PHP's "Draft Day is almost here" Mock

[CharVike]

This is one of the goofiest takes you have ever had.

Super Bowl champ overrated...

Team doesn't trust Russel fricken Wilson putting the game on his back...

I could care less that he’s a SB champ. Nick Foles is a SB champ. Does that means he’s legit? No. I’m saying from a pure passing standpoint, yeah I think Wilson is overrated. No denying his athleticism or anything, I just don’t think he’s a great passer. He’s got the arm strength but has been an inaccurate passer most of his career. Russell Wilson is successful because of his athletic ability more than his passing ability. Not looking to argue it, just my take

You hit the nail on the head. His entire game revolves around his movement.

[MrPurplenGold]

I could care less that he’s a SB champ. Nick Foles is a SB champ. Does that means he’s legit? No. I’m saying from a pure passing standpoint, yeah I think Wilson is overrated. No denying his athleticism or anything, I just don’t think he’s a great passer. He’s got the arm strength but has been an inaccurate passer most of his career. Russell Wilson is successful because of his athletic ability more than his passing ability. Not looking to argue it, just my take

While I understand that you may believe he is overrated, to say that he is inaccurate would be a misrepresentation of his abilities as a passer. He has a career completion percentage over 64% and almost 8 yards per completion. Thats on par with Aaron Rogers and better than Tom Brady.

[StumpHunter]

I could care less that he’s a SB champ. Nick Foles is a SB champ. Does that means he’s legit? No. I’m saying from a pure passing standpoint, yeah I think Wilson is overrated. No denying his athleticism or anything, I just don’t think he’s a great passer. He’s got the arm strength but has been an inaccurate passer most of his career. Russell Wilson is successful because of his athletic ability more than his passing ability. Not looking to argue it, just my take

While I understand that you may believe he is overrated, to say that he is inaccurate would be a misrepresentation of his abilities as a passer. He has a career completion percentage over 64% and almost 8 yards per completion. Thats on par with Aaron Rogers and better than Tom Brady.

Facts on logic mean nothing compared to some internet blogs that say he is overrated.

[mansquatch]

PHP I'm getting to this late, sorry.

As always, I appreciate the work you put into this, it is always one of the most detailed posts of the entire season.

These are my general thoughts on the process:

1.) This could be the year they take OL early, but there are new signs (Kubiak's reputation) and lots of history that say they won't. That being said, the need at Guard is obvious.

2.) Because of #1, I wonder if they might parlay the perception into a draft day deal(s)? I think a trade is very possible this year even more than would be "Spielman Normal."

3.) One outcome that I think is likely is that their first two picks will go to DT and RB. (Probably in that order.) I think they are fools if they think Cook will suddenly give them a full season as a starter. For that reason, I think RB is a big need. This also plays into the HC's desire for a potent rushing attack.

4.) The DL class is very strong this year, I suspect they are going to value adding talent to the position.

5.) There are some intriguing TE out there. That could be a move to save cap space in the long run. It wouldn't shock me if this position went early.

Lots of ways it could all shake out.

[Pondering Her Percy]

While I understand that you may believe he is overrated, to say that he is inaccurate would be a misrepresentation of his abilities as a passer. He has a career completion percentage over 64% and almost 8 yards per completion. Thats on par with Aaron Rogers and better than Tom Brady.

Facts on logic mean nothing compared to some internet blogs that say he is overrated.

I mean I say agree to disagree, I’m done with the conversation, moving on and then you have to post that? But yeah, all I’m looking at is blogs.....keep telling yourself that

[Pondering Her Percy]

PHP I'm getting to this late, sorry.

As always, I appreciate the work you put into this, it is always one of the most detailed posts of the entire season.

These are my general thoughts on the process:

1.) This could be the year they take OL early, but there are new signs (Kubiak's reputation) and lots of history that say they won't. That being said, the need at Guard is obvious.

2.) Because of #1, I wonder if they might parlay the perception into a draft day deal(s)? I think a trade is very possible this year even more than would be "Spielman Normal."

3.) One outcome that I think is likely is that their first two picks will go to DT and RB. (Probably in that order.) I think they are fools if they think Cook will suddenly give them a full season as a starter. For that reason, I think RB is a big need. This also plays into the HC's desire for a potent rushing attack.

4.) The DL class is very strong this year, I suspect they are going to value adding talent to the position.

5.) There are some intriguing TE out there. That could be a move to save cap space in the long run. It wouldn't shock me if this position went early.

Lots of ways it could all shake out.

Thanks man! Agree with everything although I will add that yes they are going to go RB, but they are going to be able to fetch a solid #2 in the 4th-7th round. Runningbacks are going to last a long time in this draft and the value runs deep. Similar to guard. I hope we don’t pull the trigger too early there because I don’t really think we need too. The difference between a 2nd round RB and a 5th round RB is minimal if you ask me

[VikingLord]

Facts on logic mean nothing compared to some internet blogs that say he is overrated.

I mean I say agree to disagree, I’m done with the conversation, moving on and then you have to post that? But yeah, all I’m looking at is blogs.....keep telling yourself that

I don't think this is really a subjective debate, is it?

The claim is that Russell Wilson is not a top-tier QB. Is that supported by facts, or just a matter of opinion?

One factual way to assess QBs is by QB rating among active NFL QBs:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... active.htm

If you look at that, Russell Wilson is 2nd on that list at 100.3, just behind Aaron Rodgers at 103.1 and ahead of notable veterans like Drew Brees (97.7), Tom Brady (97.6), and Phillip Rivers (95.6)

And just for reference, Kirk Cousins comes in next at 95.0, so by this measure, he's a top 10 NFL QB among active players.

This link on the same site gives a lot more detail about Wilson compared to peers in a ton of different categories as well:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... lsRu00.htm

Scroll towards the bottom of that page and you'll see them, including awards, number of pro bowl nominations, etc, and his relative rank in the particular category against both active QBs and all time.

Wilson isn't tops in every category, of course, and depending on the particular category or categories you want to look at, an argument can probably be made that he is not elite or even top 10 in that particular measure. For example, his passing yards/game average among active QBs puts him at #19. He has a few other categories where he ranks near the middle of his peers as well.

But he has more categories where he is top 10 or even top 5 among active players. For example, passing TDs, he ranks 10th and has 5 seasons in the top 10. In terms of passes intercepted, he's had the fewest among active players (he's ranked 63rd out of 63, with a lower ranking being a positive in the way that category is considered). In the pick six category, he's had 3 (as compared to Cousins 10). His yards per pass attempt puts him at 5th among active QBs.

My point is, the argument that Wilson is just average (if that is the argument being made. If not, I apologize if I'm misunderstanding it) just isn't supported by the stats. He's a very good QB, and, in some measures, even a great one. He's good enough that the team that drafted him made him the highest paid player in NFL history in order to keep him. I can't remember the last time the Vikings had someone at QB that I would have felt justified a move like that.

Further, his teams in Seattle have enjoyed success, including a Superbowl victory with him at the helm. Once again, this is something I'd love to see happen with any QB at the helm in Minnesota, much less one drafted and developed by the Vikings.

[Pondering Her Percy]

I mean I say agree to disagree, I’m done with the conversation, moving on and then you have to post that? But yeah, all I’m looking at is blogs.....keep telling yourself that

I don't think this is really a subjective debate, is it?

The claim is that Russell Wilson is not a top-tier QB. Is that supported by facts, or just a matter of opinion?

One factual way to assess QBs is by QB rating among active NFL QBs:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... active.htm

If you look at that, Russell Wilson is 2nd on that list at 100.3, just behind Aaron Rodgers at 103.1 and ahead of notable veterans like Drew Brees (97.7), Tom Brady (97.6), and Phillip Rivers (95.6)

And just for reference, Kirk Cousins comes in next at 95.0, so by this measure, he's a top 10 NFL QB among active players.

This link on the same site gives a lot more detail about Wilson compared to peers in a ton of different categories as well:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... lsRu00.htm

Scroll towards the bottom of that page and you'll see them, including awards, number of pro bowl nominations, etc, and his relative rank in the particular category against both active QBs and all time.

Wilson isn't tops in every category, of course, and depending on the particular category or categories you want to look at, an argument can probably be made that he is not elite or even top 10 in that particular measure. For example, his passing yards/game average among active QBs puts him at #19. He has a few other categories where he ranks near the middle of his peers as well.

But he has more categories where he is top 10 or even top 5 among active players. For example, passing TDs, he ranks 10th and has 5 seasons in the top 10. In terms of passes intercepted, he's had the fewest among active players (he's ranked 63rd out of 63, with a lower ranking being a positive in the way that category is considered). In the pick six category, he's had 3 (as compared to Cousins 10). His yards per pass attempt puts him at 5th among active QBs.

My point is, the argument that Wilson is just average (if that is the argument being made. If not, I apologize if I'm misunderstanding it) just isn't supported by the stats. He's a very good QB, and, in some measures, even a great one. He's good enough that the team that drafted him made him the highest paid player in NFL history in order to keep him. I can't remember the last time the Vikings had someone at QB that I would have felt justified a move like that.

Further, his teams in Seattle have enjoyed success, including a Superbowl victory with him at the helm. Once again, this is something I'd love to see happen with any QB at the helm in Minnesota, much less one drafted and developed by the Vikings.

No I never once said he was average. I said I thought he was overrated as a pure passer. I think he’s blown up to more than he really is. And I said that he was not an elite QB. Good yes, but not in the same category of Brady or Mahomes IMO

[VikingLord]

I don't think this is really a subjective debate, is it?

The claim is that Russell Wilson is not a top-tier QB. Is that supported by facts, or just a matter of opinion?

One factual way to assess QBs is by QB rating among active NFL QBs:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... active.htm

If you look at that, Russell Wilson is 2nd on that list at 100.3, just behind Aaron Rodgers at 103.1 and ahead of notable veterans like Drew Brees (97.7), Tom Brady (97.6), and Phillip Rivers (95.6)

And just for reference, Kirk Cousins comes in next at 95.0, so by this measure, he's a top 10 NFL QB among active players.

This link on the same site gives a lot more detail about Wilson compared to peers in a ton of different categories as well:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... lsRu00.htm

Scroll towards the bottom of that page and you'll see them, including awards, number of pro bowl nominations, etc, and his relative rank in the particular category against both active QBs and all time.

Wilson isn't tops in every category, of course, and depending on the particular category or categories you want to look at, an argument can probably be made that he is not elite or even top 10 in that particular measure. For example, his passing yards/game average among active QBs puts him at #19. He has a few other categories where he ranks near the middle of his peers as well.

But he has more categories where he is top 10 or even top 5 among active players. For example, passing TDs, he ranks 10th and has 5 seasons in the top 10. In terms of passes intercepted, he's had the fewest among active players (he's ranked 63rd out of 63, with a lower ranking being a positive in the way that category is considered). In the pick six category, he's had 3 (as compared to Cousins 10). His yards per pass attempt puts him at 5th among active QBs.

My point is, the argument that Wilson is just average (if that is the argument being made. If not, I apologize if I'm misunderstanding it) just isn't supported by the stats. He's a very good QB, and, in some measures, even a great one. He's good enough that the team that drafted him made him the highest paid player in NFL history in order to keep him. I can't remember the last time the Vikings had someone at QB that I would have felt justified a move like that.

Further, his teams in Seattle have enjoyed success, including a Superbowl victory with him at the helm. Once again, this is something I'd love to see happen with any QB at the helm in Minnesota, much less one drafted and developed by the Vikings.

No I never once said he was average. I said I thought he was overrated as a pure passer. I think he’s blown up to more than he really is. And I said that he was not an elite QB. Good yes, but not in the same category of Brady or Mahomes IMO

Which of the QB stat categories tracked on that website do you think best measures a QB as a "pure passer"?

[Pondering Her Percy]

No I never once said he was average. I said I thought he was overrated as a pure passer. I think he’s blown up to more than he really is. And I said that he was not an elite QB. Good yes, but not in the same category of Brady or Mahomes IMO

Which of the QB stat categories tracked on that website do you think best measures a QB as a "pure passer"?

They don’t measure it. I look at it more as the eye test. I can guarantee that Wilson’s completions off of a scramble or outside of the pocket crush anyone else’s. When I say a pure passer I’m referring to accuracy, overall arm talent, ability to stand in the pocket, makes reads, etc. Wilson doesn’t do a great job of standing tall in the pocket and delivering. So these numbers tell me nothing. How many times does he scramble and eventually a WR loses his man and he dumps it off to them? Where’s the measurement for standing tall in the pocket and delivering a strike? I don’t believe there is. That’s my point. If you have great scrambling ability, corners can’t cover forever. It’s going to result in much easier completions.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Interesting take by PFF Vikings:

Over the past 3 draft seasons, it can be seen that the Minnesota Vikings have some correlation between their first selection (Treadwell Cook Hughes) and the number of visits players have had with the team.

That the position with many visits (WR 2016, RB 2017, WR/LB/CB 2018, and OT 2019) and a PFF grade greater than 85 will be the first selection for the Vikings.
In 2019 based on draft eligible OTs who meet this criteria the closest are:
Big Board Rank:
Dalton Risner 19th
Andre Dillard 13th
Jonah Williams 4th

As we are one week away from the draft Vikings fan should be excited if one of these three players are drafted.
Based on Draft Year and players with >220 snaps their ranks are:

PFF Grade
Andre Dillard 83.4 (4th)
Jonah Williams 89.2 (2nd)
Dalton Risner 90.7 (1st)

Pass Block Grade
Jonah Williams 88.6 (8th)
Dalton Risner 90.6 (4th)
Andre Dillard 91.9 (2nd)

Run Block Grade
Andre Dillard 71.8 (19th)
Jonah Williams 83.6 (2nd)
Dalton Risner 85.4 (1st)

Pressures Allowed
Andre Dillard 13 (46th)
Jonah Williams 12 (38th)
Dalton Risner 5 (7th)

[Pondering Her Percy]

Also FWIW, Giants GM David Gettleman was questioned a million times today about if they want to pick a QB at 6 or if a few QBs are gone, will they still take one at 6? His response....

I will not force a pick. You can’t draft for need. You get screwed every time

Exactly my thoughts and it’s why I keep saying, if the BPA on our board isn’t an offensive lineman, don’t take an offensive lineman. We will have plenty of opportunities to draft offensive line in the 2nd round on

[S197]

Posted in the Sirius thread Risner would be my top OL pick with Dillard second (assuming the consensus top guys are gone). I have a feeling Risner will be gone but the odds Dillard is around seem decent. Absent something odd like an Oliver falling, I think one of those is the pick. If both are gone, I could see Hockenson if he's around.

I'm hoping the Vikings aren't enticed by Sweat, who I think will be available but not worth the 18th pick. We don't need a passs rusher and his health concerns me.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Posted in the Sirius thread Risner would be my top OL pick with Dillard second (assuming the consensus top guys are gone). I have a feeling Risner will be gone but the odds Dillard is around seem decent. Absent something odd like an Oliver falling, I think one of those is the pick. If both are gone, I could see Hockenson if he's around.

I'm hoping the Vikings aren't enticed by Sweat, who I think will be available but not worth the 18th pick. We don't need a passs rusher and his health concerns me.

You can always use a pass rusher. And Griffens time is dwindling. Sweat is another Hunter IMO. If he’s there, I would be mad if we passed on him. Pairing Sweat with Hunter would create one of the best up and coming DE combos in the nfl if you ask me. There’s no doubt they are looking into pass rushers. They nearly traded Griff.

As for Risner, I think Dillard will go ahead of Risner. Risner should be there at 18 and I think ford might too. I think Dillard will be the one to go before either of them. That’s the big question, if the two top guys are available, who do you take, Ford or Risner? I don’t think you could go wrong with either.

The defensive players I’m keeping my eye on are Sweat, Oliver and the Clemson trio. I don’t see us drafting Lawrence because he’s more like a Linval type DL. But Ferrell and Wilkins are hard to pass on as well. Analysts said today they think Ferrell is the most NFL ready pass rusher in the draft. Wilkins would be an immediate plug and play at 3 tech as well as Oliver. And sweat is just a physical freak that Andre Patterson would work wonders with. IMO I believe that’s why the eagles ended up winning a SB. Because they had an abundance of pass rushers that offensive lines couldn’t contain. Imagine Hunter, Griff, Sweat and Weatherly?! If Zim ran a NASCAR package with those 4 on 3rd down, he’d never have to send a blitz! Either way, pass rushers are like solid CBs. They are hard to come by. If Montez Sweat is staring you in the face at 18, you don’t pass that up

[PurpleKoolaid]

Posted in the Sirius thread Risner would be my top OL pick with Dillard second (assuming the consensus top guys are gone). I have a feeling Risner will be gone but the odds Dillard is around seem decent. Absent something odd like an Oliver falling, I think one of those is the pick. If both are gone, I could see Hockenson if he's around.

I'm hoping the Vikings aren't enticed by Sweat, who I think will be available but not worth the 18th pick. We don't need a passs rusher and his health concerns me.

I dont think Risner, Dillard or Ford will be around at 18. But if they are, they would most likely be BPA. I agree on Sweat as well, I think theres just as good of talent in the 2nd.