be Jekyl?

Another aspect of Gosseling's article that I found interesting was the idea that the Vikings are a top 3 NFC team if Ponder achieves their benchmarks. That seems to fly in the face of the analysis they posted just yesterday in the smae blog projecting the Vikings as an 8-8 team. I think they are 8-8 if Injuries hit and Ponder regresses. If he hits 3500 yards, then 12 wins is attainable as is a playoff win (or two).

[King James]

Already, Ponder's 18 touchdown passes last year were the second-highest number by a quarterback in Adrian Peterson's career, trailing Brett Favre's 33 in 2009.

That's not saying much. Outside of Favre, look at the QBs we've had during Peterson's career. T-Jack, Gus Ferotte, Donovan McNabb, Brooks Bollinger, and Kelly Holcomb. None of these guys were any good during their stint in purple. Even before Peterson came, the Vikings were struggling to find a decent QB since they drafted Duante Culpepper. So comparing his number to a bunch of back-ups and an old washed up has been like McNabb is laughable.

[mansquatch]

I think the Stubborness concerns are over blown. The basis of that thought process was the experience we had with TJoke and more importantly, Childress. The first thing this management team did was send TJack packing and draft a new QB. They've said from the beginning they think it will take 3 years to determine if a QB is viable. They've also said this is Ponder's 3rd year.

Given that the trademark Childress stubborness has been no where to be seen in this incarnation of the Vikings I see no reason to think that brand of idiocy would materilze should Ponder fail. Quite simply, Childress is gone. The one reality is that if he does fail, the options are Cassel and MBT, so it might take a season to draft a reasonable replacement. (a bad season...)

[Mothman]

Problem is, we are one of the few teams capable of making the playoffs with below average QB play. So what happens if Ponder has another Rorshach test-like season again, and we have a winning record or make the playoffs? I worry the Vikings will return to that rut where we are one QB away from being an elite team, and we stubbornly stick with Ponder because his completion percentage is "good" and his actual number of interceptions aren't that high and we spend all day patting ourselves on the back that we "made the playoffs two years in a row!" (and eliminated immediately two times in a row.) If Ponder fails to take that next step will the Vikings move on from him, or will they take a "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" approach to replacing Ponder with someone better?

All we can do is wait and see. Hopefully, he'll take that step and the question won't need to be asked. Either way, it's a concern that can't be addressed until we see what this season brings.

[RandallioCobb18]

The only thing I miss about Favre is watching the Vikings sack or intercept him when he was a Packer.

This guy, this guy gets it.

Warms my heart.

[mondry]

If Ponder gets any better (he's already pretty solid) we'll have a first round bye. If he can take the "next step" I see that 10-6 going to 13-3 pretty easily. He's already where we need to be in a lot of the important categories like completion percentage and Int's. Those are the two stats he could really control himself. The others like yardage and yards per attempt are too dependent on the receivers actually having the talent and ability to get open down the field and the o-line to block long enough for those plays to develop.

The offensive line will probably still hold this passing game back from being truly elite and we can improve that next draft but with Jennings, Wright, Simpson, Patterson, and Rudolph he now has the talent around him in the skill positions to easily hit that 3500 mark and I'm sure he will. Unless something really strange happens and Ponder magically gets worse I think we've found our long term answer at QB and I'm sure spielman agrees.

He'll be here for many more years, I can almost guarantee it.

[Eli]

Really it ultimately comes down to the same thing we've been saying on here since probably Janaury

Exactly. There wasn't a single thing in this article that was new.