Percy's future w/ Vikings looking uncertain

[Mothman]

I heard an interview on KFAN today with Dan Wierder and he was saying that the major issue in his opinion is whether Harvin wants to be a part of MN. If PH wants a Fitz or Megatron Deal then they need to deal him. He isn’t worth that kind of money. Perhaps this situation is more about what kind of market the Vikings can create for PH in light of his irrational demands? I think it is extremely unlikely they’ll give him a Megatron contract as well as being equally unlikely that they’ll pay him a normal elite WR contract in addition to another big FA signing. They are not going to have two $55MM WR on the books.

Therefore, I think the scenarios are shaping up as follows:

A: Harvin signs for $60MM-ish and then look to the draft to add WR
B: We deal Harvin for some picks, and sign Mike Wallace or someone similar in FA, plus draft a WR
C: The Vikings think they can negotiate with PH and fail, losing out on FA WR and potentially eroding PH’s trade value. (Who is going to trade for a guy who they know is going to demand a ridiculous contract?)

This really comes down to Harvin’s realistic opinion of his value and the Vikings gauge of what they can accomplish with him. C would be a disaster IMO. It basically wastes their 2009 1st round pick. At this point if Harvin is going to be ridiculous then B is the best outcome. If Harvin can be sane in his demands then A is better.

The problem is that if Harvin's contract demands are way too high, or even if other teams simply believe they're way too high, his trade value will probably plummet because any team that deals for him still has to sign him. In other words, scenarios A and B remain possibilities but the picks in the latter might be disappointingly low.

[Mothman]

So here is the problem I have with the "I'll believe it when Percy says it" thing: Why hasn’t a contract extension been signed yet? The Harvin deal is a big cloud over our offseason right now and generating plenty of media buzz. Maybe the FO do not care, but I doubt that is the case. So why isn’t there a contract in place to extend him?
I see two reasons:

1.) He is demanding more than they are willing to offer
2.) He doesn’t want to play here anymore.

Here's a third possibility: the Vikings want to see if they can acquire Wallace in free agency and if so, they'll deal Harvin. If not, they'll keep him under contract and try to renegotiate.

Perhaps they want to see what the market price is for Wallace and then tell Harvin: "You're not Megatron. Here's what Bowe got. Here's what Jackson received last year. Here's what Wallace was paid... and here's a fair offer."

With the draft well over a month away, I think Spielman still has time on his side.

[mansquatch]

I agree with both of you.

I think the assumption in the first post is that Harvin is rational. This may not be the case, which renders your quite valid point irrelevant. If Harvin decides the Purple isn’t the place for him, right or wrong, we need to trade him.

That bridges to your point Moth, I agree that the perception of his demands could very likely put the Vikings in a bad situation. I hate to say it, but this whole situation reminds me of Stefan Marbury in the 90s. PH would be wise to look at Marb’s career and realize that just because he went to what he perceived to be a winner didn’t end up winning him much of anything. Of course it doesn’t sound like PH is thinking long term.

That being said, getting a 2nd rounder or even a 3rd is better than losing him to FA and getting nothing. Yes he is “worth” more than that, but if he truly wants to leave or is unreasonable then something is better than nothing in a situation that is just plain bad for the Vikes. Fans should hate PH and not the FO if that is the case, at least IMO.

[smoothoperator]

Harvin is insane if he wants Johnson/Fitz money. He's a great player but not as good as them, plus there are so many question marks he brings that they don't.

One thing that should be abundantly clear now is that if we trade Harvin, it will be for monetary reasons, not because of the coaches, his attitude or Ponder

If we can get a 2nd round pick for him, I'd do it.

Hypothetically say we sign Wallace and Simpson and trade Harvin.

Wallace
Draft Pick (Patterson/Allen/Hunter/Austin/Woods/Hopkins/Wheaton/Patton/Williams)
Simpson
Wright
Burton/Summers/Childs/Whoever.

That is an improvement over last year even without Harvin.

^ this. could even get someone like denario alexander. wallace is a better WR anyway, sure harvin can add to the return and running game, but if he is not going to be a team player and destroy our cap space due to his demands, we gotta let him go. we did fine without him last year, so i really am not to worried.

[mondry]

In the interview it was stated by Wierder (who could be wrong, just saying what I heard) said that according to folks close to Percy, it is very, very important to Harvin to be able to show who he is and what he is capable of during his short time in the NFL. Whether true or not is unknown, but that attitude certainly fits in with the other information we have as well as his infamous sideline tirade.

So it could quite possibly be not about money but about Harvin’s perception that he is not in the best situation for himself on this team. IMO, this is actually a better place ot be than just stuck on $$$. Harvin can demand a trade, but that could put him in a worse situation. Also, if he is too much of a primadonna, a team that he wants to play for may opt to pass up on his locker room antics. That is a better bargaining position for the Vikes than “Pay me X or I’m gone.”

Irrespective of the above, I’ve noticed a trend with Harvin’s behavior in that he is very conscious of his “window or opportunity” in the league. That is why I find Wierder’s comments to be relevant, they echo my own observations. We’ll learn more once the big time WR FA get signed, specifically if the Vikings sing one of them.

I have to agree with this, in fact I think 99.9% of Harvin's issue is that he just wants to be treated and utilized like a top flight WR, and not just a specialist who's primary focus is on bubble screens, reverses, running out of the back field, and kick returns. While he certainly can do those things well, I think he personally wants to expand on his role as a WR with that other stuff popping up less and as more of a surprise factor. Then you have Jarius Wright come in week 12 or whatever and make a few deep plays down the middle of the field that they never had Harvin even attempt. It seems to me they have simply pigeon holed Harvin into that role, so even a NEW WR in a similar mold (Wright) is allowed to be more of a WR.

I also have to agree with Harvins mentality, I think they have drastically under utilized his receiving ability and especially as a deep threat. We all talk about needing a mike wallace or to draft one but there's no reason Harvin couldn't do that for us.

Evidence

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-high ... e-TD-catch
http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/vide ... ee89cad0de Check it out at around 23 seconds, the DB has good coverage 5 yards ahead of Harvin and Harvin just cruises right by him to make the catch.
http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/vide ... 51641d0c07 no one even touches Harvin as he literally just runs by and then away.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss ... tch-for-TD Blown coverage but you can see how quick Harvin can get down the field on this seam route.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeIdzjwiqz4 crowd camera but focus on Harvin and the TD, look at his speed and cut to the corner of the endzone, not to mention the catch, super sick!
http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/vide ... 1307e5b3d1 Look at the footwork at 35 seconds to get a clean release off of woodson and then leaving him in the dust. That is his "fastest first step" in the NFL at work.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-high ... yard-catch Harvin beats his guy instantly, an easy pick up.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-high ... yard-catch Webb under pressure just throws it up, but if this is a better throw it's an easy TD, still a nice grab.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-high ... 6-yd-catch Same kinda story, a little under thrown so Harvin can't run all out, still a great catch.
http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/vide ... 773c02e250 Beats the DB easily, if he stays in bounds that's probably a TD.

To me this is enough proof Harvin can do it. The interesting thing is, this may seem like evidence that they DO use him as a WR, but over 3 years, 10 video's isn't all that much. Another thing is, a lot of these are with Favre, and the rest are in games where our season didn't matter all that much. Only a couple are recent and in games when we were relevant. So why are they willing to let Harvin be a "real" wr when it doesn't matter all that much, but when it does, strictly limit him to the short stuff, bubble screens, runs out of the backfield, etc?

We also know Favre was notorious for changing the plays / doing his own thing and this is when you see most of Harvins success down field. Maybe it's also because of Favre's ability but we've also seen Harvin make these plays with Ponder and even Webb when the game hasn't mattered so I don't buy that it's just a QB thing.

I think this extreme focus on Harvin's short game and gimmick plays is what's really at the core of his issues.

[mansquatch]

The issue I see with Harvin's demand is that yes he is the best slot guy and the best return guy in the NFL, at least he was last year. He has unique talent. However, the issue is his size and durability. If he is taking back kicks plus 8-12 touches a game in the passing game that is him taking a hit 12-16 times a game, plus blocking on running plays. That isn't quite AP punishment, but it is right up there. He has mostly been tought through this, but the first season they really emphasized him he sat for 8 games.

Was that a fluke or not? I don't know, but it certainly would give me pause if I were a GM and had to balance talent with cap needs and I'm already carring AP's contract.

[smoothoperator]

look at wallaces highlight films, he constantly burns DBs

[Mothman]

I have to agree with this, in fact I think 99.9% of Harvin's issue is that he just wants to be treated and utilized like a top flight WR, and not just a specialist who's primary focus is on bubble screens, reverses, running out of the back field, and kick returns.

I doubt such a high percentage of his issues are with how he's utilized and treated. It seems more likely to me that he perceives himself as a top WR and wants to be paid like a top flight WR. No offense, but I think we'd be naive to think the latter is of so little importance to him.

[mondry]

I doubt such a high percentage of his issues are with how he's utilized and treated. It seems more likely to me that he perceives himself as a top WR and wants to be paid like a top flight WR. No offense, but I think we'd be naive to think the latter is of so little importance to him.

Ah but let's connect the dots, if he was utilized and treated like a top WR, and he performed that way, he SHOULD perceive himself as a top WR and consequently be paid like one! The reason he's mad is because he feels MN hasn't been the best place for him to flourish and receive that opportunity. In that sense, money is a bigger part of the issue than 0.1% but I don't think it's because Harvin is just greedy and want's the money. I think it's because he thinks if he was given the opportunity he could EARN such a contract.

For example, if he was a free agent this year, and we offered him 55 million and let's say new england offered him 55 million, who would he sign with? My bet would be New England because he believes they would show off his receiving skills better. If it was just about the money he would simply resign here in that scenario. Of course we won't know if that's the case but if it ISN'T then we simply have nothing to worry about since we can just match any offer he receives and keep him.

[Mothman]

Ah but let's connect the dots, if he was utilized and treated like a top WR, and he performed that way, he SHOULD perceive himself as a top WR and consequently be paid like one! The reason he's mad is because he feels MN hasn't been the best place for him to flourish and receive that opportunity. In that sense, money is a bigger part of the issue than 0.1% but I don't think it's because Harvin is just greedy and want's the money. I think it's because he thinks if he was given the opportunity he could EARN such a contract.

No offense but I think you're out on a limb when you write something as definitive as "The reason he's mad is because he feels MN hasn't been the best place for him to flourish and receive that opportunity". We simply don't have the information to make such a firm determination. Heck, we don't even know if Harvin IS mad. He's said nothing since, what, November?

The Vikings put Harvin right at the forefront of their offense when Peterson was still recovering from his injury early last season. Since Ponder became the starting QB, Harvin has been far and away the most targeted WR on the team. He's second in touches to Peterson on offense. They target him with short, intermediate and deep passes. It seems to me that in every conceivable way except a new contract, he has been utilized and treated as what he is: the top wide receiver on the team. Have they used him like Calvin Johnson? No, because he doesn't have Johnson's skill set and he shouldn't be used like Johnson. They could target him downfield more but despite the highlights you showed, that's not the strength of his game. He can do it but frankly, they'd be wasting what makes him special if they used him as a conventional downfield threat instead of the multi-purpose threat he is.

Harvin has been given a great opportunity within the Vikings offense. If it's not enough for him, I don't know what would be because he's been used extensively and in just about every conceivable role. I think he has absolutely been given the chance to prove his value.

For example, if he was a free agent this year, and we offered him 55 million and let's say new england offered him 55 million, who would he sign with? My bet would be New England because he believes they would show off his receiving skills better.

... or because they're the most successful franchise of the past decade and they have a Hall of Fame QB. It's not exactly an apples to apples comparison. All things being equal, I'm guessing most players would sign with NE over the Vikings because their chances of winning a Super Bowl would look a lot better in NE.

If it was just about the money he would simply resign here in that scenario. Of course we won't know if that's the case but if it ISN'T then we simply have nothing to worry about since we can just match any offer he receives and keep him.

I'm not saying it's just about the money, simply that money is likely to be a major factor, not a minor one. I suspect ego plays a big role as well but the two are somewhat related...

[mondry]

No offense but I think you're out on a limb when you write something as definitive as "The reason he's mad is because he feels MN hasn't been the best place for him to flourish and receive that opportunity". We simply don't have the information to make such a firm determination. Heck, we don't even know if Harvin IS mad. He's said nothing since, what, November?

Sorry, I assumed he was mad because let's face it, that's the whole point of this 19 page thread, if he's not mad, then what are we discussing?

The Vikings put Harvin right at the forefront of their offense when Peterson was still recovering from his injury early last season. Since Ponder became the starting QB, Harvin has been far and away the most targeted WR on the team. He's second in touches to Peterson on offense. They target him with short, intermediate and deep passes. It seems to me that in every conceivable way except a new contract, he has been utilized and treated as what he is: the top wide receiver on the team. Have they used him like Calvin Johnson? No, because he doesn't have Johnson's skill set and he shouldn't be used like Johnson. They could target him downfield more but despite the highlights you showed, that's not the strength of his game. He can do it but frankly, they'd be wasting what makes him special if they used him as a conventional downfield threat instead of the multi-purpose threat he is.

And if he is mad, it's this line of thinking that could have caused it. "You can do it, but it's a waste to send you down the field when you're so good at bubble screens so let's just do another one of those." I'm just saying I could see how that mentality would frustrate him, especially if he thought he was equally good at being a typical WR.

Harvin has been given a great opportunity within the Vikings offense. If it's not enough for him, I don't know what would be because he's been used extensively and in just about every conceivable role. I think he has absolutely been given the chance to prove his value.

If there is a problem, I think that's part of it. I don't think he wants to be used in every conceivable way, he might say he does, but I think he'd be happy dropping the tail back carries for more intermediate passing routes, where you aren't hit by defensive lineman or linebackers. Less bubble screens or reverses / end arounds for a few more where you're against CB's should help him stay healthy as well

Harvin's not going to complain or say he doesn't want to do it, he's a warrior and will never back down but this might be his way of showing his dissatisfaction. (If there's a problem!)

[BGM]

Why do I have the feeling the Vikings will end up with Mike Wallace AND Percy Harvin? Maybe I am naive or have my head in the sand, but all this talk of disgruntlement by Harvin has snowballed from a couple reporters' offseason musings to almost unassailable "factoid". The thing is, the only players in this drama who matter are not even on stage... am I crazy to believe that this may be an evil genius plan by Spielman to improve the WR corps?

[losperros]

Perhaps they want to see what the market price is for Wallace and then tell Harvin: "You're not Megatron. Here's what Bowe got. Here's what Jackson received last year. Here's what Wallace was paid... and here's a fair offer."

With the draft well over a month away, I think Spielman still has time on his side.

Interesting theory. As much as I like Harvin, I still think the Vikings would be very much within their rights to do exactly as you suggest above.

[Mothman]

Sorry, I assumed he was mad because let's face it, that's the whole point of this 19 page thread, if he's not mad, then what are we discussing?

Harvin was clearly mad at some point because we saw it in on camera but my point was that we don't know if there's some lingering anger toward the coach, team, etc. or if this situation is simply about a player going into the last year of his contract and wanting a new, lucrative deal. The latter is a pretty common situation in the NFL doesn't necessitate a player being mad, just dissatisfied with the compensation he's receiving. If we want to call that the same thing, that's fine. I wasn't trying to split hairs, just to point out that assuming "The reason he's mad is because he feels MN hasn't been the best place for him to flourish and receive that opportunity" is a pretty big assumption.

And if he is mad, it's this line of thinking that could have caused it. "You can do it, but it's a waste to send you down the field when you're so good at bubble screens so let's just do another one of those."

That's not the line of thinking I expressed above. I said going downfield isn't the strength of his game, not that it's a waste of time or that they shouldn't send him on those routes. They should and they do.

I'm just saying I could see how that mentality would frustrate him, especially if he thought he was equally good at being a typical WR.

I can see it too but honestly, it sounds more like it frustrates you.

If there is a problem, I think that's part of it. I don't think he wants to be used in every conceivable way, he might say he does, but I think he'd be happy dropping the tail back carries for more intermediate passing routes, where you aren't hit by defensive lineman or linebackers. Less bubble screens or reverses / end arounds for a few more where you're against CB's should help him stay healthy as well

Again, this sounds more like what you think than what Harvin thinks, which is fine, of course. They're just not the same thing. Has Harvin ever said anything to suggest he feels as you described above? You might be right but without something clearly pointing in that direction, it's just another theory.

[Mothman]

Why do I have the feeling the Vikings will end up with Mike Wallace AND Percy Harvin? Maybe I am naive or have my head in the sand, but all this talk of disgruntlement by Harvin has snowballed from a couple reporters' offseason musings to almost unassailable "factoid". The thing is, the only players in this drama who matter are not even on stage... am I crazy to believe that this may be an evil genius plan by Spielman to improve the WR corps?

You're not crazy but it would represent a huge investment in the WR position. That doesn't make it impossible. Spielman might be looking to sign Wallace and then re-sign Harvin, knowing the price for the former would help set the price for the latter. That would probably mean the Vikings would end up with 2 of the 5 or 6 highest paid WRs in the league on their payroll, which seems unlikely...