WRs to watch

[Mothman]

The issue I have with WR's, especially in the first round, is that there aren't really safe picks at that position. Draft history is littered with guys who show major ability in college and just don't cut it in the pros. I was reading up on last year's draft, and kept coming across the names of players I had never heard of in the NFL - and who were pretty high choice WR's.

You've raised this point in the past, John, and WR is a somewhat risky position to draft in the first round so I understand your reservations. However, draft history is littered with players at every position who showed major ability in college and didn't cut it in the pros. There's no such thing as a truly safe pick at any position. We don't really find out if players were "safe" choices until they've played in the league for a while. I understand teams can strategize and try to reduce the odds of drafting a bust but the risk is always going to be there. They have to trust their evaluations and hope for the best.

And the odd thing is... Jarius Wright ended up being one of the more productive WR's in the league, both in a season long sense (roughly #10) and in a per-game sense (#5), even though he was the 16th (by my count) WR chosen.

I'm confused. Are you saying Wright was the 10th most productive rookie WR last season because he certainly wasn't close to being the 10th most productive WR in the league.

So I guess I'm letting myself off the "draft a WR in the first round" bandwagon. Maybe a guy (or two if we trade down) in the second round. I think there's better value and more need in letting the Austin/Allen/Patterson triangle pass us by and selecting a couple guys that are more likely to be solid five-year starters.

There's a good chance Austin and Patterson will be off the board already anyway, although you never know. I certainly don't think it's essential for them to draft a WR in the first round. There may very well be better potential value at other positions. As I said, I think they just need to trust their evaluations because not only are there no safe picks in the draft, there are definitely no safe picks by the time the 23rd and 25th picks roll around.

[Mothman]

Exactly that, great post. Time and time again evaluators and coaches see guys like Patterson and Austin and think "i'll take this talent and athleticism and mold him, sculpt him into a great receiver" and they convince themselves they can do it and it'll work so they fly up the draft boards. "If i can just get my hands on him he'll be a probowler for sure!"

Turns out what is more important is your route running, your hands, body control, and technique.

That's true but I wouldn't group Austin with Patterson in that scenario. He's more experienced (at the major college level) and polished than Patterson. The main knock on Austin is just his size.

[big deli Vike]

If they pass on guys like Patterson and Allen in the first and get some good players in round 1 and get dobson or Woods maybe in 2. That would be totally fine (pending who they get in 1). I really like Dobson; size, HANDS, and speed. I think he could be really good. Best catch in college last year.

[dead_poet]

An interesting blog post from vikings.com. What's unique about this one from the other 900 I've read is the addition of a previously little-promoted name in the "Immediate Impacters" category.

Draft Preview: Rounding Up The Receivers

Immediate Impacters
Stedman Bailey (West Virginia) – Overshadowed in this draft by his college teammate (Tavon Austin), Bailey was every bit as much a playmaker for West Virginia. In 2012, there were only two games in which he didn’t score a TD, and he recorded a 5-TD and 4-TD game during the season. Bailey had 114 receptions and 25 TDs last year – those are not typos.

http://blog.vikings.com/2013/04/09/draf ... receivers/

---
More on Bailey (who goes 5'10, 193):

According to STATS ICE, West Virginia's Stedman Bailey made more "clutch receptions" in 2012 than any top draft-eligible receiver on a minimum of 100 targets.

"Clutch receptions" are defined as catches that went for a first down or touchdown. Scheme, quarterback play, and competition can affect stats like this, but it's still interesting that Bailey dominated the field with 72 "clutch" catches amongst 148 targets (48.6 percent). Next closest was Oregon State's Markus Wheaton, with 64 "clutch" catches on 141 passes his way (45.4 percent).

---

West Virginia WR Stedman Bailey ran forty times of 4.50 and 4.57 at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Bailey's measurables aren't nearly as impressive as his college game tape, which makes him an obvious candidate to be available later than his football-playing ability might deserve. He could be a steal in the draft's third round. Feb 24 - 9:37 AM

---

NFL Draft insider Tony Pauline reports that West Virginia WR Stedman Bailey is drawing some Steve Smith comparisons in pre-Combine training and could end up being drafted in the second round.

Bailey is listed at just 5-foot-10, 195 pounds, but plays big for his size and has tremendous run-after-catch ability. Per Pauline, Bailey could be "the surprise receiver" at the Combine and is "running very fast" in workouts. Feb 15 - 3:49 PM

[dead_poet]

Keenan Allen - WR - Golden Bears

NFL Network's Mike Mayock timed Cal WR Keenan Allen's forties at 4.71 and 4.75 during the prospect's pro day workout.

Expect a wide variance of times from the pro day. Allen has dealt with a PCL injury during the pre-draft process, but doctors have said his knee is 100 percent, with the muscles surrounding it only around 75 percent. Allen's game isn't base don long speed, rather burst in and out of his breaks and toughness at the catch point.
Source: James Dator on Twitter

[Mothman]

Keenan Allen - WR - Golden Bears

NFL Network's Mike Mayock timed Cal WR Keenan Allen's forties at 4.71 and 4.75 during the prospect's pro day workout.

Expect a wide variance of times from the pro day. Allen has dealt with a PCL injury during the pre-draft process, but doctors have said his knee is 100 percent, with the muscles surrounding it only around 75 percent. Allen's game isn't base don long speed, rather burst in and out of his breaks and toughness at the catch point.
Source: James Dator on Twitter

Thanks for the info. If the muscles aren't back to 100% yet, those times probably aren't an accurate indication of what he can do. They may drop him down some boards though.

Watching him on tape, he certainly looks faster than that to me. If I remember correctly, Anquan Boldin ran in the 4.7s prior to the draft too and since he's the pro Allen seems to be compared to most often, perhaps Allen can take comfort in that.

I wonder what some of the other times reported will be...

[dead_poet]

Thanks for the info. If the muscles aren't back to 100% yet, those times probably aren't an accurate indication of what he can do. They may drop him down some boards though.

Watching him on tape, he certainly looks faster than that to me. If I remember correctly, Anquan Boldin ran in the 4.7s prior to the draft too and since he's the pro Allen seems to be compared to most often, perhaps Allen can take comfort in that.

I wonder what some of the other times reported will be...

Just an FYI, it appears Allen suffered a setback prior to the Combine, which is why it's taken so long for his recovery. Perhaps more concerning than his speed (or perceived lack thereof) is medicals. Would be interesting to see if he slips to the second round.

[MrPurplenGold]

Just an FYI, it appears Allen suffered a setback prior to the Combine, which is why it's taken so long for his recovery. Perhaps more concerning than his speed (or perceived lack thereof) is medicals. Would be interesting to see if he slips to the second round.

I think the person that this benefits the most is deandre hopkins. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Vikings call his name over Allen's on Draft day

[Mothman]

Just an FYI, it appears Allen suffered a setback prior to the Combine, which is why it's taken so long for his recovery. Perhaps more concerning than his speed (or perceived lack thereof) is medicals. Would be interesting to see if he slips to the second round.

It will definitely be interesting. I don't think his injury is a big concern. If Dr. James Andrews (the man is everywhere!) says the knee is 100% then at this point, it's probably just a question of continuing to work on getting the surrounding muscle back to 100% too. That takes time.

I read some of the other on-the-site tweets from James Dator (the source of the info you posted earlier) and they were interesting. He said Allen got a poor start on both 40 attempts. That obviously impacts times and as Craig often points out, the 40 yard dash is a track event so technique matters. Dator and others have reported that Allen was impressive running routes and catching the ball.

My guess is that teams interested in Allen will check him out and if they feel confident about him physically, his 40 times won't impact their choice at all. It's pretty clear on tape that he's faster than a 4.71 makes him sound and his speed was never his main selling point anyway.

Here's more from Mayock:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100000 ... oesnt-care

"Three months ago, I said -- if you watch this kid on tape -- if you like him, he's Anquan Boldin. If you don't like him, he's speed-deficient. So I don't really care what he runs in the 40. On tape, to me, he's a 4.55 guy all day long."

Mayock called Allen's 40 results "not a good time," but scouts and coaches told him they expect Allen to be faster down the road. What he gives you, according to Mayock, is "a big, powerful, wide receiver" who might go anywhere from No. 25 to No. 45 in the 2013 NFL Draft.

"I believe in his toughness and his hands," Mayock said, confirming that he would, indeed, "bang the table" for Allen (and in Mayock's universe, that's a compliment of the highest order).

[dead_poet]

Recent risk-reward of drafting receivers in the first round

There's something about receivers and the first round of the draft that scares fans, coaches, general managers and owners more than a 250-yard carry over water to a small green. Whether receiver truly is the riskiest position to gamble on in the first round hasn't been mathematically confirmed, but those who have been through Troy Williamson being taken seventh overall in 2005, Matt Jones being taken 14 spots later, or Charles Rogers being taken second in 2003 will swear the chances of slicing one into the water well short of the green are higher when swinging for a receiver.

"The receivers tend to be high profile anyway," said former longtime NFL executive Bill Polian. "So when they fail, it's a big issue."

The same could be said for any other position in the first round. All of those players, even the quarterbacks now, are expected to start immediately.

But, yes, it is possible to clear that water and reach the green with the right swing. Even one at No. 23 (Dwayne Bowe) or lower (Roddy White, No. 27).
Here's a look at the receivers taken in the first round of the past 10 NFL drafts. There have been 38 receivers taken. Eleven of them have played in at least one Pro Bowl. Eight of them -- Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, White, Calvin Johnson, Bowe, Percy Harvin, A.J. Green and Julio Jones -- are among the best receivers in the league today. Five of them became busts, although more could follow:

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 58461.html

[Mothman]

Here's even more detail about Allen's workout today (cross-posted from the First Round thread in Vikings Talk):

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/4/9/42 ... me-workout

Times on the 40-yard dash varied. My hand-timing was far faster than the crowd, but I was jockeying for a position and didn't get a great look at his start. The consensus seems to be he ran between the mid-4.6s and early 4.7s, but the trainers were quick to mention before the workout that while Keenan Allen's knee is at 100%, the surrounding muscle groups are at about 75% right now -- which could have greatly impacted his time. One scout offered an interesting perspective: "He looks like he's got some hitch in his giddy-up", which I really hope appears in an official scouting report.

Up to this point the workout was clinical, and expected. It was the route running where you really got a sense of team's motivations and interests. The Colts wanted to see his change of direction, while the Bengals were most intrigued at seeing an 'Omaha return' route -- a six-yard pattern that saw Allen run to the sideline, loop back inside, and catch on the run. It was met with a simple phrase from Cincinnati: "He did an awesome job".

[PacificNorseWest]

Excuse after excuse for this guy and it's not even like his game tape lights up the film room. If Minnesota takes him then they most likely do so in the first round. No, thanks. I'll take my chances on a WR in the second round. See: Robert Woods.

[VikingLord]

Allen does seem to have great hands and flawless technique catching and plucking the ball. He doesn't seem to be wide open often, though, and I'd expect that to continue in the pros given the relative speed increase of the defensive backs who will be covering him. To continue to be successful as a pro I think Allen is going to have to develop in the mold of a Boldin or a Cris Carter and learn to consistently make those position-based catches using his body, the sideline, the refs, etc., plus learn to recognize coverages and find ways to break to daylight.

Not worth a 1st rounder IMHO even if healthy, though. I'd consider him in the 3rd.

[Mothman]

Excuse after excuse for this guy and it's not even like his game tape lights up the film room.

Not being back to 100% after knee surgery isn't an excuse, it's a reason.

His game tape certainly seems to be lighting up film rooms for somebody because there's an awful lot of interest in him.

Allen does seem to have great hands and flawless technique catching and plucking the ball. He doesn't seem to be wide open often, though, and I'd expect that to continue in the pros given the relative speed increase of the defensive backs who will be covering him. To continue to be successful as a pro I think Allen is going to have to develop in the mold of a Boldin or a Cris Carter and learn to consistently make those position-based catches using his body, the sideline, the refs, etc., plus learn to recognize coverages and find ways to break to daylight.

Not worth a 1st rounder IMHO even if healthy, though. I'd consider him in the 3rd.

You'd be considering him when he was already on another roster? He's not likely to last until the 3rd.

Look at it this way, would Cris Carter or Anquan Boldin have been worth a first round pick? neither was and I'm not saying Allen will ever achieve what those two did but if a team believed he could, why wouldn't they spend a first on him? Carter's going to the Hall of Fame and Boldin's been terrific.

It seems like there's a tendency to equate speed and "wow" play ability with greatness at WR and to value those qualities above others that can be equally valuable. However, I think you'll agree that a WR who can "consistently make those position-based catches using his body, the sideline, the refs, etc., plus learn to recognize coverages and find ways to break to daylight" is a huge asset to a team.

[dead_poet]

Carter's going to the Hall of Fame

I just want this to be recognized. Because we get to say it now and it is true and it is awesome.

Carry on.