Check Down Charlie

[mondry]

Interesting views in both paragraphs. I have no idea what Ponder's learning curve will ultimately be, so I don't know where his ceiling is and I don't want to make a guess. Not yet, anyway. OTOH, the Sanchez/Harrington example is duly noted and valid.

I'd be upset if the Vikings didn't give Ponder at least the rest of this season to show marked improvement. I mean, this is a R1 draft pick investment that was brought into the team to learn and then be the franchise QB. I like your suggestion for upgrading the WR corps (which I believe needs more than just a big #1 WR) and the OL. Even if Ponder isn't the guy, the next candidate will be insulated with better talent around him. It would help Adrian Peterson's game as well.

Yeah exactly, it's something the team needs to do REGARDLESS of if it's Ponder or someone else and with that said, it makes it really hard for me to say with 100% certainty that Ponder isn't the guy. If I'm hearing things like "we have the worst WR corp in the league" and "the o-line is wildly inconsistent" "musgrave's playcalling sucks" "frazier is the worst coach" I want to see those things improve before we abandon a first round draft pick for not performing in such a dysfunctional offense. Obviously not every feels that way and that's fine

[hibbingviking]

Vikings should have drafted kaepernick. I have seen enough of ponder. Little or no upside.

[mansquatch]

This was being discussed in one of the other threads. Follow up: Have any of you looked at Drew Brees' first 2 seasons. San Diego thought like many of you are thinking now and let him go to Free Agency in favor of a young Philip Rivers.

Before you scoff, Brees first 2 seasons were remarkably similar to Ponder's. I'm not saying Ponder is going to be the next Brees, I'm just pointing that just as much as I do not know, neither does anyone else here. Yet many folks are saying they are done with Ponder. Again, my question is why are you so sure?

Given the holes on the team it seems to make sense to me to invest in talent at other positions simply because all we know about Ponder is that he is better than last year, had his sophmore slump like most Rookie QBs (Cam Newton anyone?), but is steadily getting better. If he stalls next year I'd expect them to pull the plug, I think year 2 is early. The organizaton has said 3 years to figure it out, so I'm not alone here.

[Crax]

Before you scoff, Brees first 2 seasons were remarkably similar to Ponder's.

When you say similar, is that because you recall them even though they were a decade ago or are these numbers with no context? As S197 already pointed out, he's been on a downward spiral for the recent games, not improving.

I'm not saying Ponder is going to be the next Brees, I'm just pointing that just as much as I do not know, neither does anyone else here. Yet many folks are saying they are done with Ponder. Again, my question is why are you so sure?

I didn't watch Brees back in 2002 so I can't really say how he looked as far as potential goes and if he improved as the season went on. 10 years ago defenses played a lot more aggressively than now as well and passing numbers across the board were lower. As I said earlier, it's not just about stats. Alex Smith has the highest completion % in the league and 5th in nfl rating and is now getting sat for a 2nd year QB. It's because they don't see the big play ability in him. I just don't see the big play ability in Ponder either.

I didn't believe in Tarvaris Jackson after his first 14 starts(first two seasons) and there were people then that wanted to give him more time. How long do you stick with a guy before you can recognize he doesn't have what it takes?

[Cliff]

When you say similar, is that because you recall them even though they were a decade ago or are these numbers with no context? As S197 already pointed out, he's been on a downward spiral for the recent games, not improving.

I don't really recall the games myself. The stats tend to agree with the comparison and some descriptions too.

Brees' college success led to projections that he would be a mid-to-late first round draft pick in the 2001 NFL Draft, but he slipped due to concerns about his relatively short stature for a professional quarterback (6'0"), a perceived lack of arm strength, and a sense that he had succeeded in college in a spread offense. Ultimately, Brees was the second quarterback selected in the 2001 draft, chosen by the San Diego Chargers as the first pick of the second round.

Stats over that many games are *not* meaningless. Not that you can tell the whole story ... but it's pretty obvious from his stats that Brees wasn't very good in his first two seasons.

Heck, even the Chargers team was built along the same lines in that LaDainian Tomlinson was the center of the offense.

[Mothman]

didn't believe in Tarvaris Jackson after his first 14 starts(first two seasons) and there were people then that wanted to give him more time. How long do you stick with a guy before you can recognize he doesn't have what it takes?

Until you're convinced... and that's obviously going to vary from person to person. What I usually hear from NFL analysts and experts is that 3 years is the time to takes to develop and evaluate a QB in Ponder's situation (1st round draft pick, rebuilding team, etc.). If I remember correctly, Ron Jaworski even refers to a "three year rule" when discussing QB development.

I think Ponder has been showing some pretty strong indications that he may not be the long term solution the Vikes need at QB but he's also making some fairly typical mistakes for a QB at his level of development and I think he's hindered to some extent by the level of talent around him. It's tough to be a young QB on a rebuilding team because the QB's problems tend to get magnified by the problems of those around him (like the drops last Sunday... grrrr!).

Based on what I've seen, I wouldn't give up on Ponder yet. His ceiling appears to be lowering and that's not good but I'd give him the rest of this season and then, if he's still playing like he has in 4 of the last 5 games, I'd spend time in the offseason looking for both a veteran alternative and a rookie with legitimate starting potential. In other words, I'd start working on plans B and C and tell Ponder the job is still his IF he earns it but he's going to have to out-play the other QBs on the roster and prove he's the right man for the job. It will no longer be his simply because of the investment they made in him.

[Crax]

Stats over that many games are *not* meaningless. Not that you can tell the whole story ... but it's pretty obvious from his stats that Brees wasn't very good in his first two seasons.

Never said they were meaningless, but cherry picking drew brees works the same way with failed QB's. But hey, let's talk stats then.

Ponder is currently 32nd by PFF overall QB ranking. I"m sure you'll now say those don't count(which makes no sense since they are all stat based and hey, those aren't meaningless) but I believe them to be more accurate than just NFL rating as it evaluates more things. But, even going by NFL rating, Ponder is 25th.

I already said I don't recall 2001/2002 seasons for Drew Brees. Was he improving at the end of the 02 season? Was he making some big plays at times but correctable mistakes still got him on occasion? Was he completing more than 3 yard passes? I don't really know as I wasn't watching Charger games.

Was Brees ranked 32nd for yds/attempt and dead last for starting qb's with yards in the air? Ponder is, and that's not good or encouraging.

If you want to give Ponder one more starting season, I can understand that, but we need to have a better backup plan then Joe Webb if/when ponder is again mediocre next year.

[Crax]

Until you're convinced... and that's obviously going to vary from person to person. What I usually hear from NFL analysts and experts is that 3 years is the time to takes to develop and evaluate a QB in Ponder's situation (1st round draft pick, rebuilding team, etc.). If I remember correctly, Ron Jaworski even refers to a "three year rule" when discussing QB development.

I'd say that also varies by the player as well. Was he a project when you got him? Is it mistakes or lack of talent? So let's say ponder is average next year and finishes the season right around the middle(say 16th) as far as things like QB rating goes. Do you keep going with him or do you move on?

[Mothman]

I'd say that also varies by the player as well. Was he a project when you got him? Is it mistakes or lack of talent? So let's say ponder is average next year and finishes the season right around the middle(say 16th) as far as things like QB rating goes. Do you keep going with him or do you move on?

I'm not trying to dodge the question but I'd need to know more and actually see what happened to lead to that #16 ranking. Based on the ranking alone and assuming he had a good TD/INT ratio and had played well during the season, I would probably stick with him but honestly, I'd need to know more. I don't think decisions of that sort should be made based on stats or W/L records because football players don't play in a box. The performance of each individual has an impact on those around him.

[Crax]

I'm not trying to dodge the question but I'd need to know more and actually see what happened to lead to that #16 ranking. Based on the ranking alone and assuming he had a good TD/INT ratio and had played well during the season, I would probably stick with him but honestly, I'd need to know more. I don't think decisions of that sort should be made based on stats or W/L records because football players don't play in a box. The performance of each individual has an impact on those around him.

It's all hypothetical, you can tell me what your line is. I'm mostly curious how much value you put on the QB. Lets say average stats, average production, average everything. If you have an average QB, do you decide that's good enough and try to become a great defensive team to get you to the super bowl, or do your cut your losses and try to find the next Manning/Brady etc.

[mondry]

It's all hypothetical, you can tell me what your line is. I'm mostly curious how much value you put on the QB. Lets say average stats, average production, average everything. If you have an average QB, do you decide that's good enough and try to become a great defensive team to get you to the super bowl, or do your cut your losses and try to find the next Manning/Brady etc.

If Ponder was 16th in the league for most important stats like yardage, TDs, INT's, passing rating, and so on I'd be pretty happy with that for his 3rd year with the team still rebuilding. The main reason is the type of offense we run. If Adrian is running for 1800 yards and we get 3400 yards passing (16th place last year) I think we'd be okay. It's not like Drew Brees in NO or Stafford in DET who pretty much have to throw for 5000 yards each year or the team has no chance so can't really compare it to those pass heavy teams.

Realistically I'd want him to be like 10-14th but 16th or so wouldn't be the end of the world, depending like Jim said other circumstances and the "eye" test so to say.

[Cliff]

Never said they were meaningless, but cherry picking drew brees works the same way with failed QB's. But hey, let's talk stats then.

I wasn't cherry picking Brees, he's just the example that came up. There are other successful QBs that have started out rough too ... but I agree that it works both ways.

In Brees case, he really started to shine his 3rd year.

Ponder is currently 32nd by PFF overall QB ranking. I"m sure you'll now say those don't count(which makes no sense since they are all stat based and hey, those aren't meaningless) but I believe them to be more accurate than just NFL rating as it evaluates more things. But, even going by NFL rating, Ponder is 25th.

No ... I'm not arguing that Ponder is doing an awesome job this season. Just that this season won't necessarily define him as a QB and if a team has invested a first round pick into a player it makes sense to give them what is generally agreed as enough time to come into their own.

I already said I don't recall 2001/2002 seasons for Drew Brees. Was he improving at the end of the 02 season? Was he making some big plays at times but correctable mistakes still got him on occasion? Was he completing more than 3 yard passes? I don't really know as I wasn't watching Charger games.

Was Brees ranked 32nd for yds/attempt and dead last for starting qb's with yards in the air? Ponder is, and that's not good or encouraging.

I'm sure he was completing more than 3 yard passes, and so is Ponder. I'm sure he was making some big plays and had some correctable mistakes ... and so does Ponder. Was Brees improving at the end of the 02 season? I'm not sure ... is Ponder improving at the end of this season? I don't know, because the "end of the season" hasn't happened yet. (still 5 games or a quarter of the season to go).

I've said I don't recall them too ... but looking at the stats they appear pretty similar, actually.

Their yds/attempt;
Brees 6.2
Ponder 6.1

yds/game
Brees 205
Ponder 198.7

QBR
Brees 76.9
Ponder 82

TD/INT ratio
Brees 17/16
Ponder 13/9

Ponder still has five games to improve on those or make them worse.

Of course these stats don't prove anything. They don't prove Ponder will have the kind of success Brees had (or any other QB). I just think it's too early to throw in the towel.

If you want to give Ponder one more starting season, I can understand that, but we need to have a better backup plan then Joe Webb if/when ponder is again mediocre next year.

Unless he has a complete breakdown then yeah, I am in the camp that thinks Ponder needs a 3rd season.

We don't need a better back up if Ponder is Mediocre next season, we'll need to use a high round draft pick on a replacement and likely make Ponder the backup. But I imagine that would be in the 2014 draft. The Vikings have plenty of holes to fill in the 2013 draft unless a good QB falls into their laps.

[Mothman]

It's all hypothetical, you can tell me what your line is. I'm mostly curious how much value you put on the QB. Lets say average stats, average production, average everything. If you have an average QB, do you decide that's good enough and try to become a great defensive team to get you to the super bowl, or do your cut your losses and try to find the next Manning/Brady etc.

In that situation, I wouldn't cut my losses in the sense that I'd just release the average QB but I place a high value on the position so if I had an average QB and believed he'd never be better than average, I would definitely be looking for an upgrade.

[Crax]

We don't need a better back up if Ponder is Mediocre next season, we'll need to use a high round draft pick on a replacement and likely make Ponder the backup. But I imagine that would be in the 2014 draft. The Vikings have plenty of holes to fill in the 2013 draft unless a good QB falls into their laps.

I actually said backup plan in that we need to be ready to move on when the time is right, not just go down the current bench. I'm not real sure the vikings should draft a qb this year either as there doesn't seem to be a lot available especially where they are picking unless they can see a surprise guy other teams may be missing on. There does seem to be overlooked guys in recent drafts that may have been better than draft experts thought. Maybe the Vikings can find one of those guys.

I realize we have other holes to fill, but we haven't really even tried to draft/develop much at the qb position over the last while. I didn't realize how much we seem to ignore it, but in the last 10 years, we've drafted 5 qb's. Ponder, Webb, Booty, Thigpen, and Jackson. Only two of those were above the 5th round and some would argue we didn't even draft Webb to use as a qb. You have to go back until 1999 for Culpepper who I'd say was the best QB we've drafted in the last 20 years.

Whether ponder turns into Drew Brees or not, the Vikings need to do a better job with the QB position.

[Cliff]

Ah, I misread about the backup vs. backup PLAN

Whether ponder turns into Drew Brees or not, the Vikings need to do a better job with the QB position.

Definitely. Hopefully they won't be drafting a QB in the first round every 3 years, that would be awesome. I also agree with your point that they have neglected the QB position for too long and we are partially seeing the fruits of that now. The staff really wanted to let Ponder sit on the bench a year or two (they specifically referenced Aaron Rodgers as the model they wanted to follow, it was one of the reasons they took a shot at McNabb).

Like it or not as a fan, trying to get a 1st round QB to pan out is part of the process of fixing the QB situation. Even if he's not doing so hot in his first year starting.