How to Beat the Packers

[VikingLord]

May as well get started on the pregame thread for the upcoming Monday nighter against the Packers.

First, it bears repeating that the Packers, at least statistically, are in the middle of the league on both sides of the ball. They are statistically worse than the Vikings in every aspect of offense and defense, be it passing or rushing or scoring. They've scored less and given up more than the Vikings by a large margin (Packers are +47 on the year while the Vikings are +119). The Packers are 11-3 and in sole possession of the NFC North and will likely win the division regardless of the outcome of the upcoming MNF game due to them getting the Lions for the final game, but this is just not a dominant or intimidating opponent. The Packers are a team that has done just enough to win in the majority of their games, and when they have lost, with the exception of their loss to the Eagles they've gotten crushed. They've been on the plus side of the "bad breaks" all year with multiple instances where they benefited from very questionable calls. This is an opponent, in short, that by all external indicators should have 7-8 wins and be scratching for a wild card and not in the driver's seat for a division title and a home playoff game.

With all of that said, the Packers are a dangerous team. Their offense is hugely inconsistent, but when they are moving the ball well, they can pile up a lot of points quickly. This tends to happen early in their wins, though. They seem to come out of the gate strong or not at all, so the first key to the upcoming game for the Vikings is denying the Packers early. In the earlier game between the two teams the Vikings conceded 21 points in just over the first quarter. While the bleeding was stanched after that, the hole they had dug for themselves proved to be too steep to climb out of. That can't happen again. The Vikings defense must hold in the opening quarter.

In order to hold, the Vikings must do two things well. First, they have to contain the Packer run game. I thought the Vikings defense did a fantastic job of containing the Chargers and Lions run game on 1st and 2nd downs. That forced both offenses into the type of 3rd down situations that Mike Zimmer's defense thrived on in 2017 and 2018. Sure, the Packers may go to the air on 1st and 2nd downs. That is possible. But more than likely they'll see if they can run it, and the Vikings must step up to that challenge and limit those early down yards on the ground.

The second thing the Vikings defense must do is get pressure on Rodgers. Rodgers is going to wing the ball. He's done it his whole career and even more so this season. The Vikings have had coverage issues all year against the deep ball, so I fully expect the Packers to be eager to test them deep as well, probably early and often and even on 1st and 2nd down. But if the Vikings do manage to get the Packers into 3rd-and-long, Rodgers has to be contained and pressured. In the two lopsided losses the Packers had this year against the Chargers and 49ers, 3rd down pass pressure was key to disrupting Rodgers and limiting big plays downfield by the Packers. Don't let Rodgers slide in the pocket. Make him escape out the back. Do not let him start running. Collapse the pocket and get him under consistent duress, and the coverage issues down the field won't be nearly as big a factor as they will otherwise be if Rodgers gets time.

On defense, the Packers are gamblers, especially in the secondary. They are aggressive. They want to come up the field and be disruptive. Their DBs like to jump routes and be unpredictable. They are not fundamentally sound in terms of technique, though. They will miss tackles and drop assignments. Their gambling nature is high-risk, high reward, so the way to beat that is to maximize the risk. The Vikings have an embarrassment of offensive talent. Even if Cook is not able to play, the Vikings have Mattison and Boone and Abdullah at RB, 3 TEs who can both block and catch, and with Thielen back and Bisi Johnson playing as well as he has, 3 solid WRs. The offensive line has been pretty solid. The QB has played very well. If I'm Mike Zimmer and Kevin Stefanski, I want to be the ones dictating the game to the Packer defense. I do that by using their aggressiveness against them. I line up and call plays that look like ones I've run before and ones the Packers will expect, but then I break a WR off deep instead of short, or I throw in some misdirection. I try to goad the Packers into gambling. I want them to do it, because my offense will be ready for it. I'm the coach and offense that wants to run up the score early.

If there is a single key to this upcoming game, it's going to be to avoid execution mistakes. The offense can't turn it over or hand the Packers short fields. The defense has to be disciplined, especially on 3rd down and get off the field. They can't afford to hand the Packers a fresh set of downs they didn't earn.

[Maelstrom88]

Last time they played them the Vikings ran all over them. They need to do that again and utilize deep playaction double moves off it.

On defense you have to contain Aaron in the pocket and get push up the middle.

[CharVike]

Don't let them get up on us. Control the ball and don't turn it over. Make this a short game. That's the biggest key TOs. If we play clean and don't do stupid stuff we should win because we are at home. Plus I don't see them going to scramble mode if they get behind. That coach can't take a chance on losing Rodgers for a nothing game. However I've been wrong before and they may treat it as a must win. No turnovers and we will be golden.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Don't let them get up on us. Control the ball and don't turn it over. Make this a short game. That's the biggest key TOs. If we play clean and don't do stupid stuff we should win because we are at home. Plus I don't see them going to scramble mode if they get behind. That coach can't take a chance on losing Rodgers for a nothing game. However I've been wrong before and they may treat it as a must win. No turnovers and we will be golden.

Again, it's far from a nothing game for GB. Too much at stake in the playoffs.

I do agree with not letting them get up on us. This defense needs to come ready and hit them in the mouth early. We cant go down 21-0 like last time. I can guarantee they are going to test us deep if they've watched any film at all on these DBs. Our defensive backs have no idea how to get their head turned around and track the ball on deep passes.

[Dames]

Again, it's far from a nothing game for GB. Too much at stake in the playoffs.

I do agree with not letting them get up on us. This defense needs to come ready and hit them in the mouth early. We cant go down 21-0 like last time. I can guarantee they are going to test us deep if they've watched any film at all on these DBs. Our defensive backs have no idea how to get their head turned around and track the ball on deep passes.

Correct, GB has a lot to play for still. Home-field advantage is really important to them. I think we're going to smash them though.

[CharVike]

Again, it's far from a nothing game for GB. Too much at stake in the playoffs.

I do agree with not letting them get up on us. This defense needs to come ready and hit them in the mouth early. We cant go down 21-0 like last time. I can guarantee they are going to test us deep if they've watched any film at all on these DBs. Our defensive backs have no idea how to get their head turned around and track the ball on deep passes.

Correct, GB has a lot to play for still. Home-field advantage is really important to them. I think we're going to smash them though.

You guys are correct they do have something to play for. We just need to take care of ourselves and keep winning. That beat down against the Chargers was a nice showing. We need to keep it going.

[halfgiz]

The first game
Cook ran for over 150 yards and I think we had almost 200 yards rushing.
Downfall was Cousins he had a QBR of 50 and threw the dreaded int.
My thoughts are if we can run on them and Cousins plays a good game it should be a good win.
The refs didn't help us much in that first meeting either.

[Dmizzle0]

The refs didn't help us much in that first meeting either.

Tell me about it! It always seems like the Packers get away with a blatant bad call/no call. They just had one with the Bears.

Vikings have to get ahead early so in case any of that bs happens again.

[TSonn]

I actually think this game matters more to GB than it does for us. We have very little chance of moving from the #6 seed right now while the Packers could end up #1 seed or #6 seed.

Obviously I hope we win, but our postseason seeding was pretty much pre-determined after our loss to the Seahawks.

[J. Kapp 11]

Last time we played the Packers, we rushed for 198 yards and lost because our defense put us in a huge hole and Kirk Cousins was pretty awful.

If we rush for 198 this game, we'll win by 3 touchdowns. Our play action game is absolutely lethal. Cousins has a 136 passer rating off play action. Green Bay will have no answer defensively if we rush the ball effectively. They'll bite on the play fake, our receivers will burn them, and Cousins will deliver.

But if we put up a clinker of a run game, we're gonna have trouble. Green Bay is very suspect on defense. We have to take advantage.

Defensively, I think we have to be aggressive and blitz more than usual. Make Rodgers uncomfortable back there. He's been pretty bad against pressure, and I think it's because his receivers (outside of Adams) are pretty inexperienced and not always where Rodgers wants them to be. Kendricks, Barr, Smith and Harris are going to be huge, as Rodgers likes to throw to Aaron Jones and Jimmy Graham.

Green Bay hasn't played a really solid game since Dallas. We should have our way with them at home. We'll see. Wish Cook were healthy.

[VikingLord]

Defensively, I think we have to be aggressive and blitz more than usual. Make Rodgers uncomfortable back there. He's been pretty bad against pressure, and I think it's because his receivers (outside of Adams) are pretty inexperienced and not always where Rodgers wants them to be. Kendricks, Barr, Smith and Harris are going to be huge, as Rodgers likes to throw to Aaron Jones and Jimmy Graham.

In the first game I thought it was the Packer run game that both set up their initial scoring outburst as well as allowed them to run out most of the clock late. In the middle part of that game as the Vikings clawed back and the Packer offense shut down I thought the Vikings did a much better job of limiting the Packers on the ground.

The key to limiting Rodgers IMHO is getting him into 3rd-and-6-or-more situations consistently, especially if the Vikings can get out in front on the scoreboard.

[J. Kapp 11]

Interesting, but Vegas is pretty much begging people to bet on Green Bay. The Vikings are a 5.5-point favorite.

Hope Vegas is right.

[Grashopa]

I thought this was pretty good, from an article that includes how the packers plan to stop Kirk and make him uncomfortable

"Affect him," Packers OLB Za'Darius Smith told me Thursday, "as far as getting him out the pocket, moving him around, getting pressure, getting hits. If he can't see his first read, hopefully we can get there as pass rushers."

It's like they are trying to do the same thing as us. Get Kirk moving and out of the pocket since that is where he is at his best (after a play action roll out)

[Texas Vike]

Interesting, but Vegas is pretty much begging people to bet on Green Bay. The Vikings are a 5.5-point favorite.

Hope Vegas is right.

I noticed that too. I'm surprised it's not more like 2.5 or 3.5, but I have to admit that I'm not versed in Vegas' odds. Monday can't get here soon enough!

[808vikingsfan]

I actually think this game matters more to GB than it does for us. We have very little chance of moving from the #6 seed right now while the Packers could end up #1 seed or #6 seed.

Obviously I hope we win, but our postseason seeding was pretty much pre-determined after our loss to the Seahawks.

agree. In fact, I think this will be a good test to see where this Vikings team is mentally. GB definitely has more to play for.