Why Keep Carlson?

[Dark]

He adds nothing to the team. Waste of roster and cap space. He only had a few receptions and since we have Rudolph, there really is no need to keep him IMO. Any upsides of keeping him on the roster?

[Mothman]

He adds nothing to the team. Waste of roster and cap space. He only had a few receptions and since we have Rudolph, there really is no need to keep him IMO. Any upsides of keeping him on the roster?

Sure...

— Depth counts.

— Carlson's season last year was atypical for him so there's a reasonable chance he can be quite a bit more productive next season, especially if he stays healthy.

— If I understand correctly, it would cost them roughly the same amount to keep him as to cut him so why not at least keep him around well into the preseason and see how he performs? If he's going to take up the cap space either way, give him another chance to show what he can do and if cutting him to free up the roster spot seems like the right move, do it when it has to be done (during the cutdown period).

[J. Kapp 11]

For the ninety-ninth time ...

John Carlson has guaranteed money in 2013 -- $1.2 million of his scheduled $2.9 million salary is guaranteed. His cap number is higher than that, so he IS a cap hit if we cut him. In fact, he's a $3 million cap hit in 2014 if we cut him AFTER the 2013 season.

It makes no sense to cut him now. If nothing else, he's depth.

[Dark]

Thanks Jim, your always there when someone needs help

[HardcoreVikesFan]

Meh, I am ok with giving the guy another shot next year. He did block well this season. Who knows? Maybe he comes on this coming season?

[PurpleMustReign]

Remember, depth is huge... at the beginning of the season we thought we would be good at CB, but then ew had injuries and stuff.

[J. Kapp 11]

Been doing some research on the NFL salary cap. The key term is "dead money." That's money that counts against the cap for players who are no longer on the team (not necessarily being paid, though).

So, even if the Vikings cut Carlson prior to the season, they take a $4.2 million cap hit for 2013. That's the sum of his $2.9 million base salary, his prorated signing bonus of $1.25 million, and incentive bonuses totaling $500,000. They would only actually have to PAY him $1.2 million in guaranteed money. That sounds bad, but it gets worse.

He also costs the team a minimum of $1.25 million per year in cap space for 2014 through 2016, even though the Vikings wouldn't have to pay him a dime. That's his $5 million bonus, amortized over the five years of his deal. When you sign a player, his prorated bonus count against the cap for the duration of his contract, even if you're not paying him. A lot of teams these days are paying minimal or no signing bonuses, adopting a pay-as-you-go approach, putting all the guaranteed money into salary instead of bonus. Vincent Jackson, for example, got no signing bonus, but plenty of guaranteed money in front-loaded salary. Smart teams are front-loading big contracts with minimal bonuses, getting the guaranteed money out of the way while the player is still relatively useful (see Peyton Manning, whose cash number this year was about $30 million ... cap hits will be much less in the remaining years). For the most part, the Vikings did this with Carlson, getting the guaranteed salary portion of his contract out of the way in the first two years.

Carlson's minimum cap hit is set for the duration of his contract, based on his signing bonus (prorated over the 5 years of the deal) and $4.1 million in guaranteed salary, paid over 2012 and 2013.

Assuming Carlson remains a bust, the question becomes: At what point does his cap hit actually hurt the team less than his salary? The experts say that for many players who underperform, that's right before the last year of their deal. But when you consider the nearly $8 million the Vikings actually paid Carlson for his 8 catches in 2012, he might be so severe a bust that you cut him loose and just absorb the $1.25 million cap hit for the next four years.

Bottom line: Cutting a player DOES NOT completely free up cap space to pay someone else. That makes the decision of whether to cut a player before the end of his contract a lot more difficult than it seems on the surface.

[Eli]

The way I see it, it's pretty simple.

Carlson's contract guarantees $9.1M: his $5M signing bonus, all of his $2.9M 2012 salary and $1.2M of his $2.9M salary in 2013. He also has $100K workout bonuses in each year of his contract, and we can assume he earned it in 2012 and will also do so in 2013. If they cut him after one season, they'll end up having paid him $9.2M. Keep him another year and they'll end up paying $11M.

So, do you keep him around for another season and pay $1.8M for the chance to see if he has anything? I can't see why not.



Edit: corrected total

[J. Kapp 11]

The way I see it, it's pretty simple.

Carlson's contract guarantees $9.1M: his $5M signing bonus, all of his $2.9M 2012 salary and $1.2M of his $2.9M salary in 2013. He also has $100K workout bonuses in each year of his contract, and we can assume he earned it in 2012 and will also do so in 2013. If they cut him after one season, they'll end up having paying him $9.2M. Keep him another year and they'll end up paying $10M.

So, do you keep him around for another season and pay $1.8M for the chance to see if he has anything? I can't see why not.

I agree completely.

That being said, I can see why Vikings fans are upset. The Vikings paid him $7.9 million in 2012 for 8 catches. Hell, that upsets me.

[CalVike]

I agree completely.

That being said, I can see why Vikings fans are upset. The Vikings paid him $7.9 million in 2012 for 8 catches. Hell, that upsets me.

Stunningly stupid signing, at that price , of a local boy with a devastating injury history. GM Spielman's biggest whiff. But keep him as you say, no financial downside to his undeserved roster spot!

[PurpleKoolaid]

To remind us Spielman knows NOTHING about FA receivers?

[Purple bruise]

The Viking organization is fortunate to have such a competent GM.
http://www.vikings.com/team/staff/rick- ... b7daf8b07c

[Mothman]

I agree completely.

That being said, I can see why Vikings fans are upset. The Vikings paid him $7.9 million in 2012 for 8 catches. Hell, that upsets me.

I'm betting it upsets Carlson himself. He can't be happy with how the season went for him and I'm sure the Vikings aren't either. Hopefully, he'll be much better and much more productive this year.

[losperros]

I agree completely.

That being said, I can see why Vikings fans are upset. The Vikings paid him $7.9 million in 2012 for 8 catches. Hell, that upsets me.

I agree with both of you. That said, can we be upset with Carlson because of the deal the Vikings gave him? If he's not trying, I guess so. If he's trying but not performing, then it's one of those crap-shoot deals that didn't pan out. As Jim said, Carlson is probably upset about the season too.

I'm hoping that Carlson can step it up next season. Who knows? Maybe he wasn't all that healthy last season and we haven't seen his best yet.

[mansquatch]

He was injured early on. Not to bash on Ponder, but I'm sure his development curve also played a part.

My guess is given the structure of his contract and CAP hit, his make or break season will be 2013.