Vikings Final Four Wins analysis (Ponder)

[mondry]

So we've all looked at the stats and see 91 yards passing, 131 yards passing, etc so instead of just focusing on that, I want to look at the CONTEXT within each game. Thus I'll mostly be focusing on the significant plays such as turn overs and scoring drives.

Game 1 Vs Chicago

First play of the game Peterson runs for 51 yards. Peterson for no gain, Peterson for 1 yard, pass to Jenkins 11 yards down at the 1. 1 yard Peterson touchdown. Without Ponder moving the chains on 3rd and 9 this is only a field goal.

Bears 1 - Cutler picked off, Josh Robinson returns to 1 yard line

Drive 2 - 1 yard Adrian Peterson touch down. 14-0.

Bears get a TD, 14-7.

Cutler intercepted - Harrison Smith returns 56 yards. Touchdown. 21-7

With 3 minutes left in the 4th, TD brandon Marshall 21-14.

Onside kick fails, Kneel, Kneel, Kneel we win.

All in all, no huge #'s for Ponder, surprise surprise but the game is well in hand and we NEVER trail, of course we're gonna milk Peterson, the best player in the NFL. Ponder 17 attempts (65% completion rate) Peterson 31 carries, I guess it's not really surprising Peterson at 5 yards per carry has more yardage. With the 2 pick 6's from Cutler and early beat down from Peterson we simply weren't ever going to throw the ball much, it WASN'T needed.



Game 2 at Rams

First drive - Pass to Rudolph 14 yards, Peterson for 4, to Simpson for 11, -2 Peterson, -2 Peterson, to Burton for 13, Holding on Rams 3 yard Ponder run, Peterson -2, Peterson -1, Ponder scrambles 5 yards Touchdown! 7-0. Total Peterson yards -3, Ponder yards 46.

Rams TD pass to brian quick 7-7

Next Score - 1 play, Adrain Peterson up the middle for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN! 14-7

Bradford fumbles, Vikings recover

Walsh field goal 17-7.

Bradford picked off by Everson Griffin, Returned 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN! 24-7

Blair Walsh field goal 27-7

Rams miss field goal 27-7

Blair Walsh field goal 30-7

Blair Walsh field goal 33-7

Games over by the end of the 3rd quarter, rams get a couple scores in garbage time. Ponder 17-24, 71% completion rate, he can only do what the coaches ask and call the plays for. Like against the Bears we get multiple turn overs and a pick 6, absolutely no reason to be aggressive in our passing game up by 20+ points for most of the game but a 71% completion rate is phenomenal and Ponder moved the chains when he had to, scored a TD early to set the tone. 212 yards by Adrian, AVERAGED 8.8 yards per carry, why exactly would we pass more?



Game 3 Vs Texans

Shane Graham field goal 0-3

First drive - Adrian 20 yard run, Adrian -2, Pass to Kyle Rudolph 27 yards, Ponder scrambles 1 yard, Adrian for 3, Pass to Jenkins 32 yards, Adrian -1, Pass to Rudolph for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN! 7-3 20 Adrian yards, 63 Ponder yards.

Foster Fumbles, recovered by Vikings

Blair Walsh field goal 10-3

Blair Walsh field goal 13-3

Blair Walsh field goal 16-3

Shane Graham field goal 16-6

Pass to Rudolph for 9 yards, AD -1, CP scrambles for 29 yards, AD no gain, Toby 6 yards, Toby 4 yards, AD 2 yards, Toby 2 yards, Pass to Wright 5 yards defensive holding. Toby for 3 yards TOUCHDOWN! 23-6. 43 Ponder yards, 16 from RB's.

Fumble recovered by Everson Griffin!

Gerhart runs for a first down Kneel Kneel kneel

Ponder 16-30 53% completion not so hot but this is against a top 5 defense with JJ.watt nearly breaking the sack record and holding Adrian below 100. 174 and a passing TD, no INTS, 7 scrambles for 48 yards, 222 yards combined for Ponder. Peterson 86 yards. Vikings hold Shaub to 178 yards passing, Arian foster 10 carries for 15 yards. Complete domination by the defense holding the Texans to 6 points, Ponder did what he needed to do especially since Adrian didn't have a good day. (well to his standards) But again we aren't going to take risks with the game so thoroughly in hand.



Game 4 - Vs Green Bay

So many drives in this game and so much scoring, I don't feel like typing them all out but this is Ponder's best game. 16/28, 57% completion, for 234 yards, 3 TD's, 0 INT's 16 yards rushing.

27 to 27 in the 4th quarter, it's crunch time, what does ponder do? 65 yard bomb to Jarius Wright and follows that up with a TD pass to Jenkins. 34-27

Packers Tie it up 34-34

Final season defining drive - Pass incomplete to Peterson, Peterson -1 yard, 3rd and 11 pass complete to Jenkins for 25 yards. FIRST DOWN! Peterson for 7,4,0,26 to run down the clock. Blair Walsh the kick is good, Vikes win 37-34. He had two opportunities to crumble with the SEASON on the line and both times he pulled through with huge plays. IF he's as weak mentally as some of you claim that would have been prime opportunity to prove it wouldn't it?

All in all each game looks to have Ponder doing what he has to, doing what the coaches asked of him. While his yardage totals aren't that impressive, a lot of it actually comes when the game REALLY MATTERS. Once we're up big sure he doesn't pick up a lot more but I'm sorry folks, we have the best player in the NFL and he happens to play RB instead of QB so yes he's going to get the ball. Any game plan the coaches, QB, and team can execute to get Peterson 30+ carries and 200+ yards for him is FINE BY ME. Considering we went 4-0 with Ponder and under that game plan, when it absolutely mattered most, I think it's pretty idiotic to suggest other wise.

Now before anyone poops their pants about me being a Ponder lover all I care about is seeing his 3rd year, with some actual upgrades at WR and as the team as a whole develops. Remember this team went 3-13 only 2 years ago, they may have over achieved to get 10-6 and a wild card but overall, including the final 4 game run, the team is on an UPWARD SPIRAL. Very few teams make big changes under those circumstances. In fact I can only think of it happening 2 times in the past 12 years. (Trent Dilfer and Alex Smith and even smith was in the regular season) I think Musgrave, the defense, the o-line, Adrian, Frazier, and of course Ponder are all getting better, all gaining experience. At this point I'm excited for sure, I'm a Vikings fan after all! But should ponder come out and look bad, should the team fail to make the playoffs / regress, I'm all for going a different direction but for right now it doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

[PurpleHalo]

I just hope they don't rest on the fact that WR has been upgraded. The footwork and body control in the pocket still needs serious work. And if that continues it wouldn't matter if he had Jerry Rice and Cris Carter in their primes.

[The Breeze]

Well, sure if you're going to watch the game all logically and stuff. But how does your most excellent post help me when the truth is that I just can't get over the fact they drafted Ponder in the first place?

I wanted Blaine Locker-Mallet....so, Ponder will never fulfill my empty QB place way down in my tummy...(sniff)

[Mothman]

Good post, Mondry. Thanks for doing that research. A few additional notes from memory: I recall Ponder completing passes to convert significant third downs in the second half (probably the 4th quarter) of both the Bears and Texans games. That won't seem like much to determined naysayers but those conversions can help make the difference between winning a game and losing it. They're definitely plays that get the attention of the coaches, who are worried about winning games, not stats.

Ponder's completion percentage against Houston is relatively low but I remember him being under pressure often in that game and throwing quite a few passes away rather than forcing the issue. It's better to have a 53% completion rate and a win than a 60% rate and 2 INTs.

Anyway, what you're getting at above is what I was talking about in another thread earlier today. Forget yardage totals. It's wins that matter and if Ponder can continue doing what he did those last 4 games (and in wins against Jacksonville, SF, Detroit, etc), if he can play efficiently and make the plays necessary to win, that's all that matters.

[allday1991]

Seems like the defence and Walsh did most of the work. We can all argue all day (lol) about Ponder and his up coming season and if we are just being haters, however no one will know for sure till the end of the season rolls along Ponder might end up being the man with 20 plus tds and 60% plus completion with 7-9 ints. Or Ponder fails and our season goes down the drain! I for one hope for the best but aspect the worse.

[9man]

Seems like the defence and Walsh did most of the work. We can all argue all day (lol) about Ponder and his up coming season and if we are just being haters, however no one will know for sure till the end of the season rolls along Ponder might end up being the man with 20 plus tds and 60% plus completion with 7-9 ints. Or Ponder fails and our season goes down the drain! I for one hope for the best but aspect the worse.

Yep those field goals when the vikes were already ahead made a big difference.

Great post by the OP. This is Ponders third year, he needs to play like he did in these games if he wants to be the starter. I hope he does because unless there is an Andrew Luck clone in next years draft we may never see AP win a super bowl, at least wearing purple.

SKOL!

[allday1991]

Yep those field goals when the vikes were already ahead made a big difference.

Great post by the OP. This is Ponders third year, he needs to play like he did in these games if he wants to be the starter. I hope he does because unless there is an Andrew Luck clone in next years draft we may never see AP win a super bowl, at least wearing purple.

SKOL!

Its very important, how many games are won by 3 points? I will never overlook what Walsh did this season and hope he has many more as a Viking.

[Raptorman]

Its very important, how many games are won by 3 points? I will never overlook what Walsh did this season and hope he has many more as a Viking.

Walsh only kicks. He did nothing to set up the kick. That goes to the offense. And for every 3 points, you have to look at how they got to that position to kick the ball. Was it the defense on fumble or Int or the offense moving the ball? Never, ever, stop trying to score. 21 points in this league is not a sure win anymore.

[Funkytown]

Aaaah. Refreshing to read a well thought-out, intelligent in-depth response/analysis.

And keeping things in perspective and remaining positive on top of it all? Now you're just showing off with all your logic. Quit.

Personal stats make things pretty, but the only stat I care about is the wins/losses section. As long as we are winning, I don't care how we do it! Well, aside from cheating.

[The Breeze]

On the other side of the coin, every FG made means there was a failed 3rd down conversion and possible TD opportunity. I don't have time to go through every game. I just picked week 17 vs GB. On the first drive, it was 3rd and 10 on the GB 44yd line. Ponder starts to scramble left and this is what he sees (see pic). Instead of passing to the open WR right in front of him, he scrambles for an 8 yd gain. Yes, Ponder made a couple of nice throws prior to this play and we don't know if it would've led to a TD if he completed this pass, but I don't think this team can afford to have very many missed opportunities. This year is going to be tough. Two road division games, followed by a tough home game, then off to London to play the Steelers. Road games this year are @NYG, @DAL, @SEA, @BAL, @CIN.

This is one area I hope Ponder has improved on, being more patient and going through his progressions, and keeping his head tight when scrambling.

Yeah, I know it's knitpicking, but for the Vikings to beat the Ravens, Giants, Seahawks, etc..., I think they're going to have to take advantage of opportunities like this.

I don't see your point as nitpicking. That's a really fair criticism and astute observation IMO. I'd really like him to play calmer and cooler with consistency.....especially when talking about 3rd down efficiency. The longer he can keep this unit on the field the better..., they have some sick weapons. Maybe accept his role a little better in terms of what the team really needs from him rather than what he wants to do.

Whether this is something he can learn vs how long it takes him to do it, if he can, is likely why we're all so anxious to see how it unfolds. I know I am.

[Mothman]

On the other side of the coin, every FG made means there was a failed 3rd down conversion and possible TD opportunity. I don't have time to go through every game. I just picked week 17 vs GB. On the first drive, it was 3rd and 10 on the GB 44yd line. Ponder starts to scramble left and this is what he sees (see pic). Instead of passing to the open WR right in front of him, he scrambles for an 8 yd gain. Yes, Ponder made a couple of nice throws prior to this play and we don't know if it would've led to a TD if he completed this pass, but I don't think this team can afford to have very many missed opportunities.

Based on that shot alone, I'm not sure that play was much of a missed opportunity. It's hard to tell without context but in the still shot, it looks like the safety is already breaking on the receiver without a pass even in the air and it also looks like Ponder might have to throw across his body into the middle of the field to complete that pass, something that's often inadvisable. Ponder's moving left, the WR is going right and the safety is coming up... running may have been the right decision, especially in FG range on the first drive of a scoreless game. Throw that pass across the body and behind the receiver and it could easily get picked. Considering the angles (and Ponder being a right-handed QB) this one doesn't look like a no-brainer to me.

The photo may be deceptive so perhaps this was a pass that should have been thrown and could have been completed. I'm just saying, it's hard to tell from this still photo.

Anyway, you raise good points about converting third downs and being patient. Ponder definitely left some opportunities on the field last year and the more he can take advantage of those opportunities, the better off the team will be.

[Just Me]

Based on that shot lone, I'm not sure that play was much of a missed opportunity. It's hard to tell without context but in the still shot, it looks like the safety is already breaking on the receiver without a pass even in the air and it also looks like Ponder might have to throw across his body into the middle of the field to complete that pass, something that's often inadvisable. Ponder's moving left, the WR is going right and the safety is coming up... running may have been the right decision, especially in FG range on the first drive of a scoreless game. Throw that pass across the body and behind the receiver and it could easily get picked. Considering the angles (and Ponder being a right-handed QB) this one doesn't look like a no-brainer to me.

The photo may be deceptive so perhaps this was a pass that should have been thrown and could have been completed. I'm just saying, it's hard to tell from this still photo.

All accurate observations, and I'll add one more: it looks like the offensive linemen and defensive lineman are moving to the left. Since the receiver is moving right, it looks like Ponder (in order to properly lead his receiver) would need to throw where the linemen are going to soon be. IOW the throwing lane needed may not have been open. Again - hard to tell from the still shot, and maybe it was a missed opportunity...

[smoothoperator]

I wanted Blaine Locker-Mallet...

are you kidding? all of these guys are complete trash.

[mansquatch]

As usual for Mondry: Great Post.

A key stat in those 4 games is the lack of turnovers. Everyone worries about his yardage, but I'll take a field goal on a missed 3rd down conversion vs. an INT and zero points. If Ponder gives the ball away in any of those 4 games we let our opponet back in or at least keep them that much closer on the score board. That changes the dynamic of a game.

A case in point was the game in GB when we were in the red zone and he put up that duck to Morgan Burnett. We had them on the ropes until that play. Momentum swung, they got their points, and we lost.

I want to see yardage improvments, but I also want to see him get under 10 picks. If Ponder throws less than 10 picks I suspect there is very high probability we'll be back in the post season and probably with at least one home game.

[Mothman]

As usual for Mondry: Great Post.

A key stat in those 4 games is the lack of turnovers. Everyone worries about his yardage, but I'll take a field goal on a missed 3rd down conversion vs. an INT and zero points. If Ponder gives the ball away in any of those 4 games we let our opponet back in or at least keep them that much closer on the score board. That changes the dynamic of a game.

It sure does. Last season, the Vikes were 7-1 in games where Ponder didn't throw an INT and 3-5 in games where he did.

I want to see yardage improvments, but I also want to see him get under 10 picks. If Ponder throws less than 10 picks I suspect there is very high probability we'll be back in the post season and probably with at least one home game.

Agreed and that would be an impressive accomplishment over a 16 game season. That kind of efficiency usually leads to good things. Last season, only four 16 game starters threw 10 picks or less: Flacco, Brady, Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Brady and Rodgers were the only two with fewer than 10. That's good company to join!